2020 United States presidential election in Nevada

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2020 United States presidential election in Nevada
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout77.26%
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 703,486 669,890
Percentage 50.06% 47.67%
Nevada Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Nevada
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
Henderson
Las Vegas
North Las Vegas
Reno
None of These Candidates
  • v
  • t

The 2020 United States presidential election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nevada has six votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Throughout the campaign, polls of the state generally showed a Biden lead, albeit with a sometimes slender margin. Prior to polling day, most news organizations considered that Nevada was leaning towards Biden.

Biden carried Nevada by just a barely smaller margin than Hillary Clinton did when she won the state in 2016, winning by a 2.39% margin over Trump compared to Clinton's 2.42% margin. Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural, and voted heavily for Trump. However, Biden won the two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, which make up almost 89% of Nevada's population and are decisive in deciding the winner of the state. Biden also won Washoe County by a wider margin than Clinton.[3] The state's three largest cities are also located in these counties: Las Vegas and Henderson in the former, and Reno in the latter. His strength in these areas was likely due to high presence of minority and union voters: Biden's strength came from heavy turnout among culinary unions in populous Clark County, anchored by Las Vegas. Biden had the backing of Culinary Union Local 226, based on right-to-work standards.[4] Additionally, Biden was able to win about 43% and 34% of votes in the tourism-heavy Lake Tahoe areas of Carson City and Douglas County respectively, sealing his victory in the state.

Caucuses[]

Canceled Republican caucuses[]

Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 7, 2019, the Nevada Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[6][7] In August 2019, the Associated Press quoted the state party spokesman, Keith Schipper, who stated it "isn't about any kind of conspiracy theory about protecting the president ... He's going to be the nominee ... This is about protecting resources to make sure that the president wins in Nevada and that Republicans up and down the ballot win in 2020."[8]

In lieu of conducting their caucuses, the state party's governing central committee instead formally held an Alternative Presidential Preference Poll on February 22, 2020,[9] voting by acclamation to officially bind all 25 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[10][11]

Democratic caucuses[]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses.[]
popular vote
Final alignment popular vote share by county
Map legend
county convention delegates
County convention delegates won by county
Map legend
Final alignment popular vote share by congressional district
Map legend

Bernie Sanders won the Nevada caucuses, with Joe Biden coming in second and Pete Buttigieg in third.[12]

2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses[13][14][12][15]
Candidate First
alignment 		Final
alignment[a] 		County
convention
delegates[b] 		Pledged
national
convention
delegates[c][17]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Bernie Sanders 35,652 34.0 41,075 40.5 6,788 46.8 24
Joe Biden 18,424 17.6 19,179 18.9 2,927 20.2 9
Pete Buttigieg 16,102 15.4 17,598 17.3 2,073 14.3 3
Elizabeth Warren 13,438 12.8 11,703 11.5 1,406 9.7
Tom Steyer 9,503 9.1 4,120 4.1 682 4.7
Amy Klobuchar 10,100 9.6 7,376 7.3 603 4.2
Tulsi Gabbard 353 0.3 32 0.0 4 0.0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 612 0.6 49 0.0 1 0.0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 140 0.1 36 0.0 0 0.0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 86 0.1 8 0.0 0 0.0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Uncommitted 472 0.4 367 0.4 7 0.0
Total 104,883 100% 101,543 100% 14,491 100% 36

General election[]

Final predictions[]

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[18] Lean D
Inside Elections[19] Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean D
Politico[21] Lean D
RCP[22] Tossup
Niskanen[23] Safe D
CNN[24] Lean D
The Economist[25] Likely D
CBS News[26] Lean D
270towin[27] Lean D
ABC News[28] Lean D
NPR[29] Lean D
NBC News[30] Lean D
538[31] Likely D

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Aggregate polls[]

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[d] 		Margin
270 to Win October 16–31, 2020 November 1, 2020 49.4% 44.4% 6.2% Biden +5.0
Real Clear Politics October 23 – November 2, 2020 November 1, 2020 48.7% 46.3% 5.0% Biden +2.4
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.7% 44.4% 5.9% Biden +5.3
Average 49.3% 45.0% 5.7% Biden +4.3

