2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election
538 members of the Electoral College; 270 electoral votes needed to win
	The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census
Incumbent President; Joe Biden; Democratic	; ;

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.^[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are distributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden would be eligible to seek reelection to a second term.^[2]

In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.^[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 census

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.^[4]^[5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.^[6]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.^[7] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,^[8]^[9] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.^[10]^[11]^[9]

Campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of August 2021, has killed over 630,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 520 Americans),^[12] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.^[13]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected for his first term in office in the 2020 election, and has stated he intends to run for reelection for a second term in 2024. He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78, and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if reelected.

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present); 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); United States Senator from Delaware (1973–2009), New Castle County Councillor for District 4 (1971–1973); Democratic Party candidate for president in 2008 & 1988^[14]

President
Joe Biden
from Delaware

Other potential candidates

As of August 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Speculation about Vice President Kamala Harris has been discussed in the context of Biden not seeking re-election,^[15] whereas speculation about Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been discussed in the context of a challenge to either Harris or an incumbent Biden.^[16]

Pete Buttigieg, 19th United States Secretary of Transportation (2021–present); Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020); candidate for president in 2020^[17]^[18]
Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present); United States Senator from California (2017–2021), 32nd Attorney General of California (2011–2017); 27th District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011); candidate for president in 2020^[15]^[19]^[18]^[16]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, United States Representative from New York's 14th District (2019–present)^[16]^[20]

Secretary of Transportation
Pete Buttigieg
from Indiana
Vice President
Kamala Harris
from California
U.S. Representative
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
from New York

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Andrew Cuomo, 56th Governor of New York (2011–2021); 64th Attorney General of New York (2007–2010), 11th United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (1997–2001); Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for Community Planning and Development (1993–1997)^[21]^[22]
Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)^[23]^[24]^[25]
Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont (2007–present); United States Representative from VT-AL (1991–2007); 37th Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989); candidate for president in 2020 and 2016^[26]^[27]
Elizabeth Warren, United States Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present); candidate for president in 2020^[28]^[29]

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time. He was acquitted in his second impeachment in 2021, and is currently eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.^[30]^[31] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the candidate of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas (2013–present); candidate for president in 2016^[32]
Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from FL-01 (2017–present)^[33]
Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021); Republican nominee for president in 2020 and 2016 and Reform Party candidate in 2000^[34]
Candace Owens, conservative author and activist^[35]

U.S. Senator
Ted Cruz
from Texas
U.S. Representative
Matt Gaetz
from Florida
Former President
Donald Trump
from Florida

Potential candidates

As of August 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018); candidate for president in 2016^[36]^[37]
Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present); United States Representative from FL-06 (2013–2018)^[38]^[39]^[40]
Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from GA-14 (2021–present)^[41]^[42]
Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018); Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)^[43]^[44]
Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–present)^[45]^[46]
Rand Paul, United States Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for president in 2016^[47]^[48]
Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present), Governor of Florida (2011–2019)^[49]^[50]
Donald Trump Jr., businessman and eldest son of former President Trump^[51]^[52]

Former Governor
Chris Christie
of New Jersey
Governor
Ron DeSantis
of Florida
U.S. Representative
Marjorie Taylor Greene
from Georgia
Former Ambassador to the U.N.
Nikki Haley
from South Carolina
Governor
Larry Hogan
of Maryland
U.S. Senator
Rand Paul
from Kentucky
U.S. Senator
Rick Scott
from Florida
Businessman
Donald Trump Jr.
from New York

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–present) and co-founder of The Daily Caller^[53]^[54]
Liz Cheney, United States Representative from WY-AL (2017–present) and daughter of former Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney^[55]^[56]
Dan Crenshaw, United States Representative from TX-02 (2019–present)^[57]
Joni Ernst, United States Senator from Iowa (2015–present)^[58]^[59]
Newt Gingrich, United States Speaker of the House (1995–1999); candidate for president in 2012^[60]
Josh Hawley, United States Senator from Missouri (2019–present)^[61]^[62]
Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present); United States Representative from SD-AL (2011–2019)^[63]^[64]
Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present)^[65]^[66]
Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), United States Representative from Kansas's 4th District (2011–2017)^[67]^[68]
Tim Scott, United States Senator from South Carolina (2013–present); United States Representative from SC-01 (2011–2013); Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives from the 117th District (2009–2011), Member of the Charleston County Council from the 3rd District (1995–2009)^[69]^[70]^[71]
Ivanka Trump Kushner, Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–2021); Eldest daughter of Donald Trump^[72]^[73]
Scott Walker, 45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019); 5th Executive of Milwaukee County (2002–2010); member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 14th District (1993–2002); candidate for president in 2016^[74]^[75]

