Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events[]

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary[]

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 11 November 2011. For simplicity, only political parties that have consistently polled above the 5.0% threshold are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. The vertical line indicates the date of the general election: 26 November 2011.
Summary poll results for political parties trending between 1.0% and the 5.0% threshold, based on the same smoother as the above figure.

Individual polls[]

Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green ACT Māori Prog United
Future 		NZ First Mana Con
2008 election result 8 Nov 2008 44.93 33.99 6.72 3.65 2.39 0.91 0.87 4.07 N/A [nb 2]
11 Nov 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party.
19 Nov 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Roy Morgan Research[1] 17–30 Nov 2008 44.0 32.5 9.5 4.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.5
Roy Morgan Research[2] 1–14 Dec 2008 47.0 31.5 9.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 3.0
Roy Morgan Research[3] 2–18 Jan 2009 48.0 33.0 8.0 3.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 19 Jan – 1 Feb 2009 48.0 31.0 9.0 3.5 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 Feb 2009 48.5 32 8.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 1 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 14–19 Feb 2009 57.0 31.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.0
3 News Reid Research[7] 18 Feb 2009 60.0 27.0 7.0 1.2 2.1 0.2 1.6
Roy Morgan Research[5] 16 Feb – 1 Mar 2009 56 26 8.5 1.5 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 Mar 2009 54.5 29 8 2.5 2 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 56.0 28.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 23 Mar – 5 Apr 2009 50.5 28 9.5 4 3.5 1 <0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[8] 5 Apr 2009 57.0 31.0 7.0 2.0 2.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 6–19 Apr 2009 50 32.5 8.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 20 Apr – 3 May 2009 55 30.5 7 2 2 <0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[9] 4–17 May 2009 52.0 31.5 9.5 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[9] 18–31 May 2009 52.0 31.0 8.5 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 1.
28 May 2009  – 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party.
13 Jun 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour.
Roy Morgan Research[9] 1–14 Jun 2009 52.0 33.0 7.5 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 22 Jun – 5 Jul 2009 54 31.5 8 1 3 0.5 0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 6–19 Jul 2009 52 30 10 1 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 25–29 Jul 2009 56 31 7 1 3.1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 20 Jul – 2 Aug 2009 53.5 34 7 2.5 1.5 0.5 <0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 3–16 Aug 2009 53.5 32.5 8.5 1 2 0.5 <0.5 2
21 Aug 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?"
Roy Morgan Research[5] 17–30 Aug 2009 56.5 29.5 8 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[10] 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2009 51.5 33 7.5 2 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 19–24 Sep 2009 54 33 4 3 3 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 21 Sep – 4 Oct 2009 57.5 28 6.5 1.5 2.5 1 <0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[12] 18 Oct 2009 59.9 27.2 6.9 1.7 2.4 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 5–18 Oct 2009 53 30 7.5 2.5 3 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 19 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 55.5 29 7.5 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 Nov 2009 51.5 33 6.5 2.5 2 1 <0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[13][14] 21–25 Nov 2009 53 31 7 2 3 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 16–29 Nov 2009 53.5 30.5 7 1.5 3.5 <0.5 <0.5 2.5
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News Reid Research[15] 13 Dec 2009 55.2 30.8 7.8 1.8 1.7 0.1 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 30 Nov – 13 Dec 2009 54 27.5 9.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 <0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[5] 4–17 Jan 2010 53 30 8 2 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 18–31 Jan 2010 52 32 6 2 3 0.5 0.5 3.5
Herald-DigiPoll[16] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 56 34 4.6 <1 2.8 <1 <1 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[5] 1–14 Feb 2010 52 33 8 1.5 2.5 0.5 <0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[17] 16 Feb 2010 56.3 29.6 7.3 1.6 2.4 0.2 0.2 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[18] 14–17 Feb 2010 54 34 5 2 2 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 15–28 Feb 2010 53.5 31.5 8 1.5 2.5 <0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 1–14 Mar 2010 51.5 33.5 6.5 2.5 2 1 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[19][20] 22 Mar – 4 Apr 2010 49 33 7.5 2 3 0.5 1 3
