Next New Zealand general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Next New Zealand general election
← 2020 On or before 13 January 2024
← outgoing members
All 120 seats in the House of Representatives
61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jacinda Ardern November 2020 (cropped).jpg
Judith Collins MP.jpg
Aotearoa New Zealand Green Leadership 2020.jpg
Leader Jacinda Ardern Judith Collins James Shaw
Marama Davidson
Party Labour National Green
Leader since 1 August 2017 14 July 2020 30 May 2015
8 April 2018
Leader's seat Mount Albert Papakura List
Last election 65 seats, 50.01% 33 seats, 25.58% 10 seats, 7.86%
 
David Seymour at ACT Selection Announcement for Leader and Epsom.jpg
Leader David Seymour Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Rawiri Waititi
Party ACT Māori
Leader since 4 October 2014 15 April 2020
28 October 2020
Leader's seat Epsom List
Waiariki
Last election 10 seats, 7.58% 2 seats, 1.17%
Incumbent Prime Minister

Jacinda Ardern
Labour



The next New Zealand general election to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament will be held after the currently elected 53rd Parliament is dissolved or expires.

Voters will elect 120 members to the New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members will be elected from single-member electorates and 48 members from closed party lists.

At the 2020 election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, won an outright majority in the House, resulting in the first time under MMP that a party has been able to form a government without needing a coalition. Nonetheless, Labour formed a co-operation agreement with the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour government is the centre-right National Party, led by Judith Collins, along with ACT New Zealand and the Māori Party.

Background[]

Main article: 2020 New Zealand general election

The 2020 election resulted in a majority for the Labour Party, winning 65 seats, allowing them to continue the Sixth Labour Government unrestricted in the 53rd Parliament. Their coalition partner from the 52nd Parliament, New Zealand First, did not receive enough votes to pass the five percent threshold or win in an electorate, kicking them out of Parliament. Confidence and supply partner the Green Party received 10 seats, up two, becoming the first minor party ever to increase their share of the vote following their being in government. In the opposition, the National Party lost 23 seats, giving them a total of 33, and ACT New Zealand went from one seat to ten. The Māori Party won a Māori electorate and gained an additional list seat after losing representation in the 2017 general election.[1]

Electoral system[]

Main article: Electoral system of New Zealand

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties that meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first-past-the-post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list.[2] If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.[3]

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party had won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats, until the landslide 2020 Labour victory, which gave them 65 seats. When no party has commanded a majority, parties have had to negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.[4]

Electorate boundaries for the election will be the same as at the 2020 election, with 65 general electorates (49 in the North Island and 16 in the South Island), and 7 Māori electorates. Boundaries are due to be redrawn in 2024, after the .[citation needed]

Election date[]

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years.[5] The previous election was held on 17 October 2020.

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2020 election were returned on 20 November 2020;[6] as a result, the 53rd Parliament must dissolve no later than 20 November 2023. Writs much be issued within seven days,[7] so the last day for issuance of the writs is 27 November 2023. Writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount, death of a candidate, or emergency adjournment),[8] which would be 26 January 2024. Because polling day must be on a Saturday,[8] and ten days is required for counting of special votes,[9] the last possible date for the next election to be held is 13 January 2024.[citation needed][disputed – discuss] However, it is expected that the next election will be held in late 2023.[10][11]

Parties and candidates[]

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name.[12] A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.[13]

