2012 United States presidential election in New York

2012 United States presidential election in New York
Obama 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100%	Romney 40-50% 50-60% 60-70%
President before election; Barack Obama; Democratic	Elected President ; Barack Obama; Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose 29 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Barack Obama carried the state of New York by a landslide margin, winning 63.35% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 35.17%.^[1] As in previous elections, the Democratic ticket easily won, for the most part due to racking up great margins in New York City (which in and of itself makes up 42.2% of the state's population) and its metropolitan area. The city alone garnered Obama 1,995,241 votes (or 81.19% of the vote in the city). He also managed to win Staten Island (Richmond County) which he didn't get in 2008. Putnam County, which McCain won in 2008, was the only county in the NYC metropolitan area that Obama lost to Romney. The rest of his votes mostly came from Albany, Buffalo, Ithaca, Rochester, Syracuse, and their respective metropolitan areas, giving him a solid 28.18% lead over Romney. Obama even won in many rural counties. The Republicans won only in some rural parts of upstate and western New York.

New York was 1 of only 6 states to swing in President Obama's favor from 2008 to 2012, giving him the largest percentage of the vote for any presidential candidate in the state since 1964 and the second largest Democratic vote share in the state in history. Similar to New Jersey, some news outlets, such as the New York Times, have proposed that Obama's improved performance in these states – as opposed to worsened performances in areas like the Rust Belt – was due to his handling of Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29.^[2] Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg endorsed Obama due to the federal government's handling of the hurricane.^[3]

As of 2020, this is the most recent time the Democratic nominee won the following counties: Cayuga, Cortland, Franklin, Madison, Niagara, Orange, Oswego, Otsego, Richmond (i.e. Staten Island), Seneca, St. Lawrence, Suffolk, Sullivan, Warren, and Washington. As of 2020, this is also the most recent election where New York voted to the left of Maryland, Massachusetts or California.

Democratic primary[]

Barack Obama ran uncontested in the Democratic primary, and it was therefore cancelled.^[4]

Republican primary[]

2012 New York Republican presidential primary^[5]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Projected delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	AP	CNN	FOX
Mitt Romney	118,912	62.42%	92	92
Ron Paul	27,699	14.54%	0	0
Newt Gingrich	23,990	12.59%	1	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	18,997	9.97%	0	0
Blank	810	0.43%	0	0
Void	106	0.06%	0	0
Scattering	1	0.00%	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			2	3	95
Total:	190,515	100.00%	95	95	95

The 2012 New York Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012.^[6]^[7]

By county, Romney won a plurality in every county, and a majority in all but 6: Niagara, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, Orleans, Schuyler, Herkimer and Oswego.

Paul finished second in most counties. Santorum finished second in Otsego County. Gingrich finished second in two geographic areas: a cluster of counties in the Catskills and Hudson Valley (Orange, Rockland, Sullivan, and Westchester) and in most of the counties of Western New York (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, and Wyoming), in addition to Herkimer and Oneida counties.^[5] Gingrich's relative strength in Western New York, as well as in Herkimer, can be attributed to the continued popularity and efforts of Carl Paladino, who carried those counties in the previous gubernatorial election and campaigned on Gingrich's behalf. The majority of New York politicians had endorsed Romney while the primary election was still competitive.

General election[]

Candidate Ballot Access:

Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio, Party for Socialism and Liberation

Write-In Candidate Access:

Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice

Results[]

