2022 South Korean presidential election

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2022 Korean presidential election
← 2017 9 March 2022 2027 →
  Lee Jae-myung presidential candidate portrait.jpg Yoon Suk-yeol appears on 3Pro TV and explains his economic policy.png
Nominee Lee Jae-myung Yoon Seok-youl
Party Democratic People Power
  Sim Sang-jung taking a commemorative photo with the Speaker of the National Assembly.jpg Ahn Cheol-Soo cropped (cropped).jpg
Nominee Sim Sang-jung Ahn Cheol-soo
Party Justice People
Incumbent President

Moon Jae-in
Democratic



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The 2022 South Korean presidential election, or 20th Republic of Korea presidential election (Korean: 제20대 대한민국 대통령 선거) in South Korea, is scheduled to be held in South Korea on 9 March 2022. It will be the eighth presidential election since democratization. Under the South Korean constitution, the president is restricted to a single five-year term in office,[1] meaning the incumbent president Moon Jae-in is ineligible to run for a second term.

Background[]

Electoral system[]

The President of South Korea is elected via a single round plurality voting system. The President serves a term of five years and is ineligible to seek re-election either directly or indirectly.

Following the 2016 South Korean political scandal which led to the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, an early election was called. Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party defeated Hong Jun-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party and centrist Ahn Cheol-soo of the People Party by a wide margin in the 2017 presidential election, bringing the Democrats back to the Blue House for the first time in nine years. Following a somewhat rocky first three years in office, Moon's hand was significantly strengthened by his party's historic victory in the 2020 legislative election, which gave his party an absolute majority of 180 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly.[2]

Fall and rebound in President Moon's popularity[]

Moon Jae-in's presidential job approval rating, by Gallup Korea

However, by April 2021, President Moon's approval rating fell into the low 30s, the lowest of his term, leading to the famous tabloid headline "Not Over The Moon With Moon".[3] The Moon administration's fall in public approval was attributed to the perception of double standards, as seen in the alleged meddling of former Justice Minister Cho Kuk and his wife in their children's school admissions, contentious reforms to the national prosecution service leading to the resignation of the Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (who is speculated to stand for the presidency in 2022), the Moon administration's perceived failings in real estate policies such as tightening of borrowing rules and raising various home-related taxes, affecting young people who wish to buy a home of their own. A property speculation scandal which erupted in late March 2021 in South Korea's top housing agency, the Korea Land & Housing Corporation (LH) at a time of rising house prices was also blamed on the government, leading to the Democrats' defeats in the April 2021 South Korean by-elections for mayoralties of Seoul and Busan.[4] Following the by-election setbacks, Moon was perceived to be a lame duck, with a year to go before the 2022 elections to replace him.[5] However, Moon's approval ratings were the highest for any president entering his or her final year in office, compared to his predecessors.[6] By January 2022, his approval rating hovered around 45 percent, at least 20 points higher than the rating of any of his predecessors at the same point in their presidencies.[7]

Shift in male youth support to conservatives[]

Notably, in addition to the backlash caused by housing policies for young voters, the swing against the Democratic Party was also attributed to its continued support for feminism and pro-women policies, which caused a backlash among young men and prompting male voters in the 20s to vote for the conservatives. Among male voters in their 20s in Seoul, the PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon received a staggering 72.5 percent support in the exit poll. Seoul exit polls showed that young voters, who have traditionally sided with the Democratic Party, voted for the conservative People's Power Party (PPP) by huge majorities, by a margin of 55.3 percent to 34.1 percent among voters in their 20s, and 56.5 percent to 38.7 percent among voters in their 30s.[8][9]

In addition, the opposition People Power Party elected 36 year old Lee Jun-seok as the new party chief in June 2021, defeating four other established politicians while putting concerns of young people and opposition for affirmative action at the heart of his pitch and also announcing plans for a 'big tent' approach for the party's appeal to the electorate, which is seen as a generational shift in South Korean politics.[10] Thus the youth vote is seen to be a swing demographic in the 2022 elections.

Rise of political 'outsider' candidates[]

Multiple leading presidential hopefuls, including former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chair Choi Jae-hyung, had never held or run for an elective office. In addition, the Democratic frontrunner Gyeonggi governor Lee Jae-myung had never been a member of the National Assembly. Political commentators observed that the rise of those without legislative careers reflected growing public distrust in South Korea's establishment politicians, which was also observed in the surprise election of Lee Jun-seok, a 36-year-old who has never held a public office, as the youngest-ever chairman of the opposition People Power Party (PPP).[11]

Candidates[]

Democratic Party[]

The Democratic Party (Korean: 더불어민주당) is the ruling political party of South Korea following its victories in the 2017 presidential election, 2018 local elections and the 2020 National Assembly election. It should be understood that the Democratic Party, while technically founded in 2014, is part of a lineage of parties that originated from the conservative 1955 Democratic Party.[12] Parties in this lineage gradually shifted their ideology over the course of decades, and the 2014 Democratic Party is considered to be a big tent party comprising both centrist[13] and liberal factions.[14]

Politicians in this party generally support a social market economy with a strong social safety net, anti-corruption measures, direct democracy, and environmentalist policies.[15] On matters of foreign policy, the party supports reconciliation and eventual reunification with North Korea.[16] The party is particularly strong in Honam region.[17] Incumbent president Moon Jae-in, a member of the party, is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.

Primary campaign[]

Following and prior to his victory in the crucial district of Jongno in the 2020 legislative election, former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon emerged as the frontrunner for both the Democratic Party's nomination and the general election. Lee, who is celebrated for his expertise on Japanese relations[18][19] and administrative capabilities he has shown during his time as South Jeolla Provincial Governor[20] and President Moon Jae-in's first Prime minister,[21] received wide support from Moon's faction of the party evinced by his landslide victory in the party leadership contest of August 2020.[22] However, Lee's January 2021 proposal to pardon corrupt former conservative presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak faced backlash and led to a fall in his support. Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-Myung, who ran a left-wing populist campaign for president in 2017 while Mayor of Seongnam, has emerged as the most popular prospective candidate across parties as a result of his well-received response to the 2019 coronavirus pandemic and his proposal for a universal basic income.[23] Moon's second prime minister, Chung Sye-kyun, also resigned to run for the presidency.[24]

The primary campaign saw clashes which became increasingly heated between Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung.[25]

Primary schedule and process[]

The nominating primaries were scheduled to be held in September 2021, although representatives of the Lee Nak-yon and Chung Sye-kyun campaigns called for the primaries to be delayed to November.[26] The calls to delay the primary are seen to be attempts to prevent frontrunner Lee Jae-myung from getting the nomination, as he is the most preferred candidate among the public and the party.[27]

On 25 June, the party's supreme council decided to hold the primary as scheduled by 10 September.[26] The timetable for the process was as follows:[26]

  • 28 to 30 June - Registration of candidates
  • 9 to 11 July - Preliminary primary involving a 50:50 survey of the general public and party members
  • 11 July - announcement of the top six candidates eligible for the main primary
  • Before 10 September - Announcement of primary result and party nominee

On 19 July, the party announced a delay in the final selection of candidates to mid-October due to an upsurge in COVID-19 cases in South Korea.[28]

Following the completion of the nationwide primaries on 10 October 2021, Lee Jae-myung was announced as the party's candidate for president.

