2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

2002 Arizona gubernatorial election
	County results; Napolitano: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; Salmon: 40–50% 50–60%
Governor before election; Jane Dee Hull; Republican	Elected Governor ; Janet Napolitano; Democratic

The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican Governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as Governor of a state.

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Betsey Bayless, Secretary of State of Arizona
Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative
Carol Springer, State Treasurer of Arizona

Declined to run[]

Dan Quayle, former Vice President and Indiana Senator^[1]

Results[]

Republican primary results^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Salmon	174,055	55.99
	Republican	Betsey Bayless	92,473	29.75
	Republican	Carol Springer	44,333	14.26
	Republican	Write-ins	24	0.01
Total votes			310,861	100.0

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Alfredo Gutierrez, State Senator
Janet Napolitano, Attorney General of Arizona and former U.S. Attorney
Mike Newcomb, physician
Mark Osterloh, perennial candidate

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Janet Napolitano	128,702	57.23
	Democratic	Alfredo Gutierrez	50,377	22.40
	Democratic	Mark Osterloh	31,422	13.97
	Democratic	Mike Newcomb	14,373	6.39
Total votes			224,874	100.00

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Results[]

Libertarian primary results^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	1,414	51.01
	Libertarian	Gary Fallon	1,358	48.99
Total votes			2,772	100.00

General election[]

Debates[]

Complete video of debate, October 30, 2002

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[3]	Tossup	October 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[4]	Lean D (flip)	November 4, 2002

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Janet Napolitano (D)	Matt Salmon (R)	Richard Mahoney (I)	Barry Hess (L)	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA	October 29–31, 2002	661 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	41%	11%	3%	1%

Results[]

The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 0.97%, barely allowing a recount.

It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next Governor of Arizona. Salmon acknowledged that the chance of his prevailing in a recount was extremely small and decided not to ask for one (recounts seldom see a swing over 1,000 votes^{[citation needed]}; he was losing by over 10,000). He officially called Napolitano on November 17 and congratulated her on her victory.

On November 20, Arizona Secretary of State Betsey Bayless certified the results of the election and declared Napolitano the governor-elect.

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Janet Napolitano	566,284	46.19%	+10.66%
	Republican	Matt Salmon	554,465	45.22%	-15.72%
	Independent	Richard D. Mahoney	84,947	6.93%	N/A
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	20,356	1.66%	-1.01%
	Write-in		59	0.00%	N/A
Majority			11,819	0.96%	-24.45%
Turnout			1,226,111	55.0	+10.0
	Democratic gain from Republican		Swing

Notes[]

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

References[]

^ Jr, B. Drummond Ayres (2001-02-11). "Political Briefing; From Arizona, Talk Of a Bid by Quayle (Published 2001)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-01-15.
^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c "Primary" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2004-10-26.
^ "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
^ "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
^ "General" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2004-10-26.

[key-5] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[1] Jr, B. Drummond Ayres (2001-02-11). "Political Briefing; From Arizona, Talk Of a Bid by Quayle (Published 2001)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-01-15.

[Primary-2] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c "Primary" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2004-10-26.

[3] "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.

[4] "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.

[General-6] "General" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2004-10-26.

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[3]

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