Harry S. Truman 1948 presidential campaign

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Harry S. Truman for President
Truman-Barkley 1948 Democratic Campaign Logo
Campaign1948 Democratic primaries
1948 United States presidential election
CandidateHarry S. Truman
33rd President of the United States
(1945–1953)
Alben W. Barkley
U.S. Senator from Kentucky
(1927–1949)
AffiliationDemocratic Party
StatusAnnounced: March 8, 1948
Official nominee: July 15, 1948
Won election: November 2, 1948
Inaugurated: January 20, 1949
HeadquartersKansas City, Missouri
Key peopleClark Clifford (Advisor)
Louis A. Johnson (Fundraiser)
SloganPour it on 'em, Harry!
Give Em Hell, Harry!
Theme songI'm just wild about Harry

In 1948, Harry S. Truman and Alben W. Barkley were elected president and vice president of the United States. They defeated Republican presidential nominee Thomas E. Dewey and vice-presidential nominee Earl Warren. Truman, a Democrat and former vice president under Franklin D. Roosevelt, had ascended to the presidency upon Roosevelt's death in 1945. He announced his candidacy for election on March 8, 1948. Unchallenged by any major nominee in the Democratic primaries, he won all of them easily, however, many Democrats like James Roosevelt opposed his candidacy and urged former Chief of Staff of the Army Dwight D. Eisenhower to run instead.

Truman wanted Supreme Court Associate Justice William O. Douglas to be his running mate, however, Douglas declined, claiming a lack of political experience. It was rumored the real reason for Douglas's refusal was that he did not want to be a "number two man to a number two man". The 1948 Democratic National Convention convened at the Philadelphia Convention Hall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from July 12 to July 15. A keynote address delivered by Senator Alben W. Barkley of Kentucky, which energized the delegates, impressed Truman. He selected Barkley as his running mate. When the convention adopted Truman's civil rights plank in a close vote of 651½ to 582½, many southern delegates bolted the convention. Soon after, Strom Thurmond, the governor of South Carolina, led a walkout of a large group of delegates from Mississippi and Alabama. After order was restored, a roll call vote gave Truman a majority of delegates to be the nominee; Barkley was nominated the vice-presidential candidate by acclamation.

While campaigning, Truman focused mostly on blaming the Republican-controlled Congress for not passing his legislation. He called it a "do-nothing Congress". A few days after the convention, the Progressive party nominated Henry A. Wallace, a former democratic vice president, to run against Truman. Governor Thurmond also ran against Truman as a Dixiecrat, campaigning for states' rights. With a split of the Democratic Party, most of the polls and political writers predicted victory for Dewey, giving Truman little chance. In early September, Truman conducted various whistle-stop tours across the nation covering over 21,928 miles (35,290 km) on a train named Ferdinand Magellan. However, of all the speeches he gave during his whistle-stop tour, only about 70 were broadcast on the radio even locally, while 20 were heard nationally.

During the final days of the campaign, his team released a film titled The Truman Story using existing newsreel footage of his whistle-stop tour. Although he received some notable endorsements, including that of Screen Actors Guild president Ronald Reagan, most of the broadcasting companies were sure of Dewey's victory. Initially leading in the popular vote, Truman defeated Dewey in an upset victory receiving 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 189 and Thurmond's 39. Before the results were released, an early edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune had printed the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN", boldly anticipating Dewey's victory. Truman's photograph, taken on November 4, showing him holding the Chicago Daily Tribune with the erroneous headline is considered the "greatest photograph ever made of a politician celebrating victory". He was inaugurated on January 20, 1949.

Background[]

Photographic portrait of Harry S. Truman taken in 1945
Portrait of Harry S. Truman taken in 1945.

Harry S. Truman was born in Lamar, Missouri, in 1884.[1] He served as Presiding Judge of Jackson County, Missouri, and was elected as a senator from Missouri in 1934. As a senator, he served as the head of the Senate Special Committee to Investigate the National Defense Program, known as the Truman Committee.[2] In 1944, President Franklin D. Roosevelt replaced Vice President Henry A. Wallace on his ticket with Truman.[3] Though he showed little interest in being the vice president, the Democratic National Convention nominated him as the vice-presidential nominee; the Roosevelt-Truman ticket won the 1944 presidential election, defeating the Republican Dewey-Bricker ticket.[4] Truman was sworn in as vice president on January 20, 1945. He had been vice president for 82 days when President Roosevelt died on April 12, 1945, making Truman the 33rd president of the United States.[5] Explaining the burden of the presidency, he said – "I felt like the moon, the stars, and all the planets had fallen on me."[6]

