Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election

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Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 50th New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos), MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News Reid Research), The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll), Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events[]

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary[]

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2011 election. The second graph shows parties that received 1.0% or more (but less than 5.0%) of the party vote, or won an electorate seat, at the 2011 election. Parties which have polled over 1.0% since the 2011 election are also included.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 17 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2011 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a GAM smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.
Summary poll results for political parties that received 1.0% or more (but less than 5.0%) of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2011 election. It also includes parties contesting the 2014 election which have polled over 1.0% since 2011.

Individual polls[]

Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori Mana ACT United Future Con Internet Internet
Mana
2011 election result[1] 26 Nov 2011 47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 2.65 N/A N/A
26 Nov 2011 – Don Brash resigns as leader of ACT over the party's low election result.
13 Dec 2011 – David Shearer replaced Phil Goff as leader of the Labour Party.
14 Dec 2011 – The Fifth National Government is sworn in for a second term, continuing their confidence and supply agreements with the ACT, Maori and United Future parties, but with a reduced seven seat-majority.
20 Dec 2011 – The 50th New Zealand Parliament is sworn in.
Roy Morgan Research[2] 3–15 Jan 2012 47 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[3] 16–29 Jan 2012 46 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 30 Jan – 12 Feb 2012 45.5 31 11.5 6 1.5 1 1 0.5
3 News Reid Research[5] 19 Feb 2012 46.5 29.4 13.3 5.0 1.3 1.3 0.2 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[6] 13–26 Feb 2012 45.5 31.5 13 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[7] 27 Feb – 11 Mar 2012 48.5 30 12.5 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5
21 Mar 2012 – Nick Smith resigns from his ministerial portfolios and Cabinet over his conduct in 2010 while Minister of ACC.[8]
One News Colmar Brunton[9][10] 24–28 March 2012 51 29 11 3.1 0.9 1 0.5 0.2 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[11] 12 Mar – 1 Apr 2012 44 30.5 17 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[12] 2–15 Apr 2012 49.5 26.5 12.5 6.5 1.5 1 1
3 News Reid Research[13] 22 Apr 2012 49.8 29.4 14.1 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll[14] 19–29 Apr 2012 48.1 34.8 9.2 4.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[15] 16–29 Apr 2012 47 28.5 15 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[16] 30 Apr – 13 May 2012 44.5 30 15 5.5 1 0.5 1
24 May 2012 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2012 budget, described for the second consecutive year as a "zero" budget. The National government aims to record a $197m surplus in 2014/15, down from $1300m in the 2011 budget.[17][18]
Roy Morgan Research[19] 14–27 May 2012 44 30.5 13.5 5 2 1 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][20] 26–30 June 2012 47 33 13 2.2 1.3 1 0.7 0 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[21] 28 May – 7 Jun 2012 46 31 12.5 5.5 1.5 1 0.5
3 News Reid Research[22] 10 Jun 2012 45.8 33.2 14.4 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.5 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[23] 8–24 Jun 2012 47.5 32 12 4 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[24] 18–25 Jun 2012 47.5 34.0 9.1 4.4 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
26 Jun 2012 – The Mixed Ownership Model Bill, which allows the Government to implement its controversial "mixed ownership model" partial privatisation of four state-owned enterprises, passes its third reading.[25][26]
Roy Morgan Research[27] 25 Jun – 8 Jul 2012 45.5 32.5 13 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[28] 9–22 Jul 2012 47.5 30 11 5.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 3
Fairfax Media Ipsos[29] 19–23 Jul 2012 44.9 32.6 11.9 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton[9][30] 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2012 48 32 12 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9
3 News Reid Research[31] 5 Aug 2012 50.6 30.8 11.2 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[32] 23 Jul – 5 Aug 2012 44 32 14 4 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[33] 13–26 Aug 2012 44.5 32 14.5 5 2.5 1 0.5
29 Aug 2012 – Labour MP Louisa Wall's member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage in New Zealand passes its first reading 80 votes to 40.[34]
Herald-DigiPoll[35] 20–31 Aug 2012 47.9 32.0 10.7 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[36] 27 Aug – 9 Sep 2012 46.5 31 12.5 4.5 2.5 1 0.5 1
One News Colmar Brunton[9][37] 15–19 Sep 2012 45 34 12 1.8 2.9 0.6 0.9 0.1 2
Roy Morgan Research[38] 10–23 Sep 2012 43.5 33 11.5 5 2.5 1.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[39] 24 Sep – 7 Oct 2012 41.5 33.5 13.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[40] 14 Oct 2012 48.8 33.0 10.6 3.2 1.5 0.1 0.1 2.0
Roy Morgan Research[41] 8–24 Oct 2012 43.5 29 13 7.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[9][42] 27–31 Oct 2012 45 32 12 4.9 2.2 1 0.6 0.2 1
Roy Morgan Research[43] 29 Oct – 11 Nov 2012 45.5 32.5 10.5 5 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[44] 12–25 Nov 2012 45 31.5 13.5 6.5 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][45] 24–28 Nov 2012 44 35 13 3.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.3
3 News Reid Research[46] 2 Dec 2012 47.0 34.6 12.9 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.7
Fairfax Media Ipsos[47] 28 Nov – 3 Dec 2012 46.2 34.4 10.5 3.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.2 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[48] 26 Nov – 9 Dec 2012 45.5 33.5 11 5 1.5 1 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[49] 2–14 Jan 2013 46 31.5 12 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 14–27 Jan 2013 46 31.5 13.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
22 Jan 2013 – Prime Minister John Key announces a cabinet reshuffle, promoting three MPs to Cabinet and dropping three others.
31 January 2013 – David Carter is elected Speaker of the House, after incumbent Speaker Lockwood Smith resigns from Parliament to become High Commissioner to the United Kingdom.
Roy Morgan Research[51] 27 Jan – 10 Feb 2013 44 34.5 13.5 4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 2
One News Colmar Brunton[9][52] 9–13 Feb 2013 49 33 11 3.9 1 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9
Fairfax Media Ipsos[53] 10–14 Feb 2013 44.9 36.3 10.7 2.8 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 1.6
3 News Reid Research[54] 24 Feb 2013 51.4 32.6 10.8 3.4 0.4 0 0.1 0.9
