2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Turnout	62.65%
Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%	Biden 60–70%
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; Joe Biden; Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[2] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

Trump won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.7%, a margin of 33.4%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It hasn't been won by a Democrat since 1964, and has only been competitive in three elections since: 1976, 1996 and 2008. A few prime reasons for its being is an easy target for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as its economy is increasingly fueled by the oil boom.^[4] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties--perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.^[5]

Joe Biden won the same two counties Hillary Clinton won in 2016: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which long being Democratic strongholds as a result. However, Biden only came up 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since FDR in 1944 and the first without Benson County, Ransom County and Steele County since John F. Kennedy in 1960.^{[citation needed]}

Caucuses[]

Democratic caucuses[]

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses^[6]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Bernie Sanders	7,682	53.3	8
Joe Biden	5,742	39.8	6
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn^[a])	366	2.5
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn^[a])	223	1.5
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn^[a])	164	1.1
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn^[a])	113	0.8
Tulsi Gabbard	89	0.6
Andrew Yang (withdrawn^[a])	20	0.2
Tom Steyer (withdrawn^[a])	6	0.0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn^[a])	3	0.0
John Delaney (withdrawn^[a])	3	0.0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn^[a])	2	0.0
Total	14,413	100%	14

Republican caucuses[]

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.^[7]^[8]

The party will then formally select their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.^[9]^[10]

Libertarian nominee[]

Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election[]

Final predictions[]

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report^[11]	Solid R
Inside Elections^[12]	Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[13]	Safe R
Politico^[14]	Solid R
RCP^[15]	Solid R
Niskanen^[16]	Safe R
CNN^[17]	Solid R
The Economist^[18]	Safe R
CBS News^[19]	Likely R
270towin^[20]	Safe R
ABC News^[21]	Solid R
NPR^[22]	Likely R
NBC News^[23]	Solid R
538^[24]	Solid R

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls


Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided ^[b]	Margin
270 to Win	September 26 – October 17, 2020	October 19, 2020	38.0%	57.5%	4.5%	Trump +19.5
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	38.7%	56.0%	5.3%	Trump +17.3
Average			38.4%	56.8%	4.8%	Trump +18.4

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	402 (LV)	± 7%	59%^[d]	39%	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	700 (LV)	–	57%	42%	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	249 (LV)	–	63%	34%	–	–	3%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First	Sep 26–29, 2020	460 (A)	± 4.6%	51%	37%	–	4%^[e]	7%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First	Sep 12–16, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	56%	37%	–	3%^[f]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	269 (LV)	–	66%	32%	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	261 (LV)	–	63%	36%	–	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	88 (LV)	–	71%	28%	–	–	1%
DFM Research	Mar 3–5, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	38%	–	2%	5%
DFM Research	Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%	59%	34%	–	2%	5%
1892 Polling/Doug Burgum^[A]	Jul 15–17, 2019	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	60%	34%	–	–	–
DFM Research	May 14–18, 2019	400 (A)	± 4.9%	54%	39%	–	2%	5%

show

Former candidates

Electoral slates[]

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:^[25]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party	Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party	Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party
Sandy J. Boehler Ray Holmberg Robert Wefald	Heidi Heitkamp Bernice Knutson Warren Larson	Dustin Gawrylow Martin J. Riske Dylan Stuckey

Results[]

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	235,595	65.11%	+2.15%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	114,902	31.76%	+4.53%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	9,393	2.60%	−3.62%
	Write-in		1,929	0.53%	−1.33%
Total votes			361,819	100.00%

Results by county[]