Results[]
Candidate Place Votes Percentage
Lee Jae-myung Nominated 719,905 50.29%
Lee Nak-yeon 2nd 560,392 39.14%
Choo Mi-ae 3rd 129,035 9.01%
Park Yong-jin 4th 22,261 1.55%
1,431,593 100%

The votes above only count the votes cast for the four candidates who stayed in the race up to the final round of the primary and does not include votes received by Chung Sye-kyun and Kim Doo-kwan, who both dropped out midway. Before dropping out, Chung had received 23,731 votes and Kim received 4,411 votes.[29]

On 10 October, following the announcement of Lee Jae-myung's nomination, Lee Nak-yeon campaign stated they would appeal the results. A day later, the campaign submitted a formal appeal to the party. Rep. Hong Young-pyo, co-chair of the Lee Nak-yeon campaign, said that the votes of Kim and Chung should be included in the final result, in which case Lee Jae-myung's vote share would be reduced to 49.32% and run-off would be required. However, party chairman Song Young-gil told reporters he would reject the appeal and urged the former prime minister to concede. Song added that the specific clause of excluding votes received by withdrawn candidates from the final tally was approved during the party convention of August 2020 when Lee Nak-yeon himself was elected party chairman.[29]

On 13 October, the Party Affairs committee, with 64 of the 76 panel members attending, voted by acclamation to dismiss the appeal. Lee Nak-yeon formally conceded and vowed to do his part to ensure the party's victory in the March election.[30]

Candidate[]

Democratic Party of Korea, Symbol application 3.svg
Democratic Party Ticket
Lee Jae-myung
for President
Lee Jae-myung presidential candidate portrait.jpg
35th
Governor of Gyeonggi Province
(2018–2021)
Campaign
Campaign logo of Lee Jae-myung for President of South Korea.png

Other primary candidates[]

The following individuals were candidates for the Democratic party primaries until the conclusion of the nomination process on 10 October, in sequence of announcement of candidacy:

  • Lee Nak-yeon (announced 5 July 2021)

  • Park Yong-jin (announced 9 May 2021)

  • Choo Mi-ae (announced 23 June 2021)

Eliminated candidates[]

On 11 July 2021, Democratic Party of Korea narrowed its primary candidates down to six in the first round of the party primary. As a result, two candidates were eliminated.[39]

  • Yang Seung-jo (announced 12 May 2021)

  • Choi Moon-soon (announced 1 June 2021)

Withdrawn candidates[]

People Power Party[]

The People Power Party (Korean: 국민의힘) is the current iteration of a long line of Korean conservative parties that, throughout modern Korean history, rivaled the long line of parties in the Democratic Party lineage. The party was formally established in 2020[51] following a merger of multiple conservative parties created in the fallout of the 2016 South Korean corruption scandal that led to the fall of conservative president Park Geun-hye and her Saenuri Party. In the 2017 presidential election, the party's legal predecessor nominated right-wing populist[52] Hong Jun-pyo, who went on to lose the election to liberal Moon Jae-in.

The party lost further ground in the 2020 National Assembly election.[53] However, the party has since regained ground after retaking the mayor's offices of Seoul and Busan in the 2021 South Korean by-elections. On matters of policy, politicians in this party generally support liberal economic policies (including support for chaebols,[54] the industrial conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy) and hold conservative positions on national security, including hawkish stances on North Korea.[55] The party is particularly strong in the southeastern Gyeongsang region.[56]

Under new party chairman Lee Jun-seok's plans for a 'big tent' approach for the party's appeal to the electorate and desire to unify opposition forces against the Democratic Party, up to 14 individuals have declared or expressed interest in running for the PPP nomination. Another opposition candidate Ahn Cheol-soo is not a member of the PPP.[10]

Primary campaign[]

Yoon Seok-youl, was seen as the frontrunner for the party's nomination since early 2020 despite not initially being a member of the party.[57][58] Yoon led a January 2021 opinion poll as the most favored presidential candidate at 30.4 percent, over the ruling Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon.[59] Yoon had expressed interest in joining the party, but had also not ruled out the possibility of creating his own party and then forging an electoral alliance with the PPP afterwards.[60] After officially declaring his candidacy on 29 June 2021, Yoon officially joined the PPP on 30 July.[61][62][63]

At one point, former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, a longtime prosecutor who entered politics as Minister of Justice and later became acting President of South Korea following Park Geun-hye's removal from office, was briefly seen as the most likely right-wing candidate for the 2022 presidential election during a period in 2019.[64] However, his high-profile defeat in the 2020 South Korean legislative election in the crucial Jongno district by Democratic 2022 presidential candidate and former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon obliterated his standing in national polling.[65]

Right-wing populist Hong Jun-pyo, the conservative opponent of Moon in 2017, is seeking the PPP nomination again for 2022.[66]

Former National Assembly member Yoo Seong-min, one of the most prominent conservative opponents of Park Geun-hye and a co-founder of the breakaway Bareun Party in 2016, announced his candidacy in May 2020.[67]

Choi Jae-hyung, former Chairman of the Board of Audit and Inspection, joined the party on 15 July 2021.[68] On 26 July, Choi officially registered his candidacy with the National Election Commission.[69] On 30 July, upon frontrunner Yoon Seok-youl's entrance into the People Power Party, Choi personally welcomed Yoon in a small COVID-19-aware media ceremony.[69]

Chang Sŏng-min, former aide to president Kim Dae-jung and former member of the National Assembly (2000–2002) joined PPP on 2 August and announced his candidacy on 15 August 2021.[70]

In August 2021, the primary campaign was marked by clashes between party chairman Lee and frontrunner Yoon. Yoon was accused of snubbing planned debates between the primary contenders mooted by Lee and the party leadership as Yoon was allegedly unprepared for debate questioning, including scandals involving his family and lacking broad knowledge on various social issues, as evidenced by gaffes made during the campaign. Yoon attacked Lee, calling him "self-righteous" while Lee hit back and said Yoon was uncooperative with the party leadership.[71] In addition, Lee was also accused of being partial and taking sides, regarded as unbecoming of a party chairman's role.[72] Other PPP candidates waded into the issue and criticised Yoon.[73]

Yoon was charged by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) on multiple charges, including abuse of power on 10 September, for allegedly prodding the PPP to lodge criminal complaints against pro-government figures ahead of the April 2020 parliamentary elections to possibly influence the polls.[74] By this point, Yoon was no longer a stable frontrunner for the PPP nomination, instead, 2017 candidate Hong Jun-pyo had overtaken Yoon according to several opinion polls.[75]

During the campaign, Yoon made a series of controversial statements which took a toll on his support:[76]

  • Criticizing the Moon administration's 52-hour work week policy, Yoon called for more flexibility for corporate managers, saying that, for example, employees at a game development studio should be able to work up to 120 hours a week during peak season and given ample downtime when work was slow. (Currently, South Korea already has among the longest working hours among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states)
  • implying that the growing feminist movement in South Korea was a factor in the country's low birthrate
  • "Poor people should be allowed to choose to have inferior food to eat at lower prices", in reference to government regulations and food safety.
  • On Japan's Fukushima power plant, that "basically radiation leaks did not occur as the power plant itself wasn't destroyed."
  • In October 2021, Yoon said of former president and dictator Chun Doo-hwan, "Many people still consider Chun as having done well in politics, except the military coup and the Gwangju Uprising," and added the claim that some people in the southwestern region of Honam, which includes Gwangju, also think that way.[77] This comment was criticized by both the Democratic party and even within the PPP. To make matters worse, after Yoon made a reluctant apology, a photo posted on Instagram of his dog being fed an apple caused controversy. In Korean, "apology" and "apple" are homonyms and the fact that Yoon's dog was given the fruit only hours after the public apology led to criticism that Yoon was not truly sorry and dismissed the people as dogs.[78]
Results[]
Candidate Place Votes Percentage
Yoon Seok-youl Nominated 347,963 47.85%
Hong Jun-pyo 2nd 301,786 41.50%
Yoo Seong-min 3rd 54,304 7.47%
Won Hee-ryong 4th 23,085 3.17%
727,138 100%

Candidate[]

Logo of People Power Party of Korea (Logo only).svg
People Power Party Ticket
Yoon Seok-youl
for President
Yoon Suk-yeol appears on 3Pro TV and explains his economic policy.png
Prosecutor General of South Korea
(2019–2021)

Other candidates[]

The following individuals were candidates for the People Power Party primaries until the conclusion of the nomination process on 5 November, in sequence of announcement of candidacy:

Eliminated candidates[]

The following candidates were eliminated by a party cut-off process on 15 September.

