2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

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2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout60.4%
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 756,764 539,398
Percentage 57.60% 41.06%
Mississippi Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Mississippi
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
City of Jackson
  • v
  • t

The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the white vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate. 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate.[3] Biden managed to very narrowly flip Warren County, winning it with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%.

Analysis[]

Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. Trump easily carried the state on election day by a 16% margin.

Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016.

In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the Simultaneous Senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.

In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial state flag, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was retired. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to rid the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.

This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from Caucasian born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of Caucasians supported Trump, while 93% of African-Americans supported Biden.[4]

Primary elections[]

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary[]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Mississippi Republican primary. ( | )

Incumbent President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts.[5]

2020 Mississippi Republican primary[6]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 240,125 98.6% 40
Bill Weld 2,292 0.9%
Rocky De La Fuente 1,078 0.4%
Total 243,495 100% 40

Democratic primary[]

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race.[7]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary.[]
2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary[8][9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 222,160 80.96 34
Bernie Sanders 40,657 14.82 2
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 6,933 2.53 0
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 1,550 0.56 0
Tulsi Gabbard 1,003 0.37 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 562 0.20 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 450 0.16 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 440 0.16 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 378 0.14 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 258 0.09 0
Total 274,391 100% 36

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[13] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[14] Likely R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[16] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Likely R September 2, 2020
CBS News[18] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[19] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[20] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[21] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Safe R August 6, 2020
538[23] Likely R November 2, 2020

Polling[]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win October 17–27, 2020 November 3, 2020 40.0% 57.0% 3.0% Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 39.6% 55.5% 4.9% Trump +15.9
Average 39.8% 56.3% 3.9% Trump +16.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,461 (LV) ± 4% 61%[c] 37% - - – –
Data For Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 562 (LV) ± 4.1% 55% 41% 2% 1% 1%[d] –
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 23–26, 2020 507 (LV) ± 5.3% 55% 41% - - 3%[e] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,116 (LV) – 62% 37% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 782 (LV) – 55% 44% - - – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 607 (LV) – 61% 36% - - – 3%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[A] Aug 28–30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 50% 40% No voters - No voters[f] 6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy[B] Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 53%[g] 43% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 733 (LV) – 59% 39% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 425 (LV) – 63% 35% - - – 2%
Chism Strategies Jun 2–4, 2020 568 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 41% - - 6%[h] 3%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College Apr 8–9, 2020 508 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 38% - - 7% 7%
Mason-Dixon Feb 26–28, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 56% 41% - - – 3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 26–28, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 59% 36% 5%

Results[]

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		756,764 57.60% -0.26%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		539,398 41.06% +1.00%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		8,026 0.61% -0.58%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		3,657 0.28%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		1,498 0.11% -0.20%
Independent Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker 		1,317 0.10%
American Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		1,279 0.10% -0.23%
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel 		1,161 0.09%
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		659 0.05%
Write-in
Total votes 1,313,759 100%

Results by county[]