One News Colmar Brunton[21] 10–14 Apr 2010 54 33 5 2 2
3 News Reid Research[22] 25 Apr 2010 52.1 33.8 8.2 1.6 1.9 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 5–18 Apr 2010 49.5 34 7.5 1 4 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[23] 3–16 May 2010 48.5 33.5 9 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 3
20 May 2010  – 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research[23] 17–30 May 2010 52.5 30 9.5 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[24][25] 30 May 2010 49.0 33.0 7.0 1.6 3.6
Roy Morgan Research[23] 31 May – 13 Jun 2010 50.5 33 9.5 1 3 <0.5 1 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[23] 21 Jun – 4 Jul 2010 53 29 8.5 2 3 <0.5 0.5 3
Roy Morgan Research[26] 5–18 Jul 2010 49 31.5 9 2 3 0.5 0.5 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[26] 19 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 51 33.5 6.5 2 3.5 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[27][28] 8 Aug 2010 49.0 35.0 7.0 2.7 2.3 2.3
3 News Reid Research[28][29] 8 Aug 2010 54.5 30.6 8.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[30] 2–15 Aug 2010 50 33.5 7.5 1.5 3 0.5 3.5
17 Aug 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats.
Roy Morgan Research[30] 16–29 Aug 2010 49.5 32.5 8.5 1 3 1 3.5
4 Sep 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury.
Roy Morgan Research[30] 30 Aug – 12 Sep 2010 48.5 34 8 2 1.5 0.5 1 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[30] 20 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 49.5 36.5 8 0.5 2.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[31] 26 Sep 2010 54 32 8 1.1 2.3 2.4
Roy Morgan Research[32] 4–17 Oct 2010 52.5 33 8.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[33] 11 Oct 2010 53.8 32.6 7.6 0.9 2.4 0.3 1.2
Roy Morgan Research[34] 18–31 Oct 2010 50.5 33 8.5 1.5 3 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[34] 1–14 Nov 2010 50 32.5 9 1 2.5 0.5 3
20 Nov 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research[34] 15–28 Nov 2010 51 33 7 1 3 0.5 0.5 3
Roy Morgan Research[34] 29 Nov – 12 Dec 2010 48.5 35 7 1.5 2.5 0.5 1 3
3 News Reid Research[35] 13 Dec 2010 55.5 31.2 7.3 1.3 1.7 0.1 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton[36] 19 Dec 2010 55 33 4.5 0.9 2.2 3.1
Herald-DigiPoll[37] 30 Dec 2010 52.4 37.2 5.3 0.9 1.2 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[38] 4–16 Jan 2011 55 29 7 1.5 2.5 0.5 4.5
26 Jan 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets.
Roy Morgan Research[39] 17–30 Jan 2011 49 34.5 6.5 1 3 5.5
2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011.
Roy Morgan Research[39] 31 Jan – 13 Feb 2011 52.5 33.5 8.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 Feb 2011 51 33 8 1.3 2.3 3.6
3 News Reid Research[41] 20 Feb 2011 54.6 30.9 8.2 0.6 2.3 3.3
Roy Morgan Research[42] 14–27 Feb 2011 49 35 8 1.5 3 3
22 Feb 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties.
23 Feb 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats.
5 Mar 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research[42] 28 Feb – 13 Mar 2011 52.5 32.5 8 0.5 1.5 0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[42] 21 Mar – 3 Apr 2011 51 31.5 8 2 1.5 0.5 5
One News Colmar Brunton[43] 10 Apr 2011 54 34 6 1.1 1.4 2.7
3 News Reid Research[44] 17 Apr 2011 57.5 27.1 7.7 1.7 2.5 0.2 2.8
Roy Morgan Research[45] 4–17 Apr 2011 51 32 8 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 3
30 Apr 2011 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party.
Roy Morgan Research[45] 18 Apr – 1 May 2011 52.5 31 7.5 1 2 0.5 0.5 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[45] 2–15 May 2011 53 28 10 2 2 0.5 0.5 3
19 May 2011  – 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament.
Herald-DigiPoll[46] 19–25 May 2011 54.4 33.7 5.5 1.7 1.5 0 0 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton[47] 29 May 2011 52 34 6 2.5 1.4 1.6 0.9
3 News Reid Research[48] 29 May 2011 53.0 32.8 6.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 2.4 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[49] 16–29 May 2011 49 36 6.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 30 May – 12 Jun 2011 53 30 7 3 3 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 13–26 Jun 2011 54 30.5 5.5 2.5 3 0.5 3.5
25 Jun 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party.
Herald-DigiPoll[51] 27 Jun 2011 51.2 36.1 6.6 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[52] 27 Jun – 10 Jul 2011 49 33.5 7.5 3 2.5 0.5 3
