2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election

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2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election
← 2017 On or before 5 May 2022
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
46 seats needed for a majority
 
Official portrait of Sir Jeffrey M. Donaldson crop 2.jpg
Michelle O'Neill (cropped from Martin McGuinness, Michelle O'Neill, Mary Lou McDonald and Gerry Adams).jpg
Colum Eastwood MLA.JPG
Leader Jeffrey Donaldson Michelle O'Neill[n 1] Colum Eastwood
Party DUP Sinn Féin SDLP
Last election 28 seats, 28.1% 27 seats, 27.9% 12 seats, 11.9%
 
Doug Beattie.png
Naomi Long MLA.jpg
Clare Bailey, 2011 (headshot).png
Leader Doug Beattie Naomi Long Clare Bailey
Party UUP Alliance Green (NI)
Last election 10 seats, 12.9% 8 seats, 9.1% 2 seats, 2.3%
 
JimAllister (cropped).jpg
Eamonn McCann (cropped).jpg
Leader Jim Allister Eamonn McCann[n 2]
Party TUV People Before Profit
Last election 1 seat, 2.6% 1 seat, 1.8%
Incumbent First Minister and
deputy First Minister

Paul Givan (DUP) &
Michelle O'Neill (SF)


The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election is expected to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly. It will be the seventh assembly election since the assembly was established in 1998.

Eight parties had MLAs in the sixth assembly, among them the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), latterly led by Jeffrey Donaldson; Sinn Féin, led by Michelle O'Neill; the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), latterly led by Doug Beattie; the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), led by Colum Eastwood; Alliance, led by Naomi Long; the Greens, led by Clare Bailey; People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership; and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), led by Jim Allister.

Background[]

In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter.[2] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[3] which would be 5 May 2022. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

In 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU, the process of withdrawal held particular uncertainty for Northern Ireland due to the potential for customs on the UK-Republic of Ireland border. Meanwhile, an early election was held to the Northern Ireland assembly in March 2017. After the election, Sinn Féin stated that it would not return to a power-sharing arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party without significant changes in the party's approach, including Foster not becoming First Minister until an investigation into the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal was complete.[4] Over the next few years, the deadline to form an executive was repeatedly extended as negotiations continued with no success.[5][6][7][8][9]

On 18 April 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May called for a general election to be held on 8 June 2017.[10] The Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority and sought a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP to remain in government. The DUP and the Conservatives reached an agreement on 26 June.[11]

In 2019 the UK, experienced significant political turbulence over the question of how to proceed with Brexit. The European Parliament election in May 2019 saw the Alliance Party take the third MEP place from the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). DUP support for the Conservative government broke down with disagreements over the government's Brexit plans. The Conservative government sought a new election, held in December 2019, which they won with a large majority. In Northern Ireland, for the first time, traditional Irish nationalist parties won more seats than traditional unionist parties. The SDLP and Alliance returned to the House of Commons, while the DUP and Sinn Féin saw vote share declines of more than 5%.

A DUP/Sinn Féin executive was re-established on 10 January 2020, forestalling an immediate new election.[12] By the end of February 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was confirmed to have spread to Northern Ireland.[13]

On 28 April 2021, Arlene Foster announced that she would be resigning as DUP leader on 28 May and First Minister in June 2021 after more than 20 DUP MLAs and four DUP MPs signed a letter "...voicing no confidence in her leadership".[14] Edwin Poots narrowly won the subsequent May 2021 DUP leadership election, but announced his resignation 21 days later.[15] The runner-up in the election, Jeffrey Donaldson, stood unopposed in the June 2021 DUP leadership election and with no other candidates the party chose not to hold a ballot (some parties still do a leadership vote or ballot with one candidate with the other option to re-open nominations). Donaldson was ratified as the party's leader on 30 June 2021.[16] On 8 May 2021, Steve Aiken announced his resignation as leader of the UUP.[17] On 17 May, Doug Beattie was elected as UUP leader after standing unopposed.[18]

On 9 September, the DUP threatened to pull out of Stormont's power-sharing government, triggering a snap election "within weeks", unless the Northern Ireland Protocol was scrapped. Donaldson warned: "I say not as a threat but as a matter of political reality that our political institutions will not survive a failure to resolve the problems the Protocol has created."[19] The following week, SDLP leader Colum Eastwood accused the DUP of having a "petulant strop" and called for a new law to stop an early election. He told peers that the "delicate constitutional balance" in Northern Ireland was "too fragile for people to play games with".[20]

