2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2020). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings[]

Latest published ratings for competitive seats[]

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
  • Lean: clear advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
  • ("N/A" means that the source used has not provided information)
District CPVI[1] Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
March 8,
2022[3] 		IE
March 18,
2022[4] 		Sabato
March 9,
2022[5]
Alaska at-large R+9 Vacant 54.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert (R) 52.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Arizona 2 R+6 Tom O'Halleran (D) 51.6% D Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Arizona 4 D+2 Greg Stanton (D) 61.6% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Arizona 6 R+3 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
(retiring) 		55.1% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip)
California 3 R+4 New seat - Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder (D) 55.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
California 13 D+4 New seat - Lean D Likely D Lean D
California 21 D+9 Jim Costa (D) 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
California 22 D+6 David Valadao (R) 50.4% R Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 25 D+7 Raul Ruiz (D) 60.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia (R) 50.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 40 R+2 Young Kim (R) 50.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 41 R+4 Ken Calvert (R) 57.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 45 D+4 Michelle Steel (R) 51.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter (D) 53.5% D Lean D Likely D Lean D
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin (D) 53.1% D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Colorado 3 R+8 Lauren Boebert (R) 51.4% R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Colorado 7 D+3 Ed Perlmutter (D)
(retiring) 		59.1% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Colorado 8 R+1 New seat - Tossup Tossup Tossup
Connecticut 2 D+2 Joe Courtney (D) 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
Connecticut 5 D+2 Jahana Hayes (D) 55.1% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop (D) 59.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Georgia 6 R+12 New seat - Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip)
Illinois 6 D+5 Sean Casten (D) and Marie Newman (D) - Lean D Likely D Likely D
Illinois 11 D+5 Bill Foster (D) 63.3% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Illinois 13 D+4 New seat - Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Illinois 14 D+4 Lauren Underwood (D) 50.7% D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Illinois 17 D+3 Cheri Bustos (D)
(retiring) 		52.0% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup
Indiana 1 D+4 Frank J. Mrvan (D) 56.6% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 49.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson (R) 51.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Iowa 3 R+3 Cindy Axne (D) 48.9% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Kansas 3 R+2 Sharice Davids (D) 53.6% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden (D) 53.0% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 1 R+4 Andy Harris (R) 63.4% R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Michigan 3 D+1 Peter Meijer (R) 53.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup
Michigan 4 R+5 Bill Huizenga (R) and Fred Upton (R) - Solid R Solid R Likely R
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin (D) 50.9% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup
Michigan 8 R+1 Dan Kildee (D) 54.4% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup
Michigan 10 R+3 New seat – Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Minnesota 1 R+8 Vacant 48.6% R Likely R Solid R Safe R
Minnesota 2 EVEN Angie Craig (D) 48.2% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup
Montana 1 R+7 New seat - Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+1 Don Bacon (R) 50.8% R Likely R Lean R Lean R
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus (D) 61.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Nevada 3 D+2 Susie Lee (D) 48.8% D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford (D) 50.7% D Lean D Likely D Lean D
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim (D) 53.2% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer (D) 53.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
New Jersey 7 R+2 Tom Malinowski (D) 50.6% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip)
New Jersey 11 D+5 Mikie Sherrill (D) 53.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
New Mexico 1 D+4 Melanie Stansbury (D) 60.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
New Mexico 2 D+2 Yvette Herrell (R) 53.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup
New Mexico 3 D+4 Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) 58.7% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New York 1 D+2 Lee Zeldin (R)
(retiring) 		54.9% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup
New York 3 D+5 Thomas Suozzi (D)
(retiring) 		56.0% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
New York 4 D+4 Kathleen Rice (D)
(retiring) 		56.1% D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New York 11 D+3 Nicole Malliotakis (R) 53.2% R Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup
New York 18 D+1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 55.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D
New York 19 D+1 Antonio Delgado (D) 54.8% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New York 22 D+8 John Katko (R)
(retiring) 		53.1% R Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
North Carolina 1 D+3 G. K. Butterfield (D)
(retiring) 		54.2% D Likely D Lean D Lean D
North Carolina 6 D+4 Kathy Manning (D) 62.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
North Carolina 9 R+6 Richard Hudson (R) 53.3% R Solid R Solid R Likely R
North Carolina 13 R+2 New seat – Tossup Tossup Tossup
North Carolina 14 D+5 New seat – Solid D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 4 D+4 Peter DeFazio (D)
(retiring) 		51.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 5 D+1 Kurt Schrader (D) 51.9% D Lean D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 6 D+4 New seat – Likely D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 56.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Pennsylvania 6 D+5 Chrissy Houlahan (D) 56.1% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild (D) 51.9% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright (D) 51.8% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry (R) 53.3% R Likely R Solid R Likely R
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Conor Lamb (D)
(retiring) 		51.1% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup
Rhode Island 2 D+4 James Langevin (D)
(retiring) 		58.2% D Lean D N/A Likely D
Tennessee 5 R+8 Jim Cooper (D)
(retiring) 		100.0% D Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip)
Texas 15 D+1 New seat – Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Texas 23 R+5 Tony Gonzales (R) 50.6% R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Texas 28 D+5 Henry Cuellar (D) 58.3% D Tossup Lean D Tossup
Texas 34 D+12 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 50.5% D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Virginia 2 R+3 Elaine Luria (D) 51.6% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger (D) 50.8% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D
Washington 3 R+5 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 56.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier (D) 51.7% D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil (R) 59.3% R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Ron Kind (D)
(retiring) 		51.3% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
District 2021 CPVI Incumbent Previous result Cook IE Sabato

