2008 United States presidential election in Florida

2008 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
Turnout	75%
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 27 0 Popular vote 4,282,367 4,046,219 Percentage 50.91% 48.10%
County Results Obama   50-60%   60-70% McCain   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in Florida
show Federal government Presidential elections 1848 1852 1856 1860 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Presidential primaries Democratic 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2020 U.S. Senate elections 1845 1848 1851 1855 1857 1868 1875 1879 1881 1885 1887 1890 1891 1897 1899 1903 1908 1911 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 U.S. House elections 1845 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1865 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Special elections Senate 1893 1899 1905 1909 1936 House At-large, 1845 6th, 1955 18th, 1989 1st, 2001 19th, 2010 13th, 2014 19th, 2014 20th, 2022 C.S. House elections 1861 1863 1st sp
show State government General elections 2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Gubernatorial elections 1845 1848 1852 1856 1865 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1954 1956 1960 1964 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Attorney General elections 1970 1986 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Chief Financial Officer elections 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Agriculture Commissioner elections 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Senate elections 2018 2020 House of Representatives elections 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Ballot measures 2008 Florida Amendment 2 2014 Florida Amendment 2 2016 Florida Amendment 1 2016 Florida Amendment 2 2018 Florida Amendment 4 2020 Florida Amendment 4
show Fort Lauderdale Mayoral elections 1994 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
show Gainesville Mayoral elections 2016 2019
show Hialeah Mayoral elections 2011
show Jacksonville Mayoral elections 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
show Miami Mayoral elections 2001 2009 2013 2017 2021
show Miami Beach Mayoral elections 2011 2013 2015
show Miami-Dade County Mayoral elections 1996 2011 (recall) 2011 (sp) 2012 2016 2020
show North Miami Mayoral elections 2013 2014 (sp) 2017 2021
show Orange County Mayoral elections 2010
show Orlando Mayoral elections 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2003 (sp) 2004 2008 2012 2015 2019
show St. Petersburg Mayoral elections 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
show Tallahassee Mayoral elections 1997 2003 (sp) 2006 2010 2014 2018
show Tampa Mayoral elections 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
show West Palm Beach Mayoral elections 1991 2015
Government
v t

The 2008 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Florida was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 2.8% margin of victory, making it the first time since 1996 the state was won by a Democrat. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state a toss-up, or swing state, as it was heavily targeted by both campaigns. Despite the fact that polls showed John McCain in the lead throughout much of 2008, Obama took the momentum in the two months before Election Day. Obama ended up winning the state with 51 percent of the vote, including wins in four counties that George W. Bush won in 2004.

Primary elections[]

State-run primaries were held for the Democratic and Republican parties on January 29. The Green Party held its own primary on February 1.

Democratic primary[]

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary Results – 2008
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates*
Hillary Clinton	870,986	49.77%	52.5
Barack Obama	576,214	32.93%	33.5
John Edwards	251,562	14.38%	6.5**
Joe Biden	15,704	0.90%	0
Bill Richardson	14,999	0.86%	0
Dennis Kucinich	9,703	0.55%	0
Christopher Dodd	5,477	0.31%	0
Mike Gravel	5,275	0.30%	0
Totals	1,749,920	100.00%	92.5

*As awarded by the May 31, 2008, meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC).
**Subsequently, some Edwards delegates switched to Obama.

Republican primary[]

McCain prevailed in Florida's Republican presidential primary.^[1]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Counties	Delegates
John McCain	701,761	36%	45	57
Mitt Romney	604,932	31.03%	18	0
Rudy Giuliani	286,089	14.68%	0	0
Mike Huckabee	262,681	13.47%	4	0
Ron Paul	62,887	3.23%	0	0
Fred Thompson*	22,668	1.16%	0	0
Alan Keyes	4,060	0.21%	0	0
Duncan Hunter*	2,847	0.15%	0	0
Tom Tancredo*	1,573	0.08%	0	0
Totals	1,949,498	100%	67	57

* Candidate dropped out of the race prior to primary.

Green primary[]

As part of the 2008 Green Party presidential primaries, the Green Party held a mail-in primary in Florida on February 1.^[2]

Florida Green Party presidential primary (February 1, 2008)[2]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Cynthia McKinney	-	-	11
Ralph Nader	-	-	2
Kent Mesplay	-	-	1
Kat Swift	-	-	1
Total	-	100%	16

Campaign[]

Republican George W. Bush of Texas carried Florida by a convincing margin of 5% in 2004 against Democrat John Kerry,^[3] a much greater margin than in 2000 when Bush controversially won the state's 25 electoral votes against Democrat Al Gore of Tennessee by 537 votes.^[4]

Early polls showed Barack Obama faring poorly in Florida. During the primary season, Barack Obama did not campaign there and argued against seating its delegates for the Democratic convention, unfavorable media attention. Moreover, Florida's demographics did not favor him. A haven for retirees, Florida lacked many of the younger voters who passionately supported the Democratic nominee. Thus, in early 2008, opinion polling showed Republican John McCain leading most polls, sometimes by double digits.^[5]

Near the end of September, however, when the financial crisis of 2007–2008 became a more potent election issue, Obama proceeded to take the lead in most of the polls.^[5] Florida was especially hard hit by the economic shock. It was a hotspot of new home building and suffered tremendously from the subprime lending collapse. In addition, the state was full of retirees depending on 401ks; these were badly hurt by the stock market's fall.