Truman asked Roosevelt's cabinet members to remain in their positions, telling them he was open to their advice. He emphasized a central principle of his administration: he would be the one making the decisions, and they were to support him.[7] During World War II, with the invasion of Japan imminent, he approved the schedule for dropping two atomic bombs to avoid a costly invasion of the Japanese mainland. Military estimates for the invasion of Japan were that it could take a year and result in 250,000 to 500,000 U.S. casualties. The U.S. bombed Hiroshima on August 6, and Nagasaki three days later, leaving 105,000 dead.[8] The Soviet Union declared war on Japan on August 9 and invaded Manchuria. Japan agreed to surrender the following day.[9] Truman said attacking Japan with atomic bombs saved many lives on both sides. With the end of World War II, Truman implemented the Marshall Plan. Apart from primaries and campaigning in 1948, Truman dealt with the Berlin Blockade, which is considered the first major diplomatic crisis of the Cold War.[10] During his presidency, Truman's approval ratings had dropped significantly from 80% in early 1945 to 30% in early 1947. The 1946 mid-term election alarmed Truman when Republicans won control of both the houses of Congress for the first time since the 1920s.[11] In 1947, Truman told his Secretary of Defense James Forrestal that, except for the reward of service, he had found little satisfaction in being President.[12]

Gaining the nomination[]

Preparing for a run[]

Truman's presidential primary performance map
Truman's presidential primary performance
  No primaries conducted
  Unpledged delegate
  91% and above
  81% - 90%
  51% - 80%

Truman had decided initially not to run, however in early 1948, he agreed to run for president asserting he wanted to continue "contributing to the welfare of the country".[13] His advisor, Clark Clifford, later said that the greatest ambition Truman had was to be elected in his own right.[12] Because of his declining popularity, he considered choosing General Dwight D. Eisenhower as his running mate, but Eisenhower declined.[12] His candidacy faced opposition within the Democratic Party by the Progressive movement led by former Vice-President Henry Wallace, and the States' Rights movement led by South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond.[14] In November 1947, Democratic political strategist James H. Rowe wrote a memo titled "The Politics of 1948", highlighting the challenges and the road map for Truman's campaign.[15] Clark Clifford edited and presented the forty-three page confidential memo to the president,[16] which stated "the Democratic Party is an unhappy alliance of Southern conservatives, Western progressives, and Big City labor".[15] Rowe accurately predicted Dewey would win the Republican nomination and also warned of the potential threat from Southern Democrats and Henry Wallace.[15] The Rowe-Clifford memo advised Truman to project himself strongly as a liberal and focus his campaign primarily on urban blacks, labor, and farmers—who made up the core of the New Deal coalition.[17] Although Truman did not trust Rowe,[15] he endorsed the strategy enthusiastically.[17]

In his 1948 State of the Union address, Truman emphasized civil rights and said, "Our first goal is to secure fully the essential human rights of our citizens."[13] On March 8, 1948, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee and senator from Rhode Island Howard McGrath officially declared Truman's candidacy on his behalf.[18] He said, "The president has authorized me to say, that if nominated by the Democratic National Convention, he will accept and run." [18] The presidential primary contests began the next day with the New Hampshire primary.[19] Truman won the support of unpledged New Hampshire delegates unopposed. He faced little opposition in primary contests, as he was the sole major contender. He won almost all the contests by comfortable margins, receiving almost 64% of the overall vote.[19]A Gallup Poll indicated no matter how Truman might campaign, he would lose in November to any of four possible Republican nominees including Dewey, Vandenberg, former Governor Harold E. Stassen of Minnesota and General Douglas MacArthur.

Historian and author Andrew Busch described the political scenario as:

"Americans in 1948 had to render judgment on three major policy innovations. It was the first presidential election since depression, war, and the presence of Franklin D. Roosevelt in which the nation could take stock of the New Deal direction of domestic policy. It was also the first election after the establishment of containment as the foreign policy of the United States and the first since Truman had made civil rights an important part of the federal policy agenda...
The presidential nominating system in 1948 was substantially different from the reformed system to which we are accustomed, and the differences were important. Primary elections influenced the nomination but did not control it; it was possible to seriously consider a genuine last-minute draft of a candidate; and the national conventions really mattered."[20]

Early developments[]