County Donald Trump
Republican		 Joe Biden
Democratic		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % # % #
Adams 41.40% 5,696 57.54% 7,917 0.35% 48 0.71% 98 13,759
Alcorn 81.16% 12,818 17.62% 2,782 0.75% 118 0.47% 75 15,793
Amite 62.58% 4,503 36.41% 2,620 0.29% 21 0.72% 52 7,196
Attala 58.69% 5,178 40.15% 3,542 0.41% 36 0.76% 67 8,823
Benton 59.92% 2,570 39.15% 1,679 0.28% 12 0.65% 28 4,289
Bolivar 33.99% 4,671 64.78% 8,904 0.35% 48 0.88% 121 13,744
Calhoun 70.18% 4,625 28.86% 1,902 0.23% 15 0.73% 48 6,590
Carroll 68.83% 3,924 30.33% 1,729 0.25% 14 0.60% 34 5,701
Chickasaw 51.28% 4,175 46.80% 3,810 0.92% 75 0.99% 81 8,141
Choctaw 71.06% 3,001 28.06% 1,185 0.38% 16 0.50% 21 4,223
Claiborne 13.55% 603 84.78% 3,772 0.25% 11 1.41% 63 4,449
Clarke 64.97% 5,417 34.04% 2,838 0.34% 28 0.66% 55 8,338
Clay 41.03% 4,181 57.36% 5,844 0.47% 48 1.13% 116 10,189
Coahoma 27.94% 2,375 70.82% 6,020 0.24% 20 1.00% 86 8,501
Copiah 48.51% 6,250 50.22% 6,470 0.45% 58 0.81% 105 12,883
Covington 62.54% 5,854 36.50% 3,416 0.35% 33 0.61% 57 9,360
DeSoto 61.03% 46,462 37.13% 28,265 0.95% 722 0.89% 675 76,124
Forrest 54.62% 17,290 43.45% 13,755 1.04% 329 0.89% 280 31,654
Franklin 65.52% 2,923 33.18% 1,480 0.47% 21 0.83% 37 4,461
George 87.91% 9,713 11.02% 1,218 0.49% 54 0.58% 64 11,049
Greene 82.48% 4,794 16.62% 966 0.34% 20 0.55% 32 5,812
Grenada 55.73% 6,081 43.39% 4,734 0.35% 38 0.53% 58 10,911
Hancock 76.98% 16,132 21.49% 4,504 0.87% 183 0.66% 138 20,957
Harrison 61.70% 46,822 36.54% 27,728 0.96% 726 0.80% 609 75,885
Hinds 25.09% 25,141 73.40% 73,550 0.40% 396 1.12% 1,121 100,208
Holmes 16.87% 1,369 81.18% 6,588 0.32% 26 1.63% 132 8,115
Humphreys 26.69% 1,118 72.00% 3,016 0.24% 10 1.09% 45 4,189
Issaquena 45.56% 308 52.51% 355 0.74% 5 1.18% 8 676
Itawamba 87.24% 9,438 11.54% 1,249 0.73% 79 0.49% 53 10,819
Jackson 66.54% 36,295 31.86% 17,375 0.87% 474 0.73% 399 54,543
Jasper 49.24% 4,302 49.69% 4,341 0.34% 30 0.72% 63 8,736
Jefferson 13.59% 531 85.13% 3,327 0.36% 14 0.92% 36 3,908
Jefferson Davis 40.79% 2,534 57.93% 3,599 0.26% 16 1.03% 64 6,213
Jones 70.54% 21,226 28.30% 8,517 0.56% 169 0.59% 179 30,091
Kemper 37.77% 1,787 61.02% 2,887 0.21% 10 1.00% 47 4,731
Lafayette 55.28% 12,949 42.99% 10,070 1.03% 242 0.69% 162 23,423
Lamar 72.57% 20,704 25.73% 7,340 0.93% 264 0.78% 222 28,530
Lauderdale 57.50% 17,967 41.48% 12,960 0.48% 149 0.55% 171 31,247
Lawrence 64.80% 4,285 34.18% 2,260 0.29% 19 0.74% 49 6,613
Leake 56.83% 5,228 42.36% 3,897 0.21% 19 0.61% 56 9,200
Lee 65.51% 24,207 32.98% 12,189 0.79% 292 0.72% 266 36,954
Leflore 28.72% 3,129 70.21% 7,648 0.28% 31 0.78% 85 10,893
Lincoln 69.02% 11,596 30.00% 5,040 0.38% 64 0.60% 101 16,801
Lowndes 50.66% 13,800 48.04% 13,087 0.67% 182 0.63% 172 27,241
Madison 55.16% 31,091 43.36% 24,440 0.62% 351 0.85% 479 56,361
Marion 67.94% 8,273 31.10% 3,787 0.36% 44 0.60% 73 12,177
Marshall 47.83% 7,566 50.94% 8,057 0.30% 48 0.92% 146 15,817
Monroe 64.76% 11,177 34.03% 5,874 0.54% 93 0.67% 115 17,259
Montgomery 57.48% 2,917 41.79% 2,121 0.18% 9 0.56% 28 5,075
Neshoba 71.09% 8,320 27.86% 3,260 0.39% 46 0.66% 77 11,703
Newton 68.71% 6,997 30.20% 3,075 0.46% 47 0.62% 64 10,183
Noxubee 23.23% 1,240 75.67% 4,040 0.24% 13 0.85% 46 5,339
