2022 Serbian general election

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2022 Serbian general election
3 April 2022
Presidential election
← 2017
Incumbent President

Aleksandar Vučić
SNS



Parliamentary election
← 2020
All 250 seats in the National Assembly
126 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
SNS coalition Aleksandar Vučić 180
SPS–ZS–KP Ivica Dačić 24
VMSZ István Pásztor 9
PUPS Milan Krkobabić 9
JS Dragan Marković 8
SDPS Rasim Ljajić 8
UV–SDA S Shaip Kamberi 6
SPP–USS Usame Zukorlić 5
NM–SSZ Vladan Glišić 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Ana Brnabić
SNS
Coat of arms of Serbia.svg
2022 Serbian general election
Preceding events
Participants
  • Background
    • joint lists
    • pre-election composition
  • Presidential candidates
  • Campaign
    • issues
    • party campaigns
Related races
← 2017
← 2020		 3 April
2021		 TBD →
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Politics of Serbia
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Constitution
  • Constitutional Court
    President: Snežana Marković
Executive
Legislature
Judiciary
  • Supreme Court of Cassation
    President: Dragomir Milojević
Elections
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General elections will be held in Serbia on 3 April 2022 to elect both the president and National Assembly.[1][2]

Initially, parliamentary elections were supposed to be held before 2024, although the incumbent president Aleksandar Vučić announced in late October 2020 that the elections will be called earlier.[3] Besides the general elections, city assembly elections will be held in Belgrade.[1]

Background[]

See also: 2017 Serbian presidential election, 2020 Serbian parliamentary election, 2018–2020 Serbian protests, and 2020 Serbian protests

Since Aleksandar Vučić came to power in 2012, Serbia has suffered from democratic backsliding into authoritarianism, followed by a decline in media freedom and civil liberties.[4][5] In 2017, then prime minister Vučić was elected as the new president in a landslide, winning 55% of the popular vote.[6] Mass protests began after the election due to the dominant control of Serbia's media by Vučić and the ruling populist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).[7][8] Subsequently, Vučić appointed Ana Brnabić as the new head of government,[9] who initially served as an independent but later joined SNS in 2019.[10]

Numerous government scandals triggered the beginning of the long-lasting peaceful anti-government protests that began in late November 2018, dubbed as "One of Five Million".[11][12][13][14] These protests helped strengthen the unity of opposition forces, of which the Alliance for Serbia (SzS) was the biggest and most prominent,[15][16] and they demanded the resignation of Vučić and other senior officials.[17][18] Parallel to this, Vučić launched the "Future of Serbia" campaign in 2019.[19] Some opposition parties and coalitions declared that they would boycott the next parliamentary election, citing that the conditions weren't free and fair.[20][21] Due to these decisions, SzS was hit by inter-party and coalition problems that remained until the coalition's dissolution in August 2020.[22] The protests were suspended in early 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic in the country.[23]

The SNS-led ballot list, named For Our Children, managed to win a majority of votes and seats in the 2020 parliamentary election,[24] and the government was formed in late October 2020.[25] Shortly after the election ended, protests erupted in the country, mainly in the capital city of Belgrade.[26] These anti-government protests were marked with police brutality and violence orchestrated by the government,[27][28][29] while the protesters were divided between taking peaceful and violent approaches.[26][30][31] This time, the protests mainly lasted only through July, while some sporadic protests continued to be organized until late 2020.[32][33] In August 2020, the United Opposition of Serbia (UOPS) was formed, as a direct successor to the Alliance for Serbia (SzS).[22] This coalition remained unstable and faced many inter-party problems.[22] Due to ideological differences, the coalition's dissolution began in December 2020 and by January 2021 it was officially dissolved.[34][35] The former alliance was split into two blocs, one headed by the centre-left parties and the other by the centre-right parties.[36][37]

Constitutional changes and laws[]

See also: 2022 Serbian constitutional referendum and 2021 Serbian environmental protests

A proposal to amend of the constitution on the basis of the judiciary system was proposed to the parliament in late April 2021,[38][39] but constitutional changes need to be passed by a referendum in order to be implemented.[40] The parliament accepted the proposal for the change on 7 June,[40][41] and although the referendum was initially supposed to be held in fall 2021,[42] in November it was announced that it would be held in January 2022.[43] After postponing the session regarding the adoption of the proposed constitutional changes,[44] it was determined by National Assembly representatives and sent to the president of the National Assembly Ivica Dačić on 22 September.[45][46] Some MPs that are a part of the ruling parties voiced their opposition to the judiciary changes,[41] including opposition MPs such as Shaip Kamberi,[47] Vladan Glišić,[48] and non-parliamentary political parties Dveri including its leader Boško Obradović, Movement of Free Citizens and Zoran Lutovac.[49][50][51]

