Tigrayan peace process

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A woman sits on her bed in a classroom turned into a IDP camp in central Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, June 4, 2021. Like her, 200,000 people are displaced after fleeing the battles in Tigray. (Yan Boechat/VOA)

The Tigrayan peace process is a series of proposals, meetings, agreements and actions that aim to resolve the Tigray War.[1] Around 9 November 2020, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and elected Tigray Region leader Debretsion Gebremichael asked the African Union to stop the war and requested peace negotiations; federal Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed refused to negotiate.[2][3] On 25–27 November, a trio of former African presidents appointed by African Union chair Cyril Ramaphosa visited Ethiopia with the aim of mediating;[4] they met Abiy and representatives of the Transitional Government of Tigray that officially replaced the elected TPLF Tigrayan government.[5] An emergency Intergovernmental Authority on Development summit of East African heads of government and state met on 20 December 2020 in Djibouti, resulting in a statement of support for the Ethiopian constitutional order and humanitarian access to Tigray Region.[6]

On 19 February 2021, the TPLF expressed its wish for peace negotiations, declaring eight preconditions for the negotiations.[7] On 20 February, the National Congress of Great Tigray (Baytona), Tigray Independence Party (TIP) and Salsay Weyane Tigray (SAWET) published six demands to the international community that closely overlapped with the TPLF's pre-conditions.[8] Seb Hidri made similar demands on 21 February 2021, adding demands for a United Nations human rights monitoring and peacekeeping force and a UNESCO-led investigation of the destruction of cultural heritage.[9] In late June 2021, the Tigray Defence Forces gained control of Mekelle, the federal government announced a unilateral ceasefire, and the restored government of Tigray announced seven pre-conditions for a ceasefire.[10]

Background[]

Main articles: Tigray War and Timeline of the Tigray War § Pre-war preparations

A conflict between the goals of centralised versus federalised political power between the federal Ethiopian government headed by prime minister Abiy Ahmed and the former dominating party of Ethiopia, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), that retained power in the Tigray Region, emerged in 2019 and 2020.[1] The TPLF dug trenches in a village in June in preparation for a possible war.[11] Abiy, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki and Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo) held a Tripartite Agreement meeting in Asmara on 27 January 2020,[12] Abiy visited an Eritrean military base in July 2020, and Isaias visited the Harar Meda Airport Ethiopian air base in Bishoftu in October 2020. Martin Plaut suggested that the meetings were used by the three leaders to discuss and prepare strategy for the Tigray War.[13] Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Amhara Region special forces deployed on the south border of Tigray Region in mid-October 2020[1] and ENDF troops were flown to Eritrea to prepare a joint attack on the TPLF by the ENDF and the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF).[13] On the night of 3–4 November 2020, the federal military Northern Command bases in the Tigray Region were attacked by the TPLF, and the ENDF responded militarily.[1]

The war continued into February 2021, including military operations, war crimes, sexual violence and looting,[14] with casualty estimates in February by the TPLF and its allies of 52,000 civilians[15] and 100,000 soldiers killed.[16] On 6 February, the United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, stated that the "risk of atrocity crimes" would remain high and risked worsening unless "urgent measures [were] immediately taken".[17]

November 2020: African Union[]

Around 9 November 2020, the TPLF leader and elected head of the Tigray Region, Debretsion Gebremichael, requested the African Union to intervene to stop the war, requesting peace negotiations. Debretsion described Abiy's government as illegitimate.[2][3]

Abiy argued that the TPLF's holding of the 2020 election was illegal and that the TPLF had started preparing for war since 2018, organising and drafting militias. He stated that Ethiopia would manage the situation on its own. Moussa Faki, chairperson of the African Union Commission, "urged" the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments to negotiate. On 10 November, Abiy refused the proposed dialogue.[2][3]

On 20 November, Ethiopian president Sahle-Work Zewde visited South Africa as an envoy of Abiy to discuss the war with Cyril Ramaphosa, president of South Africa and chair of the African Union. As a result of the visit, Ramaphosa appointed three former presidents, Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of Liberia and Kgalema Motlanthe of South Africa as Special Envoys to "mediate between the parties in the conflict", to "engage with all sides to the conflict", with the aim of obtaining a ceasefire and "creating conditions for an inclusive national dialogue to resolve all issues that led to the conflict". The mediation proposal was motivated by the spirit of "African solutions for African problems."[18][4] Abiy immediately described the news of planned mediation by the envoys between the federal government and the former Tigray government as "fake".[19] The three envoys visited Ethiopia during 25–27 November and talked with Abiy and representatives of the Transitional Government of Tigray that aimed to replace the TPLF government of Tigray. Ramaphosa published a summary of Abiy's views on the war and Abiy's "commitment to dialogue" in the official summary of the envoys' visit.[5]

December: Intergovernmental Authority on Development[]

On 13 December, Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok stated that he had agreed with Abiy to hold an emergency meeting of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development grouping together seven East African countries. Hamdok arrived in Addis Ababa the same day, as the first foreign leader to visit the city since the Tigray War started.[20] The IGAD summit was held on 20 December in Djibouti,[21] with an official statement "reaffirm[ing] the primacy of constitutional order, stability and unity of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia" and "welcom[ing]" a 29 November agreement on "'unimpeded, sustained and secure access' for humanitarian support."[6] Abiy "expressed [his] deepest gratitude" to the IGAD leaders at the meeting for supporting the federal government.[22]

February 2021: Tigrayan peace conditions[]