2012 United States presidential election in New York
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama		4,337,622	61.25%
	Working Families	Barack Obama		148,119	2.09%
	Total	Barack H. Obama (Incumbent)	Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Incumbent)	4,485,741	63.35%	29
	Republican	Mitt Romney		2,228,060	31.46%
	Conservative	Mitt Romney		262,371	3.71%
	Total	Willard M. Romney	Paul D. Ryan	2,490,431	35.17%	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	Jim Gray	47,256	0.67%	0
	Green	Jill Stein	Cheri Honkala	39,982	0.56%	0
	Write-Ins	Write-Ins		9,076	0.13%	0
	Constitution	Virgil Goode	Jim Clymer	6,274	0.09%	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Peta Lindsay	Yari Osorio	2,050	0.03%	0
	Justice (Write-in)	Rocky Anderson (Write-in)	Luis J. Rodriguez	217	<0.01%	0
	Freedom Socialist (Write-in)	Stephen Durham	Christina López	34	<0.01%	0
	America's (Write-in)	Tom Hoefling	J.D. Ellis	34	<0.01%	0
	Socialist Workers (Write-in)	James Harris	Maura DeLuca	27	<0.01%	0
	Socialist Equality (Write-in)	Jerry White	Phyllis Scherrer	19	<0.01%	0
	Twelve Visions (Write-in)	Jill Reed	Tom Cary	12	<0.01%	0
	American Third Position (Write-in)	Merlin Miller	Virginia Abernethy	6	<0.01%	0
TotalsP				7,081,159	100.00%	29
Voter Turnout (Registered)						59.2%

Results by county[]