The following 4 candidates were eliminated on 8 October.[85]

Withdrawn candidates[]

  • Yun Hee-suk, member of the National Assembly (2020–2021)[93][94] (announced 2 July 2021, ended campaign on 25 August)
  • Kim Tae-ho, member of the National Assembly (2011–2016, 2020–present) and former Governor of South Gyeongsang (2002–2010)[95][96] (announced 15 July 2021, ended campaign on 17 August)

Did not run[]

Amid reports of a dossier detailing illegal activities of Yoon Seok-youl and his family in late June 2021, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who had recently won the April 2021 mayoral by-election, was speculated to join the primary race if Yoon dropped out. Ultimately this did not materialize.[89]

Another candidate who intended to run for the PPP nomination was Ahn Cheol-soo, founder and leader of the People Party.[89] Ahn, a former medical doctor, software engineer and National Assembly member who is known for his centrist views, is considered a possible candidate following his performance in the 2017 presidential election. Ahn had also recently run for Mayor of Seoul in the 2021 by-elections, but had pulled out of the race and supported PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon after losing opinion surveys to Oh, who would go on to win the race. On 22 June 2021, Ahn began negotiations with the PPP and its party leader Lee Jun-seok, reportedly considering a merger between his People Party and the PPP and a bid for the presidency on the PPP ticket.[89] These negotiations ended unsuccessfully on 16 August due to disagreements on party-level issues such as proposed changes to the PPP's name and method of picking a 2022 candidate.[97]

Justice Party[]

The Justice Party (Korean: 정의당) is a centre-left, social democratic and progressive party that was founded in October 2012. The party has been the third largest party in the National Assembly after the 2020 election.

Candidate[]

Jeongeuidang logo.svg
Justice Party Ticket
Sim Sang-jung
for President
Sim Sang-jung taking a commemorative photo with the Speaker of the National Assembly.jpg
Member of the National Assembly
(2012–)

Other primary candidates[]

  • Lee Jeong-mi, former member of the National Assembly (2016–2020) and former leader of the Justice Party (2017–2019) (announced 23 August 2021)[100]
  • Hwang Sun-sik, two-term member of the Gwacheon City Council in Gyeonggi-do. (announced 31 August 2021)
  • Kim Yun-gi, acting Representative of the Justice Party (announced 2 September 2021)

People Party[]

The People Party (Korean: 국민의당) is a conservative liberal, socially conservative and reformist party that was registered in February 2020. The party is considered a minor or third party, as current politics is mostly dominated by the centre-left Democratic Party of Korea and the right-wing People Power Party. It is the most recent party founded by centrist politician Ahn Cheol-soo, a former medical doctor and software executive who ran for president in the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections and emerged at various points as a possible winning contender. In the 2017 election, Ahn emerged as a major threat to eventual winner Moon Jae-in, at one point polling nearly even with Moon before collapsing in polling and finishing behind conservative firebrand candidate Hong Jun-pyo with approximately 21.41% of the vote. In the 2020 National Assembly election, the People Party fared poorly, winning a mere 3 seats; in comparison, Ahn's previous outfit, the identically named People Party, won an unexpectedly large 38 seats in the 2016 National Assembly election. In the 2021 elections, Ahn ran for Mayor of Seoul, but, in a pre-negotiated deal with the PPP, pulled out of the race after losing opinion polls to PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon and supported Oh, who would go on to win the election.

Ahn was considering a candidacy and party merger with the People Power Party. However, the negotiations between Ahn and PPP leader Lee Jun-seok ended with hostilities on 16 August 2021.[98]

On 8 October 2021, the Party's "Central Party Election Planning Group" was launched, and it took the first steps in the process of selecting a presidential candidate.[101]

On 1 November 2021, Ahn Cheol-soo announced his candidacy in the 2022 presidential election.[102] The People Party's Central Party Election Planning Group stated it would receive applications for other presidential candidates for two days following Ahn's announcement, but it was considered merely a formality and that Ahn would certainly be the People Party's presidential candidate.[103]

On 3 November, Ahn publicly rejected the idea of merging the candidacies of the People Party and the People Power Party.[104]

On 4 November, Ahn was chosen as the People Party nominee with 92% of the vote, and he accepted the nomination.[105][106]

Candidate[]

Logo of People Party of Korea (2020).svg
People Party Ticket
Ahn Cheol-soo
for President
Ahn Cheol-Soo cropped (cropped).jpg
Leader of the People Party
(2020–)

Minor party candidates[]

Party Candidate Position Notes
National Revolutionary Dividends Party Huh Kyung-young Syncretic Party founder and 2021 candidate for Seoul Mayor, 1997 and 2007 Republican presidential candidate.[108]
Progressive Party Kim Jae-yeon Left-wing to far-left Former member of the National Assembly (2012–2014).
Our Republican Party Cho Won-jin Far-right Former member of the National Assembly (2008–2020). Saenuri Party's presidential candidate in the 2017 presidential election[109]
National Revolutionary Party Ko Young-il Lawyer
Korean Unification Party Lee Gyeong-hee Ethnic nationalism
New Wave - Squid Party Kim Dong-yeon Centre Endorsed by Period Transition, Future Party
Basic Income Party Oh Jun-ho Single issue
Basic income
 Member of the Korea Network of Basic Income[110]
Independent Sohn Hak-kyu Centre to centre-right Former leader of the now-defunct Bareunmirae Party and former governor of Gyeonggi (2002-2006).
Member of Parliament (2011-2012)[111]
Socialist Revolutionary Workers' Party[a] Lee Baek-yoon Left-wing
Socialism
 		Former leader Chungcheongnam-do branch of the Socialist Revolutionary Workers' Party.[112] Endorsed by the Labor Party.
New Korean Peninsula Party Park Geun-Ryeong Right-wing to far-right
National conservatism
 		Biological daughter of former dictator Park Chung-hee and younger sister of impeached and imprisoned ex-President Park Geun-hye[113]
Korean Wave Alliance Party Kim Min-chan Centre to centre-right Candidate for the 2017 Presidential election. Chairman of the World Masters Committee.

Opinion polling[]

Polling after nominees confirmed[]

2022[]

