Economy of Zambia

Economy of Zambia

Lusaka is the capital and largest financial district in Zambia
Currency	Zambian kwacha (ZMW)
Fiscal year	calendar year
Trade organisations	AU, AfCFTA (signed), WTO, SADC, COMESA
Country group	Developing/Emerging[1] Lower-middle income economy[2]
Statistics
Population	17,351,822 (2018)[3]
GDP	$18.95 billion (nominal, 2021 est.)[4] $75.857 billion (PPP, 2019 est.)[5]
GDP growth	4.0% (2018) 1.5% (2019e) −3.5% (2020e) 2.3% (2021e)[5]
GDP per capita	$974 (nominal, 2021 est.)[4] $3.320 (PPP, 2021 est.)[4]
GDP by sector	agriculture: 8.6% industry: 31.3% services: 60% (2015 est.)[6]
Inflation (CPI)	17.8% (2021 est.)[4]
Population below poverty line	60.5% (2010)
Human Development Index	0.591 medium (2018)[7] (143rd) 0.394 low IHDI (2018)[8]
Labour force	6.906 million(2015)
Labour force by occupation	agriculture: 85%, industry: 7%, services: 9% (2004)
Unemployment	7.2% (2018)[9]
Main industries	copper mining and processing, construction, foodstuffs, beverages, chemicals, textiles, fertilizer, horticulture
Ease-of-doing-business rank	85th (easy, 2020)[10]
External
Exports	$6.316 billion (2015 est)
Export goods	copper/cobalt 64%, cobalt, electricity; tobacco, flowers, cotton
Main export partners	China(-) 25.5%  DR Congo(+) 13%  South Africa(+) 6.4%  South Korea(+) 4.9%  India(+) 4.3% (2015)[11]
Imports	$6.798 billion (2015 est)
Import goods	machinery, transportation equipment, petroleum products, electricity, fertilizer; foodstuffs, clothing
Main import partners	South Africa(+) 34.5%  DR Congo(+) 18.2%  Kenya(+) 9.7%  China(-) 7.2%  India(+) 4.4% (2015)[12]
Public finances
Public debt	$21.73 billion (2019)
Revenues	$3.643 billion (2015)
Expenses	$5.189 billion (2015)
Economic aid	recipient: $640.6 million (2002)
Credit rating	Standard & Poor's:[13] B+ (Domestic) B+ (Foreign) B+ (T&C Assessment)
Main data source: CIA World Fact Book All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

Zambian exports in 2006

Zambia is a developing country and has achieved middle-income status in 2011. Through the first decade of the 21st century, the economy of Zambia was one of the fastest growing economies in Africa and its capital, Lusaka the fastest growing city in the Southern African Development Community (SADC).^[14] Zambia's economic performance has stalled in recent years due to declining copper prices, significant fiscal deficits, and energy shortages.^[15][16]

Zambia remains one of the least developed countries in Africa, with 58% of the population living on less than $1.90 a day and an average life expectancy of 62 years.^[17] The government has succeeded in reducing the cost of doing business, but other important indicators of the business environment, such as restrictions on trade and government and judicial integrity have deteriorated.^[18]

Zambia itself is one of Sub-Saharan Africa's most highly urbanized countries. About one-half of the country's 16 million people are concentrated in a few urban zones strung along the major transportation corridors, while rural areas are under-populated. Unemployment and underemployment are serious problems. National GDP has actually doubled since independence. But due in large part to high birth rates per capita, annual incomes are currently at about two-thirds of their levels at independence. As of 2019, Zambia's GDP per capita (current international dollars) stands at $1,305.00 [2].