Roy Morgan Research[55] 11–24 Feb 2013 47.5 30.5 12.5 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[56] 25 Feb – 10 Mar 2013 43.5 32.5 13.5 5 2 0 0.5 0.5 2
Herald-DigiPoll[57] 11–17 Mar 2013 48.5 36.4 9.0 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.3
Roy Morgan Research[58] 11–24 Mar 2013 44 34.5 13 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[59] 1–14 Apr 2013 40.5 35.5 13.5 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
17 Apr 2013 – Labour MP Louisa Wall's member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage in New Zealand passes its final reading 77 votes to 44.[60]
18 April 2013 – Labour and the Greens make their first joint policy announcement, NZ Power, a single buyer of electricity[61]
3 News Reid Research[62] 13–18 Apr 2013 49.4 30.2 11.5 3.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 2.0
One News Colmar Brunton[63][64] 14–18 Apr 2013 43 36 13 3.0 1.3 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[65] 15–28 Apr 2013 46.5 31.5 11 4.5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 2
29 Apr 2013 – Sitting MP Parekura Horomia (Labour, Ikaroa-Rawhiti) dies from health complications, aged 62.
Roy Morgan Research[66] 29 Apr – 12 May 2013 44 32 12 5 2 1 1.5 0.5 1.5
10 May 2013 – 49 percent of Mighty River Power is floated on the stock exchange in the first "mixed ownership model" float. The share issue price is set at $2.50, below the government's expected $2.70 to $2.80.
16 May 2013 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2013 budget. The government revised its expected 2014/15 surplus to $75m.
One News Colmar Brunton[63][67] 18–22 May 2013 49 33 9 3.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.7 1.7
3 News Reid Research[68] 17–23 May 2013 47.1 33.1 12.0 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.2 1.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[69] 19–23 May 2013 49.1 31.9 11.2 3.2 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6
Roy Morgan Research[70] 13–26 May 2013 41 35 12 4.5 2 0.5 0.5 2.5
24 May 2013 – Mighty River Power's share price on the NZX falls below its $2.50 listing price. As of 28 August 2014, it has not traded above its listing price since.[71]
31 May 2013 – United Future is de-registered as a political party by the Electoral Commission after it cannot prove it had at least 500 financial members.
Roy Morgan Research[72] 3–16 Jun 2013 44 33 11.5 6 2 1 0.5 0 2
Herald-DigiPoll[73] 12–23 Jun 2013 48.8 30.9 10.5 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.5
19 Jun 2013 – Green Party announces u-turn on quantitative easing policy.[74]
Roy Morgan Research[75] 17–30 Jun 2013 46.5 31.5 13 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 2
29 Jun 2013 – Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election: Meka Whaitiri wins the by-election and retains the electorate for Labour. The Mana Party comes second and the Māori Party third (National did not field a candidate).
Roy Morgan Research[76] 1–14 Jul 2013 47 31 11.5 4.5 2 1.5 0.5 1.5
3 News Reid Research[77] 9–14 Jul 2013 49.5 31.0 12.0 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.2 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[78] 15–28 Jul 2013 51 29 10 4 1.5 1 1 0 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][79] 27–31 Jul 2013 46 33 14 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.6
1 Aug 2013 – The controversial GCSB Amendment Bill passes its second reading.
Roy Morgan Research[80] 29 Jul – 11 Aug 2013 44 34 14 3 2 0.5 0.5 1
Fairfax Media Ipsos[81] 10–15 Aug 2013 48.3 31.6 12.3 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.4
13 Aug 2013 – United Future is re-registered by the Electoral Commission after confirming it had 500 financial members.
21 August 2013 – The controversial GCSB Amendment Bill passes its third reading and becomes law.
22 August 2013 – David Shearer announced his intention to step down as leader of the Labour Party.
Roy Morgan Research[82] 12–25 Aug 2013 44 31.5 14 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[83] 26 Aug – 8 Sep 2013 41 32.5 15 6.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 1.5
15 Sep 2013 – David Cunliffe is elected as leader of the Labour Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[9][84] 14–18 Sep 2013 47 34 12 3.6 1.3 0 0.2 0.3 0.8
Herald-DigiPoll[85] 17–23 Sep 2013 43.7 37.7 11.3 4.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 0 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[86] 16–29 Sep 2013 42 37 11.5 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[87] 30 Sep – 13 Oct 2013 41.5 37 12.5 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
12 Oct 2013 – 2013 local body elections: Sitting MP Lianne Dalziel (Labour, Christchurch East) wins the Christchurch mayoralty and subsequently resigns from Parliament.
Fairfax Media Ipsos[88] 19–23 Oct 2013 50.2 33.6 10.7 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton[9][89] 19–23 Oct 2013 45 34 13 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.6
Roy Morgan Research[90] 14–27 Oct 2013 42 35.5 11 4.5 1.5 0.5 1 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[91] 3–7 Nov 2013[92] 46.3 32.2 10.4 4.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.8
Roy Morgan Research[93] 28 Oct – 10 Nov 2013 45.5 32 12.5 5 1 1 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[94] 11–24 Nov 2013 44.5 34 11 3.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 2
30 Nov 2013 – Christchurch East by-election: Poto Williams wins the by-election, retaining the electorate for Labour with 61% of the vote. National comes second, the Green Party third, and the Conservative Party fourth.
Roy Morgan Research[95] 25 Nov – 8 Dec 2013 45 30.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 2
Herald-DigiPoll[96] 9–17 Dec 2013 46.8 35.4 10.8 3.9 1.3 0.9 0 0 0.7
Roy Morgan Research[97] 6–19 Jan 2014 43.5 33.5 12.5 4 2 0.5 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[98] 2 Feb 2014 44.5 33.5 12.4 5.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1
Roy Morgan Research[99] 20 Jan – 2 Feb 2014 47 33 11 4.5 1.5 1 1.5 0.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[100] 8–10 Feb 2014 49.4 31.8 10.0 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 2.1
Roy Morgan Research[101] 3–16 Feb 2014 48 30 12 5.5 0.5 1 1 0.5 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][102] 15–19 Feb 2014 51 34 8 3.1 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.3
Roy Morgan Research[103] 17 Feb – 2 Mar 2014 48.5 30.5 10.5 4.5 1.5 0.5 1 0.5 2.5
10 Mar 2014 – Prime Minister John Key announces that the election would take place on 20 September 2014
Herald-DigiPoll[104] 6–16 Mar 2014 50.8 29.5 13.1 3.6 0.2 0.1 0.8 0 1.3
Roy Morgan Research[103] 3–16 Mar 2014 45.5 31.5 14 3.5 2 0.5 0.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][105] 22–26 Mar 2014 47 31 11 7 0.7 0 0.3 0.1 2.3
3 News Reid Research[106] 30 Mar 2014 45.9 31.2 11.2 4.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.9 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[107] 17–30 Mar 2014 43 32 13 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[108] 31 Mar – 14 Apr 2014 48.5 28.5 11.5 5.5 1 1 0.5 0 2 1
23 Apr 2014 – Labour MP Shane Jones announces he will step down from the Labour Party to take up a government economic development role in the Pacific, focusing on fisheries.[109]