Predictions[]

16 news organizations made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report[6]	Likely R
Cook Political Report[7]	Toss-up
The Takeaway[8]	Toss-up
Electoral-vote.com[9]	Lean D (flip)
Washington Post[10]	Lean D (flip)
Politico[11]	Lean D (flip)
RealClearPolitics[12]	Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight[10]	Lean D (flip)
CQ Politics[13]	Toss-up
The New York Times[14]	Toss-up
CNN[15]	Toss-up
NPR[10]	Lean R
MSNBC[10]	Toss-up
Fox News[16]	Toss-up
Associated Press[17]	Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports[18]	Toss-up

Polling[]

The 3 poll averages showed McCain leading throughout most of the presidential election season, until the last month of October. The final 3 polls had Obama leading 49% to 48% with undecided voters to decide the election.^[19]

Fundraising[]

McCain raised $14,826,093. Obama raised $19,963,592.^[20]

Advertising and visits[]

Obama and his interest groups spent $36,990,591 in the state. McCain and his interest groups spent $17,133,501.^[21] The Democratic ticket visited the state 12 times to the Republicans' 11 times.^[22]

Analysis[]

Obama won the state and its 27 electoral votes on Election Day by a margin of about 2.82%.^[23] Obama held a consistent lead for most of the night as returns came in, but the networks avoided calling the state for Obama until the conservative northwestern portion, most of which is in the Central Time Zone, began reporting its returns.

According to exit polling, Obama's win in the state can be attributed to winning 96% of the African-American vote, 57% of Latino voters, and 52% among Independents.^[24]

Big wins in the Orlando and Tampa Bay areas, where George W. Bush won in 2004, contributed to Obama's victory. In the former, Obama carried Orange County (which includes Orlando) by 19 points - the best margin for a Democratic candidate in 64 years.^[25] Before Al Gore and John Kerry narrowly won it, Orange County hadn't supported a Democratic presidential nominee since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last run for president in 1944. Obama also carried Osceola County near Orlando by a 20-point margin (Bush won it in 2004 52%-47%).^[25] His strong performance in Central Florida more than likely helped the Democrats win two U.S. House seats in that region.

In the Tampa Bay region, Obama carried Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, by a 7-point margin.^[26] Obama also won Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, by a 53%-45% margin.^[26] Bush had narrowly carried the county by about 0.1% in 2004.^[27]

Like most Democratic candidates, Obama dominated South Florida, winning Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties by comfortable margins. The vote from Miami-Dade came in very late in the evening, stopping the major networks from calling the state for Obama earlier in the evening. However, Obama maintained a lead of at least 125,000 votes from the moment polls closed in the state.

On the other hand, John McCain kept the state relatively close, losing by far less than his national average. In northern Florida, a Republican stronghold, McCain won the majority of counties by double-digit landslides. Along the panhandle, McCain routinely took over 70% of the vote.^[28] Obama won only a handful of counties - most home to major colleges. Moreover, McCain improved on George Bush's performance in large parts of northern Florida - something he achieved in very few other areas of the country.^[28] Obama's sole accomplishment involved Duval County (Jacksonville), where he narrowed George Bush's 61,580-vote victory to a far smaller 7,919 margin.^[23][29] In 2008, Duval County had only supported a Democrat for president once since 1952, when Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976.

In addition, McCain was able to do well along the I-4 corridor in central Florida. This heavily populated, "swingy" region often determines which candidate wins in Florida's statewide elections. In 2008, the Republican candidate won most counties, including heavily populated areas such as Brevard County. However, McCain's poor showing in Orlando severely hurt his position in central Florida.