For the first time since 1989, in 2007 Zambia's economic growth reached the 6%-7% mark needed to reduce poverty significantly. Copper output has increased steadily since 2004, due to higher copper prices and the opening of new mines. The maize harvest was again good in 2005, helping boost GDP and agricultural exports. Cooperation continues with international bodies on programs to reduce poverty, including a new lending arrangement with the IMF in the second quarter of 2004. A tighter monetary policy will help cut inflation, but Zambia still has a serious problem with high public debt.^[17]

History[]

Economic policies soon after independence (1964 - 1967)[]

The British South Africa Company (BSAC, originally set up by the British imperialist Cecil Rhodes) retained commercial assets and mineral rights that it acquired from a concession signed with the Litunga of Barotseland in 1892 (the ). Only by threatening to expropriate the BSAC, on the eve of independence, did the incoming Zambian government manage to get the BSAC to relinquish the mineral rights. The Federation's government assigned roles to each of the three territories: Southern Rhodesia was assigned the responsibility of providing managerial and administrative skills; Northern Rhodesia provided copper revenues; and Nyasaland provided the Black labour.

After independence, Zambia instituted a program of national development plans, under the direction of a National Commission for Development Planning: the Transitional Development Plan (1964–66) was followed by the First National Development Plan (1966–71). These two plans, which provided for major investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, were largely implemented and were generally successful. This was not true for subsequent plans

The Mulungushi Economic Reforms (1968)[]

A major switch in the structure of Zambia's economy came with the Mulungushi Reforms of April 1968: the government declared its intention to acquire equity holdings (usually 51% or more) in a number of key foreign-owned firms, to be controlled by a parastatal conglomerate named the Industrial Development Corporation (INDECO).^[19] By January 1970, Zambia had acquired majority holding in the Zambian operations of the two major foreign mining corporations, the Anglo American Corporation and the Rhodesia Selection Trust (RST); the two became the Nchanga Consolidated Copper Mines (NCCM) and Roan Consolidated Mines (RCM), respectively. The Zambian government then created a new parastatal body, the Mining Development Corporation (MINDECO). The Finance and Development Corporation (FINDECO) allowed the Zambian government to gain control of insurance companies and building societies. However, foreign-owned banks (such as Barclays, Standard Chartered and Grindlays) successfully resisted takeover. In 1971, INDECO, MINDECO, and FINDECO were brought together under an omnibus parastatal, the Zambia Industrial and Mining Corporation (ZIMCO), to create one of the largest companies in sub-Saharan Africa, with the country's president, Kenneth Kaunda as chairman of the board. The management contracts under which day-to-day operations of the mines had been carried out by Anglo American and RST were ended in 1973. In 1982 NCCM and RCM were merged into the giant Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Ltd (ZCCM).

In 1973 a massive increase in the price of oil was followed by a slump in copper prices in 1975, resulting in a diminution of export earnings. In 1973 the price of copper accounted for 95% of all export earnings; this halved in value on the world market in 1975. By 1976 Zambia had a balance-of-payments crisis, and rapidly became massively indebted to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Third National Development Plan (1978–83) had to be abandoned as crisis management replaced long-term planning.

By the mid-1980s Zambia was one of the most indebted nations in the world, relative to its gross domestic product (GDP). The IMF was insisting that the Zambian government should introduce programs aimed at stabilizing the economy and restructuring it to reduce dependence on copper. The proposed measures included: the ending of price controls; devaluation of the kwacha (Zambia's currency); cut-backs in government expenditure; cancellation of subsidies on food and fertilizer; and increased prices for farm produce. Kaunda's removal of food subsidies caused massive increases in the prices of basic foodstuffs; the country's urbanized population rioted in protest. In desperation, Kaunda broke with the IMF in May 1987 and introduced a New Economic Recovery Programme in 1988. However, this did not help him and he eventually moved toward a new understanding with the IMF in 1989. In 1990 Kaunda was forced to make a major policy volteface: he announced the intention to partially privatize the parastatals. Time, however, was running out for him. Like many African independence leaders Kaunda tried to hang on to power but unlike many he called multiparty elections and lost them (to the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD))and abided by the results. Kaunda left office with the inauguration of MMD leader Frederick Chiluba as president on 2 November 1991.

