2022 Kenyan general election

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2022 Kenyan general election
9 August 2022
Presidential election
← 2017
President before election

Uhuru Kenyatta
Jubilee Party

President after election

TBD

General elections are scheduled to be held in Kenya on 9 August 2022. Voters will elect the President, members of the National Assembly and Senate, county governors and members of the 47 county assemblies.

Constitutional background[]

The Constitution of Kenya requires that a general election of members of parliament to be held on the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year, which means that the next general election is scheduled for 9 August 2022. If Kenya is at war, the election can be delayed if a resolution is passed in each House of Parliament by at least two-thirds of all the members of the House. Such a resolution can delay the election by up to six months, and may be passed multiple times provided that the delays do not cumulatively exceed 12 months.[1]

The Constitution requires that a presidential election take place at the same time as the general election. In the unlikely event that prior to the next general election the position of president falls vacant and the office of deputy president is also vacant (who otherwise would assume the office of president), a presidential election could be held at an earlier date. According to the Constitution in such circumstances, an election needs to be held within sixty days after the vacancy arose in the office of President.

Incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta is ineligible to pursue a third term due to the two-term limit in the Constitution of Kenya.

Historical background and campaign[]

A new political dynamic based on class politics seems to be emerging in Kenya,[2] which is being framed as hustlers versus dynasties.[3][4][5]

The families of incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta and former opposition leader Raila Odinga have dominated Kenyan politics since independence in 1963. Moreover, Kenya has traditionally been ruled by presidents who belong to either the Kikuyu people – like Kenyatta – or the Kalenjin people, like incumbent vice-president William Ruto. The potential victory of Odinga, a Luo, would mark a departure for the country, which has 44 ethnic groups.[6]

The 54-year-old Ruto initially fought alongside Odinga in 2007, when police crackdowns on protesters and clashes that turned into ethnic attacks killed more than 1,000 people in post-election violence, eventually prompting a new constitution to devolve power. Ruto teamed up with Kenyatta in 2013. Both Kenyatta and Ruto had been indicted by the International Criminal Court on crimes against humanity charges for their alleged role in orchestrating the post-election violence. The cases later collapsed, with former ICC chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda saying a relentless campaign of victim and witness intimidation made a trial impossible.[7][8]

In 2018 President Uhuru Kenyatta and his former arch-rival for Presidency, Raila Odinga, stunned the public when they shook hands and declared a truce after post-election violence in 2017 left dozens of people dead. The two leaders also sought to expand the executive through the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) constitutional changes that would have potentially allowed Kenyatta to stay in power as a prime minister. But despite Kenya’s top court ruling against the proposed amendments in August, the unexpected alliance has persevered with Odinga attending official government functions with Kenyatta.[9]

In December 2021 the Mount Kenya Foundation, one of the country’s most powerful and wealthy Kikuyu lobbies, announced their support for Odinga, while Kenyatta has repeatedly said that the next president will be “neither Kikuyu nor Kalenjin”. On 10 December 2021, Odinga declared his intention to run for the presidency for the fifth time.[6]

In January 2022 Ruto's United Democratic Alliance announced a coalition pact with the Amani National Congress of Musalia Mudavadi, FORD–Kenya of Moses Wetangula and several other political parties. The new coalition was called Kenya Kwanza.[10]

In February 2022 Kenyatta’s Jubilee party announced that it would join the Azimio la Umoja coalition headed by Odinga, the party leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).[11] On 12 March 2022, at least 26 political parties, including the major political parties Wiper, Jubilee, ODM and KANU, signed a co-operation pact, endorsing Raila Odinga’s presidential candidature.[12] That same day, Kenyatta publicly endorsed Odinga for the presidency.[13]

On 15 March 2022 the UDA and Kenya Kwanza endorsed Ruto as their presidential candidate for August 2022 general elections.[14]

Electoral system[]

The President of Kenya is elected using a modified version of the two-round system: to win in the first round, a candidate must receive over 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the vote in a minimum of 24 of the 47 counties.[15][16]

The 337 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods; 290 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting. The remaining 47 are reserved for women and are elected from single-member constituencies based on the 47 counties, also using the first-past-the-post system.[17] The 67 members of the Senate are elected by four methods; 47 are elected in single-member constituencies based on the counties by first-past-the-post voting. Parties are then assigned a share of 16 seats for women, two for youth and two for disabled people based on their seat share.[18]

Members of the county assemblies are elected from 1,450 electoral wards.