Democrats also picked up two seats from Florida in the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrat Alan Grayson defeated incumbent Republican Ric Keller for Florida's 8th Congressional District seat while Democrat Suzanne Kosmas ousted incumbent Republican Tom Feeney for Florida's 24th Congressional District seat. Republicans, however, were successful at winning back Republican Mark Foley's old congressional seat in Florida's 16th Congressional District seat when Tom Rooney defeated Democratic incumbent Tim Mahoney by a comfortable margin. At the state level, Democrats picked up two seats in the Florida House of Representatives as well.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Flagler County and Volusia County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results[]

United States presidential election in Florida, 2008[30]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	4,282,367	50.91%	27
	Republican	John McCain	4,046,219	48.1%	0
	Ecology	Ralph Nader	28,128	0.33%	0
	Write-Ins		20,414	0.24%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	17,220	0.20%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	7,915	0.09%	0
	Green	Cynthia A. McKinney	2,887	0.03%	0
	America's Independent	Alan Keyes	2,550	0.03%	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria LaRiva	1,516	0.02%	0
	Boston Tea	Charles Jay	797	0.01%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	533	0.01%	0
	Objectivist	Thomas R. Stevens	419	0.00%	0
	Socialist	Brian Moore	405	0.00%	0
	Prohibition	Gene Amondson	293	0.00%	0
	Republican	Ron Paul	174	0.00%	0
	Independent	None of these candidates	23	0.00%	0
Totals			8,411,861	100.00%	27
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					75.0%

Results breakdown[]

By county[]

	Barack Hussein Obama II Democratic		John Sidney McCain III Republican		Various Candides Other Parties		Total votes cast
County	%	#	%	#	%	#	#
Alachua	60.0%	75,565	38.5%	48,513	1.5%	1,889	125,967
Baker	21.0%	2,327	78.2%	8,672	0.8%	88	11,087
Bay	29.1%	23,653	69.7%	56,683	1.3%	1,030	81,366
Bradford	29.3%	3,430	69.5%	8,136	1.2%	137	11,703
Brevard	44.2%	127,620	54.5%	157,589	1.3%	3,718	288,927
Broward	67.0%	492,640	32.3%	237,729	0.6%	4,722	735,091
Calhoun	29.1%	1,821	69.4%	4,345	1.6%	98	6,264
Charlotte	45.7%	39,031	52.9%	45,205	1.5%	1,263	85,499
Citrus	41.1%	31,460	57.1%	43,706	1.8%	1,343	76,509
Clay	28.2%	26,697	70.9%	67,203	0.9%	823	94,723
Collier	38.3%	54,450	60.8%	86,379	0.8%	1,159	141,988
Columbia	32.5%	9,171	66.2%	18,670	1.3%	374	28,215
DeSoto	43.1%	4,383	55.4%	5,632	1.5%	149	10,164
Dixie	26.4%	1,925	71.2%	5,194	2.4%	174	7,293
Duval	48.6%	202,618	50.5%	210,537	0.8%	3,538	416,693
Escambia	39.8%	61,572	59.0%	91,411	1.2%	1,891	154,874
Flagler	50.2%	24,726	48.7%	23,951	1.1%	540	49,217
Franklin	35.3%	2,134	63.1%	3,818	1.6%	97	6,049
Gadsden	69.1%	15,582	30.2%	6,811	0.6%	145	22,538
Gilchrist	25.5%	1,996	72.3%	5,656	2.1	167	7,819
Glades	41.1%	1,381	57.7%	1,938	1.2%	39	4,261
Gulf	29.8%	2,149	69.0%	4,980	1.2%	89	7,218
Hamilton	42.3%	2,364	56.9%	3,179	0.8%	44	5,596
Hardee	34.5%	2,568	64.0%	4,763	1.5%	111	7,442
Hendry	45.8%	4,998	52.9%	5,780	1.3%	139	10,917
Hernando	47.6%	41,886	51.1%	45,021	1.3%	1,179	88,257
Highlands	40.4%	18,135	58.4%	26,221	1.3%	566	44,922
Hillsborough	53.1%	272,963	45.9%	236,355	1.0%	5,177	514,501
Holmes	16.8%	1,446	81.6%	7,033	1.6%	137	8,616
Indian River	42.0%	29,710	56.7%	40,176	1.3%	916	70,802
Jackson	35.5%	7,671	63.5%	13,717	1.0%	225	21,613
Jefferson	51.2%	4,088	47.6%	3,797	1.2%	93	7,978
Lafayette	19.0%	642	79.3%	2,679	1.7%	56	3,377
Lake	42.8%	62,948	56.4%	82,802	0.8%	1,176	147,371
Lee	44.3%	119,701	54.7%	147,608	1.0%	2,688	269,977
Leon	61.6%	91,747	37.4%	55,705	1.0%	1,483	148,935
Levy	35.7%	6,711	62.6%	11,754	1.7%	324	18,789
Liberty	27.2%	895	71.2%	2,339	1.6%	52	3,286
Madison	47.9%	4,270	51.0%	4,544	1.0%	93	8,907
Manatee	45.9%	70,034	52.9%	80,721	1.1%	1,712	152,467
Marion	43.6%	70,839	55.1%	89,628	1.3%	2,075	162,542
Martin	42.7%	33,508	56.2%	44,143	1.1%	871	78,522
Miami-Dade	57.8%	499,831	41.7%	360,551	0.5%	4,254	864,636
Monroe	51.7%	20,907	46.9%	18,933	1.4%	562	40,403
Nassau	27.7%	10,618	71.4%	27,403	1.0%	371	38,392
Okaloosa	27.0%	25,872	71.8%	68,789	1.2%	1,120	95,781
Okeechobee	39.8%	5,108	58.9%	7,561	1.3%	170	12,839
Orange	59.0%	273,009	40.4%	186,832	0.6%	2,870	463,039
Osceola	59.4%	59,962	39.7%	40,086	0.9%	877	100,925
Palm Beach	61.1%	361,271	38.2%	226,037	0.7%	4,128	591,436
Pasco	47.5%	102,417	51.1%	110,104	1.4%	3,068	215,589
Pinellas	53.4%	248,299	45.2%	210,066	1.5%	6,787	465,152
Polk	46.3%	113,865	52.5%	128,878	1.2%	2,961	245,704
Putnam	39.8%	13,236	59.0%	19,637	1.2%	406	33,279
Saint Johns	33.7%	35,791	65.3%	69,222	1.0%	1,067	106,081
Saint Lucie	55.5%	67,125	43.4%	52,512	1.1%	1,334	120,974
Santa Rosa	25.5%	19,470	73.3%	55,972	1.2%	935	76,377
Sarasota	49.4%	102,686	49.5%	102,897	1.2%	2,426	208,005
Seminole	48.1%	99,335	50.9%	105,070	1.0%	2,021	206,426
Sumter	36.0%	17,655	63.0%	30,866	0.9%	462	48,983
Suwanee	27.8%	4,916	71.0%	12,534	1.2%	212	17,711
Taylor	29.9%	2,803	68.8%	6,457	1.4%	127	9,387
Union	24.6%	1,300	74.4%	3,940	1.0%	53	5,310
Volusia	52.2%	127,795	46.5%	113,938	1.3%	3,122	244,855
Wakulla	36.9%	5,311	61.7%	8,877	1.3%	188	14,376
Walton	26.4%	7,174	72.1%	19,561	1.5%	404	27,139
Washington	25.6%	2,863	73.2%	8,178	1.1%	126	11,167