Libertarian Party

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

, comedian and podcaster from New York^[76]

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Kanye West, recording artist, businessman, and fashion designer; independent candidate for president in 2020^[77]^[78]

Rapper
Kanye West
from Wyoming

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

show

Polls with Joe Biden

show

Polls without Joe Biden

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

show

Polls with Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Tucker Carlson	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Josh Hawley	Larry Hogan	Mike Pence	Mike Pompeo	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Tim Scott	Donald Trump	Donald Trump Jr.	Other	Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	467 (LV)	–	–	3%	11%	4%	–	–	8%	1%	3%	3%	0%	54%^[r]	–	7%^[s]	6%
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 30 – August 2, 2021	518 (A)	–	2%	–	13%	4%	0%	–	3%	–	–	1%	1%	58%	–	1%^[t]	17%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	July 6–8, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	2%	19%	3%	0%	1%	8%	0%	3%	1%	1%	47%^[r]	-	2%^[u]	13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	July 6–8, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	–	31%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	58%^[r]	–	–	11%
John Bolton Super PAC	July 8, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	–	5%	13%	5%	0%	–	6%	–	–	3%	0%	46%	–	22%	–
Echelon Insights [1]	June 18–22, 2021	386 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	59%^[r]	–	35%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	444 (LV)	–	–	4%	9%	3%	–	–	8%	1%	3%	1%	1%	55%^[r]	–	8%^[v]	7%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 24–26, 2021	378 (A)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	65%	–	19%^[w]	16%
Quinnipiac	May 18–24, 2021	~290 (A)^[x]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	66%	–	30%^[y]	4%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	444 (LV)	–	1%	3%	8%	5%	–	–	10%	1%	2%	0%	1%	57%^[r]	–	7%^[z]	7%
Echelon Insights [2]	May 14–17, 2021	479 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	63%^[r]	–	31%	6%
Morning Consult/Politico	May 14–17, 2021	782 (RV)	± 2%	–	4%	8%	4%	0%	0%	13%	1%	4%	1%	2%	48%	7%	9%^[aa]	–
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 11–13, 2021	348 (A)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	68%	–	22%^[ab]	10%
Trafalgar Group	Apr 30 – May 6, 2021	– (LV)^[ac]	–	–^[r]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	62%	–	27%^[ad]	11%^[ae]
Echelon Insights [3]	Apr 16–23, 2021	440 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	59%^[r]	–	35%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	Apr 8–13, 2021	441 (LV)	–	1%	3%	7%	2%	–	–	10%	1%	3%	1%	1%	55%^[r]	–	8%^[af]	9%
PEM Management Corporation	Apr 3–7, 2021	494 (LV)	–	–	7%	9%	9%	–	–	6%	–	–	3%	–	44%	–	1%^[ag]	–
Echelon Insights	March 15–21, 2021	1,008 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	60%^[r]	–	30%	10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill [4]	Feb 20 – March 2, 2021	1,264 (LV)	± 2.7%	–	3%	7%	6%	1%	1%	9%	1%	5%	2%	0%	51%^[r]	-	3%^[ah]	12%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill [4]	Feb 20 – March 2, 2021	1,264 (LV)	± 2.7%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	57%^[ai]	–	16%^[aj]	27%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 24–28, 2021	448 (LV)	–	1%	5%	4%	3%	–	–	8%	–	3%	1%	–	54%^[r]	–	9%^[ak]	10%
Harvard-Harris	Feb 23–25, 2021	546 (RV)	–	–	5%	–	7%	2%	–	18%	–	–	–	2%	52%^[r]	–	13%^[al]	–
Echelon Insights	Feb 12–18, 2021	430 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	55%^[r]	–	32%	14%
Morning Consult/Politico	Feb 14–15, 2021	645 (RV)	± 4%	–	4%	–	6%	1%	1%	12%	2%	4%	2%	1%	54%	6%	10%^[am]	–
Echelon Insights	Jan 20–26, 2021	– (RV)^[an]	–	–	–	–	–	–	��	–	–	–	–	–	48%^[r]	–	40%	11%
Léger	Jan 15–17, 2021	1,007 (A)^[ao]	± 3.09%	–	6%	2%	7%	1%	6%	13%	2%	19%	3%	3%	29%^[r]	2%	6%^[ap]	–
Ipsos/Axios	Jan 11–13, 2021	334 (A)	± 5.8%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	57%	–	41%	1%^[aq]
Morning Consult/Politico	Jan 8–11, 2021	702 (RV)	–	–	7%	–	6%	1%	0%	18%	1%	5%	2%	1%	40%	6%	15%^[ar]	–
McLaughlin & Associates	Dec 9–13, 2020	442 (LV)	–	3%	5%	1%	3%	–	–	11%	1%	4%	1%	1%	56%	–	5%^[as]	10%
Fox News	Dec 6–9, 2020	~ 413 (RV)	± 4.5%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	71%	–	21%^[at]	8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax	Nov 21–23, 2020	442 (LV)	± 3.1%	1%	4%	2%	4%	–	–	9%	1%	4%	2%	1%	53%^[r]	–	6%^[au]	15%
Morning Consult/Politico	Nov 21–23, 2020	765 (RV)	± 2%	–	4%	–	4%	1%	0%	12%	–	4%	2%	1%	53%	8%	11%^[av]	–
HarrisX/The Hill	Nov 17–19, 2020	599 (RV)	± 2.26%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	75%	–	25%	–
Seven Letter Insight	Nov 10–19, 2020	~555 (V)^[aw]	± 2.5%	2%	6%	–	7%	1%	–	19%	–	–	4%	2%	35%	11%	4%^[ax]	–
Léger	Nov 13–15, 2020	304 (A)^[ay]	± 3.09%	4%	7%	–	4%	–	–	22%	2%	8%	5%	–	45%^[r]	–	5%^[az]	–
YouGov/Washington Examiner	October 30, 2020	– (RV)^[ba]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	38%	–	43%^[bb]	–