Presidential candidates[]

Declined[]

The following individuals declined to run as candidates and endorsed Raila Odinga:

The following individuals declined to run as candidates and endorsed William Ruto:

Opinion polls[]

President[]

This table below lists polls completed since the announcement of Raila Odinga on 10 December 2021 that he would be contesting the presidency.

Polling
firm 		Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Raila A. Odinga.jpg William Ruto at WTO Public Forum 2014.jpg Others Undecided No response
Odinga
ODM 		Ruto
UDA
Radio Africa Limited March 2022 N/A 47.4% 43.4% 3% 2.3%
Radio Africa Limited February 2022 N/A 35.1% 47.1%
Tifa Research 9–13 February 2022 1,541 27% 38.7% 4.3% 20% 10%
Radio Africa Limited January 2022 N/A 35.1% 46.1%
Tifa Research 9–13 November 2021 1,519 23% 38% 6% 23% 10%
Radio Africa Limited November 2022 N/A 28.6% 45.6%
Radio Africa Limited July 2021 N/A 14.2% 42.7%
Radio Africa Limited January 2020 N/A 19.9% 38.8%

References[]

  1. ^ "Constitution of Kenya – 101. Election of members of Parliament". KLRC. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  2. ^ "Why peace remains elusive as Kenya prepares for the 2022 general elections". Saferworld. 26 August 2021. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  3. ^ Gathara, Patrick (24 September 2019). "Dynasties vs hustlers in Kenya". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  4. ^ Pike, Isabel (March 2021). ""Hustlers versus Dynasty": Kenya's New Class Politics". Centre for Global Challenges. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  5. ^ Mwazemba, John (13 February 2021). "'Hustlers' versus 'Dynasties': Ngugi's prophesied apocalypse". Nation Media Group. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  6. ^ a b "Kenyan opposition leader Odinga announces fifth bid for president". Al Jazeera. 10 December 2021. Retrieved 13 March 2021.
  7. ^ "Kenyatta case: Trial Chamber V(B) terminates the proceedings". International Criminal Court. 13 March 2015. Retrieved 20 March 2022.
  8. ^ "Ruto and Sang case: ICC Trial Chamber V(A) terminates the case without prejudice to re-prosecution in future". International Criminal Court. 5 April 2016. Retrieved 20 March 2022.
  9. ^ "Uhuru, Raila tour Kisumu port, Jomo Kenyatta stadium". Citizen Digital. 11 January 2021. Retrieved 20 March 2022.
  10. ^ Brian, George (27 January 2022). "Revealed: Mudavadi created his 'Kenya Kwanza coalition' with Ruto while still in OKA". People Daily. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  11. ^ Joseph, Muia (26 February 2022). "Jubilee Party NDC resolves to join Azimio la Umoja, back joint presidential candidate". Citizen Digital. Retrieved 20 March 2022.
  12. ^ "ODM, Jubilee, Wiper, Kanu, and 22 other political parties sign pact to join Azimio la Umoja movement". KTN News Kenya. 12 March 2022. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
  13. ^ "Uhuru Kenyatta endorses Raila Odinga for presidency". The Independent. 13 March 2022. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
  14. ^ "DP William Ruto endorsed as UDA's presidential candidate". Citizen Digital. 15 March 2022. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  15. ^ "Presidential Candidates – Kenyan Presidential Election, 2012". Kenya Diaspora Vote. Archived from the original on 16 December 2012. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  16. ^ "Constitution of Kenya – 138. Procedure at presidential election". KLRC. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  17. ^ "Kenya National Assembly – Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  18. ^ "Constitution of Kenya – 90. Allocation of party list seats". KLRC. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  19. ^ Oruta, Brian (12 March 2022). "Kalonzo drops presidential ambition, backs Raila". The Star. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  20. ^ a b c d Kihiu, Njoki (13 March 2022). "Ruto Allies Ask Kenyatta To Publicly Commit To Peaceful Transfer Of Power". Capital FM Kenya. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
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