Members not seeking re-election[]

MLA Constituency/Region First elected
or co-opted 		Party Date announced
Trevor Lunn Lagan Valley 2007 Independent[n 3] 22 February 2021[21]
Emma Rogan South Down 2017 Sinn Féin 19 May 2021[22]
Sinéad Bradley 2016 SDLP 24 May 2021[23]
Alex Maskey Belfast West 1998 Sinn Féin 5 August 2021[24]
Chris Lyttle Belfast East 2010 Alliance 29 October 2021[25]
William Humphrey Belfast North 2010 DUP 3 December 2021[26]

Opinion polls[]

Graphical summary[]

Local regression of polls conducted
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		DUP U SF N UUP U SDLP N APNI O TUV U Green O PBP O Con U Other Lead
5–11 Nov 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,298 18% 24% 14% 12% 15% 11% 2% 2% N/A 2% 6%
21–29 Oct 2021 University of Liverpool N/A 1,002 20.6% 23.5% 13.0% 11.4% 17.3% 5.6% 3.9% N/A N/A 4.7% 2.9%
20–23 Aug 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,403 13% 25% 16% 13% 13% 14% 2% 2% N/A 2% 9%
30 Jun 2021 Jeffrey Donaldson becomes leader of the Democratic Unionist Party[27]
17 May 2021 Doug Beattie is elected leader of the Ulster Unionist Party[28]
14–17 May 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,072 16% 25% 14% 12% 16% 11% 2% 2% N/A 2% 9%
14 May 2021 Edwin Poots is elected leader of the Democratic Unionist Party[29]
22–25 Jan 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,295 19% 24% 12% 13% 18% 10% 2% 1% N/A 4% 5%
2–5 Oct 2020 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,961 23% 24% 12% 13% 16% 6% 3% 2% N/A 1% 1%
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union[30]
11 Jan 2020 The Executive is re-established[31]
12 Dec 2019 United Kingdom general election[32]
9 Nov 2019 Steve Aiken becomes leader of the Ulster Unionist Party[33]
23 May 2019 European Parliament election[34]
2 May 2019 Local elections[35]
23–26 Feb 2018 LucidTalk Northern Slant 2,079 33.6% 32.4% 10.3% 8.6% 8.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 1.2%
1–4 Dec 2017 LucidTalk GUE/NGL 2,079 33.7% 32.8% 8.9% 8.6% 7.9% 1.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 3.5% 0.9%
8–11 Sep 2017 LucidTalk N/A 2,080 35.5% 31.2% 9.6% 9.4% 8.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 1.1% 4.3%
2 Mar 2017 2017 Assembly election – – 28.1% 27.9% 12.9% 11.9% 9.1% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% 0.3% 3.3% 0.2%

* (U): Unionist, (N): Nationalist, (O): Other

See also[]

Footnotes[]

  1. ^ Sinn Féin's president is Mary Lou McDonald but she is not a member of the Assembly. O'Neill is the party's vice president and deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland.
  2. ^ People Before Profit has a collective leadership but for the purposes of registration to the UK Electoral Commission Eamonn McCann is registered as the party's leader in Northern Ireland.[1]
  3. ^ Originally elected as Alliance

References[]

