2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia
	County and independent city results; Warner: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Gade: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
U.S. senator before election; Mark Warner; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Mark Warner; Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.^[1]

Background[]

Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore.^[2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote defeating former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie by 0.8%.^[3]

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. Senator^[4]^[5]^[6]

Republican primary[]

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.^[7]^[8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.^[9] The primary was on June 23.

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran^[10]

Eliminated in primary[]

Alissa Baldwin, teacher^[11]
Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer^[12]

Failed to qualify[]

Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor^[13]
Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player^[14]^[9]
Roger Franklin^[15]
Victor Williams, attorney and activist^[16]

Withdrawn[]

Gary Adkins, financial executive^[17]
John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020^[18]^[19]
Scott Taylor, former U.S. Representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district^[20] (running for his former House seat)

Declined[]

Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for U.S. House)^[21]
Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors^[22]^[23]

Endorsements[]

Daniel Gade

National Party Officials

Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee^[24]

U.S. Representatives

Randy Forbes, former (VA-04)^[25]
Elise Stefanik, (NY-21) ^[25]
Scott Rigell, former (Va-02)^[24]

State Senators

Bill Carrico, former (40)^[24]
Richard Stuart, (28)^[26]
Jill Vogel. (27)^[25]

State Delegates

Terry Kilgore, (1)^[26]
Wendell Walker. (23)^[24]

Individuals

Don Bolduc, Brigadier General and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire^[24]
E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist^[24]

Results[]

Results by county:

Gade

Gade—>90%
Gade—80–90%
Gade—70–80%
Gade—60–70%
Gade—50–60%
Gade—40–50%

Republican primary results^[27]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Daniel Gade	208,754	67.40%
	Republican	Alissa Baldwin	56,165	18.13%
	Republican	Thomas Speciale	44,795	14.46%
Total votes			309,714	100.0%

Independents[]

Withdrawn[]

Mary Knapp^[28]^[29]^[30]
Aldous Mina, Peace Corps veteran^[28]^[30]

General election[]

Debates[]

Complete video of debate, September 23, 2020

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[31]	Safe D	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections^[32]	Safe D	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[33]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[34]	Safe D	October 30, 2020
Politico^[35]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
RCP^[36]	Likely D	October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[37]	Safe D	November 3, 2020
538^[38]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Economist^[39]	Safe D	November 2, 2020

Endorsements[]

Mark Warner (D)

Labor Unions

International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers^[40]

Organizations

Black Economic Alliance^[41]
Coalition to Stop Gun Violence^[42]
End Citizens United^[43]
Human Rights Campaign^[44]
Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund^[45]
Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[46]
League of Conservation Voters^[47]
National Education Association^[48]
National Organization for Women^[49]
Planned Parenthood^[50]
Population Connection^[51]
Sierra Club^[52]

Individuals

John Warner, former Republican U.S. Senator from Virginia^[53]

Daniel Gade (R)

National party officials

Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee^[24]

U.S. Representatives

Randy Forbes, former (R- Virginia-04)^[25]
Elise Stefanik, (R-NY-21)^[25]
Dan Crenshaw, (R- TX-2)^[25]
Scott Rigell, former (R-Virginia-02)^[24]

State Senators

Bill Carrico, former (R-40)^[24]
Richard Stuart, (R-28)^[26]
Jill Vogel, (R-27)^[25]

State Delegates

Terry Kilgore, (R-1)^[26]
Wendell Walker, (R-23)^[24]

Individuals

Don Bolduc, Brigadier General and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire^[24]
E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist^[24]

Polling[]

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Daniel Gade (R)	Other/ Undecided
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	October 27 – November 1, 2020	283 (LV)	± 8.3%	61%	39%	–
Data for Progress	October 27 – November 1, 2020	690 (LV)	± 3.7%	57%	42%	1%^[b]
Roanoke College	October 23–29, 2020	802 (LV)	± 3.4%	55%	39%	6%^[c]
Christopher Newport University	October 15–27, 2020	908 (LV)	± 3.4%	57%	37%	6%^[d]
Swayable	October 23–26, 2020	332 (LV)	± 7.3%	60%	40%	–
Virginia Commonwealth University	October 13–22, 2020	709 (LV)	± 4.93%	55%	38%	8%^[e]
Schar School/Washington Post	October 13–19, 2020	908 (LV)	± 4%	57%	39%	4%^[f]
Civiqs/Daily Kos	October 11–14, 2020	1,231 (LV)	± 3.1%	54%	43%	2%^[g]
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College	September 30 – October 12, 2020	602 (LV)	–	55%	38%	7%^[h]
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research	September 30 – October 12, 2020	602 (LV)	± 5.4%	55%	38%	7%^[h]
Cygnal (R)^[i]	October 9–11, 2020	607 (LV)	–	51%	44%	5%^[j]
Cygnal (R)^[i]	September 22–25, 2020	600 (LV)	–	51%	41%	–
Christopher Newport University	September 9–21, 2020	796 (LV)	± 3.9%	52%	39%	9%^[k]
Virginia Commonwealth University	August 28 – September 7, 2020	692 (LV)	± 6.22%	55%	38%	6^[l]
Roanoke College	August 9–22, 2020	566 (LV)	± 4.1%	55%	34%	10%^[m]