By congressional district[]

Despite the fact that Barack Obama won the popular vote and the state's 27 electoral votes, John McCain carried 15 congressional districts in Florida, including one district occupied by a Democrat. Obama carried 10 congressional districts, including three districts occupied by Republicans.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	66.66%	32.10%	Jeff Miller
2nd	54.27%	44.58%	Allen Boyd
3rd	25.99%	73.30%	Corrine Brown
4th	61.35%	37.66%	Ander Crenshaw
5th	55.57%	43.18%	Ginny Brown-Waite
6th	56.04%	42.82%	Cliff Stearns
7th	53.20%	45.68%	John Mica
8th	46.77%	52.47%	Ric Keller (110th Congress)
			Alan Grayson (111th Congress)
9th	52.17%	46.57%	Gus Bilirakis
10th	47.17%	51.30%	Bill Young
11th	33.08%	65.93%	Kathy Castor
12th	50.23%	48.84%	Adam Putnam
13th	52.05%	46.76%	Vern Buchanan
14th	56.76%	42.28%	Connie Mack IV
15th	51.15%	47.67%	Bill Posey
16th	51.80%	47.11%	Tim Mahoney (110th Congress)
			Tom Rooney (111th Congress)
17th	12.37%	87.25%	Kendrick Meek
18th	48.55%	50.74%	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
19th	33.92%	65.42%	Robert Wexler
20th	35.99%	63.25%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
21st	50.83%	48.68%	Lincoln Díaz-Balart
22nd	47.59%	51.63%	Ron Klein
23rd	16.83%	82.68%	Alcee Hastings
24th	50.47%	48.52%	Tom Feeney (110th Congress)
			Suzanne Kosmas (111th Congress)
25th	50.25%	49.22%	Mario Díaz-Balart

Electors[]

Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[31] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 27 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden^[32]

1. Wills Chip Arndt
2. Wayne Bailey
3. Fred Balsera
4. Terrie Bradv
5. Karl Flagg
6. Joe Gibbons
7. Janet Goen
8. James Golden
9. Chris Hand
10. Marlon Hill
11. Tony Hill
12. Joan Joseph
13. Allan Katz
14. Gena Keebler
15. Joan Lane
16. Caren Lobo
18. Jared Moskowitz
19. Angela Rodante
20. Frank Sanchez
21. Juanita Scott
22. Geraldine Thompson
23. Karen Thurman
24. Carmen Torres
25. Kirk Wagar
26. Enoch Williams
27. Frederica Wilson

References[]