2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout60.6% (voting eligible)[1]
  Heidi Heitkamp official portrait.jpg Rick Berg, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee Heidi Heitkamp Rick Berg
Party Democratic-NPL Republican
Popular vote 161,337 158,401
Percentage 50.2% 49.3%
2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota results map by county.svg
County results
Heitkamp:      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Berg:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Kent Conrad
Democratic-NPL

Elected U.S. Senator

Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic-NPL

Elections in North Dakota
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
  • v
  • t

The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL U.S. Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term.

Though each party endorses a single candidate in state political conventions in the spring, North Dakota determines actual ballot access for the general election in a statewide primary election that was held June 12, 2012.[2]

Former Democratic-NPL Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp ran for and won the open seat in a close-fought victory over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's sole U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%.[3] Heitkamp outperformed President Obama by 20.5%, who lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election.[4] Heitkamp's extremely narrow winning margin made this election the closest race of the 2012 Senate election cycle.

As of 2021, this is the last time a Democrat was elected to Congress or won a statewide election in North Dakota.

Democratic-NPL primary[]

The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.[5]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Withdrew[]

  • Thomas Potter, Presbyterian pastor and former professor of finance at UND[7] (dropped out February 2012)[8]

Declined[]

  • Kent Conrad, incumbent U.S. Senator[9]
  • Pam Gulleson, former state representative and former chief of staff and former state director for former senator Byron Dorgan[10]
  • Kristin Hedger, nominee for North Dakota Secretary of State in 2006[11]
  • Joel Heitkamp, brother of Heidi Heitkamp, radio personality and former state senator[12]
  • Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union and former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner[13]
  • Tim Mathern, state senator and nominee for governor in 2008[14]
  • Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. Representative[15]
  • Tracy Potter, state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[14]
  • Tim Purdon, U.S. Attorney[16]
  • Jasper Schneider, USDA rural development State Director[14][17]
  • Mac Schneider, state senator[11]
  • Ryan Taylor, Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate[18]

Republican primary[]

North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.[19]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Declined[]

  • Al Carlson, North Dakota state house majority leader[23]
  • Tony Clark, state public service commissioner[24]
  • Kevin Cramer, state public service commissioner[24]
  • Jack Dalrymple, North Dakota governor and 1992 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate[25]
  • Cory Fong, state tax commissioner[26]
  • Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director[27]
  • Tony Grindberg, state senator[28]
  • Bob Harms, North Dakota Republican Party treasurer[14]
  • Brian Kalk, state public service commissioner (running for House)[29]
  • Kim Koppelman, state representative[30]
  • Ed Schafer, former U.S. agriculture secretary and former North Dakota governor[31]
  • Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota treasurer[32]
  • Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota attorney general[33]
  • John Warford, mayor of Bismarck[34]
  • Drew Wrigley, North Dakota lieutenant governor[25]

Endorsements[]

hide
Rick Berg
Individuals
  • Katie Anderson, Mayor of Jamestown
  • John Hoeven, United States Senator from North Dakota
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison, United States Senator from Texas
  • Mike Hynek, Mayor of Stanley
  • Dennis Johnson, Mayor of Dickinson
  • Nancy Johnson, state representative
  • Ward Koeser, Mayor of Williston
  • Rich Mattern, Mayor of West Fargo
  • Ed McConnell, Mayor of Casselton
  • George Nodland, state senator
  • Mitt Romney
  • Brent Sanford, Mayor of Watford City
  • Mike Schatz, state representative
  • Vicky Steiner, state representative
  • Jim Sturdevant, Mayor of Wahpeton
  • Rich Wardner, State Senate Majority Leader
  • John Warford, Mayor of Bismarck
  • Curt Zimbelman, Mayor of Minot
Organizations
  • Susan B. Anthony List
  • National Rifle Association
  • North Dakota Farm Bureau

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rick
Berg 		Duane
Sand 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon June 4–6, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 73% 16% 11%
Essman Research May 3–8, 2012 500 ± 4.3% 65% 21% 14%

Results[]

Republican primary results[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Berg 67,849 66.41%
Republican Duane Sand 34,209 33.48%
Republican Write-ins 111 .41%
Total votes 102,281 100.00%

General election[]

Candidates[]

  • Rick Berg (R), U.S. Representative[20][21]
  • Heidi Heitkamp (D), former attorney general of North Dakota and nominee for governor in 2000[6]
  • Bill Kiefer (I), businessman[36]

Debates[]

Fundraising[]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Heidi Heitkamp (D) $5,341,362 $5,318,232 $23,130 $0
Rick Berg (R) $6,501,693 $6,129,026 $316,641 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[37][38]

Top contributors[]

[39]

Heidi Heitkamp Contribution Rick Berg Contribution
Motley Rice LLC $41,750 Verizon Communications $43,666
Council for a Livable World $26,705 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
Weitz & Luxenberg $22,400 NORPAC $26,700
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP $15,050 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000
Medcenter One Health Systems $12,000 Rurban Financial $22,700
American Association for Justice $10,833 Hess Corp $22,500
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $10,750 NACCO Industries $22,000
American Federation of Teachers $10,300 Marathon Oil $21,000
Patton Boggs LLP $10,250 Berkshire Hathaway $20,500
American Postal Workers Union $10,000 Koch Industries $20,000