Chiluba's economic reforms[]

Zambia's Economic System of Government is Unitary because of that the Frederick Chiluba government (1991–2001), which came to power after democratic multi-party elections in November 1991, was committed to extensive economic reform.^{[20][page needed]}

Zambia's economic transformation into a free market system began toward the end of 1991 following a change of government. To tackle a serious economic crisis, the government agreed to introduce substantial economic reforms to secure much-needed loans from the World Bank and IMF.^[18]

One of the greatest challenges was the privatization of the country's copper mines, Zambia's prime export earner. The government privatised many state industries, and maintained positive real interest rates. Exchange controls were eliminated and free market principles endorsed. It remains to be seen whether the Mwanawasa government will follow a similar path of implementing economic reform and undertaking further privatization. Zambia has yet to address issues such as reducing the size of the public sector, which still represents 44% of total formal employment, and improving Zambia's social sector delivery systems.

After the government privatized the giant parastatal mining company Zambian Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM), donors resumed balance-of-payment support. The final transfer of ZCCM's assets occurred on March 31, 2000. Although balance-of-payment payments are not the answer to Zambia's long-term debt problems, it will in the short term provide the government some breathing room to implement further economic reforms. The government has, however, spent much of its foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the exchange rate mechanism. To continue to do so, however, would jeopardize Zambia's debt relief. Zambia qualified for HIPC debt relief in 2000, contingent upon the country meeting certain performance criteria, and this should offer a long-term solution to Zambia's debt situation. In January 2003, the Zambian Government informed the International Monetary Fund and World Bank that it wished to renegotiate some of the agreed performance criteria calling for privatization of the Zambia National Commercial Bank and the national telephone and electricity utilities.

Sectors[]

Mining[]

In 2019, the country was the world's 7th largest producer of copper.^[21]

The Zambian economy has historically been based on the copper-mining industry. The industrialization of the copper industry is owed partly to Frederick Russell Burnham, the famous American scout who worked for Cecil Rhodes.^[22] By 1998, however, output of copper had fallen to a low of 228,000 tonnes, continuing a 30-year decline in output due to lack of investment, and until recently, low copper prices and uncertainty over privatization. In 2001, the first full year of a privatized industry, Zambia recorded its first year of increased productivity since 1973. The future of the copper industry in Zambia was thrown into doubt in January 2002, when investors in Zambia's largest copper mine announced their intention to withdraw their investment. However, surging copper prices from 2004 to the present day rapidly rekindled international interest in Zambia's copper sector with a new buyer found for KCCM and massive investments in expanding capacity launched. China has become a major investor in the Zambian copper industry, and in February 2007, the two countries announced the creation of a Chinese-Zambian economic partnership zone around the Chambishi copper mine.^[23][24]

Today copper mining is central to the economic prospects for Zambia and covers 85% of all the country's exports, but concerns remain that the economy is not diversified enough to cope with a collapse in international copper prices.

In January 2013, the Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA) approved 27 mining and exploration licences, with more rumoured to be confirmed.^[25]

Agriculture[]

The agriculture sector represented 20% GDP in 2000. Agriculture accounted for 85% of total employment (formal and informal) for 2000. Maize (corn) is the principal cash crop as well as the staple food. Other important crops include soybean, cotton, sugar, sunflower seeds, wheat, sorghum, pearl millet, cassava, tobacco and various vegetable and fruit crops. Floriculture is a growth sector, and agricultural non-traditional exports now rival the mining industry in foreign exchange receipts. Zambia has the potential for significantly increasing its agricultural output; currently, less than 20% of its arable land is cultivated. In the past, the agriculture sector suffered from low producer prices, difficulties in availability and distribution of credit and inputs, and the shortage of foreign exchange.