3 News Reid Research[53] 10 Jul 2011 55.1 29.9 9.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.2 0.7
14 Jul 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax.[54]
One News Colmar Brunton[55] 17 Jul 2011 53 27 10 3.1 3 0.3 2.4 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[56] 11–24 Jul 2011 52 31.5 7.5 2 3 0.5 2.5 0.5
Fairfax Media–Research International [57][58] 21–25 Jul 2011 56 29 6.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 2.0 0.2
Herald-DigiPoll[59] 30 Jul 2011 52.3 33.1 8.3 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.6
Roy Morgan Research [60] 25 Jul – 7 Aug 2011 51.5 32 7 2 1.5 0.5 4 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[61] 21 Aug 2011 56 30 6 1.7 1.4 0.5 2.3 0.9
3 News Reid Research[62] 21 Aug 2011 54.0 28.8 9.3 2.2 1.5 0.0 2.2 0.9
Herald-DigiPoll[63] 19–26 Aug 2011 52 31.5 9.8 1.2 1.8 0.1 2.4 0.2
Roy Morgan Research [64] 15 – 28 Aug 2011 52 29.5 9 2 1.5 0.5 3.5 1
Fairfax Media–Research International[58] 25–29 Aug 2011 57.1 25.7 11.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.2 0.6
Roy Morgan Research [65] 29 Aug – 11 Sep 2011 57 26 7.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 3.5 1
9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game.[66]
13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council.[66]
Roy Morgan Research [67] 12 – 25 Sep 2011 51 30.5 11.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 1 0.5
30 Sep 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA.[68]
Fairfax Media–Research International[69] 28 Sep 2011 54 28 10 1.5 1.3 0.4 2.3 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[70] 2 Oct 2011 56 29 9 1.3 1.1 0.0 1.9 0.6
3 News Reid Research[71] 2 Oct 2011 57.4 26.6 9.8 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.9 0.
Roy Morgan Research [72] 26 Sep – 9 Oct 2011 55.5 28 9.5 1.5 2 0.5 2 0.5
5 Oct 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster.
Roy Morgan Research [73] 10–23 Oct 2011 53.5 29.5 9.5 1 2 1 2.5 0.5
26 Oct 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election.[74] Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters.[note a][75] Main campaigning season begins.
Herald-DigiPoll [76] 20–27 Oct 2011 53.5 30.3 9.5 1.5 1.2 0.1 2.8 0.1
3 News Reid Research[77] 30 Oct 2011 52.3 30.2 9.4 1.5 1.4 0.0 2.4 0.9
Fairfax Media–Research International[78] 27–31 Oct 2011 52.6 31.3 9.7 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 1.5 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [79] 28 Oct – 2 Nov 2011 54.2 29.1 10.1 0.9 1.9 0.5 1.7 0.1 1.1
One News Colmar Brunton[80] 3 Nov 2011 56 30 9 0.9 1.3 0.1 2.2 0.3
Roy Morgan Research [81] 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2011 53 26 12 1 2 0 4.5 1.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[82] 3–7 Nov 2011 52.5 25.9 12.6 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.3 2.8 0.7
Herald-DigiPoll [83] 3–9 Nov 2011 49.5 28.7 12.6 1.5 0.5 0.7 3.7 0.7 1
One News Colmar Brunton[84] 10 Nov 2011 54 28 9 1.5 2.1 0.8 2.9 0.2 0.5
3 News Reid Research[85] 13 Nov 2011 53.3 29.9 10.2 0.7 1.4 0.0 2.4 1.0
11 Nov 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge.
Herald-DigiPoll [86] 10–16 Nov 2011 49.9 29.1 12.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.9 0.4 0.6
One News Colmar Brunton[87] 17 Nov 2011 51 26 13 1.6 1.6 0.3 2.2 1.3 1.4
3 News Reid Research[88] 17 Nov 2011 50.2 27.4 13.0 1.8 1.3 0.0 3.5 1.0 1.1
Roy Morgan Research [89] 7 – 18 Nov 2011 53 24.5 13 1.5 3 0 3 1.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[90] 17 – 21 Nov 2011 54.0 26.0 12.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.1 4.0 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [91] 17 – 23 Nov 2011 50.9 28.0 11.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.2 0.3 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton[92] 24 Nov 2011 50 28 10 1.7 2.0 0.1 4.2 1.0 2.4
3 News Reid Research[93] 24 Nov 2011 50.8 26.0 13.4 1.0 1.5 0.0 3.1 1.1 1.8
Roy Morgan Research [94][note b] 22 – 24 Nov 2011 49.5 23.5 14.5 1.5 1 0.5 6.5 0.5
26 Nov 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election.[95] A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%.[96][97]
2011 election result[97] 26 Nov 2011 47.31 27.48 11.06 1.07 1.43 –[note c] 0.60 6.59 1.08 2.65
Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green ACT Māori Prog United
Future 		NZ First Mana Con
  • ^[note a] Voters enrolling after this date could still vote in the general election, but were not included on the printed roll and had to cast special declaration votes.
  • ^[note b] The two graphs near the top of the page include data up to and including this poll.
  • ^[note c] The Progressive Party did not contest the 2011 election.