Roy Morgan Research[110] 21 Apr – 4 May 2014 42.5 31 14.5 6 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[111] 10–12 May 2014 47.6 29.5 12.7 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.6
13 May 2014 – The Internet Party is registered as a political party by the Electoral Commission.
15 May 2014 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2014 budget. Surplus for 2014/15-year is $372m. Key initiatives include extending free GP visits to children 12 and under (currently 5 and under), increasing paid maternity leave from 14 to 18 weeks, and increasing Working for Families parental tax credit from $150 to $220 per week. Opposition parties suggest the surplus was produced by "fudging" the numbers and reducing funding for the Christchurch rebuild.
Roy Morgan Research[112] 5–18 May 2014 45.5 30.5 13.5 6 1 1 0.5 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][113] 17–21 May 2014 51 30 11 4.8 1 0 1 0 1 1
3 News Reid Research[114] 25 May 2014 50.3 29.5 10.2 5.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 0.6
Roy Morgan Research[115] 19 May – 1 Jun 2014 52.3 29 9 4.5 1.5 0.5 1 1 0.5
27 May 2014 – The Internet Party and Mana Party announce they will contend the election together with a joint party list, under the name Internet–Mana Party.[116]
5 June 2014 – ACT's sole MP, John Banks is found guilty of filing a false electoral return for his 2010 Auckland mayoral election campaign.[117]
Roy Morgan Research[118] 2–15 Jun 2014 49.5 28 12 4 1 0.5 0.0 1.5 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll[119] 6–16 Jun 2014 50.4 30.5 10.7 3.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.5 1.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos[120] 14–17 Jun 2014 55.6 23.2 11.9 3.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.9 2.1
18 Jun 2014 – Labour leader David Cunliffe is revealed to have written a letter to the New Zealand immigration service for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu when he was his electorate MP in 2003. NZ Herald reporters had asked Cunliffe about Liu the day before revealing the letter, and he denied any involvement with him.[121]
3 News Reid Research[122] 19–25 Jun 2014 49.7 27.3 12.7 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton[9][123] 21–25 Jun 2014 50 29 12 3.8 1.2 0.7 0 1 2
Roy Morgan Research[124] 16–29 Jun 2014 48 28 12 5.5 1.5 1 0 1 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[125] 30 Jun – 13 Jul 2014 51 23.5 15 6 1 0.5 0.5 1 1.5
3 News Reid Research[126] 8–16 Jul 2014 49.4 26.7 12.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.2 2.7 2.3
Fairfax Media Ipsos[127] 17 Jul 2014 54.8 24.9 12.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.2
Herald-DigiPoll[128] 10–17 Jul 2014 54.9 26.5 9.9 4.6 0.5 0 0 1.5 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[129] 19–23 Jul 2014 52 28 10 4.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.7 2
Roy Morgan Research[130] 14–27 Jul 2014 46 30 12 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 2.5
31 Jul 2014 – Last sitting day of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.
Fairfax Media Ipsos[131] 9–13 Aug 2014 55.1 22.5 11.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 2.1
One News Colmar Brunton[132] 9–13 Aug 2014 50 26 11 5 0.9 0.6 0 2.4 3.9
3 News Reid Research[133] 5–13 Aug 2014 47.5 29.0 13.0 4.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 2.5 2.0
13 Aug 2014 – Nicky Hager releases the book Dirty Politics, based on leaked e-mails from blogger Cameron Slater, alleging various ways National Party figures participated in Slater's "attack politics." Among other claims, Hager suggests one of John Key's staff members accessed the Labour Party online database, which journalist John Armstrong compared to the Watergate break-in.[134]
Roy Morgan Research[135] 4–17 Aug 2014 48 27.5 11.5 6.5 1 0.5 0.5 1 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll[136] 14–20 Aug 2014 50 25.2 13.7 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 2.6 2.1
20 Aug 2014 – Writ Day: The Governor-General issues the writ of election, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the 2014 general election. Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.06 million eligible voters (late enrollments must cast special declaration votes). Main campaigning season and radio and television advertising begins.
3 News Reid Research[137] 19–25 Aug 2014 45.0 26.4 13.5 6.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 4.6 2.1
Herald-DigiPoll[138] 21–27 Aug 2014 50.7 24.1 11.4 5 1 0.3 0.2 3.3 3.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos[139] 23–27 Aug 2014 50.8 26.1 11.8 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 2.7 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[140] 23–27 Aug 2014 48 28 12 6 0.6 0.4 0 3.2 1.6
30 Aug 2014 – Judith Collins resigns as a minister due to recurring controversies throughout her tenure as Minister of Justice. Her resignation comes following an accusation by Winston Peters that her office came to him with a possible leadership challenge against John Key, and the revelation of an e-mail from blogger Cameron Slater in 2011 that suggests Collins may have undermined a Director of the Serious Fraud Office.[141]
Roy Morgan Research[142] 18–31 Aug 2014 45 26 16 6 0.5 1 0 3.5 1
3 News Reid Research[143] 26 Aug – 1 Sep 2014 46.4 25.9 12.6 5.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 4.2 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll[144] 28 Aug – 3 Sep 2014 50.1 23.8 11.4 6 0.4 0.4 0.3 3.8 3.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[145] 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2014 54.2 24.3 12.9 3.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.4 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton[146] 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2014 50 26 11 7 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.9 2.4
3 News Reid Research[147] 2–8 Sep 2014 46.7 26.1 13.0 5.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 4.7 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll[148] 4–10 Sep 2014 48.6 24.6 11.5 8.1 0.7 0.3 0 3.8 2.3
One News Colmar Brunton[149] 6–10 Sep 2014 46 25 14 7 0.8 1.2 0.2 4 1.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos[150] 6–10 Sep 2014 52.8 22.4 13.0 4.4 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.6 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[151] 1–14 Sep 2014 46.5 24 13.5 8 1.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 1
3 News Reid Research[nb 2][152] 9–15 Sep 2014 44.5 25.6 14.4 7.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 4.9 2.0
Herald-DigiPoll[153] 11–17 Sep 2014 48.2 25.9 11.1 8.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 3.3 1.0
One News Colmar Brunton[154] 13–17 Sep 2014 45 25 12 8 1.6 0.6 0 4.4 1.8
Fairfax Media Ipsos[155] 13–17 Sep 2014 47.7 26.1 12.0 6.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 0.9
26 Nov 2014 – Election Day:
2014 election result[156] 20 Sep 2014 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 N/A 0.69 0.22 3.97 N/A 1.42
Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori Mana ACT United Future Con Internet Internet
Mana