Polls[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 2.98% 49% 48% 1% 1%[f] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,366 (LV) ± 3% 49%[g] 49% - – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,442 (LV) ± 2.6% 44% 51% 3% 2%[h] –
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 720 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 49% - 4%[i] –
Trafalgar Group Oct 28–29, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 2.98% 47% 49% 2% 1%[f] 1%
Gravis Marketing Oct 27–28, 2020 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 50% – – 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,333 (LV) – 49% 50% - – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 23–26, 2020 809 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 49% 3% 2%[j] 4%[k]
BUSR/University of Nevada Oct 16–21,
Oct 23, 2020 		809 (LV) ± 4% 41% 50% – – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 17–20, 2020 712 (LV) ± 5.3% 43% 52% - 3%[l] 1%
WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARP Oct 7–11, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 44% 3% 5%[m] 6%
YouGov/CBS Oct 6–9, 2020 1,036 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 52% - 2%[n] 0%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 2–6, 2020 660 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 48% 3% 1%[o] 6%[k]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,239 (LV) – 47% 51% - - 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[A] Sep 23–25, 2020 750 (LV) – 48% 49% - 2%[p] 1%
Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSR Sep 10–25, 2020 641 (LV) ± 4% 41% 46% - 7%[q] 6%
Fox News Sep 20–23, 2020 810 (LV) ± 3% 41% 52% 3% 2%[r] 2%
911 (RV) ± 3% 40% 50% 3% 3%[s] 4%
ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[B] Sep 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% – – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 8–10, 2020 462 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 46% 3% 1%[t] 7%[k]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 998 (LV) – 49% 50% - – 1%
Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSR Aug 20–30, 2020 682 (LV) ± 4% 39% 44% – 5%[u] 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,021 (LV) ��� 52% 47% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 609 (LV) – 49% 50% - - 1%
ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[C] Apr 27–30, 2020 763 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 49% – – –
AtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% – 15% –
FOX News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 47% – 9%[v] 4%
FOX News Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 47% – 9%[v] 4%
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 49% – – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 49% – – 8%
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 52% – – –



Results[]

2020 United States presidential election in Nevada[32][33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		703,486 50.06% +2.14%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		669,890 47.67% +2.17%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		14,783 1.05% -2.24%
None of these candidates 14,079 1.00% -1.54%
Independent American Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		3,138 0.22% n/a
Total votes 1,405,376 100.00%

By county[]

County Joe Biden

Democratic

Donald Trump

Republican

Various candidates

Various parties

Total
% # % # % #
Carson City 42.82% 12,735 54.18% 16,113 3.00% 891 29,739
Churchill 23.67% 3,051 72.71% 9,372 3.62% 467 12,890
Clark 53.66% 521,852 44.31% 430,930 2.03% 19,728 972,510
Douglas 33.91% 11,571 63.38% 21,630 2.71% 924 34,125
Elko 20.74% 4,557 76.21% 16,741 3.05% 669 21,967
Esmeralda 15.20% 74 82.14% 400 2.67% 13 487
Eureka 10.32% 105 88.00% 895 1.67% 17 1,017
Humboldt 21.73% 1,689 75.63% 5,877 2.64% 205 7,771
Lander 17.94% 496 79.49% 2,198 2.57% 71 2,765
Lincoln 13.49% 330 84.51% 2,067 2.00% 49 2,446
Lyon 28.02% 8,473 69.16% 20,914 2.81% 851 30,238
Mineral 35.50% 829 60.94% 1,423 3.55% 83 2,335
Nye 28.72% 7,288 69.07% 17,528 6.01% 562 25,378
Pershing 23.58% 547 74.61% 1,731 1.81% 42 2,320
Storey 31.35% 902 66.32% 1,908 2.33% 67 2,877
Washoe 50.82% 128,128 46.31% 116,760 2.88% 7,254 252,142
White Pine 19.66% 859 77.89% 3,403 2.45% 107 4,369