Hypothetical polling

with Mark Warner and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Roanoke College	May 3–16, 2020	563 (LV)	± 4.1%	48%	31%	–	–

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia	Feb 15–19, 2019	636 (A)	± 4.0%	43%	26%	2%	23%

Results[]

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020^[54]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Mark Warner (incumbent)	2,466,500	55.99%	+6.84%
	Republican	Daniel Gade	1,934,199	43.91%	-4.43%
	Write-in		4,388	0.10%	+0.02%
Total votes			4,405,087	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Notes[]

^ ^a ^b ^c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
^ "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
^ "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
^ ^a ^b Undecided with 7%
^ ^a ^b Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
^ Undecided with 5%
^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
^ "Don't know/refused" with 6%
^ "Refused" with 0%

References[]

^ "Virginia Counties by Population". Virginia Demographics. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2008 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
^ Seth McLaughlin (July 8, 2019). "Sen. Mark Warner posts $1.8M second-quarter fundraising haul". Washington Times. Retrieved July 8, 2019.
^ Virginia Department of Elections. "Declaration of Candidacy" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
^ Virginia Department of Elections (November 2019). "June and November, 2020 United States Senate Candidate Bulletin" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. p. 4. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 1, 2020. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
^ Moomaw, Graham (April 1, 2020). "Three Republicans qualify for GOP primary to challenge U.S. Sen Mark Warner". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
^ "Certified Candidates in Ballot Order for June 9, 2020 Primary Elections" (PDF). Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
^ ^a ^b Moomaw, Graham (March 24, 2020). "GOP candidate sues Virginia election officials, says coronavirus thwarted efforts to get ballot signatures". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
^ Solano, Sophia (December 12, 2019). "SPA professor and veteran running for Virginia U.S. Senate seat". The Eagle. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
^ "Baldwin announces run for U.S. senate". The Kenbridge Victoria Dispatch. July 22, 2019.
^ Berti, Daniel (September 12, 2019). "Woodbridge Army officer launches bid for U.S. Senate". Prince William Times. Retrieved September 16, 2019.
^ Janney, Josh (January 30, 2020). "Dunn seeking GOP nomination for U.S. Senate seat". The Winchester Star.
^ Cline, Nathaniel (April 13, 2020). "Navy reservist Omari Faulkner disappointed to end U.S. Senate run". Loudoun Times-Mirror.
^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1346979". docquery.fec.gov.
^ "On July 4th, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner Harshly Criticized by 2020 Challener, Pro-Tr**p Law Prof Victor Williams". DC Presswire. July 9, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Gary Adkins Announces Termination of His Bid for U.S. Senate 2020". Standard Newswire. December 23, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
^ "17 changes to the candidate list. O'Rourke (Democratic) withdraws from Presidential contest". The Green Papers. November 4, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
^ "70 changes to the candidate list. Member of Congress Mark Randal Meadows (North Carolina, Republican) resigns". The Green Papers. March 31, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
^ Wilson, Reid (December 9, 2019). "Ex-Rep. Scott Taylor to seek old Virginia seat". The Hill. Retrieved December 9, 2019.
^ Leonor, Mel (December 2, 2019). "Freitas launches bid to challenge Spanberger for congressional seat". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
^ Vozzella, Laura (December 15, 2018). "As Va. GOP seeks new course, Corey Stewart says he's finished with statewide politics". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 16, 2018.
^ "Corey Stewart to quit politics: 'Just isn't exciting for me anymore'". Washington Examiner. January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l Gade, Daniel (January 29, 2020). "Daniel Gade Unloads First Round of Endorsements".
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g "State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade". April 9, 2020.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "State Senator Richard Stuart Endorses Daniel Gade". May 12, 2020.
^ "Virginia 2020 June Republican Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Virginia Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
^ "FILING FEC-1389132". FEC. March 11, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Virginia 2020 Senate Candidate List". www.elections.virginia.gov. August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 19, 2020.
^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
^ "IFPTE Releases Its 2020 Congressional Endorsements". ifpte.org. International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers. July 6, 2020.
^ "Mark Warner - Black Economic Alliance PAC". Black Economic Alliance.
^ "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020.
^ Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
^ Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
^ "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
^ Rich, Aliyah (March 5, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
^ "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
^ "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
^ "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org.
^ "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection.
^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
^ "Republican Former Senator John Warner Endorses Mark Warner's Re-election Bid". Mark Warner For Virginia. October 20, 2020. Retrieved December 27, 2020.
^ "2020 November General Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved November 22, 2020.

