Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election

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Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election[]

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary[]

2-point average trend line of poll results from 27 July 2002 to 17 September 2005, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  Labour
  National
  NZ First
  ACT
  Green
  United Future
  Māori

Individual polls[]

Poll Date Labour National NZ First ACT Green United
Future 		Māori Destiny
2002 election result 27 Jul 2002 41.26 20.93 10.38 7.14 7.00 6.69 N/A[note 1]
One News Colmar Brunton[1] 1 Sep 2002 40 25 10 6 7 8
TV3 NFO[2] 16 – 22 Sep 2002 49 19 10 5 8 4.7
NBR-HP Invent[3] 19 – 22 Sep 2002 44 22 9.5 8.5 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[4] 23 – 26 Sep 2002[5] 47 26 8 5 6 4
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 27 Oct 2002 51 25 7 5 5 5
NBR-HP Invent[7] 18 – 20 Oct 2002 47 24 9.1 4.9 7.5 4.7
TV3 NFO[8] 18 – 24 Nov 2002[9] 50 19 10 4.8 8 5
One News Colmar Brunton[10] 18 Nov 2002 49 26 8 6 5 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 15 Dec 2002 52 25 6 5 5 4
Herald-DigiPoll[12] 3 Feb 2003 49.6 22.9 7.2 5.9 5.1 3.3
TV3 NFO[13] 10 – 16 Feb 2003 56 21 6 4.2 6 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton[14] 17 Feb 2003 53 27 5 6 6 2
One News Colmar Brunton[15] 23 Mar 2003 51 28 6 6 5 2.9
TV3 NFO[16] 7 – 13 Apr 2003 53 26 5 4.9 6 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 13 Apr 2003 52 26 6 5 5 2
Herald-DigiPoll[18] 15–18 May 2003 49.4 28 8 5.6 5.3 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton[19] 12 – 15 May 2003 50 28 7 6 3 2
TV3 NFO[20] 9 – 16 Jun 2003[21] 52 24 8 4.5 6 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton[22] 16 Jun 2003 54 28 4
13 Jun 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed.[23]
Herald-DigiPoll Jul 2003 48.2 27.2 9.2 4.8 5.1 3.4
One News Colmar Brunton[24] 13 Jul 2003 51 28 7 6 4 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll[25] 12 – 17 Aug 2003 47.7 26.8 9.7 4.4 5 4.2
TV3 NFO[26] 12 Aug 2003 52 23 9 5 6 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton[27] 17 Aug 2003 47 27 8 6 5 2.6
One News Colmar Brunton[28] 15 Sep 2003 45 29 8 5 7 3.4
Herald-DigiPoll[29] 15 Oct 2003 43.3 22.3 12.3 6.2 9.2 2.7
TV3 NFO[30] 6 Oct 2003 46 24 10 6 8 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton[31] 14 Oct 2003 45 27 8 6 7 2.8
28 Oct 2003 – Don Brash is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[32] 9 Nov 2003 45 31 8 4 7 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[33] 14 Dec 2003 45 28 11 6 4 2.1
27 Jan 2004 – Don Brash delivers his Orewa Speech.
Herald-DigiPoll[34] 23 Feb 2004 37 45.5 5.6 2.3 5.3 1.4
3 News TNS[35] 5 Feb 2004 43 32 8 4.2 8 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton[36] 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2004[37] 38 45 6 1.3 5 1.8
3 News TNS[37] 27 – 29 Feb 2004 39 42 6 2.4 6 0.9
One News Colmar Brunton[38] 22 Mar 2004 39 49 4 2 2.2 1.7
3 News TNS[39] 25 – 31 Mar 2004 42 42 5 1.3 4.6 2.1
One News Colmar Brunton[40] 25 Apr 2004 37 48 5 1.6 5 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton[41] 17 – 20 May 2004[42] 37 47 5 3 4 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll[43] 27 May – 1 Jun 2004 36 44 5.6 2 4.7 2.4
3 News TNS[44] 27 May – 3 Jun 2004[45] 43 40 5 2 4.6 2.3
13 Jun 2004 – Rodney Hide replaces Richard Prebble as leader of ACT New Zealand.
One News Colmar Brunton[42] 21 Jun 2004 40 44 2.7 2.3 5 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[46] 5 – 8 Jul 2004 39 43 5 2.7 4 2.2
7 Jul 2004 – The Māori Party is formed.
3 News TNS[47] 31 Jul 2004 44 39 5 2.6 4.7 1.8 0.9
Sunday Star-Times/BRC[47] 1 Aug 2004 44 39 3 3
One News Colmar Brunton[48] 9 – 12 Aug 2004 44 40 4 1.6 4 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[49] 13 Sep 2004 42 42 5 2.5 4 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll[50] 28 Sep 2004 40.8 36 5 1 3.6 2.6 1.5
3 News TNS[51] 30 Sep – 6 Oct 2004 45 33 5 3.3 5.2 2.8
One News Colmar Brunton[52] 14 Oct 2004 44 39 5 3.1 4 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 15 Nov 2004 44 38 5 3.3 4 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll[54] 19 – 27 Nov 2004 50.1 30.4 5.7 2.5 5.4 2.3 1.9
3 News TNS[55] 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2004 46 32 7 2.8 5.1 2.3 2.6
One News Colmar Brunton[56] 13 Dec 2004 47 35 5 2.8 5 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll[57] 1 Feb 2005 44.8 35.3 4.7 1.6 6.9 3 1.5
3 News TNS[58] 4 Feb 2005 46 38 5 2.1 4.7 1.4 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton[59] 14 Feb 2005 44 39 5 2 4 1 2
One News Colmar Brunton[60] 14 – 17 Mar 2005 46 35 5 3 5 1 1
Herald-DigiPoll[61] 22 – 30 Mar 2005 47.7 34.5
3 News TNS[62] 15 Apr 2005 45 34 8
One News Colmar Brunton[63] 17 Apr 2005 45 38 7 3 4 1 1
One News Colmar Brunton[64] 16 May 2005 44 37 8 2 4 1 2
3 News TNS[65] 9 – 16 Jun 2005 40 36 11 1.5 6
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[66] 18 Jun 2005 40 38 8 2 5 2 2
One News Colmar Brunton[67] 19 Jun 2005 41 43 7 2 3 1 2
One News Colmar Brunton[68] 18 Jul 2005 39 42 7 1 6 1 2
3 News TNS[69] 21 – 27 Jul 2005 39 39 7 1.6 6 1.4 2.2
Roy Morgan Research[70] 21 Jul – 1 Aug 2005 38 38 10 1.5 6 2
One News Colmar Brunton[71] 1–4 Aug 2005 45 41 5 2 3 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[70] 2–15 Aug 2005 40 36.5 8 2.5 7.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[72] 15–18 Aug 2005 45 37 6 2 6 1 1 1
One News Colmar Brunton[73] 22–25 Aug 2005 43 40 5 2 7 1 1 1
3 News TNS[74] 25 – 30 Aug 2005 39 41 6 1.4 6 1.7 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton[75] 29 Aug – 1 Sep 2005 38 46 5 1 6 1 2 1
Roy Morgan Research[76] 3 – 13 Sep 2005 38.5 37 6.5 3 7.5 2.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[77] 5–8 Sep 2005 39 41 6 3 6 2 1 1
3 News TNS[78] 8 – 14 Sep 2005 40.5 38.7 6.8 0.9 6.9 3.0 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll 9 – 14 Sep 2005 44.6 37.4 4.5 1.3 4.6 2.6 2.3
One News Colmar Brunton[78] 12 – 14 Sep 2005 38 44 6 1.9 5 2.5 1.7
Fairfax Media–Nielsen 13 Sep 2005 37 43 7 1 6 3 1
2005 election result 17 Sep 2005 41.1 39.1 5.7 1.5 5.3 2.7 2.1 0.6
Poll Date Labour National NZ First ACT Green United
Future 		Māori Destiny
  1. ^ The Māori Party and Destiny New Zealand were formed in 2004 and 2003, so did not contest the 2002 election