By congressional district[]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 36.4% 61.5% Dina Titus
2nd 53.6% 43.6% Mark Amodei
3rd 49% 49.2% Susie Lee
4th 47% 50.9% Steven Horsford

Edison exit polling[]

2020 presidential election in Nevada by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[34]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of
total vote
Total vote 50 48 98
Ideology
Liberals 89 9 26
Moderates 61 37 37
Conservatives 12 85 38
Party
Democrats 95 5 35
Republicans 5 94 35
Independents 50 44 30
Gender
Men 46 51 48
Women 54 44 52
Race/ethnicity
White 43 56 65
Black 80 18 7
Latino 61 35 17
Asian 64 35 5
Other 42 54 5
Age
18–24 years old 69 26 9
25–29 years old 52 45 5
30–39 years old 59 39 17
40–49 years old 49 48 14
50–64 years old 41 57 24
65 and older 46 53 30
Sexual orientation
LGBT 80 16 7
Heterosexual 47 51 93
First-time voter
Yes 55 43 10
No 50 48 90
Education
High school or less 49 48 19
Some college education 46 52 35
Associate's degree 52 46 14
Bachelor's degree 48 48 20
Postgraduate degree 60 38 12
Income
Under $30,000 63 35 17
$30,000–49,999 50 44 20
$50,000–99,999 50 49 33
$100,000–199,999 41 57 24
Over $200,000 52 47 6
Union households
Yes 58 39 19
No 48 50 81
Military service
Veterans 29 70 17
Non-veterans 54 44 83
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 90 8 14
Coronavirus 85 12 22
Economy 11 87 36
Crime and safety 11 88 10
Health care 84 14 11
Region
Washoe County 51 47 18
Clark County 54 44 69
Rest of the state 30 68 13
Area type
Urban 52 46 71
Suburban 58 41 16
Rural 30 68 13
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 14 84 35
Worse than four years ago 85 11 25
About the same 60 38 39

Analysis[]

Given the outcome of the election in other states, Nevada became a crucial swing state to determine whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump would win the 2020 presidential election. With Biden's win, this would mark the fourth presidential election in a row that Nevada has voted Democratic, although this is the first time since the beginning of the Democratic winning streak in Nevada that the state was more Republican than the nation, the last time being 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush carried the state by 2.6% and won the national popular vote by 2.4%. Nevada was the state that came closest to flipping from blue to red in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic in particular had a strong effect on Nevada, as the pandemic negatively affected gambling and tourism, which the state's economy relies on. 22% of voters regarded the pandemic as the most important issue of the election, and these voters broke for Biden by 73 points.

Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural, and have voted Republican since 1980. As a whole, the rural counties outside of Las Vegas and Reno made up much of Trump's total. The state's two most populous counties, Clark County and Washoe County, which contain over 89% of the state's population, broke for Biden. Outside of Clark and Reno, Biden's strongest performances would be in the Lake Tahoe areas of Carson City and Douglas County; while these areas are more rural and Republican-leaning, they are also reliant on both the gambling and tourism industries. Biden hit nearly 43% in Carson City, and received 33% of the vote in Douglas County—this totaled to more than 24,000 votes, effectively clinching the state for Biden.

Nevada received facetious attention because of the delay in its finalization of results compared to most other battleground states. 3 days before the state was called, the electoral map showed Biden at 264 electoral votes while having a narrow lead in Nevada, with Trump having a lead in the remaining uncalled swing states. Had the state been called for Biden sooner, its 6 electors would've increased his electoral vote count exactly to the required 270 to win the presidency. The delay in Nevada's results became an internet meme before the state was projected for Biden on November 7.[35]

Aftermath[]

On November 5, the Nevada Republican Party alleged "at least 3,062 instances of voter fraud". Republican lawyers released a list of over 3,000 people who allegedly did not live in Clark County, Nevada, when they voted. However, these were not proven to be illegal votes, because Nevada (a) allows for people who moved states 30 days before the election to vote in Nevada's election, and (b) allows people studying in colleges in another state to vote in Nevada's election. Additionally, the list featured military members who were overseas and voted by mail.[36]