Preferred Prime Minister[]

Poll Date[nb 1] John
Key 		David Shearer Winston Peters Russel Norman
3 News Reid Research[5] 19 Feb 2012 45.8 10.1 5.7
One News Colmar Brunton[10] 24–28 Mar 2012 48 11 3
3 News Reid Research [13] 22 Apr 2012 44.2 10.4 4.2 2.2
Herald-Digipoll[14] 19–29 Apr 2012 63.9 13.1 6.4
One News Colmar Brunton[20] 4 Jun 2012 48 14
3 News Reid Research [22] 10 Jun 2012 40.5 12.3 4.8 4.0
Herald-Digipoll[24] 18–25 Jun 2012 63.5 14.2 7.3 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton[30] 5 Aug 2012 45 13
3 News Reid Research [31] 5 Aug 2012 43.2 8.9 6.2 2.0
Herald-Digipoll[35] 20–31 Aug 2012 65.6 12.9 5.8 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton[37] 23 Sep 2012 44 12 4
3 News Reid Research [40] 14 Oct 2012 41.0 8.5 5.0 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton[42] 4 Nov 2012 42 11 6
One News Colmar Brunton[45] 2 Dec 2012 39 15
3 News Reid Research [46] 2 Dec 2012 37.4 12.6 5.0 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[52] 13 Feb 2013 44 15 5 2
Herald-Digipoll[57] 21 Mar 2013 63 18.5 4 2.4
Herald-DigiPoll[73] 12–23 Jun 2013 65.2 12.4 6.4
3 News Reid Research[77] 9–14 Jul 2013 42 12.1
One News Colmar Brunton[79] 27–31 Jul 2013 41 13 4 3
22 August 2013 – David Shearer announced his intention to step down as leader of the Labour Party.
15 September 2013 – David Cunliffe is elected as leader of the Labour Party.
Poll Date[nb 1] John
Key 		David Cunliffe Winston Peters Russel Norman
One News Colmar Brunton[84] 22 Sep 2013 42 12 4
Herald-DigiPoll[85] 17–23 Sep 2013 55.8 16.8 6.2 3.7
One News Colmar Brunton[89] 19–23 Oct 2013 43 12 4
Herald on Sunday/Key Research[157] 5–9 Dec 2013 45 18
Herald-DigiPoll[96] 9–17 Dec 2013 61.9 16.5 7.3 3.4
3 News Reid Research[98][158] 23–29 Jan 2014 39.0 10.8 5.9
Fairfax Media-Ipsos[100] 8–10 Feb 2014 51.2 18.2
One News Colmar Brunton[102] 15–19 Feb 2014 42 8 4
Herald-DigiPoll[104] 6–16 Mar 2014 66.5 11.1 6.5 4.5
3 News Reid Research[106][158] 18–26 Mar 2014 42.6 9 6.9
One News Colmar Brunton[105] 22–26 Mar 2014 42 8 4
Fairfax Media-Ipsos[111] 10–12 May 2014 48.6 13.4 3.4 1.8
3 News Reid Research[114][158] 15–21 May 2014 43.1 9.8 7.8
One News Colmar Brunton[113] 17–21 May 2014 43 10
Herald-DigiPoll[119] 6–16 Jun 2014 65.9 12.7 6.2 2.5
Fairfax Media-Ipsos[120] 14–17 Jun 2014 51.4 11.1 2.6 2.7
Fairfax Media-Ipsos[127] 17 Jul 2014 58.2 14.2 2.2 2.1
Herald-DigiPoll[138] 21–27 Aug 2014 67.8 11.6 8.2 3.8
Herald-DigiPoll[148] 4–10 Sep 2014 61.6 17.9 7.8 3.3

Electorate polling[]

The leftmost party columns are the parties, and their sitting Members of Parliament, that held the seats as a result of the 2011 election.

Epsom[]

Poll Date [nb 1] ACT

David Seymour

National

Paul Goldsmith

Labour

Michael Wood

Green

Julie Anne Genter

Conservative

Christine Rankin

Mana

Patrick O'Dea

Independent

Grace
Haden

Colmar Brunton[159][nb 3] 10 August 2014 32 44 10 9 4 0.8 0.3
45 31 9 10 4 0.8 0.1

Tāmaki Makaurau[]

Poll Date [nb 1] Māori

Rangi McLean

Labour

Peeni Henare

Mana

Kereama Pene

Green

Marama Davidson

Māori TV Reid Research[160] 24 July – 16 August 2014 28 27 14 7

Te Tai Tokerau[]

Poll Date [nb 1] Mana

Hone Harawira

Labour

Kelvin Davis

Māori

Te Hira Paenga

Independent

Clifton Dearlove

Māori TV Reid Research[161][162] July – August 2014 38 37 9.4 1.4

Te Tai Tonga[]

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Rino Tirikatene

Māori

Ngaire Button

Green

Dora Roimata Langsbury

Mana

Georgina Beyer

Māori TV Reid Research[163] July 2014 48 17 9 9

Waiariki[]

Poll Date [nb 1] Māori

Te Ururoa Flavell

Mana

Annette Sykes

Labour

Rawiri Waititi

Independent Coalition

Pat Spellman

Māori TV Reid Research[164] 1 September 2014 50 21 17 2

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ Graphs above include polls up to and including this one.
  3. ^ This poll was taken twice, before and after respondents were informed that John Key was encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the ACT Party candidate.