show

Polls without Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Tucker Carlson	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Josh Hawley	Larry Hogan	Mike Pence	Mike Pompeo	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Tim Scott	Donald Trump Jr.	Other	Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	467 (LV)	–	–	9%	23%	4%	–	–	11%	2%	4%	4%	1%	12%	16%^[bc]	14%
Echelon Insights [5]	July 19–23, 2021	421 (RV)	–	1%	9%	32%	4%	1%	0%^[bd]	17%	1%	3%	2%	1%	10%	6%^[be]	13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	July 6–8, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	7%	39%	4%	0%	1%	15%	1%	3%	–	2%	–	4%^[bf]	24%
Echelon Insights [6]	June 18–22, 2021	386 (RV)	–	1%	6%	21%	6%	0%^[bg]	0%^[bh]	14%	0%^[bi]	4%	3%	2%	7%	7%^[bj]	26%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	444 (LV)	–	–	6%	24%	4%	–	–	19%	1%	5%	2%	1%	15%	13%^[bk]	11%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	444 (LV)	–	1%	12%	18%	5%	–	–	19%	2%	3%	1%	2%	13%	13%^[bl]	12%
Echelon Insights [7]	May 14–17, 2021	479 (RV)	–	2%	9%	22%	5%	1%	0%^[bm]	14%	1%	4%	1%	3%	6%	9%^[bn]	19%
Trafalgar Group	Apr 30 – May 6, 2021	– (LV)^[bo]	–	–	15%	35%	6%	1%	–	10%	–	10%	–	–	–	21%^[bp]	–
Echelon Insights [8]	Apr 16–23, 2021	440 (RV)	–	2%	8%	20%	6%	1%	0%^[bq]	16%	1%	4%	2%	0%^[br]	9%	3%^[bs]	28%
McLaughlin & Associates	Apr 8–13, 2021	441 (LV)	–	3%	10%	14%	3%	–	–	19%	2%	3%	3%	1%	15%	13%^[bt]	14%
Echelon Insights	March 15–21, 2021	1,008 (RV)	–	4%	5%	17%	4%	–	–	16%	4%	3%	2%	–	3%	7%^[bu]	35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill [9]	Feb 20 – March 2, 2021	1,264 (LV)	± 2.7%	–	13%	17%	8%	2%	1%	19%	4%	5%	4%	1%	–	7%^[bv]	20%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 24–28, 2021	448 (LV)	–	1%	9%	9%	5%	–	–	15%	–	6%	2%	–	21%	16%^[bw]	17%
RMG Research/Just the News	Feb 25–27, 2021	363 (RV)	–	8%	18%	21%	10%	2%	–	–	9%	–	–	–	–	33%^[bx]	–
Harvard-Harris	Feb 23–25, 2021	546 (RV)	–	–	16%	–	10%	6%	–	41%	–	–	–	7%	–	19%^[by]	–
Echelon Insights	Feb 12–18, 2021	430 (RV)	–	1%	10%	8%	6%	≤1%	1%	21%	1%	4%	≤1%	≤1%	8%	12%^[bz]	26%
Echelon Insights	Jan 20–26, 2021	– (RV)^[ca]	–	2%	8%	2%	9%	0%	0%	21%	1%	3%	2%	1%	10%	10%^[cb]	30%
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger	Jan 15–17, 2021	1,007 (A)^[cc]	± 3.09%	–	9%	3%	8%	2%	7%	22%	3%	20%	4%	3%	11%	8%^[cd]	–
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax	Nov 21–23, 2020	442 (LV)	± 3.1%	1%	7%	2%	6%	–	–	20%	1%	5%	3%	2%	20%	13%^[ce]	22%
Léger	Nov 13–15, 2020	304 (A)^[cf]	± 3.1%	6%	14%	–	6%	–	–	44%	3%	11%	6%	–	–	7%^[cg]	–
	November 3, 2020	2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates	Nov 2–3, 2020	449 (LV)	–	2%	5%	2%	8%	–	–	30%	–	5%	2%	1%	20%	5%^[ch]	21%
Echelon Insights	Aug 14–18, 2020	423 (LV)	–	2%	4%	–	7%	0%	1%	26%	–	–	5%	1%	12%	11%^[ci]	29%
Léger	Aug 4–7, 2020	309 (LV)	± 2.8%	7%	8%	–	11%	–	–	31%	3%	9%	5%	–	17%	9%^[cj]	–