On November 17, representatives of the Trump campaign asked a judge to nullify Biden's 33,596-vote margin, and simply declare Trump the winner and his electors elected.[37] However, on November 24, the Nevada Supreme Court certified Biden as the winner of the state.[38]

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Vote count after votes for candidates who did not get at least 15% of the vote in that precinct are reallocated to the voter's second choice.
  2. ^ County convention delegates (CCDs) are used to calculate how many pledged national convention delegates each candidate win statewide and in the state's four congressional districts.
  3. ^ The number of pledged national convention delegates is determined by the number of CCDs won, however, a candidate must get at least 15% of the total vote to get any delegates. However, if a candidate wins a congressional district, they get a delegate even if they didn’t reach 15% of the vote. Each precinct has a certain number of CCDs and allocates them based on how many caucus goers there are for each candidate at that precinct.[16]
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 0%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  10. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  11. ^ Jump up to: a b c Includes "Refused"
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  13. ^ "None of these candidates" with 4%; Blankenship (C) with 1%
  14. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%; "None of the candidates" with 3%
  18. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  19. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote and Hawkins (G) with 0%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  22. ^ Jump up to: a b c Other with 5%; would not vote with 4%
  23. ^ Other with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  24. ^ Other with 6%; would not vote with 3%
  25. ^ Jump up to: a b Other with 6%; would not vote with 4%
  26. ^ Other with 8%; would not vote with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ Sponsored by an anonymous partisan group but not the Biden campaign
  3. ^ Sponsored by an anonymous partisan group

References[]

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "County Population Totals: 2010-2019". The United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  4. ^ "Unions, progressives push for Latino Biden votes". Culinary Union Local 226. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019). "Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes". AP NEWS.
  6. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  7. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  8. ^ Price, Michelle (August 2, 2019). "Nevada GOP could let Trump bypass its nominating caucuses". Associated Press.
  9. ^ Michelle Price (December 13, 2019). "Nevada GOP to vote Feb. 22 on endorsing Trump for president". Associated Press. Retrieved December 23, 2019.
  10. ^ "Nevada GOP awards all 25 delegates to Trump". PBS Newshour. Associated Press. February 22, 2020.
  11. ^ "The Nevada GOP Binds its Delegates to President Trump". Nevada Republican Party. February 22, 2020.
  12. ^ Jump up to: a b "Nevada Caucus Results 2020". Politico. February 23, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  13. ^ https://nevadacaucusresults.com/
  14. ^ "Nevada". CNN. February 22, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  15. ^ "Nevada Caucus 2020: Live Results Updates". The New York Times. February 22, 2020. Retrieved February 22, 2020.
  16. ^ "Nevada Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  17. ^ "Nevada Caucus Results 2020 | Live Election Map | Voting by County & District". Politico.com. Retrieved March 2, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  23. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  24. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  25. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  28. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  30. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  32. ^ "Official List of Candidates". Nevada Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  33. ^ "U.S Presidential - Nevada General Election 2020". silverstateelection.nv.gov.
  34. ^ "Nevada 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
  35. ^ "CNN Announces the date of publication of crucial results for Nevada". Cnn.com. Retrieved November 5, 2020.
  36. ^ Valverde, Miriam (November 6, 2020). "Republicans in Nevada found "at least 3,062 instances of voter fraud. ... Thousands of individuals have been identified who appear to have violated the law by casting ballots after they moved from NV."". Politifact. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  37. ^ Wolfe, Jan (November 17, 2020). "As options dwindle, Trump allies ask court to halt Biden's win in Nevada". Reuters. Retrieved November 20, 2020. President Donald Trump's campaign on Tuesday announced a lawsuit to halt President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in Nevada
  38. ^ Durkee, Alison (November 24, 2020). "Nevada Certifies Election Results, Making Biden's Victory Official". Forbes.

Further reading[]

External links[]

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