References[]

  1. ^ "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Electoral Commission. 10 December 2011. Retrieved 11 December 2011.
  2. ^ "LITTLE CHANGE IN NEW ZEALAND MAJOR PARTY SUPPORT SINCE NOVEMBER ELECTION". Roy Morgan Research. 19 January 2012. Retrieved 21 January 2012.
  3. ^ "STRONG SUPPORT FOR KEY'S NATIONAL PARTY EARLY IN FEBRUARY". Roy Morgan Research. 2 February 2012. Retrieved 3 February 2012.
  4. ^ "NEW ZEALAND: NATIONAL (45.5%) MAINTAIN STRONG LEAD OVER LABOUR (31%)". Roy Morgan Research. 21 February 2012. Retrieved 22 February 2012.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b "Poll shows declining faith in John Key". 3 News. 19 February 2012. Retrieved 19 February 2012.
  6. ^ "National (45.5%) maintain big lead, but Labour (31.5%) improves for fourth straight Morgan Poll". Roy Morgan Research. 2 March 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  7. ^ "National (48.5%) increase big lead over Labour (30%); Biggest lead for Key Government since election". Roy Morgan Research. 16 March 2012. Retrieved 16 March 2012.
  8. ^ Romanos, Amelia (21 March 2012). "Nick Smith bows out as minister". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 24 March 2012.
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Previous One News Colmar Brunton Poll Results". Colmar Brunton. 29 October 2013. Archived from the original on 26 September 2013. Retrieved 7 November 2019.
  10. ^ Jump up to: a b "National's popularity undented in new poll". Television New Zealand. 1 April 2012. Retrieved 1 April 2012.
  11. ^ "National (44%) lead over Labour tumbles (30.5%); Greens (17%) highest recorded". Roy Morgan Research. 5 April 2012. Retrieved 6 April 2012.
  12. ^ "National (49.5%) lead jumps over Labour (26.5%); Greens (12.5%) tumble from highest recorded". Roy Morgan Research. 5 April 2012. Retrieved 6 April 2012.
  13. ^ Jump up to: a b Garner, Duncan (22 April 2012). "Political research poll: National remains strong". 3 News. Retrieved 22 April 2012.
  14. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (1 May 2012). "Labour makes big leap in poll". The Hew Zealand Herald. Retrieved 1 May 2012.
  15. ^ "National (47%) lead over Labour (28.5%) reduced as ACT NZ leader John Banks faces pressure to resign". Roy Morgan Research. 7 May 2012. Retrieved 7 May 2012.
  16. ^ "National (44.5%) lead over Labour (30%) down again; Labour, Greens & NZ First with majority of vote (50.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 18 May 2012. Retrieved 18 May 2012.
  17. ^ "'Zero' 2012 Budget aims for surplus". The New Zealand Herald. 24 May 2012. Retrieved 24 May 2012.
  18. ^ Migone, Paloma; Levy, Danya (24 May 2012). "Budget 2012: English's nickel and dime Budget". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 24 May 2012.
  19. ^ "National (44%) lead over Labour (30.5%) dips slightly. Down for fourth consecutive week as Bill English delivers Budget". Roy Morgan Research. 30 May 2012. Retrieved 30 May 2012.
  20. ^ Jump up to: a b "National's popularity slides in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 4 June 2012. Retrieved 4 June 2012.
  21. ^ "National (46%) lead over Labour (31%) up after Bill English delivers the 2012 New Zealand Budget". Roy Morgan Research. 14 June 2012. Retrieved 15 June 2012.
  22. ^ Jump up to: a b Garner, Duncan (10 June 2012). "Poll: National losing its grip". 3 News. Retrieved 10 June 2012.
  23. ^ "National (47.5%, up 1.5%) strengthens lead, but Labour (32%, up 1%) at highest since 2011 election". Roy Morgan Research. 27 June 2012. Retrieved 18 June 2012.
  24. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (2 July 2012). "Govt and Opposition neck and neck, says latest survey". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 3 July 2012.
  25. ^ "Asset sales bill passes by one vote". Television New Zealand. 26 June 2012. Retrieved 26 June 2012.
  26. ^ Hartevelt, John (26 June 2012). "Partial asset sale law passed by 1 vote". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 26 June 2012.
  27. ^ "National (45.5%, down 2%) lead lessens; Labour (32.5%, up 0.5%) at highest since 2011 election". Roy Morgan Research. 13 July 2012. Retrieved 15 July 2012.
  28. ^ "National (47.5%, up 2%) increases lead over Labour (30%, down 2.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 25 July 2012. Retrieved 27 July 2012.
  29. ^ Watkins, Tracey; Chapman, Kate (29 July 2012). "'Polarising' PM Losing Gloss". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 29 July 2012.
  30. ^ Jump up to: a b "National edges up in new poll". Television New Zealand. 5 August 2012. Retrieved 5 August 2012.
  31. ^ Jump up to: a b Garner, Duncan (5 August 2012). "National up, Labour down in latest poll". 3 News. Retrieved 5 August 2012.
  32. ^ "National (44%, down 3.5%) lead over Labour (32%, up 2%) lowest since November 2008". Roy Morgan Research. 10 August 2012. Retrieved 10 August 2012.
  33. ^ "National (44.5%) maintains strong lead over Labour (32%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 August 2012. Retrieved 30 August 2012.
  34. ^ Davison, Isaac (30 August 2012). "Gay marriage bill passes first step". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 15 September 2012.
  35. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (11 September 2012). "Conservative Party lifted by gay issue". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 11 September 2012.
  36. ^ "National (46.5%) increases strong lead over Labour (31%)". Roy Morgan Research. 13 September 2012. Retrieved 15 September 2012.
  37. ^ Jump up to: a b "Labour makes gains on National - poll". Television New Zealand. 23 September 2012. Retrieved 23 September 2012.
  38. ^ "National (43.5%) lead over Labour (33%) reduces; government confidence falls to 110 (lowest since election of John Key)". Roy Morgan Research. 26 September 2012. Retrieved 27 September 2012.
  39. ^ "National (41.5%) lead over Labour (33.5%) reduces again; Labour/Greens/NZ First would win an election held now". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2012. Retrieved 11 October 2012.
  40. ^ Jump up to: a b Garner, Duncan (14 October 2012). "Poll: National-Labour gap closing". 3 News. Retrieved 14 October 2012.
  41. ^ "National (43.5%) with strong lead over Labour (29%), but Labour/Greens/New Zealand First still likely to win election". Roy Morgan Research. 26 October 2012. Retrieved 30 October 2012.
  42. ^ Jump up to: a b "National support holds strong as Labour slips in poll". Television New Zealand. 4 November 2012. Retrieved 4 November 2012.