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Write-ins		Total votes
County	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	Total votes
Adams	77.30%	981	20.33%	258	2.36%	30	0.00%	0	1,269
Barnes	64.12%	3,568	32.70%	1,820	2.89%	161	0.29%	16	5,565
Benson	55.79%	1,094	41.92%	822	1.99%	39	0.31%	6	1,961
Billings	85.20%	541	11.34%	72	3.31%	21	0.16%	1	635
Bottineau	74.19%	2,575	23.65%	821	1.87%	65	0.29%	10	3,471
Bowman	84.19%	1,395	13.76%	228	1.81%	30	0.24%	4	1,657
Burke	86.06%	994	11.86%	137	1.73%	20	0.35%	4	1,155
Burleigh	68.46%	34,744	28.27%	14,348	2.70%	1,368	0.58%	293	50,753
Cass	49.53%	42,619	46.84%	40,311	2.90%	2,495	0.73%	628	86,053
Cavalier	74.21%	1,499	23.47%	474	1.98%	40	0.35%	7	2,020
Dickey	71.86%	1,742	25.08%	608	2.60%	63	0.45%	11	2,424
Divide	75.21%	904	22.05%	265	2.50%	30	0.25%	3	1,202
Dunn	83.45%	1,951	14.63%	342	1.67%	39	0.26%	6	2,338
Eddy	67.72%	854	30.37%	383	1.74%	22	0.16%	2	1,261
Emmons	86.51%	1,738	11.80%	237	1.34%	27	0.35%	7	2,009
Foster	76.60%	1,362	20.98%	373	1.86%	33	0.56%	10	1,778
Golden Valley	84.89%	871	13.35%	137	1.56%	16	0.19%	2	1,026
Grand Forks	54.85%	16,987	41.59%	12,880	2.82%	874	0.74%	229	30,970
Grant	82.91%	1,145	14.99%	207	2.03%	28	0.07%	1	1,381
Griggs	72.56%	907	24.64%	308	2.72%	34	0.08%	1	1,250
Hettinger	83.16%	1,091	14.94%	196	1.75%	23	0.15%	2	1,312
Kidder	83.22%	1,215	15.14%	221	1.51%	22	0.14%	2	1,460
LaMoure	74.13%	1,645	23.75%	527	1.98%	44	0.14%	3	2,219
Logan	86.43%	930	11.90%	128	1.30%	14	0.37%	4	1,076
McHenry	78.72%	2,364	18.78%	564	2.26%	68	0.23%	7	3,003
McIntosh	79.24%	1,153	17.94%	261	2.06%	30	0.76%	11	1,455
McKenzie	82.71%	4,482	15.02%	814	2.03%	110	0.24%	13	5,419
McLean	75.83%	4,198	22.22%	1,230	1.73%	96	0.22%	12	5,536
Mercer	82.48%	3,856	15.06%	704	2.18%	102	0.28%	13	4,675
Morton	73.67%	12,243	23.30%	3,872	2.60%	432	0.43%	72	16,619
Mountrail	67.80%	2,824	30.16%	1,256	1.80%	75	0.24%	10	4,165
Nelson	64.21%	1,141	32.98%	586	2.42%	43	0.39%	7	1,777
Oliver	86.12%	918	12.10%	129	1.69%	18	0.09%	1	1,066
Pembina	73.85%	2,460	23.60%	786	1.98%	66	0.57%	19	3,331
Pierce	74.48%	1,585	23.36%	497	1.79%	38	0.38%	8	2,128
Ramsey	66.59%	3,577	30.51%	1,639	2.38%	128	0.52%	28	5,372
Ransom	57.78%	1,418	38.51%	945	3.50%	86	0.20%	5	2,454
Renville	80.74%	1,065	16.68%	220	2.43%	32	0.15%	2	1,319
Richland	64.93%	5,072	32.13%	2,510	2.44%	191	0.50%	39	7,812
Rolette	33.04%	1,257	65.25%	2,482	1.58%	60	0.13%	5	3,804
Sargent	61.16%	1,266	35.65%	738	3.00%	62	0.19%	4	2,070
Sheridan	84.73%	688	12.81%	104	1.97%	16	0.49%	4	812
Sioux	21.75%	258	67.79%	804	4.05%	48	6.41%	76	1,186
Slope	89.00%	380	10.30%	44	0.47%	2	0.23%	1	427
Stark	80.47%	12,110	16.60%	2,499	2.63%	396	0.30%	45	15,050
Steele	59.93%	652	36.03%	392	3.49%	38	0.55%	6	1,088
Stutsman	70.23%	6,994	26.87%	2,676	2.50%	249	0.40%	40	9,959
Towner	70.70%	830	27.00%	317	2.13%	25	0.17%	2	1,174
Traill	60.98%	2,522	36.10%	1,493	2.66%	110	0.27%	11	4,136
Walsh	69.50%	3,324	27.87%	1,333	1.99%	95	0.65%	31	4,783
Ward	70.71%	19,974	25.82%	7,293	2.99%	845	0.47%	134	28,246
Wells	79.74%	1,893	18.62%	442	1.35%	32	0.29%	7	2,374
Williams	81.90%	11,739	15.13%	2,169	2.53%	362	0.45%	64	14,334

Notes[]

^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ "Other candidate" with 4%
^ "Other candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References[]

^ Jump up to: ^a ^b "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
^ Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
^ "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
^ "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.
^ "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
^ "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.
^ "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Retrieved March 18, 2020.
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
^ "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

External links[]

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "North Dakota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"North Dakota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of North Dakota". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
North Dakota at Ballotpedia

[withdrawn-7] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

[othercalc-26] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-27] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[28] Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

[29] "Other candidate" with 4%

[30] "Other candidate" with 3%

[31] Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

[officialresults-1] Jump up to: ^a ^b "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.

[2] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[4] Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.

[5] Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.

[2020_North_Dakota_Democratic_presidential_caucuses_ND-D-NPL-results-6] "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Retrieved June 11, 2020.

[8] "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.

[9] "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.

[10] "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.

[11] "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Retrieved March 18, 2020.

[12] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[13] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[14] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[15] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[16] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[17] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.

[18] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[19] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.

[20] "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.

[21] "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.

[22] "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.

[23] "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.

[24] "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.

[25] "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.

[32] "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

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Related	Gerrymandering Postal voting Russian interference Voter suppression

show v t Elections in North Dakota
General	2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Governor	1889 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1921 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
U.S. President	1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
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See also: Political party strength in North Dakota