Generic ballot polls[]

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Lead
RealClearPolitics March 9, 2022 Feb 3 – Mar 8, 2022 43.1% 46.8% +3.7%
FiveThirtyEight March 9, 2022 Jun 16, 2021 - Mar 8, 2022 42.6% 44.9% +2.3%
Average 42.9% 45.9% +3.0%

Party listings[]

The campaign committees for the two parties (the DCCC and NRCC) publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic-held seats[]

The NRCC is now targeting 70 Democrat held seats.[6] They released their initial list February 10, 2021[7] and added 10 seats to the initial list on May 4, 2021[8] and a further 13 seats November 3, 2021 after the favorable election night results. The first two lists were published before redistricting, however the 3rd list begins to incorporate redistricting impacts such as Colorado's 7th congressional district. Seats in bold were included in the DCCC's frontline seats in March 2021, or were added in January 2022.[9][10]

Republican target seats
  1. Arizona 1: Tom O'Halleran
  2. Arizona 2: Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring)
  3. Arizona 9: Greg Stanton
  4. California 3:
  5. California 7: Ami Bera
  6. California 10: Josh Harder
  7. California 20: Jim Costa
  8. California 36: Raul Ruiz
  9. California 47: Katie Porter
  10. California 49: Mike Levin
  11. Colorado 7: Ed Perlmutter (retiring)
  12. Connecticut 2: Joe Courtney
  13. Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
  14. Florida 7: Stephanie Murphy (retiring)
  15. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  16. Florida 13: Charlie Crist (retiring)
  17. Georgia 2: Sanford Bishop
  18. Georgia 6: Lucy McBath (running in Georgia's 7th congressional district)
  19. Georgia 7: Carolyn Bourdeaux
  20. Illinois 3: Marie Newman
  21. Illinois 6: Sean Casten
  22. Illinois 14: Lauren Underwood
  23. Illinois 17: Cheri Bustos (retiring)
  24. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  25. Iowa 3: Cindy Axne
  26. Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
  27. Maine 2: Jared Golden
  28. Maryland 6: David Trone
  29. Michigan 5: Dan Kildee
  30. Michigan 8: Elissa Slotkin
  31. Michigan 11: Haley Stevens
  32. Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
  33. Minnesota 3: Dean Phillips
  34. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  35. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  36. New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
  37. New Hampshire 2: Annie Kuster
  38. New Jersey 3: Andy Kim
  39. New Jersey 5: Josh Gottheimer
  40. New Jersey 7: Tom Malinowski
  41. New Jersey 11: Mikie Sherrill
  42. New Mexico 3: Teresa Leger Fernandez
  43. New York 3: Thomas Suozzi
  44. New York 4: Kathleen Rice (retiring)
  45. New York 18: Sean Patrick Maloney
  46. New York 19: Antonio Delgado
  47. New York 20: Paul Tonko
  48. New York 25: Joe Morelle
  49. New York 26: Brian Higgins
  50. North Carolina 2: G.K. Butterfield (retiring)
  51. North Carolina 2: Deborah Ross
  52. Ohio 13: Tim Ryan (retiring)
  53. Oregon 4: Peter DeFazio (retiring)
  54. Oregon 5: Kurt Schrader
  55. Pennsylvania 4: Madeleine Dean
  56. Pennsylvania 6: Chrissy Houlahan
  57. Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
  58. Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