County	Obama%	Obama#	Romney%	Romney#	Johnson%	Johnson#	Stein%	Stein#	Others%	Others#	Total
Bronx	91.45%	339,211	8.08%	29,967	0.16%	608	0.21%	774	0.10%	378	370,938
New York (Manhattan)	83.75%	502,674	14.92%	89,559	0.52%	3,104	0.64%	3,860	0.17%	1,094	600,291
Kings (Brooklyn)	82.02%	604,443	16.90%	124,551	0.34%	2,500	0.60%	4,411	0.15%	1,077	736,982
Queens	79.08%	470,732	19.92%	118,589	0.40%	2,375	0.41%	2,465	0.18%	1,084	595,245
Tompkins	68.68%	27,244	28.00%	11,107	1.00%	395	2.10%	834	0.23%	90	39,670
Albany	64.49%	87,556	33.19%	45,064	1.00%	1,361	0.91%	1,238	0.40%	548	135,767
Franklin	62.09%	9,894	36.02%	5,740	0.73%	116	0.67%	106	0.49%	78	15,934
Westchester	61.99%	240,785	36.84%	143,122	0.53%	2,042	0.42%	1,627	0.22%	871	388,447
Clinton	61.85%	18,961	36.26%	11,115	0.85%	260	0.63%	193	0.42%	127	30,656
Ulster	59.97%	47,752	37.37%	29,759	1.00%	768	1.19%	944	0.51%	403	79,626
Onondaga	59.72%	122,254	38.51%	78,831	0.83%	1,697	0.77%	1,584	0.17%	351	204,717
Essex	58.53%	9,784	39.76%	6,647	0.80%	134	0.64%	107	0.27%	45	16,717
Monroe	57.97%	193,501	39.95%	133,362	1.07%	3,572	0.63%	2,101	0.38%	1,277	333,813
St. Lawrence	57.41%	21,353	40.70%	15,138	0.74%	276	0.61%	227	0.53%	197	37,191
Erie	57.31%	237,356	40.97%	169,675	0.86%	3,562	0.70%	2,898	0.17%	704	414,195
Schenectady	56.74%	36,844	40.92%	26,568	1.07%	692	0.79%	514	0.48%	315	64,933
Columbia	55.69%	16,221	41.97%	12,225	1.03%	299	0.89%	259	0.43%	125	29,129
Rensselaer	55.02%	37,408	42.82%	29,113	1.11%	754	0.90%	612	0.15%	103	67,990
Cayuga	54.56%	17,007	43.16%	13,454	0.91%	285	0.78%	243	0.58%	180	31,169
Sullivan	53.73%	15,268	44.71%	12,705	0.69%	195	0.66%	188	0.21%	59	28,415
Seneca	53.48%	7,094	44.39%	5,889	0.83%	110	0.76%	101	0.54%	72	13,266
Cortland	53.41%	10,482	44.31%	8,695	0.95%	187	0.82%	161	0.50%	99	19,624
Nassau	53.28%	302,695	45.64%	259,308	0.53%	2,998	0.36%	2,068	0.19%	1,082	568,151
Dutchess	52.80%	65,312	45.29%	56,025	0.89%	1,105	0.63%	785	0.39%	478	123,705
Rockland	52.76%	65,657	46.10%	57,363	0.51%	631	0.38%	474	0.25%	317	124,442
Oswego	52.73%	23,515	44.81%	19,980	1.00%	447	0.85%	379	0.61%	270	44,591
Orange	52.13%	73,315	46.48%	65,367	0.75%	1,049	0.50%	700	0.14%	197	140,628
Broome	51.46%	41,970	46.15%	37,641	1.12%	915	0.89%	723	0.39%	316	81,565
Suffolk	51.17%	304,079	47.48%	282,131	0.66%	3,947	0.43%	2,528	0.27%	1,581	594,266
Richmond (Staten Island)	50.71%	78,181	48.14%	74,223	0.58%	899	0.34%	519	0.23%	358	154,180
Otsego	50.20%	12,117	47.48%	11,461	0.88%	212	0.99%	238	0.46%	111	24,139
Saratoga	50.19%	52,957	47.75%	50,382	1.09%	1,147	0.62%	651	0.35%	373	105,510
Warren	50.06%	14,806	47.73%	14,119	1.05%	312	0.74%	220	0.41%	121	29,578
Washington	49.89%	11,523	48.00%	11,085	0.96%	222	0.77%	177	0.38%	88	23,095
Niagara	49.42%	43,986	48.58%	43,240	0.97%	864	0.63%	560	0.41%	363	89,013
Madison	49.37%	13,871	48.49%	13,622	1.06%	297	0.85%	238	0.23%	66	28,094
Ontario	48.25%	23,087	49.78%	23,820	1.19%	571	0.61%	294	0.17%	81	47,853
Chemung	47.98%	16,797	50.31%	17,612	0.89%	310	0.43%	151	0.40%	140	35,010
Jefferson	47.89%	17,099	50.75%	18,122	0.76%	271	0.42%	151	0.18%	65	35,708
Yates	47.53%	4,488	50.82%	4,798	0.73%	69	0.71%	67	0.21%	20	9,442
Chenango	47.20%	9,116	50.29%	9,713	1.13%	218	0.81%	157	0.57%	110	19,314
Montgomery	46.70%	8,493	51.33%	9,334	0.89%	161	0.51%	93	0.58%	105	18,186
Oneida	46.68%	40,468	51.36%	44,530	0.94%	819	0.58%	502	0.44%	381	86,700
Schuyler	45.10%	3,674	52.55%	4,281	0.98%	80	0.92%	75	0.44%	36	8,146
Chautauqua	45.05%	23,812	52.92%	27,971	0.95%	504	0.61%	324	0.46%	241	52,852
Herkimer	45.02%	11,273	53.04%	13,282	1.03%	259	0.69%	172	0.22%	54	25,040
Lewis	44.90%	4,724	53.71%	5,651	0.77%	81	0.48%	51	0.14%	15	10,522
Delaware	44.55%	8,304	53.32%	9,938	0.91%	170	1.07%	199	0.14%	27	18,638
Wayne	44.30%	16,635	53.43%	20,060	1.13%	424	0.59%	222	0.55%	206	37,547
Putnam	44.00%	19,512	54.31%	24,083	0.90%	397	0.47%	209	0.32%	144	44,345
Livingston	43.72%	11,705	53.97%	14,448	1.19%	318	0.65%	175	0.46%	124	26,770
Greene	43.69%	9,030	54.06%	11,174	1.11%	233	0.68%	141	0.44%	90	20,668
Fulton	43.47%	8,607	54.62%	10,814	0.80%	159	0.56%	111	0.55%	108	19,799
Cattaraugus	42.49%	12,649	55.66%	16,569	0.92%	274	0.68%	201	0.25%	74	29,767
Tioga	41.36%	8,930	56.13%	12,117	1.11%	240	0.80%	172	0.60%	130	21,589
Schoharie	41.09%	5,427	56.54%	7,467	0.98%	129	0.82%	108	0.57%	76	13,207
Steuben	40.97%	15,787	56.98%	21,954	0.97%	373	0.60%	232	0.48%	185	38,531
Orleans	39.35%	5,787	58.44%	8,594	1.12%	165	0.55%	81	0.54%	79	14,706
Genesee	38.80%	9,601	59.03%	14,607	1.47%	363	0.46%	115	0.24%	60	24,746
Allegany	36.21%	6,139	61.29%	10,390	0.99%	168	0.96%	162	0.55%	94	16,953
Hamilton	36.13%	1,128	61.88%	1,932	0.90%	28	0.45%	14	0.64%	20	3,122
Wyoming	34.66%	5,661	63.35%	10,348	0.83%	135	0.59%	96	0.58%	95	16,335
Totals	63.35%	4,485,741	35.17%	2,490,431	0.67%	47,256	0.56%	39,984	0.25%	17,923	7,081,159