Preferred Prime Minister[]

Individual polls[]

Poll Date[nb 1] John
Key 		Helen
Clark 		Phil
Goff 		Winston
Peters
Colmar Brunton[6] 14–19 Feb 2009 51 6 2
Colmar Brunton[6] 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 51 6 1
TV ONE Colmar Brunton[8] 5 Apr 2009 51 9 6
Colmar Brunton[6] 25–29 Jul 2009 54 7 2
3 News-Reid Research[12] 18 Oct 2009 51.6 8.2 4.7 3.0
ONE News Colmar Brunton[13][14] 21–25 Nov 2009 54 5 2
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News-Reid Research[15] 13 Dec 2009 49.9 6.1 8.0 2.1
Herald Digipoll[16] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 58 7 6.8
ONE News Colmar Brunton[21] 10–14 Apr 2010 48 8
ONE News Colmar Brunton[24] May 2010 46 6
ONE News Colmar Brunton[27][28] 8 Aug 2010 45 9
3 News-Reid Research[28][29][98] 8 Aug 2010 48.7 2.3 7.4 3.7
ONE News Colmar Brunton[31] 26 Sep 2010 52 8
One News-Colmar Brunton[36] 19 Dec 2010 49.1 6.8 4.9
3 News-Reid Research[41] 20 Feb 2011 49.1 6.8 4.9
ONE News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 Feb 2011 48 2 7 3
One News-Colmar Brunton[43] 10 Apr 2011 55 11 3
3 News-Reid Research[44] 17 Apr 2011 52.4 6.8
Herald Digipoll[46] 27 May 2011 67.7 11.9
One News-Colmar Brunton[47] 29 May 2011 53 8
3 News-Reid Research[48] 29 May 2011 48.2 7.6
One News-Colmar Brunton[55] 17 Jul 2011 54 9
Herald Digipoll[59] 30 Jul 2011 70.3 7.9 9.3 2.9
One News-Colmar Brunton[61] 21 Aug 2011 57 8
Herald Digipoll[76] 29 Oct 2011 70.6 13.7 3.5
One News-Colmar Brunton[80] 3 Nov 2011 56 12
Fairfax Media-Research International[90] 17–21 Nov 2011 51.5 12.5 3.5
Poll Date[nb 1] John
Key 		Helen
Clark 		Phil
Goff 		Winston
Peters

Other polls[]

Epsom electorate vote[]

Poll Date[nb 1] John
Banks 		Paul
Goldsmith 		David
Parker 		David
Hay
2008 election result 8 November 2008 56.1[a] 21.8[a] 13.6[a] 7.4[a]
New Zealand Herald-Key Research[99] 9 October 2011 18.9 32.9 4.3 1
Fairfax Media Research International[100] 17 November 2011 29.1 45.5 14.6 7.7
One News Colmar Brunton[101] 14–17 November 2011 30 41 17 11
2011 general election, final result 26 November 2011 44.10 37.80 10.45 6.01

^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.