  59. Pennsylvania 17: Conor Lamb (retiring)
  60. Tennessee 5: Jim Cooper
  61. Texas 7: Lizzie Fletcher
  62. Texas 15: Vicente Gonzalez (running in Texas's 34th congressional district)
  63. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
  64. Texas 32: Colin Allred
  65. Texas 34: Filemon Vela (retiring)
  66. Virginia 2: Elaine Luria
  67. Virginia 7: Abigail Spanberger
  68. Virginia 10: Jennifer Wexton
  69. Washington 8: Kim Schrier
  70. Wisconsin 3: Ron Kind (retiring)

Republican-held seats[]

On April 6, 2021, the DCCC released their list of target seats, including open and Republican-held seats.[11] This list was published before redistricting. Several seats were added in January 2022.[12][13]

Democratic target seats
  1. Arizona 1: David Schweikert
  2. California 22: David Valadao
  3. California 27: Mike Garcia
  4. California 40: Young Kim
  5. California 41: Ken Calvert
  6. California 45: Michelle Steel
  7. Florida 26: Carlos Giménez
  8. Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
  9. Indiana 5: Victoria Spartz
  10. Iowa 1: Ashley Hinson
  11. Iowa 2: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  12. Maryland 1: Andy Harris
  13. Michigan 3: Peter Meijer
  14. Missouri 2: Ann Wagner
  15. Nebraska 2: Don Bacon
  16. New Mexico 2: Yvette Herrell
  17. New York 2: Andrew Garbarino
  18. New York 22: Claudia Tenney
  19. New York 24: John Katko (retiring)
  20. Ohio 1: Steve Chabot
  21. Ohio 13: Anthony Gonzalez (retiring)
  22. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
  23. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
  24. Texas 23: Tony Gonzales
  25. Texas 24: Beth Van Duyne
  26. Utah 4: Burgess Owens

References[]

  1. ^ "Enacted Maps and 2022 Ratings". The Cook Political Report. October 1, 2021. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  2. ^ "House election results 2020". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  3. ^ "2022 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
  4. ^ "2022 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  5. ^ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 14, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
  6. ^ "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 13 New Targets". 3 November 2021.
  7. ^ "NRCC Announces 47 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities for 2022 Cycle". NRCC. February 10, 2021. Retrieved February 22, 2021.
  8. ^ "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 10 New Targets Following Reapportionment". nrcc.org. NRCC. 4 May 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  9. ^ "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". DCCC. March 1, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
  10. ^ "DCCC expands list of vulnerable House Democrats". The Hill. January 27, 2022.
  11. ^ "DCCC Announces 2021-2022 Districts In Play". dccc.org. DCCC. April 6, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
  12. ^ "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". nbcnews.com. NBC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  13. ^ >"DCCC Announces Changes To 2022 House Battlefield". dccc.org. DCCC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 29, 2022.
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