External links[]

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Virginia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"Virginia: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of Virginia". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Virginia at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

[key-54] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[55] "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%

[56] "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%

[57] "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%

[58] "Undecided/Refused" with 8%

[59] "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%

[60] "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%

[U7-61] Undecided with 7%

[Gade-62] Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign

[63] Undecided with 5%

[64] "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%

[65] "Don't know/refused" with 6%

[66] "Refused" with 0%

[1] "Virginia Counties by Population". Virginia Demographics. Retrieved January 8, 2021.

[2] "Virginia Elections Database » 2008 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.

[3] "Virginia Elections Database » 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.

[4] Seth McLaughlin (July 8, 2019). "Sen. Mark Warner posts $1.8M second-quarter fundraising haul". Washington Times. Retrieved July 8, 2019.

[5] Virginia Department of Elections. "Declaration of Candidacy" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. Retrieved February 1, 2020.

[6] Virginia Department of Elections (November 2019). "June and November, 2020 United States Senate Candidate Bulletin" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. p. 4. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 1, 2020. Retrieved February 1, 2020.

[7] Moomaw, Graham (April 1, 2020). "Three Republicans qualify for GOP primary to challenge U.S. Sen Mark Warner". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.

[8] "Certified Candidates in Ballot Order for June 9, 2020 Primary Elections" (PDF). Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved January 8, 2021.

[omari-9] Moomaw, Graham (March 24, 2020). "GOP candidate sues Virginia election officials, says coronavirus thwarted efforts to get ballot signatures". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.

[10] Solano, Sophia (December 12, 2019). "SPA professor and veteran running for Virginia U.S. Senate seat". The Eagle. Retrieved January 5, 2020.

[11] "Baldwin announces run for U.S. senate". The Kenbridge Victoria Dispatch. July 22, 2019.

[12] Berti, Daniel (September 12, 2019). "Woodbridge Army officer launches bid for U.S. Senate". Prince William Times. Retrieved September 16, 2019.

[13] Janney, Josh (January 30, 2020). "Dunn seeking GOP nomination for U.S. Senate seat". The Winchester Star.

[14] Cline, Nathaniel (April 13, 2020). "Navy reservist Omari Faulkner disappointed to end U.S. Senate run". Loudoun Times-Mirror.

[15] "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1346979". docquery.fec.gov.

[16] "On July 4th, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner Harshly Criticized by 2020 Challener, Pro-Tr**p Law Prof Victor Williams". DC Presswire. July 9, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019.^{[permanent dead link]}

[17] "Gary Adkins Announces Termination of His Bid for U.S. Senate 2020". Standard Newswire. December 23, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.

[18] "17 changes to the candidate list. O'Rourke (Democratic) withdraws from Presidential contest". The Green Papers. November 4, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.

[19] "70 changes to the candidate list. Member of Congress Mark Randal Meadows (North Carolina, Republican) resigns". The Green Papers. March 31, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.

[20] Wilson, Reid (December 9, 2019). "Ex-Rep. Scott Taylor to seek old Virginia seat". The Hill. Retrieved December 9, 2019.

[21] Leonor, Mel (December 2, 2019). "Freitas launches bid to challenge Spanberger for congressional seat". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved December 2, 2019.

[22] Vozzella, Laura (December 15, 2018). "As Va. GOP seeks new course, Corey Stewart says he's finished with statewide politics". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 16, 2018.

[23] "Corey Stewart to quit politics: 'Just isn't exciting for me anymore'". Washington Examiner. January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 13, 2019.

[GadeEndorsements-24] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l Gade, Daniel (January 29, 2020). "Daniel Gade Unloads First Round of Endorsements".

[auto-25] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g "State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade". April 9, 2020.

[autogenerated1-26] "State Senator Richard Stuart Endorses Daniel Gade". May 12, 2020.

[27] "Virginia 2020 June Republican Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved June 23, 2020.

[opensecrets-28] "Virginia Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.

[29] "FILING FEC-1389132". FEC. March 11, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.

[VA2020-30] "Virginia 2020 Senate Candidate List". www.elections.virginia.gov. August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 19, 2020.

[Cook_PR-31] "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.

[Inside_Elections-32] "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-33] "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.

[Daily_Kos-34] "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.

[Politico-35] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[RCP-36] "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.

[DDHQ-37] "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.

[38] Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.

[39] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.

[40] "IFPTE Releases Its 2020 Congressional Endorsements". ifpte.org. International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers. July 6, 2020.

[41] "Mark Warner - Black Economic Alliance PAC". Black Economic Alliance.

[42] "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020.

[43] Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.

[44] "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.

[45] Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.

[46] "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.

[47] Rich, Aliyah (March 5, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.

[48] "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.

[49] "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.

[50] "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org.

[51] "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection.

[52] "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.

[53] "Republican Former Senator John Warner Endorses Mark Warner's Re-election Bid". Mark Warner For Virginia. October 20, 2020. Retrieved December 27, 2020.

[67] "2020 November General Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved November 22, 2020.

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