2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota

2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota
Turnout	73.88%
Trump 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100%	Biden 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90%
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; Joe Biden; Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[2] South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

Trump carried South Dakota by 61.8%–35.6%, or a margin of 26.2%. Biden performed four points better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Despite this not being her home state, this was Jo Jorgensen’s best state with 2.65% of the vote.

Analysis[]

South Dakota, a majority-White, mainly-rural state in the Midwestern Plains, is normally a Republican stronghold at both the state and presidential levels, despite being more populated than--and voting to the left of--its Northern counterpart. It hasn't been won by a Democrat since LBJ carried it in 1964, and has only been so much as competitive in four elections since then: 1976, Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 victories, and 2008.

Despite Trump's win in the state, Biden flipped majority-Native American Ziebach County back to Democratic after it flipped red in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump held the majority-Native American counties of Bennett, Mellette and Jackson, while he actually grew his support in Corson County, which is completely encompassed by the Standing Rock Indian Reservation, marking his increased percentage among Native voters. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump carried Caucasians with 63%; they comprised 94% of the electorate.^[4] A sparsely populated state with a rural and conservative lifestyle, South Dakota has an agrarian populist streak^[5] to which Trump made direct appeals. He campaigned personally in the state, using Mount Rushmore as a backdrop to cast himself as waging battle against a "new far-left fascism".^[6]

While Biden didn't win Minnehaha County, home to the state's largest city, Sioux Falls, that Barack Obama won by less than one percent in 2008, he reduced Trump's 2016 14.6 percent winning margin in the county to 9.4, although Trump received a higher percentage of votes in the county than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

Primary elections[]

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary[]

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 29 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[7]

Democratic primary[]

2020 South Dakota Democratic presidential primary^[8]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[9]
Joe Biden	40,800	77.48%	13
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	11,861	22.52%	3
Total	52,661	100%	16

Libertarian nominee[]

Prior to the South Dakota primaries, the 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election[]

Final predictions[]

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report^[10]	Solid R
Inside Elections^[11]	Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[12]	Safe R
Politico^[13]	Solid R
RCP^[14]	Solid R
Niskanen^[15]	Safe R
CNN^[16]	Solid R
The Economist^[17]	Safe R
CBS News^[18]	Likely R
270towin^[19]	Safe R
ABC News^[20]	Solid R
NPR^[21]	Likely R
NBC News^[22]	Solid R
538^[23]	Solid R

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Aggregate polls


Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided ^[a]	Margin
270 to Win	October 17–25 , 2020	November 3, 2020	42.0%	52.5%	5.5%	Trump +10.5
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	39.0%	54.5%	6.5%	Trump +15.4
Average			40.5%	53.5%	6.0%	Trump +13.0

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	606 (LV)	± 5.5%	63%^[c]	36%	–	–	–
Nielson Brothers Polling	Oct 24–28, 2020	484 (LV)	± 4.45%	55%	40%	3%	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	1,098 (LV)	–	57%	41%	–	–	–
Mason-Dixon	Oct 19–21, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4%	51%	40%	–	3%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	354 (LV)	–	58%	41%	–	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	277 (LV)	–	59%	38%	–	–	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	396 (LV)	–	62%	35%	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	160 (LV)	–	61%	37%	–	–	2%

Electoral slates[]

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:^[24]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party	Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party	Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party
Kristi Noem^[d] Larry Rhoden Jason Ravnsborg	Joseph M. Yracheta Nicole A. Gronli Randy Seiler	Devin Saxon Tracey Quint N/A

Results[]

2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota^[26]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	261,043	61.77%	+0.24%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	150,471	35.61%	+3.87%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	11,095	2.63%	-3.00%
Total votes			422,609	100.00%

Results by county[]