See full list of sources See full list of sources

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

Chautauqua (largest city: Jamestown)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City)

Analysis[]

As expected, New York gave a landslide win to Obama, with 4,485,877 votes, or 63.35% of the popular vote, 28.18% lead ahead of Romney.^[8] It was one of only six states to swing in Obama's favor from 2008, when he won with a 26.85% margin.^[9] New York has voted solidly for the Democratic candidate in every election since Michael Dukakis in 1988, which marked the end of its status as a swing state. This was the greatest ever percentage of the vote won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson won 68.56% of the vote in his 1964 44 state-landslide.

The politics of New York State are dominated by the heavily populated area of New York City, which Barack Obama won in a historic landslide, taking 81.19% of the vote and sweeping all 5 boroughs. Obama took 1,995,241 votes in New York City, to Mitt Romney's 436,889. No other presidential candidate of either party has ever received more than 80% of the vote in New York City. This was not only due to its majority liberal and extremely diverse population. His performance in New York City likely contributed to his improvement from 2008, which was unusual compared to the rest of the country where he underperformed from 2008 (particularly in areas like the Midwest and Rust Belt). He managed to flip Staten Island, which voted for John McCain in 2008, as well as improved his margins in all other boroughs except for Manhattan. This improved performance is likely attributable to Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29 and had devastating effects on the state, killing 44 people, destroying 250,000 vehicles and 300 homes, damaging 69,000 residential units,^[10] and flooding of the New York City Subway, all tunnels within the city (except for the Lincoln Tunnel), many suburban communities.^[11] Areas that weren't directly affected by the hurricane were indirectly effected by power outages and major disruption to data communication.^[12] Staten Island was hit hardest, with its geographical position combined with weather patterns, causing a 16 feet-high storm tide at its peak, flooding major residential areas.^[13] 23 of the 44 deaths from the hurricane were in Staten Island.^[14] The federal government's powerful and coordinated response to the hurricane was praised by those on both sides of the isle, garnering Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg's endorsement,^[3] as well as praise from Republican politicians like Chris Christie.^[15] This – combined with the media's heavy criticism of Romney's support for a 40% budget cut to FEMA, which would grow to as much as 60% in the coming years – weakened Romney's performance amongst voters across city, including conservatives, especially in the borough of Staten Island.^[16]

The advantage from Hurricane Sandy was also reflected in polls. Prior to the storm, nine nationwide polls listed in Real Clear Politics' database found Romney and Obama each leading in four and one tied. Seven national polls taken after the storm had shown Obama leading in three, four being tied, and Romney leading in none. In particular, a poll by Politico and George Washington University found Obama's lead increasing in the Northeast from 8 to 20% before and after the storm.^[17]

