Blue wall (British politics)

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The blue wall is a term used in British politics to describe a set of parliamentary constituencies in southern England which have traditionally voted for the Conservative Party, but generally opposed Brexit and are seen as being potentially vulnerable to gains either by the Liberal Democrats or the Labour Party.[1] This shift was noticeable in the UK general elections of 2017 (when Labour gained Canterbury, which had had a Conservative MP since 1918) and 2019 (when the Liberal Democrats made inroads in Esher and Walton).

Overview[]

The "Blue wall" is the inverse of the "red wall", a term coined in August 2019 to describe a set of constituencies in northern England, the Midlands and Wales that had long been held by Labour, and many of which were later gained by the Conservatives at the 2019 election.[2][3] YouGov defines the blue wall as seats which are "currently held by the Conservatives; voted to Remain in 2016; and have a higher-than-average concentration of degree holders in the population (25%+)."[4][5]

The term saw significant use following the 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election, in which the Liberal Democrats overturned a large Conservative majority; Ed Davey, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats, knocked down a literal blue wall of bricks with an orange mallet to symbolise his party's victory.[6] He said afterwards that he believed "the blue wall in the south can be taken by the Liberal Democrats in large numbers of constituencies."[7] In July 2021, Davey started the process of selecting parliamentary candidates in blue wall seats[8] and the party revealed its first candidate, for Guildford, the following month.[9]

Towards December 2021, with the 2021 North Shropshire by-election, the usage of this term has evolved to mean any seat which the Conservative Party has traditionally held.[10] The evolved usage has been demonstrated by Davey describing the North Shropshire seat as being another seat falling from the blue wall.[11]

Blue wall constituencies[]

The following constituencies, among others, are considered part of the blue wall.

Constituency County % Remain
in 2016 EU referendum 		2015 result 2017 result 2019 result 2021 by-election Description
Canterbury Kent 54.7% Con +18.4 Lab +0.3 Lab +3.1 Held by the Conservatives from 1918 to 2017
Chesham and Amersham Buckinghamshire 55.0% Con +45.4 Con +40.1 Con +29.1 LD +21.2 Held by the Conservatives from 1974 to 2021
Chipping Barnet Greater London 59.1% Con +14.5 Con +0.6 Con +2.1 Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1974
Cities of London and Westminster Greater London 71.4% Con +26.7 Con +8.2 Con +9.3 Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1950
Esher and Walton Surrey 58.4% Con +50.2 Con +38.9 Con +4.4 Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997
Guildford Surrey 58.9% Con +41.6 Con +30.7 Con +5.7 Held by the Conservatives since 2005 and from 1910 to 2001
North Shropshire Shropshire 40.2% Con +31.6 Con +29.4 Con +40.6 LD +15.6 Held by the Conservatives from 1983 to 2021
Putney Greater London 73.2% Con +23.8 Con +3.3 Lab +9.4 Held by the Conservatives from 2005 to 2019
South Cambridgeshire Cambridgeshire 61.6% Con +33.5 Con +24.6 Con +4.3 Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997
St Albans Hertfordshire 62.6% Con +23.3 Con +10.7 LD +10.9 Held by the Conservatives from 2005 to 2019
Wimbledon Greater London 70.6% Con +26.1 Con +10.9 Con +1.2 Held by the Conservatives since 2005
Wycombe Buckinghamshire 52.0% Con +28.9 Con +12.3 Con +7.7 Held by the Conservatives since 1951

Opinion polling[]

Graph of opinion polls conducted
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lib Dem Lab Green Other Lead
31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium Greenpeace 1,000 43% 14% 34% 5% 4% 9%
6–18 Sep 2021 YouGov N/A 841 45% 15% 26% 11% 4% 19%
20–28 Jul 2021 YouGov N/A 1,141 44% 18% 24% 9% 6% 20%
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 52% 24% 20% 2% 2% 28%

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ Curtice, John (2021). "Is there a Conservative 'blue wall'?". IPPR Progressive Review. 28 (2): 194–203. doi:10.1111/newe.12253. ISSN 2573-2331.
  2. ^ Buckley, Mike (21 June 2021). "Red Wall or Blue Wall?". Byline Times. Archived from the original on 4 August 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
  3. ^ Jeffrey, Luke (21 May 2021). "Crumbling in the Blue Wall: Why the south could be a headache for the Tories". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 14 November 2021.
  4. ^ English, Patrick (30 July 2021). "The first ever poll of the so-called 'Blue Wall' finds the Conservatives struggling in their traditional heartland seats". YouGov. Archived from the original on 30 July 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
  5. ^ Wheeler, Richard (31 July 2021). "Conservatives at risk of losing seats in 'blue wall' heartlands, YouGov poll suggests". The Independent. Archived from the original on 5 August 2021. Retrieved 5 August 2021.
  6. ^ Savage, Michael (19 June 2021). "The blue wall: what next for the Tories after a shock byelection defeat?". The Observer. Archived from the original on 20 June 2021. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
  7. ^ Stone, Jon (20 June 2021). "Ed Davey says Lib Dems could win 'dozens' of blue wall seats from Tories after by-election win". The Independent. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
  8. ^ Gye, Hugo (15 July 2021). "Liberal Democrats start picking 'blue wall' candidates for next election in bid to keep up pressure on Tories". i. Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
  9. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (25 August 2021). "Lib Dems Eye Up Another 'Blue Wall' Win With Selection Of First General Election Candidate". HuffPost UK. Retrieved 4 October 2021.
  10. ^ Drury, Colin (11 December 2021). "The blue wall falling? Safe Tory seat up for grabs amid growing voter disquiet in North Shropshire by-election". The Independent. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
  11. ^ Gilholy, Georgia (17 December 2021). "Lib Dems claim voters have 'moved on from Brexit' after North Shropshire win". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
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