Oktibbeha 45.57% 9,004 52.13% 10,299 1.29% 255 1.01% 199 19,757
Panola 51.58% 8,060 47.37% 7,403 0.31% 48 0.74% 116 15,627
Pearl River 81.53% 19,595 17.26% 4,148 0.67% 160 0.54% 130 24,033
Perry 76.06% 4,500 23.02% 1,362 0.35% 21 0.56% 33 5,916
Pike 48.84% 8,479 49.80% 8,646 0.52% 91 0.84% 145 17,361
Pontotoc 80.43% 11,550 18.20% 2,614 0.72% 103 0.65% 94 14,361
Prentiss 78.64% 8,370 20.23% 2,153 0.66% 70 0.48% 51 10,644
Quitman 31.80% 1,026 66.65% 2,150 0.37% 12 1.18% 38 3,226
Rankin 71.89% 50,895 26.62% 18,847 0.78% 555 0.71% 502 70,799
Scott 58.56% 6,285 40.34% 4,330 0.35% 38 0.75% 80 10,733
Sharkey 31.52% 688 67.11% 1,465 0.41% 9 0.96% 21 2,183
Simpson 64.62% 7,635 34.17% 4,037 0.41% 49 0.79% 94 11,815
Smith 77.55% 6,458 21.51% 1,791 0.40% 33 0.54% 45 8,327
Stone 75.70% 5,964 22.87% 1,802 0.72% 57 0.70% 55 7,878
Sunflower 28.91% 2,799 70.04% 6,781 0.19% 18 0.84% 83 9,681
Tallahatchie 43.76% 2,488 54.62% 3,105 0.35% 20 1.27% 72 5,685
Tate 66.50% 8,707 31.95% 4,183 0.64% 84 0.91% 119 13,093
Tippah 79.73% 8,054 19.17% 1,937 0.43% 43 0.67% 68 10,102
Tishomingo 86.81% 7,933 11.59% 1,059 1.06% 97 0.54% 49 9,138
Tunica 25.97% 926 72.37% 2,580 0.25% 9 1.41% 50 3,565
Union 81.79% 10,373 17.03% 2,160 0.64% 81 0.54% 69 12,683
Walthall 59.28% 4,220 39.82% 2,835 0.27% 19 0.63% 45 7,119
Warren 49.23% 10,365 49.60% 10,442 0.44% 93 0.73% 153 21,053
Washington 29.39% 5,300 69.33% 12,503 0.29% 53 0.98% 178 18,034
Wayne 62.72% 6,307 36.04% 3,624 0.45% 45 0.80% 80 10,056
Webster 79.54% 4,291 19.33% 1,043 0.50% 27 0.63% 34 5,395
Wilkinson 32.08% 1,324 66.61% 2,749 0.29% 12 1.02% 42 4,127
Winston 55.35% 5,112 43.74% 4,040 0.44% 41 0.46% 43 9,236
Yalobusha 56.17% 3,671 42.62% 2,785 0.40% 26 0.81% 53 6,535
Yazoo 46.30% 4,832 52.66% 5,496 0.20% 21 0.85% 87 10,436
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]
  • Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)

Results by congressional district[]

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 64.8% 33.8% Trent Kelly
2nd 35.2% 63.7% Bennie Thompson
3rd 60.1% 38.6% Michael Guest
4th 68.3% 30.3% Steven Palazzo

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Jump up to: a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  6. ^ "Refused" with no voters
  7. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign

References[]

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 27, 2021.
  4. ^ "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ Harrison, Bobby (February 27, 2020). "Who's on the ballot for Mississippi's March 10 primary?". Mississippi Today. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  6. ^ "2020 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  7. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  8. ^ "2020 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  9. ^ "Mississippi Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  16. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  17. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  22. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 General Election". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2020.

Further reading[]

External links[]

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