Unlike many rural areas across the country, most notably in the Midwest, rural counties didn't swing especially hard against Obama this election. Most of the political landscape looked roughly the same, with the exception of Chautauqua County flipping red this election after supporting Obama by narrow margins in 2008. However, Obama tied with Romney for white voters (who make up a majority of upstate's population but a minority in New York City) according to New York Times exit polls this election, a significant decline from 2008 when he won white voters 52 to 46.^[18] Discounting New York City's votes, Obama still would have carried New York State, albeit by a closer margin. Excluding New York City, Obama's vote total in the state was 2,490,636 to Romney's 2,053,607, giving Obama a 54.03%-44.54% win outside of NYC.

In terms of exit polls, Obama performed roughly as expected. He won both women and men 68 to 31 and 58 to 42, respectively, and won Black voters 94 to 5 and Hispanic voters 89 to 11. These ethnic groups collectively make up 54.6% of New York City's population, and thus hold great influence. Obama won all age groups, education levels, and income levels, though he did best amongst 18 to 29 year olds (72 to 25), those with no college degree (66 to 34), and those with an income under $30,000 (81 to 17), respectively. Obama not only won liberals and registered Democrats, but he also won moderates and independents 63 to 36 and 50 to 44 respectively – these groups make up 42% and 23% of the electorate respectively and were thus vital for Obama to win.

References[]

^ "2012 General Election Returns" (PDF). NYS Board of Elections. February 6, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
^ "Opinion | A Big Storm Requires Big Government". The New York Times. 2012-10-29. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ ^a ^b Hernandez, Raymond (2012-11-01). "Bloomberg Backs Obama, Citing Fallout From Storm". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "New York Democratic Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ ^a ^b http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/Primary/RepublicanPresidentialPrimaryCounty.pdf
^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
^ "New York". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "New York - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "About Hurricane Sandy". www1.nyc.gov. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "Hurricane Sandy - New York". www.usgs.gov. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ Troianovski, Anton (2012-11-01). "A Look inside Verizon's Flooded Communications Hub". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ Gammon, Crystal (7 November 2012). "Why Hurricane Sandy Hit Staten Island So Hard". livescience.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ Taylor, Alan. "Hurricane Sandy: Staten Island Survivors - The Atlantic". www.theatlantic.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "Chris Christie and Hurricane Sandy give Obama a timely boost". Los Angeles Times. 2012-11-01. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "Politics of FEMA: Mitt Romney Suggested Less Federal Involvement, Paul Ryan Budget Scrutinized". ABC News. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ Cassidy, John. "How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-04.

External links[]

The Green Papers: for New York
The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order

[1] "2012 General Election Returns" (PDF). NYS Board of Elections. February 6, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.

[2] "Opinion | A Big Storm Requires Big Government". The New York Times. 2012-10-29. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[:0-3] Hernandez, Raymond (2012-11-01). "Bloomberg Backs Obama, Citing Fallout From Storm". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[4] "New York Democratic Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[results-5] ttp://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/Primary/RepublicanPresidentialPrimaryCounty.pdf

[6] "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.

[7] "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.

[8] "New York". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[9] "New York - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[10] "About Hurricane Sandy". www1.nyc.gov. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[11] "Hurricane Sandy - New York". www.usgs.gov. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[12] Troianovski, Anton (2012-11-01). "A Look inside Verizon's Flooded Communications Hub". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[13] Gammon, Crystal (7 November 2012). "Why Hurricane Sandy Hit Staten Island So Hard". livescience.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[14] Taylor, Alan. "Hurricane Sandy: Staten Island Survivors - The Atlantic". www.theatlantic.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[15] "Chris Christie and Hurricane Sandy give Obama a timely boost". Los Angeles Times. 2012-11-01. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[16] "Politics of FEMA: Mitt Romney Suggested Less Federal Involvement, Paul Ryan Budget Scrutinized". ABC News. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[17] Cassidy, John. "How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2020-09-03.

[18] "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-04.

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