  43. ^ "National (45.5%) retains strong lead over Labour (32.5%) but election would be too close to call". Roy Morgan Research. 15 November 2012. Retrieved 16 November 2012.
  44. ^ "National (45%) retains strong lead over Labour (31.5%), however government coalition would lose close election". Roy Morgan Research. 28 November 2012. Retrieved 28 November 2012.
  45. ^ Jump up to: a b "Poll boost for Labour and David Shearer". Television New Zealand. 2 December 2012. Retrieved 2 December 2012.
  46. ^ Jump up to: a b Gower, Patrick (2 December 2012). "Poll shows preferred change of Govt". 3 News. Retrieved 2 December 2012.
  47. ^ Watkins, Tracey (8 December 2012). "Parties buoyant despite tough year". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 8 December 2012.
  48. ^ "National (45.5%) vote up. Strong lead over Labour (33.5%), however election would be too close to call". Roy Morgan Research. 12 December 2012. Retrieved 14 December 2012.
  49. ^ "National (46%) holds strong lead over Labour (31.5%), however election would be too close to call". Roy Morgan Research. 18 January 2013. Retrieved 18 January 2013.
  50. ^ "National (46%) holds strong lead over Labour (31.5%), however election would be too close to call". Roy Morgan Research. 31 January 2013. Retrieved 1 February 2013.
  51. ^ "National (44%) lead down over Labour (34.5%); Labour, greens with minor parties would win election". Roy Morgan Research. 13 February 2013. Retrieved 15 February 2013.
  52. ^ Jump up to: a b "National bounces up in poll". Television New Zealand. 17 February 2013. Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  53. ^ Watkins, Tracey; Vance, Andrea (20 February 2013). "National no longer a sure winner - poll". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  54. ^ Gower, Patrick (24 February 2013). "National bounces back in poll". 3 News. Retrieved 24 February 2013.
  55. ^ "National (47.5%) has huge lead over Labour (30.5%); biggest since July 2012 & would win election". Roy Morgan Research. 28 February 2013. Retrieved 20 March 2013.
  56. ^ "National falls 4% to 43.5%; Labour gains 2% to 32.5%; Labour, Greens with minor parties would win election". Roy Morgan Research. 18 March 2013. Retrieved 20 March 2013.
  57. ^ Jump up to: a b Trevett, Claire (21 March 2013). "Labour rises at expense of allies". The New Zealand Herald. p. A5. Retrieved 22 March 2013.
  58. ^ "National virtually unchanged (up 0.5% to 44%); Labour gains 2% to 34.5%; An election now would be too close to call". Roy Morgan Research. 2 April 2013. Retrieved 3 April 2013.
  59. ^ "National Party Down 3.5% to 40.5%; Labour gains 1% to 35.5%; Labour with minor party support would win an election if held now". Roy Morgan Research. 18 April 2013. Retrieved 19 April 2013.
  60. ^ Chapman, Kate (18 April 2013). "Marriage equality bill passes third reading". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 19 April 2013.
  61. ^ Bennett, Adam; Young, Audrey (18 April 2013). "Labour, Greens make power promise". The NZ Herald. Retrieved 20 April 2013.
  62. ^ Gower, Patrick (21 April 2013). "Key-high-in-polls-despite-GCSB-drama". 3 News. Retrieved 21 April 2013.
  63. ^ Jump up to: a b "Previous One News Colmar Brunton Poll Results". Colmar Brunton. 27 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 May 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2019.
  64. ^ "National's popularity slips to seven-year low". Television New Zealand. 17 April 2013. Retrieved 20 April 2013.
  65. ^ "National Party rebounds 6% to 46.5%; Labour down 4% to 31.5% As New Zealand passes laws to legalise same-sex marriage". Roy Morgan Research. 2 May 2013. Retrieved 17 May 2013.
  66. ^ "National Party 44% (down 2.5%) now dead-level with Labour/ Greens 44% (up 1.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 15 May 2013. Retrieved 17 May 2013.
  67. ^ "National could rule alone, poll shows". Television New Zealand. 27 May 2013. Retrieved 27 May 2013.
  68. ^ Gower, Patrick (27 May 2013). "Poll-Labour-Greens-close-gap-on-National". 3 News. Retrieved 27 May 2013.
  69. ^ Small, Vernon (29 May 2013). "National leaving Labour in its wake". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 30 May 2013.
  70. ^ "Electors unimpressed with Finance Minister Bill English's Fifth Budget as National Party 41% (down 3%) now well behind Labour/ Greens 47% (up 3%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 May 2013. Retrieved 30 May 2013.
  71. ^ "Mighty River Power Limited (NS) Ordinary Shares (MRP)". NZX. Retrieved 24 June 2013.
  72. ^ "National Party 44% (up 3%) only slightly behind Labour/ Greens 44.5% (down 2.5%) Support for United Future drops to 0% as Peter Dunne fights to re-register party". Roy Morgan Research. 20 June 2013. Retrieved 21 June 2013.
  73. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (26 June 2013). "Poll shock: Labour, Shearer take dive as Nats roll on". The New Zealand Herald. p. A5. Retrieved 26 June 2013.
  74. ^ Young, Audrey (19 June 2013). "Greens ditch quantitative easing policy". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 21 June 2013.
  75. ^ "National Party 46.5% (up 2.5%) now lead Labour/ Greens 44.5% (unchanged) but Maori Party Leader Pita Sharples announces resignation after Maori Party finishes third in by-election for Maori seat Ikaroa-Rawhiti". Roy Morgan Research. 2 July 2013. Retrieved 4 July 2013.
  76. ^ "National Party 47% (up 0.5%) now lead Labour/ Greens 42.5% (down 2%) Biggest lead since late February". Roy Morgan Research. 18 July 2013. Retrieved 18 July 2013.
  77. ^ Jump up to: a b Gower, Patrick (21 July 2013). "Poll shows Labour drop again". 3 News. Retrieved 22 July 2013.
  78. ^ "National Party 51% (up 4%) now lead Labour/ Greens 39% (down 3.5%) Biggest lead since 2011 New Zealand Election". Roy Morgan Research. 31 July 2013. Retrieved 4 August 2013.
  79. ^ Jump up to: a b "Centre-left gains in latest poll, Greens surge". Television New Zealand. 4 August 2013. Retrieved 4 August 2013.
  80. ^ "Labour/ Greens 48% (up 9%) surge ahead of National Party 44% (down 7%) as Parliament debates contentious GCSB 'Spying' Bill". Roy Morgan Research. 20 August 2013. Retrieved 20 August 2013.
  81. ^ Watkins, Tracy (21 August 2013). "Bold policy fails to grab new support for Labour". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 21 August 2013.
  82. ^ "Labour/ Greens 45.5% (down 2.5%) just ahead of National 44% (unchanged) as Labour set to elect new Leader in mid-September". Roy Morgan Research. 30 August 2013. Retrieved 30 August 2013.
