2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Pat Toomey
Republican



The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. Senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a gubernatorial election, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

The election is expected to be competitive and important to determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate in 2023. This is attributed to the seat being an open Republican-held one located in a state that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.[1] Pennsylvania is seen by many Democrats as the best possible pickup of all the Class 3 seats.[2]

On October 5, 2020, incumbent two-term Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election to a third term and currently plans "to go back to the private sector" at the conclusion of his term.[3][4] Previously, he had openly said he was considering running for the governorship instead of running for re-election to the Senate.[5]

Republican primary[]

Campaign[]

Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[6] By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race's two front-runners.[7] Parnell's campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell's ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[8] Even prior to these allegations, doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's ability to fundraise, and it became widely assumed that Parnell would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[9] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the children and Parnell subsequently announced that he was suspending his campaign.[10] On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[11] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[11][12] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick prompted attacks for his past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[13]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Kathy Barnette, veteran, political commentator and nominee for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district in 2020[14][15]
  • George Bochetto, attorney and former Pennsylvania State Boxing Commissioner (1995–2002)[16][17]
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman, philanthropist and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018[18]
  • Sean Gale, candidate for the Montgomery County Commission in 2019[19][20]
  • Robert "Bobby" Jeffries, perennial candidate[21]
  • David McCormick, former CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022) and former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009)[22]
  • Mehmet Oz, cardiothoracic surgeon, host of The Dr. Oz Show, and member of the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition (2018–present)[23]
  • Carla Sands, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021)[24][25][26]
  • Everett Stern, businessman and candidate for Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016[27]
  • David Xu, business owner and veteran[28]
Republican candidates[a]

Publicly expressed interest[]

  • Kenneth Braithwaite, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2020–2021), former U.S. Ambassador to Norway (2018–2020), and former advisor to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[29]
  • Ryan Costello, former U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district (2015–2019)[30][31]
  • Keith Rothfus, former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)[32][33]
  • Kiron Skinner, Taube Professor of International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University and former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department (2018–2019)[34]

Potential[]

Withdrew[]

  • Sean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district in 2020 (endorsed McCormick)[10]
  • Craig Snyder, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[35][36][37]

Declined[]

Endorsements[]

Kathy Barnette
Executive Branch officials
  • Michael Flynn, United States National Security Advisor (2017) (Democratic)[47]
  • Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant to the President (2017)[14]
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
  • Vernon Jones, Georgia state representative (1993–2001, 2017–2021United States Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoasco) and candidate for Governor of Georgia in 2022[14]
Individuals
  • Tomi Lahren, conservative political commentator and former television host[14]
Jeff Bartos
State Executives
  • Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present)[48]
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
  • Torren Ecker, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 193st district (2019–present)[50]
  • John D. Hershey, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 82nd district (2018–present)[51]
  • R. Lee James, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 64th district (2013–present)[52]
  • Aaron Kaufer, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 120th district (2015–present)[53]
  • Dawn Keefer, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 92nd district (2015–present)[50]
  • Dan Laughlin, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 49th district (2017–present)[50]
  • Wayne Langerholc, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 35th district (2017–present)[51]
  • Bob Mensch, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 24th district (2009–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 147th district (2007–2009)[50]
  • Tommy Sankey, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 73th district (2015–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 74th district (2013–2015)[50]
  • Patrick J. Stefano, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 32nd district (2015–present)[51]
  • Jesse Topper, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 78th district (2014–present)[51]
  • Scott Wagner, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 28th district (2014–2018), Republican nominee for Governor in 2018[54]
  • Judy Ward, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 30th district (2019–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 80th district (2015–2018)[50]
Individuals
  • John D. Arnold, philanthropist and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC[55]
  • Kenneth Langone, billionaire businessman, investor, and philanthropist[55]
  • Ross Perot Jr., real estate developer[55]
Robert Jeffries
Individuals
  • Roger Stone, political consultant and lobbyist[56]
David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
  • Kellyanne Conway, Senior Counselor to the President (2017–2020)[57]
  • Hope Hicks, Counselor to the President (2020–2021), White House Communications Director (2017–2018), White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017)[57]
  • Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council[13]
  • Stephen Miller, Senior Advisor to the President (2017–2021), White House Director of Speechwriting (2017–2021)[57]
  • Matthew Pottinger, United States Deputy National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[58]
  • Dina Powell, United States Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy (2017–2018), Assistant Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs (2005–2007), Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office (2003–2005) (McCormick's wife)[57]
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary (2017–2019) White House Deputy Press Secretary (2017), 2022 candidate for Governor of Arkansas[57]
  • Tony Sayegh, United States Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Public Affairs (2017–2019)[58]
  • Jim Schultz, Associate White House Counsel (2017), General Counsel to the Governor of Pennsylvania (2012–2014)[57]
  • Cliff Sims, Senior Advisor to the Director of National Intelligence (2020–2021), Special Assistant to the President (2017–2018)[57]
  • David Urban, Chair of the American Battle Monuments Commission (2018–2021)[57]
U.S. Representatives
Party officials
Individuals
Organizations
  • Axiom Strategies[58]
Mehmet Oz
Executive Branch officials
  • Wilbur Ross, United States Secretary of Commerce (2017–2021)[13]
State Executives
  • George Pataki, Governor of New York (1995–2006)[60]
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
  • Rudy Giuliani, Mayor of New York City (1994–2001)[60]
  • Rudy Washington, Deputy Mayor of New York City (1994-1996)[60]
Party officials
  • Andrea Catsimatidis, Chair of the Manhattan Republican Party[60]
Individuals
  • John Catsimatidis, businessman and radio talk show host[60]
  • Sean Hannity, conservative political commentator (Conservative Party)[13]
  • Jean Shafiroff, socialite[60]
  • Steve Wynn, real estate developer and art collector[13]
Carla Sands
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
  • Scott Brown, 19th United States ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020), former U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013)[63][non-primary source needed]
U.S. Representatives
Sean Parnell (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[65]
U.S. Senators
  • Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[66]
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
  • Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[46]
Craig Snyder (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
  • Bill Kristol, Chief of Staff to the Vice President (1989–1993) and founder of The Weekly Standard and editor of The Bulwark[36]
  • Miles Taylor, Chief of Staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019)[70]
U.S. Representatives

