Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The two regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Kantar Public (formerly known as Colmar Brunton), and monthly polls by Roy Morgan Research, with less frequent polls from Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The next general election must take place no later than 13 January 2024,^[1] however it is expected that the next election will take place in 2023.^[2][3]

Party vote[]

Nationwide polling[]

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Smoothing is set to span 65%.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (MRI), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), and New Conservative (NCP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Private polling[]

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally, conducted for use by Labour (by Talbot Mills, previously called UMR) and National (by Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their methodology details are not publicly available.^{[dubious – discuss]}

Preferred prime minister[]

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls. The table below includes private polls conducted for Labour (by Talbot Mills, previously called UMR) and National (by Curia), which may be cherry-picked and therefore may not properly indicate ongoing trends.

Government approval rating[]

The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.

Forecasts[]

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[5]

See also[]

• 2020 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes[]

References[]