On 19 February 2021, of the TPLF, stated that the deposed Tigrayan government wanted peace negotiations, setting eight preconditions.[7] The following day, three minority Tigrayan parties, the National Congress of Great Tigray (Baytona), Tigray Independence Party (TIP) and Salsay Weyane Tigray (SAWET) published six demands to the international community that closely overlapped with the TPLF's pre-conditions.[8] The pre-conditions and demands were:

  1. the EDF should leave Tigray Region (Baytona/TIP/SAWET)[8] and an independent international body would have to confirm the departure (TPLF);[7]
  2. Tigray would have to be "secured" and the "enemies" partitioning Tigray (TPLF), or Amhara militia and the ENDF (Baytona/TIP/SAWET), would have to leave Tigray Region (TPLF);[8][7]
  3. the Transitional Government would have to be replaced by the elected administration returning (TPLF);[7]
  4. an international investigative body would have to be created for investigating the war crimes and become functional (TPLF+Baytona/TIP/SAWET);[7][8]
  5. full unrestrained access to Tigray would have to be given to journalists and international humanitarian agencies (TPLF+Baytona/TIP/SAWET);[7][8]
  6. an international investigative body would have to investigate the looting and destruction of the war (TPLF);[7]
  7. Tigrayans arrested as a result of the war would have to be unconditionally released (TPLF);[7]
  8. the peace negotiations would have to be mediated by an independent international body (TPLF+Baytona/TIP/SAWET).[7][8]

Seb Hidri made similar demands on 21 February 2021, with the additional demands for a United Nations human rights monitoring and peacekeeping force present while reconstructing a local government; and for a UNESCO-led investigation of the destruction of cultural heritage in Tigray Region.[9]

March[]

On 8 March 2021, Sahle-Work Zewde visited Kenya for discussions with Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta. Daily Nation speculated that the purpose of the visit was a followup to United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken's pressure on Kenya to mediate in the Tigray War.[23]

In late March, Abiy refused a ceasefire proposal recommended by US Senator Chris Coons on behalf of US president Joe Biden. Coons, who had five hours of talks with Abiy, stated that he had "pressed for a unilateral declaration of a cease-fire, something the prime minister did not agree to, and pressed for a rapid move towards a full political dialogue on Tigray's future political structure."[24]

July[]

In Operation Alula in late June 2021,[25] the Tigray Defence Forces forced the ENDF to leave the Tigrayan capital Mekelle and much of the Tigray Region and the federal government announced a unilateral ceasefire. In the words of peace researcher Alex de Waal, the federal forces held Tigray Region under a "starvation siege". On 4 July, the restored Tigrayan government set seven pre-conditions for a ceasefire:[10]

  1. withdrawal of the EDF and Amhara militias;
  2. investigations of war crimes;
  3. humanitarian access;
  4. restoral of services;
  5. constitutional rights of the Tigrayan government;
  6. suspension of federal-level decisions taken since October 2020;
  7. an international monitoring mechanism for the other six points.

De Waal judged the conditions reasonable, but argued that both the federal and Tigrayan governments used provocative language that he described as "macho posturing", symbolising that "the two sides hate each other so much they would rather pull the house down than reconcile."[10]

In late July, a group of anonymous "Concerned Ethiopians" issued a public appeal, published by the World Peace Foundation, for a mediated negotiation between the federal, Tigrayan and Amhara governments, to start with confidence-building measures including the "[de-escalation] of rhetoric" and cessation of hate speech, mutual uncondition recognition, a one-month ceasefire, statements of each government's demands, and withdrawal of the EDF from all of Ethiopia. The Concerned Ethiopians proposed detailed mediation steps, transitional justice and called for a transitional process to find long-term solutions to Ethiopian "political problems deeply structural in their nature".[26]

Analyses[]

On 19 February 2021, Alex de Waal saw the EDF role as the "centre of gravity" of the Tigray War. He predicted that a withdrawal of the EDF from Tigray Region would lead to the ENDF losing control of most of Tigray. This would force Abiy to acknowledge the nature of the war as a civil war and negotiate "a ceasefire and mediation leading to a political settlement."[27]

References[]

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c d Tronvoll, Kjetil (29 January 2021). "Ethiopia re-enters the abyss of war". . Archived from the original on 12 February 2021. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  2. ^ Jump up to: a b c Wanjohi, Coletta (9 November 2020). "TPLF asks AU to intervene in Ethiopia's military offensive launched by government". SABC News. Archived from the original on 20 February 2021. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  3. ^ Jump up to: a b c "Tigray crisis: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rejects peace talks". BBC News. 11 November 2020. Archived from the original on 20 February 2021. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b Isilow, Hassan (21 November 2020). "Ramaphosa: Africa concerned about Ethiopian conflict". Anadolu Agency. Archived from the original on 20 February 2021. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b "The Presidency on visit of the African Union Envoys to Ethiopia". Government of South Africa. 30 November 2020. Archived from the original on 11 January 2021. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b "Communiqué of the 38th extraordinary assembly of IGAD heads of state and government – Djibouti, Republic of Djibouti – 20th December 2020" (PDF). Intergovernmental Authority on Development. 21 December 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 February 2021. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
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  8. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g "Three Tigray political parties issue demands". Tghat. 20 February 2021. Archived from the original on 21 February 2021. Retrieved 21 February 2021.
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  11. ^ Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (18 January 2021). "Brief Monitoring Report on the Situation of Civilians in Humera, Dansha and Bissober". Archived from the original on 20 January 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  12. ^ "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia adopts 2020 joint plan". Fana Broadcasting Corporate. 27 January 2020. Archived from the original on 12 February 2021. Retrieved 12 February 2021.
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