Polling[]

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kathy
Barnette
Jeff
Bartos
Sean
Gale
Mehmet
Oz
Sean
Parnell
Carla
Sands
Everett
Stern
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 13–16, 2021 1,062 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 3% 1% 19% 7% 11% 51%
Echelon Insights (R) December 1–3, 2021 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 7% 4% 4% 11% 5% 0% 6%[c] 63%
November 22, 2021 Parnell withdraws from the race
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 799 (LV) ± 3.5% 7% 6% 2% 31% 8% 54%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 184 (RV) ± 8.8% 3% 2% 0% 11% 2% 3% 78%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[A] October 11–14, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 7% 27% 4% 5% 57%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 154 (RV) ± 10.9% 6% 4% 3% 14% 1% 7% 66%

Democratic primary[]

Campaign[]

The first two major Democratic candidates to announce were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[71] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[71] By July of 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[72] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate, center-left Democrat, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[73]

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[74]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Val Arkoosh, chair of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners and physician[75]
  • Kevin Baumlin, chief of Emergency and Urgent Care Services at Pennsylvania Hospital[76]
  • John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–present), former mayor of Braddock (2005–2019) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[39][77]
  • Malcolm Kenyatta, state representative for the 181st district (2019–present)[78]
  • Alexandria Khalil, member of the Jenkintown Borough Council (2019–present)[79]
  • Conor Lamb, U.S. representative for PA-17, formerly PA-18 (2018–present)[80][81]
  • Sharif Street, state senator for the 3rd district (2017–present), vice chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, son of former Mayor of Philadelphia John Street and nephew of former state senator Milton Street[82]
Democratic candidates[a]

Potential[]

  • Eugene DePasquale, former Pennsylvania Auditor General (2013–2021) and nominee for PA-10 in 2020[41]
  • Elizabeth Fiedler, state representative for the 184th district (2019–present)[29]
  • Helen Gym, member of the Philadelphia City Council (2016–present)[29]
  • Sara Innamorato, state representative for the 21st district (2019–present)[83]
  • Joe Sestak, former U.S. representative for PA-07 (2007–2011), former Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for President in 2020[84]
  • Joe Torsella, former Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2017–2021)[85][86]

Declined[]

  • Brendan Boyle, U.S. representative for PA-02; formerly PA-13 (2015–present)[87]
  • Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative for PA-04 (2019–present) (running for re-election)[88]
  • Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[89]
  • Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–present)[90]
  • Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–present) (running for Governor)[91][92]
  • Susan Wild, U.S. representative for PA-07; formerly PA-15 (2018–present) (running for re-election)[93]
  • Tom Wolf, Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–present)[94]

Withdrew[]

  • John McGuigan, former president of the Norristown Municipal Council (1994–1997)[95][96]
  • Eric Orts, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania[97]