The law on referendums and popular initiatives, which had been on the waiting list since the implementation of the 2006 constitution,[52][53] was adopted by the National Assembly on 11 November.[54] Back in 2007, the Venice Commission criticized the Serbian government for the implementation of the new constitution due to it "having all the hallmarks of hasty writing that is not close to previous standards", and in 2020, the European Commission criticized Serbia because there was no progress in the field of the judiciary.[53] After the National Assembly adopted the law, the Venice Commission issued recommendations and also expressed regret that the amendment of the law started when the constitutional referendum became inevitable.[55] The law, when implemented, will replace the 1994 referendum law,[52] and the general threshold for referendums will be abolished.[56][57] Multiple non-governmental organizations and politicians criticized the law mainly due to the abolishment of the threshold and the possibility of abusing the law on cases such as Rio Tinto.[56][58][59] A petition with 68,000 signatories was sent to the National Assembly on 24 November,[60][61] although on 25 November the law was passed by the National Assembly.[62][63] Dačić stated that the referendum law has nothing to do with Rio Tinto.[64] It was later revealed that Vučić signed the referendum law on the day it was passed,[65] which he confirmed to be true.[66]

Simultaneously, an expropriation law was also in discussion.[67][68] It mostly gained negative coverage,[67] and according to Bojana Novaković, it will allegedly target around 100,000 citizens in Serbia,[69] and some locals have stated that they have been threatened with expropriation.[70] The National Convention of the European Union has called the government to withdraw the law,[71] and the law was criticized by many politicians, activists and lawyers.[72][73][74] On 23 and 24 November, mass protests were held in Belgrade over the referendum and expropriation laws.[75][76][77] Protesters demanded the laws be withdrawn,[76] and threatened, if the expropriation law gets implemented, to block major roads across Serbia on 27 November for one hour.[78][79] The agriculture minister Branislav Nedimović stated that the expropriation law will only cover construction and reconstruction projects,[80] while Vučić and Brnabić stated that it has nothing to do with Rio Tinto.[81][82] The law was passed by the National Assembly on 26 November after being projected to be passed.[83][84][85] On 27 November, alongside the protests, one-hour blockades of roads were held in cities across Serbia.[86][87] Incidents occurred during the road blockages, mainly caused by the police and violent groups.[88][89][90] Following the protests, more organizations have called on Vučić to not sign the expropriation law,[91] while Vučić himself has stated that he will wait for his legal team's opinion before signing the laws.[92] Mass protests were also held on 28 November.[93]

Inter-party dialogues on electoral conditions[]

The dialogue between the non-parliamentary opposition parties and government parties to improve election conditions began on 28 April,[94][95] while some parties declined to participate in talks on electoral conditions with delegators from the parliament of the European Union.[96][97] Initially, the talks with delegators from the parliament of the European Union were supposed to begin in early June,[98] although they were later postponed to begin around 8 July.[99] Work board dialogues began on 18 May,[100] continued through the following months, and ended on 29 October.[101][102][103]

A dialogue regarding the status of Kosovo in which Vučić participated was held on 21 June.[104][105] It was deemed as "constructive" by Obradović.[106] A day later, Vučić made a statement in which he thanked the leaders of parties that participated in the dialogue regarding the status of Kosovo but at the same time he criticized the opposition that wanted to participate in the dialogue with the European Union.[107] In late July, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats group condemned the attacks made by the Serbian government on the opposition.[108]