  1. ^ "Registration Summary". The Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 4 June 2016. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  2. ^ "Northern Ireland Assembly elections put back to 2016". BBC News Online. 10 May 2013. Archived from the original on 9 June 2013. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
  3. ^ "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  4. ^ "'No revolt within DUP,' says Foster". BBC News. 6 March 2017. Archived from the original on 6 March 2017.
  5. ^ Kroet, Cynthia (27 March 2017). "No Snap Election in Northern Ireland After Talks Collapse". Politico. Archived from the original on 27 March 2017. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  6. ^ "Stormont talks: Direct rule or election 'if no deal'". BBC News. 12 April 2017. Archived from the original on 6 October 2018. Retrieved 21 July 2018.
  7. ^ "Stormont power-sharing talks deadline set for 29 June". BBC News. 21 April 2017. Archived from the original on 21 April 2017.
  8. ^ "Stormont talks: Brokenshire to 'reflect' amid ongoing deadlock". BBC News. 4 July 2017. Archived from the original on 4 July 2017.
  9. ^ "Talks to end NI devolution deadlock resume". BBC News. 2 January 2020. Archived from the original on 9 January 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
  10. ^ "The moment PM called for general election". BBC News. 18 April 2017. Retrieved 27 December 2021.
  11. ^ "Conservatives agree pact with DUP to support May government". BBC News. 26 June 2017. Archived from the original on 28 July 2019. Retrieved 26 June 2017.
  12. ^ Gorman, Sophie (11 January 2020). "'Cautious optimism': Northern Ireland's government restored after 3-year deadlock". France 24. Archived from the original on 20 September 2021. Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  13. ^ "First Northern Ireland coronavirus case confirmed as 'drive-through' test centre set up at Antrim hospital". Belfast Telegraph. Archived from the original on 1 May 2020. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  14. ^ "Arlene Foster announces resignation as DUP leader and NI first minister". BBC News. 28 April 2021. Archived from the original on 1 May 2021. Retrieved 6 May 2021.
  15. ^ "Poots announces resignation as DUP leader". Reuters. Archived from the original on 17 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  16. ^ "DUP leadership: Sir Jeffrey Donaldson ratified as party leader". BBC News. 30 June 2021. Archived from the original on 1 July 2021. Retrieved 23 July 2021.
  17. ^ Smith, Ryan (8 May 2021). "Steve Aiken to resign as UUP leader". BelfastLive. Archived from the original on 11 May 2021. Retrieved 11 May 2021.
  18. ^ "Doug Beattie: Who is the new leader of the UUP?". BBC News. 17 May 2021. Archived from the original on 9 June 2021. Retrieved 9 June 2021.
  19. ^ Blevins, David (9 September 2021). "DUP threatens to trigger snap election 'within weeks' if Northern Ireland Protocol remains". Sky News. Archived from the original on 20 September 2021. Retrieved 19 September 2021.
  20. ^ Walker, Stephen (15 September 2021). "SDLP leader Colum Eastwood calls for new law to stop election if Stormont fails". BBC News. Archived from the original on 18 September 2021. Retrieved 19 September 2021.
  21. ^ Hughes, Brendan (22 February 2021). "Trevor Lunn MLA: I quit Alliance due to internal tensions – but I still fully support them". Belfast Live. Archived from the original on 4 March 2021. Retrieved 21 March 2021.
  22. ^ Simpson, Claire (19 May 2021). "South Down MLA Emma Rogan not chosen as Sinn Féin election candidate". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 19 May 2021. Retrieved 24 May 2021.
  23. ^ Manley, John (25 May 2021). "SDLP's Sinéad Bradley announces that she won't contest the next assembly election candidate". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 25 May 2021. Retrieved 25 May 2021.
  24. ^ Preston, Allan (5 August 2021). "Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey announces retirement". Belfast Telegraph. Archived from the original on 5 August 2021. Retrieved 5 August 2021.
  25. ^ Bain, Mark (29 October 2021). "Alliance MLA Chris Lyttle to step down". Belfast Telegraph. Archived from the original on 29 October 2021. Retrieved 29 October 2021.
  26. ^ Breen, Suzanne (3 December 2021). "DUP stalwart Humphrey to step down at next election". Belfast Telegraph. Archived from the original on 3 December 2021. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
  27. ^ "DUP leadership: Sir Jeffrey Donaldson ratified as party leader". BBC News. 30 June 2021. Archived from the original on 1 July 2021. Retrieved 1 July 2021.
  28. ^ "Doug Beattie is elected new leader of Ulster Unionist Party". BBC News. 17 May 2021. Archived from the original on 17 May 2021. Retrieved 17 May 2021.
  29. ^ "Edwin Poots is elected DUP leader". BBC News. 14 May 2021. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  30. ^ "Brexit: UK leaves the European Union". BBC News. 1 February 2020. Archived from the original on 14 March 2020. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  31. ^ "Deal To See Restored Government In Northern Ireland Tomorrow". GOV.UK. Archived from the original on 14 June 2021. Retrieved 2 September 2021.
  32. ^ General Election 2019: results and analysis (PDF) (2 ed.). London: House of Commons Library. 2020. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 21 August 2021. Retrieved 2 September 2021.
  33. ^ "Steve Aiken becomes leader of the Ulster Unionist Party". BBC News. 9 November 2019. Archived from the original on 9 November 2019. Retrieved 2 September 2021.
  34. ^ European Parliament Elections 2019: results and analysis (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 2019. p. 42. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 August 2021. Retrieved 2 September 2021.
  35. ^ "Northern Ireland local elections 2019". BBC News. 5 May 2019. Archived from the original on 17 May 2019. Retrieved 2 September 2021.
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