Endorsements[]

Val Arkoosh
Organizations
John Fetterman
Labor Unions
  • United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1776[100]
  • United Steelworkers District 10[100]
Organizations
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws[100]
Individuals
  • Sean McElwee, activist[101]
Malcolm Kenyatta
State legislators
  • Jessica Benham, Pennsylvania state representative from the 36th district (2021–present)[102]
Local officials
  • Jamie Gauthier, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 3 (2020–present)[103]
  • Katherine Gilmore Richardson, Philadelphia City Councilor elected at-large (2020–present)[103]
  • Isaiah Thomas, Philadelphia City Councilor elected at-large (2020–present)[103]
Labor unions
  • American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees District Council #33[104]
  • American Federation of Teachers[105]
Organizations
Political parties
  • Working Families Party[109]
Individuals
  • Gloria Steinem, author, women's rights activist[110]
Conor Lamb
State Legislators
  • Ryan Bizzarro, Pennsylvania state representative from the 3rd district (2013–present)[111]
  • Jim Brewster, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 45th district (2010–present)[112]
  • Jay Costa, Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present), Pennsylvania state Senator from the 43rd district (1996–present), Register of Wills of Allegheny County (1992–1996)[113]
  • Frank Dermody, Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2020), Pennsylvania state representative from the 33rd district (1990–2020)[80]
  • Wayne D. Fontana, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 42rd district (2005–present), Allegheny County Councilor from the 12th district (2000–2005)[112]
  • Pam Snyder, Pennsylvania state representative from the 50th District (2013–present)[114]
  • Jake Wheatley, Pennsylvania state representative from the 19th district (2003–present)[114]
Local officials
  • Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County Executive (2012–present)[81]
  • Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–present)[115]
  • Thomas J. Murphy Jr., Mayor of Pittsburgh (1994–2006)[80]
  • Jack Stollsteimer, Delaware County District Attorney (2020–present)[116]
Labor unions
Organizations
Sharif Street
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
  • Vincent Hughes, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 7th district (1994–present)[121]
  • Anthony H. Williams, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 8th district (1999–present), Democratic Whip of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present)[121]
Local officials
  • Cindy Bass, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 8 (2012–present)[121]
  • Jannie Blackwell, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 3 (1992–2020)[121]
  • Kenyatta Johnson, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 2 (2012–present)[121]
  • Curtis J. Jones Jr., Philadelphia City Councilor from District 4 (2008–present)[121]
  • Thaddeus Kirkland, Mayor of Chester, Pennsylvania (2016–present)[121]
  • Maria Quiñones-Sanchez, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 7 (2008–present)[121]
  • Jonathan Saidel, Philadelphia City Controller (1990–2006)[121]
  • John F. Street, former Mayor of Philadelphia (2000–2008), President of the Philadelphia City Council (1992–1998), Philadelphia City Councilor (1980–1998) (Street's father)[122]
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
  • Tom Wolf, 47th Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–present)[123]


Polling[]

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Val
Arkoosh
John
Fetterman
Malcolm
Kenyatta
Conor
Lamb
Sharif
Street
Other Undecided
GQR Research (D)[B] December 14–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 44% 20% 15% 2% 12%
GBAO (D)[C] November 16–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 5% 42% 15% 16% 21%
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 2% 52% 5% 12% 2% 6% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 208 (RV) ± 8.2% 4% 34% 5% 12% 5% 3% 37%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 175 (RV) ± 10.2% 6% 33% 5% 12% 0% 3% 42%
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 302 (LV) ± 6.0% 5% 40% 9% 21% 2% 8%[d] 14%

Libertarian convention[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Libertarian candidates

Withdrew[]

  • Steve Scheetz, former chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2013–2015, 2019–2021) and candidate for U.S. House in 2018 and 2020[28][125][126][127]

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[128] Tossup November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[129] Tilt R January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[130] Tossup November 3, 2021
RCP[131] Tossup January 10, 2022

Polling[]

Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Bartos (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[D] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 36% 45% 19%
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 38% 48% 14%
Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Bartos (R)
Conor
Lamb (D)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 43% 15%
Mehmet Oz vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mehmet
Oz (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[C] December 3–5, 2021 581 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 13%
Hypothetical polling
Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Sean
Parnell (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[D] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 42% 42% 16%
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 48% 12%
Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Sean
Parnell (R)
Conor
Lamb (D)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 44% 42% 14%

Notes[]

  1. ^ a b The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%
  4. ^ Houlahan with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Kenyatta's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC

References[]

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