January[]
Polling firm / Client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error
Yoon Seok-youl
Ahn Cheol-soo
 Others/
Undecided 		Lead
KIR NewsPim 26 Jan 1,005 ±3.1%p 35.6% 42.4% 3.1% 8.8% 0.9% 5.6% 3.7% 6.8%
Embrain Public Munhwa Ilbo 24-25 Jan 1,001 ±3.1%p 33.5% 35.9% 3.2% 12% 0.7% N/A 14.7% 2.4%
RealMeter Oh My News 17-21 Jan 3,031 ±1.8%p 36.8% 42.0% 2.5% 10.0% N/A 8.7% 5.2%
Gallup Korea Gallup Korea 18-20 Jan 1,002 ±3.1%p 34% 33% 3% 17% 13% 1%
Global Research JTBC 16-17 Jan 1,020 ±3.1%p 34.6% 32.9% 3.3% 14% 15.2% 1.7%
PNR New Daily 14-15 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 33.8% 44.8% 3.0% 11.7% 6.7% 11.0%
RealMeter Oh My News 9-14 Jan 3,031 ±1.8%p 36.7% 40.6% 2.0% 12.9% 7.8% 3.9%
Gallup Korea Gallup Korea 11-13 Jan 1,001 ±3.1%p 37% 31% 3% 17% 12% 6%
KSOI TBS 7-8 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 37.6% 35.2% 2.3% 15.1% 0.4% 9.4% 2.4%
KRI MBC 7-8 Jan 1,003 ±3.1%p 37.1% 30.5% 4.0% 13.6% N/A 14.8% 6.6%
PNR New Daily 7-8 Jan 1,001 ±3.1%p 38.5% 37.7% 2.9% 13.4% 7.5% 0.8%
Southern Post CBS 7-8 Jan 1,002 ±3.1%p 34.1% 26.4% 3.1% 12.8% 23.6% 7.7%
RealMeter Oh My News 2-7 Jan 3,042 ±1.8%p 40.1% 34.1% 2.8% 11.1% 11.9% 6.0%
Gallup Korea Gallup Korea 6 Jan 1,002 ±3.1%p 36.0% 26.0% 5.0% 15.0% 18.0% 10.0%
Global research JTBC 5-6 Jan 1,006 ±3.1%p 38.0% 25.1% 3.0% 12.0% 21.9% 12.9%
Gallup Korea Money Today 5 Jan 1,001 ±3.1%p 37.6% 29.2% 3.6% 12.9% 0.2% 16.5% 8.4%
GGilbo NBS 5 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 36.0% 28.0% 2.0% 12.0% N/A 22.0% 8.0%
Research View UPI news 4-6 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 41% 38% 3% 13% 6% 3%
R&S Research MBN 4-5 Jan 1,003 ±3.1%p 38.5% 34.2% 3.3% 12.2% 11.8% 4.3%
Media Research OBS 4-5 Jan 1,001 ±3.1%p 40.3% 37.0% 3.6% 9.2% 2.8% 7.1% 3.3%
Korea research KBS 3-4 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 39.1% 26.0% 3.1% 10.6% 0.6% N/A 21.6% 13.1%
Korea Information Research Cheonji Daily 2 Jan 1,003 ±3.1%p 37.7% 37.1% 3.9% 10.6% 1.2% 10.5% 0.6%
Global research JTBC 1-2 Jan 1,012 ±3.1%p 37.0% 28.1% 3.2% 9.1% N/A 22.6% 8.9%
R&R Choson 1 Jan 1,013 ±3.1%p 35.5% 30.9% 4.1% 10.3% 14.4% 4.6%
KSOI TBS 31 Dec-1 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 41.0% 37.1% 2.2% 9.2% 1.1% 9.4% 3.9%
The poll gongjung Dailian 31 Dec-1 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 39.9% 36.8% 2.3% 8.0% 0.7% 12.3% 1.6%
Mudeung Daily Ace Research 31 Dec-1 Jan 1,000 ±3.1%p 44.1% 35.6% 3.8% 7.7% 0.5% 8.3% 8.5%
PNR New Daily 31 Dec-1 Jan 1,002 ±3.1%p 40.5% 40.9% 1.8% 8.5% N/A 8.3% 0.4%
R&R The Dong-a Ilbo 30 Dec-1 Jan 1,012 ±3.1%p 39.9% 30.2% 4.3% 8.6% 0.6% 16.4% 9.7%

2021[]

Polling firm / Client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error
Yoon Seok-youl
Ahn Cheol-soo
 Others/
Undecided 		Lead
NR SBS 30-31 Dec 1,003 ±3.1%p 34.9% 26.0% 2.6% 7.8% N/A N/A 28.7% 8.9%
KRI MBC 29-31 Dec 1,007 ±3.1%p 38.5% 28.4% 4.0% 8.4% 20.7% 10.1%
Korea research KBS 29-31 Dec 1,000 ±3.1%p 39.3% 27.3% 3.2% 8.1% 0.5% 21.6% 12.0%
Korea research Hankookilbo 29-30 Dec 1,005 ±3.1%p 34.3% 28.7% 4.5% 9.0% N/A 23.5% 5.6%
ARC Sportsseoul 29 Dec 1,001 ±3.1%p 41.5% 38.8% 2.0% 6.7% 3.9% 7.0% 2.7%
R&R The Segye Times 27-29 Dec 1,013 ±3.1%p 35.5% 30.9% 4.1% 10.3% N/A 19.2% 4.6%
Gallup The Seoul Shinmun 27-28 Dec 1,008 ±3.1%p 36.8% 30.8% 6.6% 9.3% 10.3% 6.0%
KSOI Harold Economy 27-28 Dec 1,002 ±3.1%p 42.9% 37.8% 3.3% 4.4% 11.5% 5.1%
Mediatomato Newstomato 25-26 Dec 1,014 ±3.1%p 40.1% 33.9% 4.5% 6.6% 1.2% 13.8% 6.2%
The poll gongjung Dailian 24-25 Dec 1,000 ±3.1%p 39.1% 37.5% 2.1% 6.5% 1.2% 13.5% 1.6%
PNR New Daily 24-25 Dec 1,000 ±3.1%p 40.4% 41.1% 2.8% 5.7% N/A 10.1% 0.7%
KSOI TBS 24-25 Dec 1,000 ±3.1%p 37.6% 35.8% 3.5% 7.3% 1.5% 14.3% 1.8%
SP Chosun 24-25 Dec 1,010 ±3.1%p 36.6% 27.7% 3.9% 4.1% N/A 24.7% 8.9%
Media research Obsnews 23-24 Dec 1,006 ±3.1%p 42.8% 35.5% 3.3% 5.7% 4.0% 8.7% 7.3%
KED Chosun 23-24 Dec 1,004 ±3.1%p 37.8% 37.5% 5.1% 8.4% 1.0% N/A 10.2% 0.3%
Realmeter YTN 20-21 Dec 1,027 ±3.1%p 37.0% 40.1% 3.6% 4.2% 1.7% 13.4% 3.1%
KSOI Hani 20 Dec 1,008 ±3.1%p 40.3% 37.4% 4.2% 4.6% 1.3% 12.1% 2.9%
20 December 2021 Yoon Seok-youl recruits Shin Ji-ye and other feminists to the campaign team.
Realmeter Ohmynews 19-24 Dec 3,090 ±1.8%p 39.7% 40.4% 2.9% 5.6% N/A N/A 11.4% 0.7%
NewsSCJ KIR 14 Dec 1,022 ±3.1%p 35.2% 44.9% 4.4% 3.9% 1.2% 4.5% 5.9% 9.7%
IMNews MBC 14 Dec 1,007 ±3.1%p 34.5% 38.7% 4.5% 5.9% N/A N/A 16.4% 4.2%
Realmeter The Watch 7-8 Dec 1,028 ±3.1%p 35.5% 37.4% 6.7% 4.1% 1.9% 4.6% 6.2%[b] 1.9%
Gallup MoneyToday 6-7 Dec 1,006 ±3.1%p 35.5% 36.4% 3.5% 6.5% 1.0% N/A 16.4% 0.1%
PNR New Daily 3-4 Dec 1,004 ±3.1%p 38.5% 42.6% 3.8% 2.9% 0.8% 4.4% 6.9% 4.1%
KSOI TBS 2-3 Dec 1,007 ±3.1%p 37.9% 41.2% 4.1% 3.2% 1.7% N/A 12.0% 4.3%
R&R ChannelA 1 Dec 1,008 ±3.1%p 35.5% 34.6% 4.9% 6.0% 1.6% 17.4% 0.9%
RealMeter Hani 29 Nov 1,000 ±3.1%p 35.1% 43.7% 3.0% 4.3% 1.1% 12.6% 8.6%
PNR Khan 23-24 Nov 1,011 ±3.1%p 37.1% 43.9% 3.8% 3.8% 0.4% 5.7%[c] 6.8%
Hani KSOI 24 Nov 1,000 ±3.1%p 39.5% 40.0% 4.5% 4.0% 1.1% 10.8% 0.5%
GET R&Search 23 Nov 1,008 ±3.1%p 36.1% 44.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.5% 3.1% 8.8% 8.4%
Gallup Money Today 22-23 Nov 1,011 ±3.1%p 37.1% 38.4% 3.0% 5.5% 1.0% N/A 15.0% 1.3%
PNR New Daily 19-20 Nov 1,007 ±3.1%p 36.7% 46.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.0% 10.1% 9.8%
Gallup Chosun Ilbo 16-18 Nov 1,000 ±3.1%p 31.0% 42.0% 5.0% 7.0% N/A 15.0% 11.0%
ARC ARC 10-11 Nov 1,006 ±3.1%p 34.6% 47.4% 2.1% 3.7% 2.9% 9.5% 12.8%
Realmeter JoongBoo Daily 9-10 Nov 810 ±3.4%p 35.4% 45.0% 4.4% 5.7% 1.8% N/A 7.7% 9.6%
PNR New Daily 5-6 Nov 1,009 ±3.1%p 31.2% 43.0% 3.7% 4.7% 1.4% 15.9% 11.8%
KSOI TBS 5-6 Nov 1,005 ±3.1%p 30.3% 45.8% 3.2% 4.7% 0.9% 15.0% 15.5%