Top industries[]

[40]

Heidi Heitkamp Contribution Rick Berg Contribution
Lawyers/law firms $433,811 Oil & gas $433,949
Leadership PACs $284,500 Leadership PACs $277,163
Women's issues $111,593 Financial institutions $274,941
Lobbyists $103,635 Retired $218,909
Retired $100,812 Real estate $171,686
Agribusiness $78,450 Agribusiness $163,583
Public sector unions $73,800 Insurance $140,011
Financial institutions $64,713 Commercial banks $127,140
Education $60,960 Health professionals $114,438
Building trade unions $52,500 Mining $106,804

Independent expenditures[]

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[41]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[44] Tilt R (flip) November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[45] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D) 		Rick
Berg (R) 		Other Undecided
Pharos Research November 2–5, 2012 503 ± 4.1% 47% 49% — 4%
Pharos Research October 26–28, 2012 752 ± 3.6% 50% 48% — 2%
Mason-Dixon October 26–28, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 45% 47% — 8%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) October 21–24, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 48% 44% — 7%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 807 ± 3.4% 49% 48% — 3%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) October 16–19, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 45% 42% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports October 17–18, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 45% 50% — 5%
Essman Research October 12–15, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 40% 50% — 10%
Mason-Dixon October 3–5, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 47% 47% — 6%
DFM Research (D) September 24–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 48% 44% — 8%
DFM Research (D) July 24–26, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 50% 44% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports July 10–11, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 40% 49% 2% 8%
Mason-Dixon June 4–6, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 47% 46% — 7%
Essman Research May 3–8, 2012 500 ± 4.3% 44% 51% — 5%
DFM Research (D) April 18–26, 2012 478 ± 4.5% 49% 44% 1% 6%

Results[]

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2012[46]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic-NPL Heidi Heitkamp 161,337 50.24% -18.58%
Republican Rick Berg 158,401 49.32% +19.79%
Write-in 1,406 0.44% N/A
Total votes 321,144 100.00% N/A
Democratic-NPL hold

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ^ "North Dakota election calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State. July 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2011.
  3. ^ Kate Nocera (November 7, 2012). "Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
  4. ^ "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota?". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved October 21, 2019.
  5. ^ "ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket". Newsday. Associated Press. March 17, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b Daum, Kristen M (November 8, 2011). "SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2011.
  7. ^ Nodland, Chad (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  8. ^ Smith, Nick (February 24, 2012). "Potter drops Senate bid". The Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  9. ^ Haga, Chuck (January 18, 2011). "Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012". Grand Forks Herald. Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  10. ^ Miller, Joshua (September 26, 2011). "Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  11. ^ Jump up to: a b "State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'". Grand Forks Herald. August 1, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.[permanent dead link](subscription required)
  12. ^ Catanese, David (November 1, 2011). "Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  13. ^ Miller, Tricia (January 18, 2011). "Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape". Roll Call. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  14. ^ Jump up to: a b c d Beitsch, Rebecca (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  15. ^ Trygstad, Kyle; Toeplitz, Shira (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  16. ^ Sullivan, Sean (April 28, 2011). "Club For Growth Slams Berg". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 6, 2012. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
  17. ^ Rodgers, Ben (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved January 19, 2011.[permanent dead link]
  18. ^ "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". Grand Forks Herald. December 12, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.[permanent dead link](subscription required)
  19. ^ Daum, Kristen (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved March 29, 2012.[permanent dead link]
  20. ^ Jump up to: a b Sobel, Julie (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". National Journal: Hotline On Call. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  21. ^ Jump up to: a b Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  22. ^ "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race" (Press release). Standard Newswire. August 8, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  23. ^ Toeplitz, Shira (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  24. ^ Jump up to: a b Catanese, David (April 26, 2011). "N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate". Politico. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  25. ^ Jump up to: a b Smith, Nick (November 3, 2011). "Dalrymple to run in 2012". Williston Herald. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
  26. ^ Daum, Kristen M (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on December 18, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  27. ^ Daum, Kristen M (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 29, 2011.
  28. ^ Beitsch, Rebecca (May 13, 2011). "Sand starts Senate campaign committee". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  29. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved May 20, 2011.
  30. ^ Daum, Kristen M (December 5, 2011). "West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
  31. ^ Miller, Tricia (December 27, 2010). "North Dakota GOPers Target Conrad Seat". Roll Call. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  32. ^ Finneman, Teri (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 25, 2012.[permanent dead link]
  33. ^ Gonzales, Nathan L (April 26, 2011). "Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  34. ^ Bunk, Matt (June 1, 2011). "In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford". Great Plains Examiner. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  35. ^ http://results.sos.nd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY
  36. ^ http://www.wday.com/event/article/id/68540
  37. ^ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  38. ^ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  39. ^ NDS2, Center for Responsive Politics
  40. ^ contributors by industry (opensecrets.org)
  41. ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  42. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  43. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  44. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  45. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  46. ^ "OFFICIAL 2012 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved January 13, 2019.

External links[]

Official campaign websites (Archived)
Retrieved from ""