In 2019 Zambia produced:^{[26][verification needed]}

• 4.9 million tons of sugarcane;
• 4 million tons of cassava (18th largest producer in the world);
• 2 million tons of maize;
• 281 thousand tons of soy;
• 153 thousand tons of tobacco (6th largest producer in the world);
• 151 thousand tons of wheat;
• 130 thousand tons of peanut;
• 109 thousand tons of sweet potato;
• 72 thousand tons of cotton;
• 6,900 tons of coffee;

In addition to other productions of other agricultural products.^[26]

Livestock[]

In livestock, Zambia produced, in 2019: 191 thousand tons of beef; 50 thousand tons of chicken meat; 34 thousand tons of pork; 453 million liters of cow's milk, among others.^[27]

Inflation[]

GDP per capita (current), compared to neighbouring countries (world average = 100)

Lack of balance-of-payment support meant the Zambian government did not have resources for capital investment and periodically had to issue bonds or otherwise expand the money supply to try to meet its spending and debt obligations. The government continued these activities even after balance-of-payment support resumed. This has kept interest rates at levels that are too high for local business, fuelled inflation, burdened the budget with domestic debt payments, while still falling short of meeting the public payroll and other needs, such as infrastructure rehabilitation. The government was forced to draw down foreign exchange reserves sharply in 1998 to meet foreign debt obligations, putting further pressure on the kwacha and inflation. Inflation held at 32% in 2000; consequently, the kwacha lost the same value against the dollar over the same period. In mid- to late 2001, Zambia's fiscal management became more conservative. As a result, 2001 year-end inflation was below 20%, its best result in decades. In 2002 inflation rose to 26.7%. However, in 2007 inflation hit 8%, the first time in 30 years that Zambia had seen single digit inflation.

On January 27, 2011, it was reported by the Central Statistical Office that inflation rose to 9%.^[28] in 2012

Between April 2019 and April 2020 Zambia' s Annual inflation rate rose to 15.7% from 14% in March 2020. The rise of prices in food and other non- food items led to the increase in the Annual inflation rate.^[29]

However, it is significant that inflation often peaks in election years, hitting a recent high of 17.9% in 2016. This suggests that a further peak is likely approaching during the 2021 general elections. The value of the kwacha against the dollar has been relatively consistent for the past two years and has yet to return to the recent high of almost 0.2 kwacha to the dollar in 2013. Nonetheless, the real effective exchange rate of the kwacha against a weighted average of foreign currencies improved from 88.5 in 2016 to 96.4 in 2017. The kwacha lost value against the dollar in September 2018 but has remained fairly consistent at 0.08 to the dollar in November to December, though further instability remains likely due to both political and economic uncertainty.^[18]

Growth[]

There are, however, positive macroeconomic signs, rooted in reforms implemented in the early and mid-1990s. Zambia's floating exchange rate and open capital markets have provided useful discipline on the government, while at the same time allowing continued diversification of Zambia's export sector, growth in the tourist industry, and procurement of inputs for growing businesses. Some parts of the Copper Belt have experienced a significant revival as spin-off effects from the massive capital reinvestment are experienced.

Salaula[]

Standard economic theory and empirical data indicates that second-hand clothing import can have positive effects in a country like Zambia (one of the least developed countries in the world). The salaula market reduces the proportion of income that a family has to spend on clothing. It also helps to keep employments like repairs and alterations in business and forces tailors to proceed into more specialize production of styled garments.^[30]

There is a downside to such imports, however; the massive importation of used clothing from the developed world has resulted in a near-total collapse of the Zambian indigenous textile industry. In the face of cheap used clothing, tailors' specialized production may be irrelevant - customers will buy the least expensive clothing available, irrespective of style. Those who might otherwise work at textile mills or clothing factories are left jobless, or else make significantly less money in the salaula resale business.

Data[]

The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1980–2017.^[31]

See also[]

• Bank of Zambia
• Economy of Africa
• Zambia
• FORGE Program
• List of companies of Zambia
• United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
• Category:Companies of Zambia

References[]

External links[]

• Economy of Zambia at Curlie
• Zambia latest trade data on ITC Trade Map
• Barbara Gunnell, New Statesman, May 24, 2004, "A conspiracy of the rich"
• CIA World Factbook Zambia
• MBendi Zambia overview
• UNDP in Zambia official site of the United Nations Development Programme in Zambia
• World Development Movement (2004), "Zambia: Condemned to debt"
• World Bank Summary Trade Statistics Zambia