Polling before nominees finalized[]

Polling firm / Client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		DP PPP PP Others None / Undecided Lead
Lee Jae-myung Lee Nak-yeon Choo Mi-ae Chung Sye-kyun Park Yong-jin Yoon Seok-youl Choi Jae-hyung Hong Jun-pyo Yoo Seung-min Ahn Cheol-soo
National Barometer Survey 4-6 Oct 1,006 ±3.1%p 26% 11% 1% 0% 17% 1% 15% 2% 2%
3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 1%
  • Others 1%
 15% 9%
Korea Research International MBC News 25-26 Sep 1,001 ±3.1%p 27.8% 11.7% 1.8% 0.5% 17.2% 1.1% 16.3% 2.9% 0.9%
3.9%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.9%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.9%
 15.8% 10.6%
KSOI TBS 17-18 Sep 1,004 ±3.1%p 23.6% 13.7% 2.9% - 0.8% 28.8% 1.6% 15.4% 2.9% 2.4%
3.4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2.1%
 4.6% 5.2%
National Barometer Survey 13-15 Sep 1,007 ±3.1%p 28% 11% 2% 0% 20% 1% 14% 2% 2%
3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Others 1%
 15% 8%
KSOI TBS 3-4 Sep 1,003 ±3.1%p 28.0% 11.7% 2.5% - 0.8% 26.4% 4.1% 13.6% 3.7% 1.6%
2.5%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.4%
 4.9% 1.6%
Gallup Korea 31 Aug-2 Sep 1,000 ±3.1%p 24% 8% 1% 1% - 19% 2% 6% 2% 2% 3% 32% 5%
National Barometer Survey 30 Aug-1 Sep 1,012 ±3.1%p 25% 10% 2% 1% 1% 19% 2% 10% 2% 3%
4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Others 1%
 21% 6%
KSOI TBS 27–28 Aug 1,015 ±3.1%p 29.1% 13.6% 3.0% - 0.7% 27.4% 2.3% 9.4% 3.4% 2.6%
3.4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.6%
 5.0% 1.7%
RnSearch Gyeonggi Shinmun 25-26 Aug 1,010 ±3.1%p 27.2% 15.1% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 26.8% 3.7% 8.2% 3.2% 2.3%
3.2%
  • Others 3.2%
 6.0% 0.4%
National Barometer Survey 23-25 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 26% 9% 1% 1% 0% 20% 2% 7% 2% 3%
5%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Others 1%
 25% 6%
Realmeter JTBC 21-22 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 27.7% 14.1% 2.9% 2.2% 0.3% 30.4% 5.0% 6.8% 2.6% 1.5%
3.3%
  • Others 3.3%
 3.3% 2.7%
KSOI TBS 20–21 Aug 1,007 ±3.1%p 26.8% 12.4% 3.3% 0% 0.4% 29.8% 5.1% 8.4% 3.6% 1.5%
4.1%
  • Others 4.1%
 4.5% 3%
National Barometer Survey 16-18 Aug 1,010 ±3.1%p 26% 10% 2% 1% 0% 19% 3% 4% 2% 3%
3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 2%
  • Others 0%
 25% 7%
Korea Research International MBC News 16-17 Aug 1,002 ±3.1%p 29.8% 10.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 19.5% 3.9% 5.3% 2.8% 2.8%
3.9%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.2%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.8%
 18.5% 10.3%
Next Research SBS News 13–14 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 23.2% 10.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 21.7% 3.2% 7.0% 2.3% 2.5%
3.2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.3%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1.3%
 22.3% 1.5%
KSOI TBS 13-14 Aug 1,007 ±3.1%p 26.2% 12.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 30.6% 0% 7.3% 3.4% 2.4%
5.2%
  • Others 5.2%
 5.4% 4.4%
Hankook Research KBS News 12–14 Aug 1,000 ±3.1%p 25.6% 11.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 18.1% 4.4% 4.8% 2.3% 2.4%
5.8%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.5%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1.0%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 0.6%
  • Ha Tae-kyoung 0.5%
  • Kim Du-kwan 0.4%
  • Others 1.8%
 22.2% 7.5%
Media Research OBS 11–12 Aug 1,000 ±3.1%p 26.6% 17.0% 3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 26.4% 5.6% 4.6% 2.8% 1.9%
4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.2%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.5%
 5.5% 0.2%
National Barometer Survey 9-11 Aug 1,017 ±3.1%p 23% 12% 2% 1% 0% 19% 3% 5% 2% 3%
2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
 27% 4%
Realmeter Oh My News 9-10 Aug 2,031 ±2.2%p 25.9% 12.9% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 26.3% 6.1% 5.4% 2.4% 2.3%
7.6%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.1%
  • Others 6.5%
 5.0% 0.4%
KSOI TBS 6–7 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 28.4% 16.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 28.3% 6.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.5%
2.0%
  • Others 2.0%
 3.9% 0.1%
Gallup Korea 3–5 Aug 1,001 ±3.1%p 25% 11% 1% 1% - 19% 4% 2% - 1% 3% 29% 6%
National Barometer Survey 2-4 Aug 1,003 ±3.1%p 28% 10% 2% 1% 0% 22% 3% 4% 1% 2%
4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 1%
  • Others 1%
 23% 6%
KSOI TBS 30–31 Jul 1,013 ±3.1%p 27.4% 16.0% 3.9% 1.2% 0.7% 32.3% 5.8% 4.1% 2.4% 2.2%
1.6%
  • Others 1.6%
 2.4% 4.9%
30 July 2021 Yoon Seok-youl joins the People Power Party[114]
National Barometer Survey 26-28 Jul 1,003 ±3.1%p 25% 12% 1% 1% 0% 19% 3% 3% 2% 1%
2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
 28% 6%
Hangil Research Kukinews 24–26 Jul 1,006 ±3.1%p 23.7% 15.8% 5.2% - - 29.8% - 4.4% 3.5% -
6.7%
  • Others 6.7%
 10.8% 6.1%
WinG Korea 24–25 Jul 1,008 ±3.1%p 28.6% 16.9% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 24.3% 5.9% 5% 2.6% 2%
3.5%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1.4%
  • Park Yong-jin 0.7%
  • Others 4.8%
 5.5% 4.3%
KSOI TBS 23–24 Jul 1,006 ±3.1%p 26% 18.2% 2.5% 2.3% 0.8% 26.9% 8.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2%
2.3%
  • Others 1.0%
 4.9% 0.9%
National Barometer Survey 19–21 Jul 1,005 ±3.1%p 27% 14% 2% 1% 0% 19% 3% 4% 2% 3%
4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 0%
  • Others 1%
 26% 8%
KRi MBC News 17–18 Jul 1,015 ±3.1%p 27.1% 14.6% 2.9% 1.3% 19.7% 4.8% 3.9% 1.1% 2.8%
5.5%
  • Won Hee-ryong 1.5%
  • Kim Du-kwan 1.0%
  • Kim Dong-yeon 0.9%
  • Others 2.1%
 2.4% 7.4%
Realmeter JTBC 17–18 Jul 1,000 ±3.1%p 23.8% 20.1% 4.5% 6.4% 0.9% 22% 6% 4.6% 2% 1.7%
5.5%
  • Won Hee-ryong 1.5%
  • Kim Du-kwan 1.0%
  • Kim Dong-yeon 0.9%
  • Others 2.1%
 2.4% 1.8%
KSOI TBS 16–17 Jul 1,013 ±3.1%p 25.4% 19.3% 3.4% - 0.9% 30.3% 5.6% 3.3% 2.3% 2.2%
2.3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.2%
  • Others 1.1%
 4.9% 4.9%
15 July 2021 Choi Jae-hyung joins the People Power Party[115]
National Barometer Survey 12–14 Jul 1,016 ±3.1%p 26% 14% 3% 1% 0% 20% 3% 4% 2% 2%
4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0%
  • Kim Du-kwan 0%
  • Ha Tae-kyoung 0%
  • Others 1%
 22% 6%
HRI Seoul Shinmun 12–14 Jul 1,208 ±2.83%p 27.2% 16% 2.9% 2.6% - 26.8% 5.1% 4% 3.1% 2% 0.3% 9.8% 0.4%
NEXT SBS News 12–13 Jul 1,001 ±3.1%p 25.1% 12% 3.8% 1.4% - 24.5% 3.2% 4.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2.7%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.2%