  83. ^ "Labour/ Greens 47.5% (up 2%) now well ahead of Nationals 41% (down 3%) before Labour elects new Leader on Sunday September 15". Roy Morgan Research. 13 September 2013. Retrieved 13 September 2013.
  84. ^ Jump up to: a b "David Cunliffe debuts strongly in preferred PM stakes". Television New Zealand. 22 September 2013. Retrieved 23 September 2013.
  85. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (25 September 2013). "Labour rockets in poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 25 September 2013.
  86. ^ "Labour (37%, up 4.5%) receives significant boost after David Cunliffe elected as new Labour Leader – Highest since October 2008". Roy Morgan Research. 2 October 2013. Retrieved 2 October 2013.
  87. ^ "A Labour/ Greens Alliance (49.5%, up 1%) would easily win election over National Party (41.5%, down 0.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 17 October 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2013.
  88. ^ Small, Vernon (28 October 2013). "Poll a major blow to Labour". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 28 October 2013.
  89. ^ Jump up to: a b "Left strong, but Labour flat in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 28 October 2013. Retrieved 28 October 2013.
  90. ^ "A Labour/ Greens Alliance (46.5%, down 3%) likely to win election with support of NZ First (4.5%) over National Party (42%, up 0.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 October 2013. Retrieved 2 November 2013.
  91. ^ Wong, Simon (10 November 2013). "Labour up, but not enough for power - Poll". 3 News. Retrieved 10 November 2013.
  92. ^ "National down, Conservatives up: new poll". NZN. 10 November 2013. Retrieved 10 November 2013.
  93. ^ "National Party (45.5%) now ahead of Labour/ Greens (44.5%) as Labour's new policy on female representation drives men to support National and away from Labour". Roy Morgan Research. 14 November 2013. Retrieved 14 November 2013.
  94. ^ "Parties neck-and-neck in New Zealand 12 months before NZ Election: National Party (44.5%) just behind Labour/ Greens (45%)". Roy Morgan Research. 27 November 2013. Retrieved 27 November 2013.
  95. ^ "National Party (45%) level with Labour/ Greens (45%) to end 2013". Roy Morgan Research. 11 December 2013. Retrieved 11 December 2013.
  96. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (20 December 2013). "Maori Party holds key to government". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 20 December 2013.
  97. ^ "Labour/ Greens (46%) start election year with edge over National (43.5%) as Kim Dotcom set to launch new 'Internet Party' to contest elections". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2014. Retrieved 23 January 2014.
  98. ^ Jump up to: a b Gower, Patrick (2 February 2014). "Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker". 3 News. Retrieved 2 February 2014.
  99. ^ "National (47%) regains lead from Labour/ Greens (44%). Kim Dotcom faces uphill battle to win a seat as his new Internet Party has only 0.5% support". Roy Morgan Research. 6 February 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.
  100. ^ Jump up to: a b Small, Vernon (14 February 2014). "National on wave of optimism - poll". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 14 February 2014.
  101. ^ "National (48%) increases lead over Labour/ Greens (42%) – biggest lead for National since July 2013". Roy Morgan Research. 20 February 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.
  102. ^ Jump up to: a b "Surge in support for National - poll". Television New Zealand. 23 February 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.
  103. ^ Jump up to: a b "New Zealand Voting Intention". Roy Morgan Research. 21 March 2014. Retrieved 21 March 2014.
  104. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (18 March 2014). "National, Greens up, Labour at new low". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 March 2014.
  105. ^ Jump up to: a b "NZ First the big winner in poll". Television New Zealand. 30 March 2014. Retrieved 30 March 2014.
  106. ^ Jump up to: a b Gower, Patrick (30 March 2014). "Poll: National up, despite Oravida saga". 3 News. Retrieved 31 March 2014.
  107. ^ "Labour/ Greens (45%) regain lead over National (43%) for first time since January while Mana Party & Internet Party discuss alliance". Roy Morgan Research. 3 April 2014. Retrieved 3 April 2014.
  108. ^ "National (48.5%) with biggest lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrate the Royal visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge". Roy Morgan Research. 17 April 2014. Retrieved 24 April 2014.
  109. ^ "Labour Party MP Shane Jones steps down". The Northern Advocate. 23 April 2014. Retrieved 24 April 2014.
  110. ^ "Labour/ Greens (45.5%) regain lead over National (42.5%) as scandal engulfs the National Party – Maurice Williamson resigns his portfolios and while Justice Minister Judith Collins takes a few days leave". Roy Morgan Research. 7 May 2014. Retrieved 7 May 2014.
  111. ^ Jump up to: a b Watkins, Tracy (13 May 2014). "National has no need to pull rabbits out of hat". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 14 May 2014.
  112. ^ "National (45.5%) regains lead over Labour/ Greens (44%) after Finance Minister Bill English delivers sixth Budget and projects a Budget surplus this year of $372 million – the first NZ Budget surplus since 2008". Roy Morgan Research. 22 May 2014. Retrieved 23 May 2014.
  113. ^ Jump up to: a b "Poll shows National surviving a tough few weeks". Television New Zealand. 25 May 2014. Retrieved 25 May 2014.
  114. ^ Jump up to: a b Gower, Patrick (25 May 2014). "National's family policies get support in poll". 3 News. Retrieved 25 May 2014.
  115. ^ "National (52.5%) surges to election winning lead while Labour/ Greens (38%) slump to lowest since last New Zealand Election as Greens propose a Carbon Tax to replace the Emissions Trading Scheme". Roy Morgan Research. 5 June 2014. Retrieved 5 June 2014.
  116. ^ Bennett, Adam (27 May 2014). "Mana confirms election year deal with Internet Party". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 June 2014.
  117. ^ "John Banks guilty - may lose seat in Parliament". Radio New Zealand. 5 June 2014. Retrieved 5 June 2014.
  118. ^ "National (49.5%) holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) as former National Party Cabinet Minister, and recent sole Act NZ MP John Banks resigns from Parliament". Roy Morgan Research. 19 June 2014. Retrieved 19 June 2014.