A patronage with the European Union was announced on 7 July,[109] and it began two days later.[110] On 9 July, Tanja Fajon, Vladimír Bilčík and Knut Fleckenstein met with Vučić in Belgrade,[111] and soon after the discussion began, with Vladimir Orlić, Sandra Božić, and Marijan Rističević representing SNS.[112] After the meeting, delegators filed a proposal to improve electoral conditions.[113] The draft document was revealed to the opposition on 1 September and was met with critical statements from opposition leaders and parties,[114][115] with Dragan Đilas and Janko Veselinović stating that "it's not acceptable to the citizens of Serbia" and that they are giving them another chance to improve the document.[116][117][118] Most opposition leaders and some government figures such as Vučić, have announced that they won't sign the document unless it is improved.[115][119][120] On 17 September, Vučić and Dačić met again with the delegators.[121][122] Đorđe Milićević, the head of the Socialist Party of Serbia parliamentary group, and Vučić confirmed that they are ready to accept most of the suggestions in the document.[123][124] A day later, Đorđe Vukadinović and members of the People's Party commented that the document is "completely unacceptable",[125] and a majority of the opposition parties have stated that they reject the document.[126][127] Political parties such as Party of Freedom and Justice, Movement for Reversal, Movement of Free Citizens, and Democratic Party announced that they have abandoned future dialogues because "the government rejected all proposals concerning elections and opposition representation in the media".[128][129] Otherwise, Vučić and Dačić criticized the opposition because of their approaches to the dialogue.[130][131] Dačić announced that the government accepted the suggestions of forming a media monitoring body and the change of the composition of the Election Commission of the Republic (RIK).[128] On 20 September, Dačić stated that the inter-party dialogue with the participation of delegators from the parliament of the European Union had ended.[132]

On 27 August, Dačić announced that the electoral threshold will remain at the current 3 percent.[133] On 2 September, it was reported that the document regarding the improvement of elections was presented to the opposition parties.[134] Opposition leaders gave mixed responses to the document,[135][136][137] although they stated that they will amendment the document until 6 September.[134] On 10 September, the fourteenth work board dialogue was held in which opposition leaders agreed to postpone the signatory meeting.[138][139] Initially, the signatory meeting was supposed to be held on 11 September,[140][141] although Saša Radulović, the leader of the Enough is Enough party, suggested to postpone the signatory meeting due to the "Ecological Uprising" protest and the solemn celebration of the officers which were held on that day.[139] Miloš Jovanović, the president of the Democratic Party of Serbia, stated on 18 September that the signatory meeting wouldbe held sometime in the next two weeks,[142] although on the next work board which was held on 23 October,[143] Dačić announced that the signatory would be held before 30 October.[144][145]

The signatory meeting was held on 29 October,[146][147] which was signed by representatives of Dveri, Democratic Party of Serbia, POKS, Enough is Enough, Healthy Serbia and Serbian Radical Party.[146] Obradović initially stated that he wouldn't sign the document unless all the requirements were met,[148][149] including Radulović.[150] Other opposition representatives were satisfied with the document.[150] In the final document it is stated that the minimum number of collected signatories for minority ballots is set to 5,000,[151] more funding will be given to election participants,[151] the obligation to post a financial guarantee for the participants in the election has been abolished,[151] the right of free use of all halls of local communities for pre-election activities for the opposition,[151] prohibition of electoral campaigning ten days before the election date,[151] increased fees for members of polling stations,[151] including composition changes of the Regulatory Body of Electronic Media (REM) and Election Commission of the Republic (RIK), and a control body for the implementation of the agreement.[151][150] In the initial document, some changes were also included in this version,[135][152] although after amendments that were submitted by the opposition, the government agreed to make changes to the composition of REM and RIK, including the creation of a control body.[134] The government declined to separate election dates and to change ballot head rules,[134] although they offered to not open any roads and factories a week before the election.[153]

Electoral system[]

The president of Serbia is elected using the two-round system and has a term of five years, although it is limited to two terms in any order of service.[154][155] If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second is held.[155] A person willing to become an official candidate needs to collect 10,000 signatures.[156] In addition, to become a candidate, a person needs to be at least 18 years old and possess Serbian citizenship, while it is not necessary to have been born in Serbia.[156]

The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by closed-list proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with an electoral threshold of 3% of all votes cast,[157] although the threshold is waived for ethnic minority parties.[156] Minority ballots need at least 5,000 signatories in order to qualify on ballot while non-minority ballots need 10,000.[151]

The incumbent president Vučić will announce the parliamentary and presidential elections on 15 February and 2 March in order to hold the elections on the same day.[151] After the election has been called, the National Assembly will be dissolved and it will remain dissolved until the confirmation of the new one.[151]

Political parties[]

See also: List of political parties in Serbia

The table below lists political parties represented in the National Assembly after the 2020 parliamentary election.