  • Kim Du-kwan 0.3%
  • Others 0.4%
 19% 0.6%
Jowon C&I Straight News 10–12 Jul 1,000 ±3.1%p 27.4% 16.4% 5% 2.8% 1.1% 28.9% 3.6% 4.8% 2.6% 2.7% '1.9% 2.9% 1.5%
WinG Korea 10–11 Jul 1,011 ±3.1%p 25.8% 16.4% 4.7% 3% 1.3% 26.4% 4.1% 4.8% 3.2% 2.1%
2.9%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1.3%
  • Ha Tae-kyoung 0.5%
  • Others 1.1%
 5.2% 0.6%
KSOI TBS 9–10 Jul 1,014 ±3.1%p 26.9% 18.1% 4.2% 1.7% - 29.9% 2.5% 4.1% 4.5% 2.1%
1.9%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.9%
  • Others 1.0%
 3.9% 3%
KSOI TBS 6-8 Jul 1,400 ±3.1%p 28.4% 16.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 28.3% 6.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.5%
2.0%
  • Others 2.0%
 3.9% 0.1%
National Barometer Survey 5–7 Jul 1,005 ±3.1%p 27% 10% 2% 2% 0% 21% - 4% 2% 2%
4%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 0%
  • Others 1%
 26% 6%
KIR News Phim 5 Jul 1,012 ±3.1%p 29% 11.8% 3.7% 2.4% 0.5% 31.6% 2.4% 4.1% 2.6% 2.4%
4.5%
  • Yoon Hui-sook 1.8%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.9%
  • Ha Tae-kyoung 0.5%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 0.4%
  • Others 0.9%
 5.1% 2.6%
Realmeter JTBC 3–4 Jul 1,015 ±3.1%p 26.3% 12.5% 6.4% 1.7% 0.4% 33.9% 2.5% 4.7% 2.3% 1.8%
4.4%
  • Kim Du-kwan 0.4%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.5%
  • Yoon Hui-sook 2.1%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 0.8%
  • Others 0.6%
 3.2% 7.6%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 3 Jul 1,001 ±3.1%p 26.2% 13.7% 4.1% 3.2% 0.8% 36.1% 2.5% 4.6% 2.5% 3.1%
3.1%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.5%
  • Others 2.6%
 3.2% 9.9%
KSOI TBS 2–3 Jul 1,002 ±3.1%p 30.3% 12.2% 3.9% 2.6% 0.5% 31.4% 3.2% 3.9% 2.3% 3.1% 1.3% 5.5% 1.1%
Global Research 30 Jun–2 Jul 1,000 ±3.1%p 26.5% 9.4% 2.4% 1.8% 0.4% 25% 2.4% 3.6% 2.9% 1.8%
2.3%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 0.7%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.6%
  • Others 1.0%
 21.5% 1.5%
Gallup Korea 29 Jun–1 Jul 1,000 ±3.1%p 24% 6% 2% 2% - 25% 2% 2% - 1% 3% 32% 1%
National Barometer Survey 28–30 Jun 1,007 ±3.1%p 27% 9% 3% 1% 1% 21% - 3% 2% 3%
6%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 1%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1%
  • Others 2%
 27% 6%
Jowon C&I Ilyo Shinmun 27–29 Jun 1,046 ±3%p 23.7% 8.4% 4.8% 3.4% 1.3% 34.3% 5.6% 6.1% 2.7% 3.9% 2.4% 3.4% 10.6%
WinG Korea 26–27 Jun 1,009 ±3.1%p 26.6% 9.5% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 30.7% 3.3% 5.7% 4.1% 2.7%
3.5%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1.2%
  • Ma Kyoung-won 1.0%
  • Others 1.3%
 5.5% 4.1%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 26 Jun 1,002 ±3.1%p 25.5% 13% 5.5% 2.6% 0.3% 32.7% 3.7% 6.1% 3.1% -
3.2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.9%
  • Others 2.3%
 4.5% 7.2%
KSOI TBS 25–26 Jun 1,004 ±3.1%p 28.4% 11.5% 4.7% - 0.7% 32.4% - 6.4% 3.1% 2.1%
6%
  • Oh Se-hoon 1.5%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.5%
  • Others 3.0%
 4.6% 4%
24 June 2021 Hong Jun-pyo rejoined the PPP (formerly the United Future Party)[116]
National Barometer Survey 21–23 Jun 1,006 ±3.1%p 27% 7% 2% 2% 0% 20% - 3% 1% 3%
4%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 1%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Others 2%
 30% 7%
Realmeter Oh My News 21–22 Jun 2,014 ±2.2%p 22.8% 8.4% 3.9% 3% 0.7% 32.3% 3.6% 4.1% 3% 2.6%
8.9%
  • Oh Se-hoon 3.2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 0.9%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1.7%
  • Choi Moon-soon 1.0%
  • Ha Tae-kyoung 0.7%
  • Others 1.4%
 6.7% 9.5%
Realmeter JTBC 19–20 Jun 1,028 ±3.1%p 29.3% 11.5% 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% 32% 3.7% 4.4% 2.4% 2.4%
2.1%
  • Kim Dong-yeon 0.8%
  • Others 1.3%
 5.2% 2.7%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 19 Jun 1,003 ±3.1%p 27.2% 13% - 4.7% - 33.9% 4.5% 4.3% - 3.1%
5.2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.8%
  • Others 3.4%
 4.2% 6.7%
KSOI TBS 18–19 Jun 1,004 ±3.1%p 25% 12.2% 2.7% - 0.9% 38% - 4% 3.1% 1.7%
7.1%
  • Oh Se-hoon 3.3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.4%
  • Others 2.4%
 5.5% 13%
KIR News Phim 18 Jun 1,012 ±3.1%p 27.2% 8.4% - 4% 0.8% 36.7% - 4.7% 2.6% 3.6%
6.7%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.6%
  • Ha Tae-kyoung 1.3%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 2.1%
  • Kim Du-kwan 1.0%
  • Others 1.7%
 5.4% 9.5%
National Barometer Survey 14–16 Jun 1,004 ±3.1%p 25% 7% 1% 1% 0% 24% - 2% 1% 3%
3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 0%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 0%
  • Others 1%
 32% 1%
WinG Korea 12–13 Jun 1,017 ±3.1%p 28.3% 10% - 2.1% 1.2% 33.3% 2.7% 3.9% 2.7% 3.2%
4.9%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1.4%
  • Won Hui-ryong 1.1%
  • Choi Moon-soon 0.5%
  • Others 1.9%
 7.5% 5%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 12 Jun 1,003 ±3.1%p 26.2% 12.3% - 2.6% - 39.1% - 5.9% - 2.7%
5.2%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.2%
  • Others 3.7%
 6.3% 12.9%
KSOI TBS 11–12 Jun 1,007 ±3.1%p 27.7% 12.6% 2.2% 1.8% - 35.5% - 4.1% 1.4% 2.6%
6.8%
  • Oh Se-hoon 2.8%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2.3%
  • Others 1.7%
 7.5% 7.8%
National Barometer Survey 7–9 Jun 1,010 ±3.1%p 24% 7% 1% 2% 0% 24% - 3% 2% 3%
3%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 0%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0%
  • Others 1%
 30% Tie
KSOI TBS 5–6 Jun 1,009 ±3.1%p 26.1% 10.2% 4% 3.5% - 31.1% - 3.5% 3% 2.5%
6.8%
  • Oh Se-hoon 4.0%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.8%
  • Others 1.9%
 8.3% 5%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 5 Jun 1,002 ±3.1%p 25.7% 13.8% - 3.7% - 35.7% - 5.4% 4.1% 2.5%
5.6%
  • Sim Sang-jung 2.0%
  • Others 3.6%
 5.9% 10%
Gallup Korea 1–3 Jun 1,002 ±3.1%p 24% 5% - 1% - 21% - 2% - 3%
11%
  • Lee Jun-seok 3.0%
  • Oh Se-hoon 2.0%
  • Others 6%
 36% 3%
National Barometer Survey 31 May–2 Jun 1,008 ±3.1%p 28% 9% 1% 2% 0% 20% - 3% 1% 3%
5%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1%
  • Hwang Kyo-ahn 2%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0%
  • Kim Boo-kyum 0%
  • Others 1%
 28% 8%
Jowon C&I Ilyo Shinmun 30 May–1 Jun 1,003 ±3.1%p 26.4% 11.3% - 3% 0.5% 28.7% 3.9% 5.8% 2.1% 3.6%
11.4%
  • Na Kyoung-won 2.6%
  • Sim Sang-jung 1.8%
  • Kim Dong-yeon 1.7%
  • Kim Du-kwan 1.3%
  • Lee Kwang-jae 1.8%
  • Yang Seung-jo 0.8%
  • Won Hui-ryong 0.5%
  • Others 0.9%
 4.1% 2.3%
For more information, visit the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee