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ "LABOUR DOWN, NATS UP IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 1 September 2002.
  2. ^ "Support For NZ PM's Labour Party Rose After July Election". Dow Jones International News. 25 September 2002.
  3. ^ "GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR NATIONAL". New Zealand Press Association. 27 September 2002.
  4. ^ "NZ's Labour Party Picks Up Support at Expense of United". Dow Jones International News. 30 September 2002.
  5. ^ "Support for Labour stronger than ever". The New Zealand Herald. 29 October 2002.
  6. ^ "Labour just can't go wrong, gaining four points to reach 51 percent support in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll". IRN News. 27 October 2002.
  7. ^ Hill Cone, Deborah (25 October 2002). "Voters give cold shoulder to smaller parties". National Business Review.
  8. ^ "The latest TV3 poll confirms a continuing decline in support for National Party leader Bill English". Dow Jones International News. 28 November 2002.
  9. ^ "ENGLISH TAKES POLL BATTERING AGAIN". Dominion Post. 28 November 2002.
  10. ^ "NZ First Party Immigration Stance Adds To Tensions – Poll". Dow Jones International News. 18 November 2002.
  11. ^ "LABOUR, UNITED FUTURE GAIN SUPPORT". New Zealand Press Association. 15 December 2002.
  12. ^ "NZ Herald-Digipoll survey puts Govt on 49.6% support – National 23% – English trails Clark and Peters as preferred PM". IRN News. 3 February 2003.
  13. ^ "SUPPORT FOR LABOUR SURGES". New Zealand Press Association. 17 February 2003.
  14. ^ "National Party Posts Minor Rise in Latest NZ Poll". Dow Jones International News. 17 February 2003.
  15. ^ "WAR CASTS SHADOW OVER ECONOMY – POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 23 March 2003.
  16. ^ Young, Audrey (15 April 2003). "English, Brash on level pegging, survey finds". The New Zealand Herald.
  17. ^ "POLL BOOSTS POPULARITY OF BRASH IN PREFERRED PM STAKES". New Zealand Press Association. 13 April 2003.
  18. ^ "National polling its highest after turbulent few months". The New Zealand Herald. 19 May 2003.
  19. ^ "LABOUR DOWN, NATIONAL UP IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 18 May 2003.
  20. ^ Sutherland, Richard (19 June 2003). "National loses 2 points in TV3-NFO poll causing further concerns about English's leadership – Labour has 52% support". IRN News.
  21. ^ "NZ Consumer Confidence Rebounded in June – TV3 NFO Poll". Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2003.
  22. ^ Berry, Ruth (16 June 2003). "LABOUR SUPPORT 'RISING'". The Christchurch Press.
  23. ^ "Electoral Commission registers another party | Scoop News". www.scoop.co.nz.
  24. ^ "PETERS PICKS UP SUPPORT AS PREFERRED PM IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 13 July 2003.
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  26. ^ "SEABED ISSUE FAILS TO GIVE ENGLISH TRACTION". New Zealand Press Association. 12 August 2003.
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  30. ^ Tunnah, Helen (6 October 2003). "GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN". The New Zealand Herald.
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  36. ^ Jennings, Alan (14 February 2004). "Big change of fortune for National at the expense of Labour and NZ First in latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll". IRN News.
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  39. ^ Small, Vernon (5 April 2004). "MAIN PARTIES NECK AND NECK". The Christchurch Press.
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