Name Ideology Political position Leader 2020 result
Votes (%) Seats
SNS–led coalition Populism Big tent Aleksandar Vučić 60.65%
188 / 250
SPS–JS–KP–ZS Social democracy Centre-left Ivica Dačić 10.38%
32 / 250
Serbian Patriotic Alliance National conservatism Right-wing Aleksandar Šapić 3.83%
11 / 250
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians Minority politics István Pásztor 2.23%
9 / 250
SPP–DPM Muamer Zukorlić 1%
4 / 250
Party for Democratic Action Shaip Kamberi 0.82%
3 / 250
SDA Sandžak Sulejman Ugljanin 0.77%
3 / 250

Pre-election composition[]

Serbian Parliament after 2020 election.svg
Party Seats
For Our Children 180
SPS–KP–ZS 24
Party of United Pensioners of Serbia 9
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians 9
United Serbia 8
Social Democratic Party of Serbia 8
PDD–SDA S 6
SPP–USS 5
Independent 1

Campaign[]

Participating parties and coalitions[]

SNS and its coalition partners secured a supermajority in the parliament after the 2020 parliamentary election, with no official opposition represented in the parliament itself.[158] In early May 2021, Vučić sent a proposal to Aleksandar Šapić about the merging of the Serbian Patriotic Alliance (SPAS) into SNS, which was accepted on the same day by Šapić.[159][160] SPAS held inter-party talks during this period and its president Šapić announced that the party has been dissolved on 26 May.[161][162] On 29 May, Šapić was promoted to the position of vice president of SNS,[163] and subsequently a declaration between SPAS and SNS was also formed.[164] In early June, MPs that were a part of the SPAS parliamentary group joined SNS.[165] In late October, SNS announced that they will continue their cooperation with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).[166]

In late 2020, a right-wing pre-election coalition was supposed to be formed in which POKS, National Network (NM) led by Vladan Glišić, Serbian Party Oathkeepers (SSZ) and Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) would take part,[167] although this coalition idea was later dismissed, and a coalition and party protocol were formed and signed shortly after, in January 2021 right-wing parties DSS and POKS signed an agreement,[168] and in May, with 19 other movements and civic groups, they formed the National Democratic Alternative (NADA),[169] while the far-right parties NM and SSZ signed a protocol between two parties in February 2021.[170] Mlađan Đorđević stated that his Liberation Movement will boycott the elections.[171]

In May 2021, the Social Democratic Party (SDS) led by Boris Tadić signed a protocol with the centrist coalition "Toleration".[172] In November, it was announced that Democrats of Serbia, a splinter from the Democratic Party (DS) that was formed in February 2021,[173] will hold a joint session on 27 November with SDS regarding their merger into the party.[174][175] In late May, the New Party (Nova) formed a coalition with a minor movement led by Marko Bastać,[176] but the coalition was later dissolved in September.[177]

Joint lists[]

In August 2020, shortly after the 2020 parliamentary election, the major opposition alliance, Alliance for Serbia, which boycotted the election,[178][179] was transformed into the United Opposition of Serbia.[180] The coalition remained divisive and was later dissolved in December 2020.[181][182] On 14 October, it was revealed that a joint list headed by the centre-left Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) is in process of formation.[183] Talks regarding the formation of a coalition were held until 23 November,[184][185] when it was announced to the public that the Party of Freedom and Justice, Democratic Party, Movement for Reversal, People's Party and Movement of Free Citizens will run on a joint list.[186][187][188] Besides these parties, VMDK, Civic Platform, United Trade Unions of Serbia "Sloga", Movement of Free Serbia, Assembly of Free Serbia and independent political activists are expected to be on the list.[189] During this period, party leaders have called for the opposition forces to run on a joint list.[190][191][192][193] Marinika Tepić was chosen as the ballot representative.[194][195]

Dveri declined to join the SSP-led list, instead opting to participate on their own,[196] although on 2 December they formed a "Patriotic bloc" with minor right-wing parties.[197][198] Dveri also called for an agreement of non-aggression between other opposition blocs.[199] Enough is Enough announced their participation in upcoming elections,[200] and in late November they started cooperating with Healthy Serbia to form a "Souverainist bloc".[201][202] Milan Stamatović stated that the bloc might be expanded to include all "patriotic" parties in order for all of them to pass the threshold.[203]