Voting method referendum[]

Main article: New Zealand voting method referendum, 2011 § Opinion polls and surveys

Concern over validity[]

A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote.[102] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls.[102] However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel.[103] At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ The Mana Movement and the Conservative Party of New Zealand were both formed in 2011, and as such, did not contest the 2008 general election

References[]

  1. ^ "John Key elected as new Prime Minister and record number of New Zealanders say New Zealand is 'Heading in the right direction'". Roy Morgan Research. 30 November 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  2. ^ "'Honeymoon' period continues for new New Zealand Prime Minister John Key; National Party (47%) well ahead of Labour (31.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 14 December 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  3. ^ "John Key's New Zealand Government retains strong lead; National Party (48%) well ahead of Labour (33%)". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  4. ^ "NZ National Party-led Government (56%) well ahead of Opposition Parties (44%)". Roy Morgan Research. 5 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w "National-led Government (55%, unchanged) Retain big lead over Opposition Parties (45%, unchanged)". Roy Morgan Research. 27 April 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f TVNZ Teletext, p.497 Retrieved 3 August 2009.
  7. ^ "National's honeymoon continues, according to poll" (video). TV3. 18 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b "National still on honeymoon". The Dominion Post. 6 April 2009. Archived from the original on 14 June 2010. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b c Roy Morgan Research (24 June 2009). "National Still Surpasses 50% in New Zealand". Angus Reid Public Opinion. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  10. ^ "Poll: National falls, Labour gains". The New Zealand Herald. 21 September 2009. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  11. ^ "2009 poll results". Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  12. ^ Jump up to: a b "3 News Reid Research poll results". 3 News. 18 October 2009. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  13. ^ Jump up to: a b "Poll makes grim reading for Goff and Harawira". TVNZ. 29 November 2009. Retrieved 2 December 2009.
  14. ^ Jump up to: a b TVNZ Teletext. Retrieved 2 December 2009
  15. ^ Jump up to: a b "Goff finally passes Helen Clark as preferred PM". 3 News. 13 December 2009. Retrieved 15 December 2009.
  16. ^ Jump up to: a b Cheng, Derek (13 February 2010). "Poll records growing support for Key". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 February 2010.
  17. ^ "People more realistic about the economy – Key". 3 News. 22 February 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  18. ^ "2010 poll results". Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 13 March 2010.
  19. ^ "National-led Government (55%, down 2%) lead over Opposition Parties (45%, up 2%) – Cut to lowest since February 2009". Roy Morgan Research. 9 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  20. ^ Newstalk ZB (10 April 2010). "Support for National slips". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  21. ^ Jump up to: a b "National continues to ride high in the polls". ONE News. Television New Zealand. 18 April 2010. Retrieved 18 April 2010.
  22. ^ "Labour finding traction, Goff a little lost – poll". 3 News. 25 April 2010. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
  23. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "National-led Government (58.5%, up 3%) further ahead of Opposition Parties (41.5%); National up 2.5% to 53%, Labour down 4% to 29%". Roy Morgan Research. 9 July 2010. Archived from the original on 16 July 2010. Retrieved 16 July 2010.
  24. ^ Jump up to: a b New Zealand Press Association (30 May 2010). "Support for National dips – poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
  25. ^ "National's support dips in latest poll" (video). ONE News. Television New Zealand. 30 May 2010. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
  26. ^ Jump up to: a b "Roy Morgan Poll – 6 August 2010". 6 August 2010. Retrieved 12 August 2010.
  27. ^ Jump up to: a b "Labour's support up after tough month – tvnz.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  28. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Labour makes gains in polls – nzherald.co.nz". The New Zealand Herald. 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  29. ^ Jump up to: a b "Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll – 3news.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  30. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Roy Morgan Poll – 16 September 2010". 16 September 2010. Retrieved 5 October 2010.
  31. ^ Jump up to: a b ONE News (26 September 2010). "Surge in popularity for National – poll". Retrieved 30 September 2010.
  32. ^ "Roy Morgan Poll – 25 October 2010". 25 October 2010. Retrieved 3 November 2010.