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Total votes
County	%	#	%	#	%	#	Total votes
Aurora	74.88%	1,052	22.56%	317	2.56%	36	1,405
Beadle	67.90%	4,808	29.76%	2,107	2.34%	166	7,081
Bennett	58.66%	694	39.39%	466	1.94%	23	1,183
Bon Homme	74.48%	2,235	24.03%	721	1.50%	45	3,001
Brookings	54.92%	8,000	41.94%	6,110	3.14%	457	14,567
Brown	60.30%	10,580	37.26%	6,538	2.44%	429	17,547
Brule	70.28%	1,750	27.03%	673	2.69%	67	2,490
Buffalo	33.33%	183	64.12%	352	2.55%	14	549
Butte	77.70%	3,731	19.55%	939	2.75%	132	4,802
Campbell	85.57%	747	13.40%	117	1.03%	9	873
Charles Mix	67.46%	2,552	31.11%	1,177	1.43%	54	3,783
Clark	74.22%	1,373	23.62%	437	2.16%	40	1,850
Clay	43.10%	2,456	54.11%	3,083	2.79%	159	5,698
Codington	68.06%	8,958	29.15%	3,837	2.78%	366	13,161
Corson	50.43%	647	48.48%	622	1.09%	14	1,283
Custer	70.11%	3,852	27.70%	1,522	2.18%	120	5,494
Davison	66.39%	5,613	31.32%	2,648	2.28%	193	8,454
Day	63.06%	1,869	35.49%	1,052	1.45%	43	2,964
Deuel	72.30%	1,699	25.91%	609	1.79%	42	2,350
Dewey	40.18%	790	57.53%	1,131	2.29%	45	1,966
Douglas	86.00%	1,468	12.65%	216	1.35%	23	1,707
Edmunds	77.48%	1,538	21.01%	417	1.51%	30	1,985
Fall River	71.20%	2,878	26.05%	1,053	2.75%	111	4,042
Faulk	81.56%	964	16.75%	198	1.69%	20	1,182
Grant	69.91%	2,618	28.20%	1,056	1.90%	71	3,745
Gregory	78.43%	1,771	20.15%	455	1.42%	32	2,258
Haakon	90.24%	1,026	9.23%	105	0.53%	6	1,137
Hamlin	76.94%	2,372	20.99%	647	2.08%	64	3,083
Hand	78.05%	1,433	20.32%	373	1.63%	30	1,836
Hanson	75.08%	1,793	23.32%	557	1.59%	38	2,388
Harding	92.00%	748	6.03%	49	1.97%	16	813
Hughes	63.30%	5,522	33.85%	2,953	2.84%	248	8,723
Hutchinson	78.15%	2,944	20.23%	762	1.62%	61	3,767
Hyde	79.44%	564	19.15%	136	1.41%	10	710
Jackson	66.19%	738	32.20%	359	1.61%	18	1,115
Jerauld	71.67%	721	26.84%	270	1.49%	15	1,006
Jones	83.14%	498	15.03%	90	1.84%	11	599
Kingsbury	68.51%	1,904	29.47%	819	2.02%	56	2,779
Lake	62.68%	3,681	35.21%	2,068	2.11%	124	5,873
Lawrence	63.30%	8,753	32.81%	4,537	3.89%	538	13,828
Lincoln	60.55%	19,617	36.98%	11,981	2.46%	798	32,396
Lyman	65.25%	1,042	32.87%	525	1.88%	30	1,597
Marshall	59.09%	1,287	39.39%	858	1.52%	33	2,178
McCook	71.31%	2,068	26.52%	769	2.17%	63	2,900
McPherson	81.19%	1,075	16.77%	222	2.04%	27	1,324
Meade	72.24%	9,875	24.03%	3,285	3.73%	510	13,670
Mellette	58.39%	449	38.75%	298	2.86%	22	769
Miner	69.16%	787	28.12%	320	2.72%	31	1,138
Minnehaha	53.34%	49,249	43.85%	40,482	2.81%	2,595	92,326
Moody	60.85%	1,951	36.77%	1,179	2.37%	76	3,206
Oglala Lakota	9.28%	297	88.41%	2,829	2.31%	74	3,200
Pennington	60.96%	35,063	35.83%	20,606	3.21%	1,849	57,518
Perkins	83.94%	1,401	14.32%	239	1.74%	29	1,669
Potter	82.54%	1,139	16.45%	227	1.01%	14	1,380
Roberts	55.82%	2,404	42.44%	1,828	1.74%	75	4,307
Sanborn	76.37%	905	21.69%	257	1.94%	23	1,185
Spink	66.52%	2,104	31.55%	998	1.93%	61	3,163
Stanley	72.82%	1,203	25.48%	421	1.69%	28	1,652
Sully	78.06%	726	19.89%	185	2.04%	19	930
Todd	20.95%	532	77.31%	1,963	1.73%	44	2,539
Tripp	80.16%	2,161	18.36%	495	1.48%	40	2,696
Turner	72.34%	3,290	25.04%	1,139	2.62%	119	4,548
Union	67.13%	5,944	30.77%	2,725	2.10%	186	8,855
Walworth	76.20%	1,966	21.90%	565	1.90%	49	2,580
Yankton	60.38%	6,581	36.84%	4,016	2.78%	303	10,900
Ziebach	44.59%	404	53.09%	481	2.32%	21	906

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

Ziebach (largest municipality: Dupree)

Notes[]

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ After her election, Noem was replaced by Dan Lederman.^[25]

References[]

^ "Voter turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.
^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "South Dakota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
^ Cohen, Micah (August 24, 2012). "In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
^ "Remarks by President Trump at South Dakota's 2020 Mount Rushmore Fireworks Celebration | Keystone, South Dakota". The White House. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
^ "South Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
^ "2020 Primary State Canvass Report and Certificate" (PDF). electionresults.sd.gov. South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.
^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
^ "Certificate of Ascertainment of Election" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
^ Zionts, Arielle (January 19, 2021). "Noem meeting with Trump on Monday instead of voting for him in Electoral College". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved July 25, 2021.
^ "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). sdsos.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

External links[]

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "South Dakota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"South Dakota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of South Dakota". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
South Dakota at Ballotpedia

[othercalc-24] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-25] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[26] Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

[29] After her election, Noem was replaced by Dan Lederman.^[25]

[1] "Voter turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.

[2] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[4] "South Dakota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.

[5] Cohen, Micah (August 24, 2012). "In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 17, 2020.

[6] "Remarks by President Trump at South Dakota's 2020 Mount Rushmore Fireworks Celebration | Keystone, South Dakota". The White House. Retrieved November 17, 2020.

[GP-GOP-7] "South Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.

[2020_South_Dakota_Democratic_presidential_primary_SD-SOS-results-8] "2020 Primary State Canvass Report and Certificate" (PDF). electionresults.sd.gov. South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.

[2020_South_Dakota_Democratic_presidential_primary_SD-AP-delegates-9] "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 2, 2020.

[10] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[11] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[12] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[13] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[14] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-15] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

[16] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[17] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.

[18] "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.

[19] "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.

[20] "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.

[21] "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.

[22] "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.

[23] "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.

[27] "Certificate of Ascertainment of Election" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

[28] Zionts, Arielle (January 19, 2021). "Noem meeting with Trump on Monday instead of voting for him in Electoral College". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved July 25, 2021.

[30] "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). sdsos.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

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