Nebojša Zelenović, the leader of the Together for Serbia formed a coalition named "Action" in which 28 minor environmentalist civic groups and political movements joined due to their support for the "Green Agreement for Serbia".[204][205] announced in mid-November that the "Ecological Uprising" movement will participate in the elections,[206][207] and on 14 November he signed an agreement with Zelenović to participate on a joint list.[208][209]

Issues[]

In late 2020, talks about the legalization of civil unions began to spread around when the human and minority rights minister Gordana Čomić stated that the discussion regarding the legalization might begin in 2021.[210] Although the talks were initially supposed to be held during the first half of 2021,[211][212][213] the talks have not yet happened and some speculated that the government abandoned the idea.[214] The Council of Europe deemed the legalization draft as positive.[215][216][217] During the During the pride week, which was held between 12 and 19 September,[218] organizers and participants voiced their support for the same-sex civil union law,[219][220][221] and on 16 September, Čomić announced that "civil unions will be legalized" but she doesn't know when.[222] Vučić stated that he won't sign the legalization and deemed the change to be "unconstitutional".[223][224][225]

In early May, Vučić stated that he won't sign off on the legalization if the National Assembly accepts the draft, stating that the change is "unconstitutional". The move for the legalization of civil unions was opposed by socially conservative parties and politicians, such as Dveri,[226] Serbian Radical Party,[227] Serbian Party Oathkeepers,[228] Vladan Glišić,[229][230] and Vuk Jeremić.[230]

Party campaigns[]

National Democratic Alternative[]

Main article: National Democratic Alternative (Serbia)

Presidential candidates

Publicly expressed interest[]

As of December 2021, the following individuals have expressed interest in running for president.

Other potential candidates[]

As of December 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy.

Declined to be candidates[]

The following individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Opinion polls[]

Parliamentary election[]

Polling organization Date of publishment SNS—led
coalition 		SPAS SPS–JS SSP NS DS PSG Action–EU NADA DJB Dveri NM–SSZ SRS Others Lead
Faktor plus 20 Dec 2021 57 9.3 12 7 4.3 2.4 1.4 3 1.4 2.2 45
ŠSM 10 Dec 2021 55.7 17.9 8.8 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.7 0.7 6.8 31.6
Demostat 2 Dec 2021 55.0 16.0 9.0 7.0 – 5.0 – 8.0 39.0
SSP–NS–DS–PSG coalition formed, beginning of the environmental protests
Faktor plus 31 Oct 2021 58.3 9.4 5.4 2.7 1.9 1.5 – 4.3 3.4 1.5 2.9 1.4 7.3 48.7
Faktor plus 29 Sep 2021 58.0 9.3 5.1 2.9 1.4 1.3 – 4.3 3.6 1.7 2.7 1.2 8.5 48.7
Faktor plus 3 Aug 2021 58.2 9.0 4.5 2.5 1.2 1.4 – 4.0 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 9.9 52.0
ŠSM 31 July 2021 53.8 7.0 6.4 4.9 1.9 1.2 – 3.9 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 13.6 46.8
Ipsos 27 June 2021 59.8 8.9 4.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 – 5.1 3.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 9.6 52.0
The Serbian Patriotic Alliance merges into the Serbian Progressive Party
Faktor plus 10 May 2021 60.0 3.4 8.1 3.3 2.2 0.4 1.5 – 3.9 3.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 7.9 51.9
Ipsos 5 April 2021 58.0 3.6 7.2 3.8 2.5 – 1.6 – 4.3 4.4 1.4 2.0 2.2 9.0 50.8
Faktor Plus 18 Feb 2021 60.3 4.2 8.3 3.2 2.4 – 1.5 – 3.7 3.8 1.5 2.2 1.4 7.5 52.0
Ipsos 1 Jan 2021 60,5 3.6 9.0 1.6 0.3 1.1 0.8 – 4.3 3.7 1.1 1.4 2.6 8.6 51.8
DW 19 Dec 2020 46.8 6.4 11.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 2.1 – 6.6 5.3 2.3 – 3.6 11.7 35.3
Faktor Plus 4 Sep 2020 59.1 5.1 9.0 3.1 2.3 – – – – – 2.0 – – 19.4 50.1
2020 election 21 June 2020 60.6 3.8 10.4 boycott 1.6 boycott [a] 2.3 boycott 1.4 2.0 12.8 50.2

Notes[]

  1. ^ POKS: 2.7; DSS: 2.24

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