  33. ^ "Voters weigh in on GST increase – poll – 3news.co.nz". 11 October 2010. Retrieved 13 October 2010.
  34. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Roy Morgan Poll – 17 December 2010". 17 December 2010. Retrieved 19 December 2010.
  35. ^ "3 News Reid Research Poll – December 2010" (PDF). 3 News. 13 December 2010. Retrieved 21 February 2011.
  36. ^ Jump up to: a b OneNews (19 December 2010). "National streets ahead in final One News poll for 2010". Retrieved 19 December 2010.
  37. ^ Young, Audrey (30 December 2010). "National's support slips but it's still out on its own". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 January 2011.
  38. ^ "Roy Morgan Poll – 21 January 2010". 21 January 2011. Retrieved 21 January 2011.
  39. ^ Jump up to: a b "Roy Morgan Poll – 21 February 2010". 21 February 2011. Retrieved 2 March 2011.
  40. ^ Jump up to: a b "National's popularity falls, but no party near it – Colmar Poll". Television New Zealand. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 21 February 2011.
  41. ^ Jump up to: a b "Key still strong as preferred PM, but gap closing". 3 News. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 21 February 2011.
  42. ^ Jump up to: a b c "Roy Morgan Research Poll – 8 April 2011". 8 April 2011. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
  43. ^ Jump up to: a b "National well ahead but Labour survives scandal". Television New Zealand. 10 April 2011. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
  44. ^ Jump up to: a b Bennett, Adam (17 April 2011). "National climbs closer to record high in latest poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 April 2011.
  45. ^ Jump up to: a b c "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT INCREASES LEAD". 23 May 2011. Retrieved 26 May 2011.
  46. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (27 May 2011). "Goff well down in PM stakes but rating okay as Labour's leader". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 28 May 2011.
  47. ^ Jump up to: a b "National still sitting pretty after zero Budget – Colmar Poll". Television New Zealand. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 30 May 2011.
  48. ^ Jump up to: a b "National slips a little in poll, but still going strong". 3 News. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
  49. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DIPS SHARPLY BUT WOULD STILL WIN". 9 June 2011. Retrieved 9 June 2011.
  50. ^ Jump up to: a b "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT MAINTAINS LEAD AND WOULD WIN EASILY – 60% cf. 40%". 30 June 2011. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  51. ^ Young, Audrey (1 July 2011). "Poll: Labour gains, but Nats would still govern alone". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  52. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DOWN BUT WOULD WIN EASILY – 55% cf. 45%". 19 July 2011. Retrieved 20 July 2011.
  53. ^ "Greens on the up, National in front – poll". 3 News. 10 July 2011. Retrieved 17 July 2011.
  54. ^ Bennett, Adam (14 July 2011). "Poll: Labour unveils 'bold' tax plan". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 15 July 2011.
  55. ^ Jump up to: a b "Labour support plummets in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 17 July 2011. Retrieved 17 July 2011.
  56. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT GAINS AND HAS WINNING LEAD 57.5% cf. 42.5%". 28 July 2011. Retrieved 5 August 2011.
  57. ^ Watkins, Tracy (27 July 2011). "Labour 'not fazed' by dismal poll result". stuff.co.nz. Retrieved 31 August 2011.
  58. ^ Jump up to: a b Watkins, Tracy; Vance, Andrea (31 August 2011). "Greens shoot up in poll". Stuff (company). Retrieved 31 August 2011.
  59. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (30 July 2011). "Voters prefer Labour policy but not party: Poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 July 2011.
  60. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVT. DOWN BUT HAS WINNING LEAD: 55.5% cf. 44.5%". Roy Morgan Research. 11 August 2011. Retrieved 14 August 2011.
  61. ^ Jump up to: a b "Key and National hit new highs in poll". Television New Zealand. 21 August 2011. Retrieved 21 August 2011.
  62. ^ "Poll shows National far ahead of Labour". 3 News. 21 August 2011. Retrieved 21 August 2011.
  63. ^ Trevett, Claire (30 August 2011). "Pre-election gloom for Labour after poll tumble". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 August 2011.
  64. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED – 56% cf. 44%". Roy Morgan Research. 1 September 2011. Retrieved 3 September 2011.
  65. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD SURGES 61.5% (UP 5.5%) cf. 38.5% (DOWN 5.5%). BIGGEST LEAD SINCE OCTOBER 2009". Roy Morgan Research. 16 September 2011. Retrieved 18 September 2011.
  66. ^ Jump up to: a b Donnell, Hayden (13 September 2011). "Waterfront move an 'overreaction'". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 September 2011.
  67. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS: NATIONAL 55.5% (DOWN 6%) cf. LABOUR 44.5% (UP 6%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 September 2011. Retrieved 3 October 2011.