Hypothetical polling[]

Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-youl[]

Polling firm / Client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error
Yoon Seok-youl
 Others/
Undecided 		Lead
RnSearch Gyeonggi Shinmun 3-4 Sep 1,017 ±3.1%p 34.3% 37.0% 28.7% 2.7%
National Barometer Survey 30 Aug-1 Sep 1,012 ±3.1%p 42% 35% 23% 7%
RnSearch Gyeonggi Shinmun 25-26 Aug 1,010 ±3.1%p 34.1% 38.8% 27.0% 4.7%
National Barometer Survey 23-25 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 40% 34% 27% 6%
Realmeter Oh My News 23-24 Aug 2,015 ±2.2%p 36.3% 42.5% 21.2% 6.2%
Jowon C&I Straight News 21-23 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 35.6% 41.7% 22.6% 6.1%
Hangil Research Polinews 21-23 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 37.0% 42.6% 20.5% 5.6%
Realmeter JTBC 21-22 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 39.4% 42.6% 18.0% 3.2%
Gallup Korea 17-19 Aug 1,001 ±3.1%p 46% 34% 19% 12%
National Barometer Survey 16-18 Aug 1,010 ±3.1%p 43% 35% 23% 8%
Korea Research International MBC News 16-17 Aug 1,002 ±3.1%p 44.7% 35.3% 19.9% 9.4%
Next Research SBS News 13–14 Aug 1,004 ±3.1%p 36.9% 35.4% 27.6% 1.5%
Hankook Research KBS News 12–14 Aug 1,000 ±3.1%p 44.2% 36.9% 18.9% 7.3%
National Barometer Survey 9-11 Aug 1,017 ±3.1%p 41% 33% 27% 8%
PNR New Daily 10 Aug 1,011 ±3.1%p 35.4% 42.4% 22.2% 7%
Realmeter Oh My News 9-10 Aug 2,031 ±2.2%p 35.9% 42.1% 22.0% 6.2%
Jowon C&I Straight News 7-9 Aug 1,003 ±3.1%p 38.1% 38.4% 23.6% 0.3%
WinG Korea 7-8 Aug 1,006 ±3.1%p 41.8% 41.3% 16.9% 0.5%
National Barometer Survey 2-4 Aug 1,003 ±3.1%p 42% 35% 23% 7%
Jowon C&I Ilyo Shinmun 1-3 Aug 1,000 ±3.1%p 35.7% 42.5% 21.9% 6.8%
Realmeter News the One 28-29 Jul 1,003 ±3.1%p 36.1% 46.6% 17.3% 10.5%
RnSearch MBN/Maeil Business 26-28 Jul 1,102 ±3%p 34.6% 38.3% 27.2% 3.7%
Jowon C&I Straight News 24–26 Jul 1,001 ±3.1%p 38% 40.2% 21.8% 2.2%
Hangil Research Kukinews 24–26 Jul 1,006 ±3.1%p 36.9% 41.1% 21.9% 4.2%
National Barometer Survey 19–21 Jul 1,003 ±3.1%p 46% 33% 20% 13%
KRi MBC News 17–18 Jul 1,015 ±3.1%p 43% 41% 16% 2%
Realmeter JTBC 17–18 Jul 1,000 ±3.1%p 44% 34.9% 18.6% 9.1%
Realmeter Seoul Shinmun 12–14 Jul 1,208 ±2.83%p 48.9% 43% 8.1% 5.9%
RnSearch MBN/Maeil Business 12–14 Jul 1,060 ±3%p 33.7% 37.9% 28.4% 4.2%
Realmeter Oh My News 12–13 Jul 2,036 ±2.2%p 38.6% 39.4% 22% 0.8%
NEXT SBS News 12–13 Jul 1,001 ±3.1%p 36.9% 34% 29.1% 2.9%
Hangil Research Kukinews 10–12 Jul 1,001 ±3.1%p 43.9% 36% 20.1% 7.9%
WinG Korea 10–11 Jul 1,011 ±3.1%p 41.5% 42.2% 16.3% 0.7%
National Barometer Survey 5–7 Jul 1,005 ±3.1%p 43% 33% 24% 9%
Realmeter JTBC 3–4 Jul 1,015 ±3.1%p 39.4% 43.6% 17% 4.2%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 3 Jul 1,001 ±3.1%p 41.8% 49.8% 9.4% 8%
RnSearch MBN/Maeil Business 28–30 Jun 1,000 ±3%p 34.7% 41.4% 24.9% 6.7%
Jowon C&I Ilyo Shinmun 27–29 Jun 1,000 ±3.1%p 33.1% 44.9% 22.1% 11.8%
WinG Korea Asia Business 26–27 Jun 1,009 ±3.1%p 40.5% 48.7% 10.8% 8.2%
PNR Money Today/Mirae Hankook 26 Jun 1,002 ±3.1%p 40.5% 50.5% 9% 10%
Realmeter Oh My News 21–22 Jun 2,014 ±2.2%p 35.1% 47.7% 17.3% 12.6%
For more information, visit the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee

Campaign developments[]

Campaign issues[]

The main priorities that the next president should tackle were solving real estate issues, economic recovery and response to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a Gallup poll in January 2022.[117][118]

Negative campaigning and candidate unpopularity[]

During the primary campaign, observers noted that the presidential campaign was going down as the most negative campaign in South Korea's recent history, as the candidates were described to be busy mudslinging at each other and not competing on the basis of values, platforms or policies.

A Hankyoreh commentary said PPP candidates like Yoo Seong-min, Won Hee-ryong, and Choi Jae-hyung, and Lee Nak-yeon and Chung Sye-kyun on the Democratic side struggled in their respective party primaries as they were too "elite" and too "respectable". The commentary also attributed to the success of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic candidate, and Hong Jun-pyo and Yoon Seok-youl on the PPP side due to the increasing tendency to vote with the heart instead of the brain.[119] A Voice of America article reported that South Korea's lax media editorial standards was responsible for playing a role in allowing unsubstantiated allegations being spread. This environment, added with complications by social media, which has fractured the media landscape and sharpened political divides (political polarization) has led to allowing the loudest and most divisive voices to emerge at the top (an example of such a phenomenon was cited as Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 U.S. election campaign).[120]

By October,[120]