Statewide polling

Georgia primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Chris Christie	Ted Cruz	Nikki Haley	Mike Pence	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Donald Trump	Other	Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage	March 7–9, 2021	– (LV)^[ck]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	70%	18%^[cl]	12%
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR	December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021	209 (LV)	± 7%	1%	5%	3%	–	2%	3%	73%^[r]	2%	–
University of Nevada/BUSR	December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021	209 (LV)	± 7%	1%	15%	8%	36%	6%	3%	–^[cm]	7%	24%

Iowa caucuses

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Kristi Noem	Mike Pence	Mike Pompeo	Mitt Romney	Donald Trump	Other	Undecided
Victory Insights	Released March 14, 2021	– (LV)^[cn]	–	4%	4%	6%	2%	8%	2%	5%	61%^[r]	5%	3%
Victory Insights	Released March 14, 2021	– (LV)^[cn]	–	16%	20%	10%	6%	19%	6%	5%	–^[cm]	7%	6%

Maine primary

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Nikki Haley	Mike Pence	Marco Rubio	Ivanka Trump	Donald Trump Jr.	Other	Undecided
	January 3, 2023	Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
	November 3, 2020	2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote	Jun 30 – July 6, 2020	604 (LV)	± 4.1%	12%	12%	30%	6%	7%	11%	–	21%

North Carolina primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Nikki Haley	Mike Pence	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Donald Trump	Other	Undecided
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR	Nov 30 – December 2, 2020	221 (RV)	± 7%	3%	6%	–	3%	2%	76%^[r]	5%	6%
University of Nevada/BUSR	Nov 30 – December 2, 2020	221 (RV)	± 7%	9%	9%	48%	9%	3%	–^[cm]	4%	18%

South Carolina primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump	Other	Undecided
Trafalgar (R)	Mar 25–29, 2021	1,014 (LV)	± 2.99%	64%	11%^[co]	25%^[cp]