Party Leader(s) Founded Ideology 2020 result 2020 seats
Labour Jacinda Ardern 1916 Social democracy 50.01% 65
National Judith Collins 1936 Liberal conservatism 25.58% 33
Green Marama Davidson / James Shaw 1990 Green politics, social democracy 7.86% 10
ACT David Seymour 1994 Classical liberalism, conservatism 7.58% 10
Māori Debbie Ngarewa-Packer / Rawiri Waititi 2004 Māori rights 1.17% 2
NZ First Winston Peters 1993 Nationalism, populism 2.60% 0
Opportunities (TOP) Shai Navot 2016 Radical centrism, environmentalism 1.51% 0
New Conservative vacant 2011 Conservatism, right-wing populism 1.48% 0
Legalise Cannabis Maki Herbert / Michael Appleby 1996 Cannabis legalisation 0.46% 0
ONE Edward Shanly / Stephanie Harawira 2020 Christian fundamentalism 0.28% 0
Vision NZ Hannah Tamaki 2019 Christian nationalism 0.15% 0
Outdoors Sue Grey / Alan Simmons 2015 Environmentalism, conspiracism 0.11% 0
TEA John Hong / Susanna Kruger 2020 Anti-racism, fiscal conservatism 0.08% 0
Sustainable NZ Vernon Tava 2019 Environmentalism, centrism 0.07% 0
Social Credit Chris Leitch 1953 Social credit, economic democracy 0.05% 0
Heartland Mark Ball 2020 Agrarianism 0.03% 0

MPs not standing for re-election[]

Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced
Todd Muller National Bay of Plenty 2014–present 23 June 2021[14]

Opinion polls[]

Main article: Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament for the next general election. The two regular polls are produced by Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and Roy Morgan Research, with less frequent polls from MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub), conducted by Reid Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Seat projections[]

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[15]

Source Seats in Parliament[i] Likely
government
formation(s)
LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI Total
Newshub–Reid Research[16]
22–29 Jul 2021 poll 		56 37 11 14 2 120 Labour–Green (67)
1 News–Colmar Brunton[17]
22–26 May 2021 poll 		59 36 11 12 2 120 Labour–Green (70)
Roy Morgan Research[18]
Aug 2021 poll 		51 33 16 17 3 120 Labour–Green (67)
2020 result[19]
17 Oct 2020 election 		65 33 10 10 2 120 Labour (65)
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also[]

  • Elections in New Zealand

References[]

  1. ^ "New Zealand Election Results". ElectionResults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/. Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 November 2020.
  2. ^ "What is the MMP voting system?". Parliament.nz. Electoral Commission. 27 May 2020. Archived from the original on 9 September 2020. Retrieved 9 September 2020.
  3. ^ "Vote in elections". Parliament.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 13 September 2020. Retrieved 9 September 2020.
  4. ^ Hehir, Liam (11 August 2020). "Why an absolute majority is absolutely possible for Labour". Newsroom. Archived from the original on 13 September 2020. Retrieved 9 September 2020.
  5. ^ "What happens in a general election?". Elections.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 13 September 2020. Retrieved 9 September 2020.
  6. ^ "2020 General Election writ returned | Elections". Elections.nz. 20 November 2020. Retrieved 18 May 2021.
  7. ^ "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 125". Legislation.govt.nz. Archived from the original on 28 September 2011. Retrieved 18 May 2021.
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 139". Legislation.co.nz. 2 July 2020. Archived from the original on 13 September 2020. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  9. ^ "How are general election votes counted?". Elections.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 13 September 2020. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  10. ^ Braae, Alex (22 October 2020). "A tale of two minor parties: Lessons for 2023 for TOP and the New Conservatives". The Spinoff. Retrieved 8 December 2020.
  11. ^ "Election 2020: Matthew Hooton: National set for third defeat in 2023". NZ Herald. Retrieved 8 December 2020.
  12. ^ Electoral Act 1993, section 63.
  13. ^ "Political parties in New Zealand". Elections.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 24 August 2020. Retrieved 9 September 2020.
  14. ^ Cooke, Henry (23 June 2021). "Former National leader Todd Muller retiring at next election, cites health concerns". Stuff.co.nz.
  15. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  16. ^ O'Brien, Tova (1 August 2021). "Newshub-Reid Research Poll: ACT soars to 11.1 pct, Labour plummets to 43 pct and National still not cracking 30s". Newshub.
  17. ^ "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Judith Collins plunges to lowest approval rating and no Budget boost for Govt". 1 News. TVNZ. 27 May 2021.
  18. ^ "NZ Labour-Greens extend lead over opposition parties as New Zealand enters nationwide Stage 4 lockdown in August". Roy Morgan Research. 27 August 2021.
  19. ^ "2020 GENERAL ELECTION – OFFICIAL RESULTS AND STATISTICS". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. Retrieved 28 February 2021.

External links[]

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