  • Yoon Seok-youl (PPP), in addition to his controversial remarks and being accused of preparing premeditated criminal charges on figures related to the Moon government on behalf of the PPP opposition in 2020 as prosecutor general, was dogged by accusations of relying on shamanism and superstition. At a debate with primary candidates he was forced to deny meeting with an unlicensed religious medical practitioner specialising in anal acupuncture. However he ended up defending the teachings of a mystic who claimed he could travel between dimensions.
  • At a primary debate earlier in 2021, Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party candidate, who was alleged to have a past extramarital affair with a well-known actress who had described seeing a distinctive mole on his genitals, offered to pull down his pants to disprove the allegation. Towards the end of the primary campaign, Lee faced questions of whether he knew or was involved in a real estate corruption scandal that took place during his time as mayor of Seongnam and also speculation on whether he gained certain favors to help those involved profit from the scandal. He was also reported to have a past drink driving record and use of abusive language.[121]
  • As for candidate Hong Jun-pyo, he described himself as a strongman leader comparing himself to US President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping, and was called "Hong Trump" due to his offensive and colourful remarks. He was criticized for writing in a 2005 book that he helped his friend obtain a “pig stimulant” to commit date rape on a woman when he was a 18-year-old college student (this controversy first emerged in his 2017 presidential run). In his 2017 campaign, he said dish-washing in the house was a woman's job.[121]

The three main contenders, Lee for the Democratic Party, and Hong Jun-pyo and Yoon on the PPP side, were reported to have record low favorability ratings according to approval ratings compiled by Gallup Korea. Lee, has an approval rating of only 34%, while Yoon's rating was at just 30% and Hong Joon-pyo, at 28%. In contrast, President Moon Jae-in had a positive favorability rating of 47% while running for election in 2017.[120]

A later poll in the second half of October showed that Lee's rating fell to 32%, while Yoon's rating fell to 28% (after the Chun Doo-hwan controversy) and falling behind Hong who was polled at 31%. The same pollster revealed that minor party candidates fared even worse: Sim Sang-jung from the Justice Party had 24 percent support approval against 62 percent disapproval, and Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People Party, had a 19 percent approval rating with 72 percent disapproval.[121]

However, by January 2022, a Gallup poll showed the favorability ratings of Ahn Cheol-soo, Lee Jae-myung and Sim Sang-jung rose to 38%, 36% and 30% respectively, while Yoon Seok-yeol's rating crashed to 25%.[118]

Recruitment of left-wing feminists to the conservative camps[]

On 21 December 2021, despite conservative People Power Party candidate Yoon Seok-youl being openly anti-feminist, many were quite surprised when two famous left-wing women's rights activists join the conservative camp for president. Yoon's camp most notably recruited Shin Ji-ye, a two time candidate for Seoul Mayor in 2018 under the Green Party and again in 2021 as an Independent. Shin stated that “(Yoon) pledged to resolve violence against women, address the climate crisis and create a Republic of Korea that overcomes (the division of) left and right and moves forward, so I decided to take part.”[122] Many people criticized this move, including:

  • Choi Hyun-sook, a LGBTQ human rights activist, left a comment on Shin Ji-ye's Facebook statement, saying, "She must have been such a human being."
  • Ha Heon-ki, a youth spokesman for the Democratic Party of Korea, said on Facebook, "I ended up going to the place I commented on as Hitler's party."
  • Austin Bashore, long-time friend of Shin and member of the Green Party US tweeted "This was not our plan," "Nobody saw this coming, even her closest friends," and "I met Shin Ji-ye in her apartment two weeks ago for a friendship brunch. As friends do, we talked about politics and she said she did not know to support, so I suggested, as friends do, to support Progressive Party candidate Kim Jae-yeon." Bashore also called her an "opportunist," which began trending on Korean Twitter for 6 hours on 21 December.[123]
  • The Korean Women's Political Network, in which Shin helped found, also made it clear that "CEO Shin's decision was not discussed in advance with the Korean Women's Political Network and was irrelevant to the organizational decision."
  • Kim Min-jae, a spokesperson for the New Wave - Squid Party youth caucus, commented, "It is an opportunistic appearance to seize vested interests and complete chaos to sleep with the enemy in order to seize votes."
  • Justice Party spokesman Kim Chang-in commented, "The change is bizarre."
  • Shin Ji-hye, standing representative of the Basic Income Party, urged candidate Yoon Seok-yeol to reveal the national vision for what it is, saying, "Stop the show."
  • The Green Party left a notice saying it would return the donations Shin Ji-ye received when she ran for the mayor of Seoul in 2018 under the Green Party banner.

On 23 December, two days after the recruitment of Shin Ji-ye, Party leader Lee Jun-seok, who had a year-long conflict with Shin Ji-ye over gender politics, stepped down from all his roles in the presidential campaign, and called for the campaign committee to be overhauled.[124]

On 3 January 2022, after only 14 days, Shin Ji-ye resigned from her position as senior vice-chair of the New Generation Policy Committee, citing conflicts with Lee Jun-seok and plummeting poll numbers for Yoon Seok-youl.[125]

On 19 January 2022, Lee Soo-jung, a criminal psychology professor and feminist, was the last feminist to quit the Yoon campaign. Lee resigned due to Yoon's wife's comments about the #MeToo Movement in which the wife mocked the victims of sexual assault during an 8-hour long phone interview with TV broadcaster MBC‘s investigative news show “Straight."[126]

Infighting in Yoon's campaign team and PPP[]

By January, as a result of infighting within Yoon's campaign team and Yoon's dispute with party leader Lee Jun-seok, Lee Jae-myung reversed Yoon's poll lead and built a healthy poll lead ranging from 6 to 10 points,[124] outside the margin of error. The centrist Ahn Cheol-soo also ate into Yoon's support, gaining support in the range of 10 to 15%.[127][128] A Realmeter survey commissioned by YTN with 1,024 voters between the ages of 18 and 39 conducted showed that Yoon had only 18.4 percent support from respondents, trailing Lee Jae-myung at 33.4 percent and Ahn Cheol-soo at 19.1 percent, marking a plunge in support from the youth demographic in contrast to the lead he had when he was nominated for the PPP in this crucial demographic.[129]

Yoon Seok-yeol then disbanded his election campaign committee, following weeks of internal dispute on 5 January. The campaign had recruited former party leader and veteran campaigner Kim Chong-in to be the campaign manager, before the infighting took place and Yoon pointed out that numerous leadership posts including the chief, subcommittee chiefs and standing chairpersons and internal subcommittees slowed down the decision-making process, which was one of Lee Jun-seok's criticisms of his campaign.

On 3 January, Kim, the election committee's top chief, had made an announcement of an overhaul of the committee without informing Yoon in advance. As a result, Yoon reportedly sacked Kim and reshuffled his campaign team, while "asking [Kim] to continue giving advice”. However, Kim announced he had quit early on 5 January even before Yoon proposed the disbandment, and said he had disagreements with Yoon's campaign staff, leading to the parting of ways. Yoon appointed Rep. Kwon Yeong-se as his new campaign chief.

However, on 6 January, PPP members began demanding the party chairman to quit on grounds that he was damaging the party's chances of winning the election, although the majority of the public blamed Yoon for the chaos enveloping his campaign.[130] By the end of the same day however, Yoon and Lee reached an agreement to put their long-running feud behind them.[131]

Sim Sang-jung suspends campaign activities[]

On 12 January 2022, The Justice Party candidate, Sim Sang-jung suspended campaign activities and went into seclusion amid low ratings, to craft "reform plans".[132] A day later, her campaign chief and election committee members decided to resign and the committee was "virtually disbanded," as key campaign leaders tendered their resignations.[133]

On 19 January 2022, Sim resumed campaign appearances with a visit to the national office of the Green Party. Together, they discussed their combined plans to combat climate change and pushing for an anti-discrimination law.[134] There is currently no form of anti-discrimination legislation in the Republic of Korea.

Notes[]

  1. ^ Technically an illegal and unregistered political party due to the National Security Act's ban on openly socialist or anti-capitalist parties, but their meetings and organizing goes unchallenged by the current government.
  2. ^ Independent, Son Hak-gyu 1.3%.
    Progressive Party, Kim Jae-yeon 0.9%.
    Our Republican Party, Cho Won-jin, 0.7%
    National Revolutionary Party, Kim Gyeong-jae, 0.4%.
  3. ^ Progressive Party, Kim Jae-yeon 0.3%.
    Our Republican Party, Cho Won-jin, 1.4%

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