General election polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided	Lead
Rasmussen Reports	August 16–17, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	20%	6%
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 30 – August 2, 2021	1,552 (A)	–	47%	37%	16%	10%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac	July 8, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	43%	11%	3%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 22–24, 2021	1,592 (A)	–	47%	35%	18%	12%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 24–26, 2021	1,588 (A)	–	46%	36%	18%	10%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 11–13, 2021	1,561 (A)	–	48%	36%	16%	12%
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,106 (A)	–	45%	28%	27%	17%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac	Apr 3–7, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	42%	12%	4%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Undecided	Lead
Echelon Insights	Apr 16–23, 2021	1,043 (RV)	–	45%	28%	27%	17%
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,105 (A)	–	41%	25%	34%	16%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Undecided	Lead
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,107 (A)	–	44%	19%	37%	25%

Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ted Cruz Republican	Undecided	Lead
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,105 (A)	–	46%	24%	30%	22%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided	Lead
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	49%	5%	3%
Echelon Insights	June 18–22, 2021	1,001 (RV)	–	47%	40%	13%	7%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%	4%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Undecided	Lead
Echelon Insights	June 18–22, 2021	1,001 (RV)	–	45%	36%	19%	9%

Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Undecided	Lead
Echelon Insights	Apr 16–23, 2021	1,043 (RV)	–	43%	31%	26%	12%

Timeline

Notes

^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
^ "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
^ "Someone else" with 11%
^ John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
^ Bernie Sanders with 10%; Elizabeth Warren and Tim Kaine with 6%; Sherrod Brown with 2%
^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
^ Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
^ "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v Standard VI response
^ John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
^ Kristi Noem with 1%
^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[79]
^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
^ Listed as "Skipped"
^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
^ Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ No voters
^ "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
^ No voters
^ No voters
^ No voters
^ "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ No voters
^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
^ "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
^ No voters
^ No voters
^ Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
^ Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
^ Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
^ "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
^ "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
^ Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
^ Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[79]
^ Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
^ Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
^ John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
^ Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%
^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c If Donald Trump did not run
^ Not yet released
^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%

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^ Jump up to: ^a ^b "Leger's Weekly Survey" (PDF).

[key-79] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[80] Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters

[81] "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%

[82] "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%

[83] "Someone else" with 11%

[84] John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%

[85] Bernie Sanders with 10%; Elizabeth Warren and Tim Kaine with 6%; Sherrod Brown with 2%

[86] John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%

[87] Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%

[88] Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters

[89] "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%

[90] Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%

[91] John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%

[92] John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%

[93] Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%

[94] John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%

[95] Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%

[standardvi-96] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v Standard VI response

[97] John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%

[98] Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%

[99] Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%

[100] Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%

[101] "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%

[102] 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults

[103] "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%

[104] Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%

[105] Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[106] "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%

[107] Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters

[108] "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%

[109] "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%

[110] John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%

[111] Kristi Noem with 1%

[112] Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%

[113] On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran

[114] "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%

[115] Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[116] "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%

[117] Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[118] GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters

[120] Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[79]

[121] Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%

[122] Listed as "Skipped"

[123] Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%

[124] John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[125] "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%

[126] John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[127] Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%

[128] 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters

[129] Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%

[130] Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults

[131] John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%

[132] Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters

[133] Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%

[134] Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[135] No voters

[136] "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%

[137] Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%

[138] No voters

[139] No voters

[140] No voters

[141] "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%

[142] Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[143] Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[144] No voters

[145] Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters

[146] Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters

[147] "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%

[148] No voters

[149] No voters

[150] Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters

[151] Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%

[152] Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less

[153] Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%

[154] Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%

[155] "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%

[156] "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%

[157] Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less

[158] GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters

[159] Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%

[160] Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[79]

[161] Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%

[162] Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%

[163] Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults

[164] Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%

[165] John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[166] "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%

[167] Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%

[168] Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters

[169] "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%

[iftrumpdeclined-170] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c If Donald Trump did not run

[171] Not yet released

[172] "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%

[173] "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%

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[leger360.com-119] Jump up to: ^a ^b "Leger's Weekly Survey" (PDF).

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show v t (2023 ←) 2024 United States elections ()
U.S. President	2024 United States presidential election
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2024 United States presidential election

Background

Procedure

Effects of the 2020 census

Campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic

Candidates

Democratic Party

Publicly expressed interest

Other potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

Republican Party

Publicly expressed interest

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

Libertarian Party

Publicly expressed interest

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Publicly expressed interest

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

Statewide polling

Georgia primary

Iowa caucuses

Maine primary

Maine's 2nd congressional district

North Carolina primary

South Carolina primary

General election polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence

Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis

Timeline

See also

Notes

References