  68. ^ "New Zealand's credit rating downgraded – stuff.co.nz". The Dominion Post. 30 September 2011. Retrieved 7 October 2011.
  69. ^ Vance, Andrea (28 September 2011). "Asset sales, Christchurch rebuild on voters' minds". Stuff (company). Retrieved 30 September 2011.
  70. ^ "More poll woe for Labour and Goff". Television New Zealand. 2 October 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2011.
  71. ^ "Latest 3 News poll shows Nat's support doubled". 3 News. 2 October 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2011.
  72. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD INCREASES 59.5% (UP 4%) CF. LABOUR 40.5% (DOWN 4%)". Roy Morgan Research. 18 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2011.
  73. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DECREASES – 57.5% (DOWN 2%) CF. OPPOSITION PARTIES 42.5% (UP 2%)". Roy Morgan Research. 31 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
  74. ^ "Chief Justice steps in for Writ Day". Newstalk ZB. 26 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
  75. ^ "Electoral statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 28 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
  76. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (29 October 2011). "National gains, Labour loses, but Goff's edging up". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 October 2011.
  77. ^ "Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll". 3 News. 30 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
  78. ^ Watkins, Tracy (2 November 2011). "Labour gains ground in latest poll – stuff.co.nz". Retrieved 2 November 2011.
  79. ^ Young, Audrey (3 November 2011). "Labour slips further in latest poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 3 November 2011.
  80. ^ Jump up to: a b "National could easily govern alone, poll shows". Television New Zealand. 3 November 2011. Retrieved 3 November 2011.
  81. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS AGAIN". Roy Morgan Research. 11 November 2011. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
  82. ^ Watkins, Tracy; Migone, Paloma (9 November 2011). "National heading for outright win". Retrieved 9 November 2011.
  83. ^ Young, Audrey (11 November 2011). "Poll shock as Nats drop under 50%". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
  84. ^ "Drop in support for National and Labour – poll". Television New Zealand. 10 November 2011. Retrieved 10 November 2011.
  85. ^ "National to govern alone if poll holds for election night". 3 News. 13 November 2011. Retrieved 13 November 2011.
  86. ^ Young, Audrey (18 November 2011). "Poll shock: Winston within a whisker". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 November 2011.
  87. ^ "Labour hits ten year low in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 17 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
  88. ^ "NZ First climb polls on back of teapot tapes". 3 News. 17 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
  89. ^ "NATIONAL SET FOR NEW ZEALAND ELECTION VICTORY NEXT SATURDAY". Roy Morgan Research. 19 November 2011. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  90. ^ Jump up to: a b Watkins, Tracy (23 November 2011). "National still cosy in polls after tea break". Stuff (company). Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  91. ^ Young, Audrey (25 November 2011). "Final poll: Nats win looks certain, Winston over 5%". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
  92. ^ "Gap closes as election looms – poll". Television New Zealand. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  93. ^ Garner, Duncan (24 November 2011). "Poll shows undecided voters figure leaps up". 3 News. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  94. ^ "NATIONAL SET FOR ELECTION VICTORY, BUT NO MAJORITY AS 'TEAPOT TAPE' SCANDAL DENTS NATIONAL & BENEFITS NZ FIRST". Roy Morgan Research. 25 November 2011. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
  95. ^ "Enrolment statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
  96. ^ "Thousands get their votes in early". 3 News. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  97. ^ Jump up to: a b "Election Results – Overall Status". Electoral Commission. 10 December 2011. Archived from the original on 21 August 2006. Retrieved 10 December 2011.
  98. ^ Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll. 3 News. 8 August 2010. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  99. ^ Fisher, David (9 October 2011). "Epsom poll has Banks sidelined". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  100. ^ Vance, Andrea (17 November 2011). "ACT polls at wipeout low in Epsom". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  101. ^ "'Cup of tea' meeting fails to sway voters to Act – poll". Television New Zealand. 18 November 2011. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  102. ^ Jump up to: a b "Political poll results may exclude 30%?", Horizonpoll.co.nz, 28 May 2011. Retrieved 11 August 2011.
  103. ^ "For whom the belle polls", Andrew Balemi, 3 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
Retrieved from ""