  119. ^ Jump up to: a b Trevett, Claire (17 June 2014). "National flies high as new party nibbles into Greens". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 17 June 2014.
  120. ^ Jump up to: a b Watkins, Tracy (19 June 2014). "Polls show Labours support plummeting". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 19 June 2014.
  121. ^ "David Cunliffe wrote letter supporting Liu's residency bid". The New Zealand Herald. 18 June 2014. Retrieved 18 June 2014.
  122. ^ Gower, Patrick (26 June 2014). "Labour's support dips, Key gets highest rating since 2011". 3 News. Retrieved 29 June 2014.
  123. ^ "Labour drops to two-year popularity low - poll". Television New Zealand. 29 June 2014. Retrieved 30 June 2014.
  124. ^ "National (48%) down but still holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) as Prime Minister John Key announces $212 million 'roading and construction' package for regional New Zealand". Roy Morgan Research. 2 July 2014. Retrieved 3 July 2014.
  125. ^ "National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%) as Prime Minister John Key heads off for 10 days holiday in Hawaii and Labour's increased spending on education fails to convince the electors". Roy Morgan Research. 16 July 2014. Retrieved 18 July 2014.
  126. ^ Gower, Patrick (20 July 2014). "Latest poll more bad news for Labour". 3 News. Retrieved 21 July 2014.
  127. ^ Jump up to: a b Small, Vernon; Watkins, Tracy (17 July 2014). "Labour's poll woe deepens". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 18 July 2014.
  128. ^ Young, Audrey (20 July 2014). "Labour slumps to 15-year low". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 21 July 2014.
  129. ^ "More poll woes for Labour as National rides high". Television New Zealand. 27 July 2014. Retrieved 27 July 2014.
  130. ^ "National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%) cut significantly as Key rules out deal with Conservative Party but says National would consider a deal with NZ First (5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 31 July 2014. Retrieved 31 July 2014.
  131. ^ Small, Vernon; Watkins, Tracy (15 August 2014). "Labour at new low poll". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 15 August 2014.
  132. ^ "Dirty start to campaign hurts Labour, National - poll". Television New Zealand. 17 August 2014. Retrieved 17 August 2014.
  133. ^ Gower, Patrick (17 August 2014). "New political poll a reality check for National". 3 News. Retrieved 17 August 2014.
  134. ^ "John Armstong: Hager's claims light a fuse under the State of Key". 14 August 2014. Retrieved 15 August 2014.
  135. ^ "National (48%) holds its lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as 'Dirty Politics' revelations provide a new challenge for PM John Key's leadership. NZ First surge to 6.5% - highest support since September 2013". Roy Morgan Research. 20 July 2014. Retrieved 20 July 2014.
  136. ^ Young, Audrey (22 August 2014). "Greens spring in polls as National takes hit". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 22 August 2014.
  137. ^ Gower, Patrick (27 August 2014). "Latest political poll big blow for John Key". 3 News. Retrieved 27 August 2014.
  138. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (28 August 2014). "Digipoll: Minor parties surge as Labour sinks lower". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 28 August 2014.
  139. ^ Watkins, Tracy; Rutherford, Hamish (29 August 2014). "Nats riding high, Key sliding down". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 29 August 2014.
  140. ^ "National slips in poll before latest revelations". Television New Zealand. 31 August 2014. Retrieved 31 August 2014.
  141. ^ "Judith Collins resigns as Minister from Cabinet". 30 August 2014. Retrieved 30 August 2014.
  142. ^ "'Dirty Politics' muddies the water for major parties in New Zealand". Roy Morgan Research. 3 September 2014. Retrieved 3 September 2014.
  143. ^ Gower, Patrick (3 September 2014). "Key could need Maori Party post-election". 3 News. Retrieved 3 September 2014.
  144. ^ Young, Audrey (5 September 2014). "Election 2014: Political dirt doesn't stick to Nats in new Herald-Digipoll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 5 September 2014.
  145. ^ Small, Vernon (5 September 2014). "National soars without Collins - poll". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 5 September 2014.
  146. ^ "National unscathed by Dirty Politics - poll". Television New Zealand. 5 September 2014. Retrieved 5 September 2014.
  147. ^ Gower, Patrick (10 September 2014). "Conservatives on brink of entering Parliament". 3 News. Retrieved 10 September 2014.
  148. ^ Jump up to: a b Young, Audrey (12 September 2014). "Winston on the rise as signs point to tighter race". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 12 September 2014.
  149. ^ "Greens eye radical change days before election". Television New Zealand. 11 September 2014. Retrieved 11 September 2014.
  150. ^ Watkins, Tracy; Rutherford, Hamish (14 September 2014). "Don't split vote, National warns supporters". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 14 September 2014.
  151. ^ "John Key set to win narrow election victory on Saturday as Labour/Greens slump puts Winston Peters in powerful position as NZ First surge to 8%". Roy Morgan Research. 17 September 2014. Retrieved 17 September 2014.
  152. ^ Gower, Patrick (17 September 2014). "Poll: Winston holds balance of power". 3 News. Retrieved 17 September 2014.
  153. ^ Young, Audrey (19 September 2014). "Moment of Truth gifts Team Key a late bounce in polls". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2014.
  154. ^ "National, Labour could both muster a majority - poll". Television New Zealand. 18 September 2014. Retrieved 18 September 2014.
  155. ^ Watkins, Tracy (19 September 2014). "Tight race ahead for Key and Cunliffe". Fairfax NZ News. Retrieved 19 September 2014.
  156. ^ "Election Results – Overall Status". Electoral Commission. 4 October 2014. Retrieved 5 October 2014.
  157. ^ Wynn, Kirsty (15 December 2013). "Labour gaining votes as National 'ignore' referendum results". Herald on Sunday. Retrieved 15 December 2013.
  158. ^ Jump up to: a b c "TV3 Poll Results". www.reidresearch.co.nz.
  159. ^ "TVNZ Q+A Colmar Brunton poll in Epsom".
  160. ^ "Tight race in Tamaki Makaurau electorate".
  161. ^ "Te Tai Tokerau poll results highlight voter concerns".
  162. ^ "Te Tai Tokerau race down to the wire".
  163. ^ "Tirikatene looks secure for Te Tai Tonga seat".
  164. ^ "Maori Party co-leader well ahead in Waiariki electorate".
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