In early June, the University of California invited Truman to accept an honorary doctorate. Truman converted his California trip to a whistle-stop train tour through eighteen strategic states campaigning from June 3.[21] The president’s discretionary travel fund covered the costs because of a lack of donations to the Democratic National Committee.[22][23] Although Truman referred to it as a "non-political trip", he delivered a speech at every stop—some 76 speeches.[21] He focused on the eightieth Congress in his speeches, referring to it as "the worst congress".[21] As his tour progressed, the crowds grew significantly, from 1,000 people in Crestline, Ohio, to 100,000 people in Chicago, Illinois.[24] In Omaha, Truman's address at the Ak-Sar-Ben auditorium was an embarrassment.[25] The auditorium had a capacity of 10,000 seats, but fewer than 2,000 people attended. Organizes failed to publicize that the auditorium was open to the public and not just veterans of the 35th Division.[26] Newspapers printed images of the nearly vacant auditorium, and columnists interpreted this as a further sign of Truman’s dwindling popularity.[27]

Photograph of Justice William O Douglas, Truman's initial choice for his running mate.
Justice William O. Douglas was Truman's initial choice for his running mate.

Although Truman ran mostly unopposed in the primaries, the "Eisenhower craze" was in full swing among some Democrats a few weeks before the convention.[28] Franklin D. Roosevelt's son, James Roosevelt, campaigned for Eisenhower to contest the nomination and take Truman's place on the ticket.[29] Despite several refusals, Eisenhower was still being pursued by various political leaders.[28] Several polling agencies polls suggested Eisenhower was likely to defeat Dewey if he ran in place of Truman. Reacting to this at a news conference on July 1, 1948, Truman said he would not withdraw his candidacy even though no one had seriously challenged him in a single Democratic primary.[28] Still, Roosevelt made no secret of his intention to prevent Truman from becoming the nominee. Truman once told James Roosevelt that, "If your father knew what you were doing to me, he would turn over in his grave." With the convention approaching, Truman still had to decide on a running mate. He wanted one younger than him and strong on liberal issues.[30] His initial choice was Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas.[30][31] Douglas was also the alternative candidate for the "Eisenhower coalition", but he declined, claiming a lack of political experience; he also wanted to remain in the Supreme Court.[31] It was rumored that the real reason for Douglas's refusal was he did not want to be a "number two man to a number two man". A week before the convention, Roosevelt sent telegrams to all 1,592 delegates voting for the party nomination, asking them to arrive in Philadelphia two days early for a special "Draft Eisenhower" caucus attempting to make a strong joint appeal to Eisenhower.[32] Columnist Drew Pearson wrote that, "If the Democrats failed to get Ike [Eisenhower] to run, every seasoned political leader in the Democratic Party is convinced Harry Truman will suffer one of the worst election defeats in history."[33] Humiliated by the draft, Truman called James Roosevelt a "Demo-republican" and "double-dealer".[34] After Eisenhower declined to run yet again, it became clear the Truman would be chosen as the Democratic nominee.

Democratic convention[]

The 1948 Democratic National Convention convened at the Philadelphia Convention Hall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from July 12 to July 15. The crowd was smaller than the Republican Convention held a few weeks earlier.[35] Some delegates carried banners with the slogan "Keep American Human with Truman".[36] Viewing the first televised Democratic National Convention from the White House, Truman heard Senator Alben W. Barkley of Kentucky deliver a keynote address that energized the delegates in the convention hall.[35] After his speech, some delegates broke into a spontaneous demonstration and marched around the hall singing "My Old Kentucky Home" carrying banners inscribed with "Barkley for Vice-President".[37] When Senator Howard McGrath asked Truman his views on the speech, Truman replied, "If Barkley is what the convention wanted for the vice presidency, then Barkley is my choice too."[38] At 71, Barkley was older than Truman, and from Kentucky, neither of which helped to counteract the issue of Truman's age, nor bring a geographical balance to the ticket.[30] But Barkley was immensely popular within the Democratic party, and political experts wrote that his presence on the ticket would help to cement the fractious Democratic coalition.[37] The next day, Truman called Barkley asking him to be his running mate, saying "If I had known you wanted it [the vice presidency], I certainly would have been agreeable."[30] Barkley agreed to be his running mate.

July 14 was scheduled for Truman’s nomination and his acceptance speech. Before his arrival, southern delegates were agitated over civil rights when the convention adopted Truman's civil rights plan, which supported equal opportunity in employment and in the military.[30][39] Although Truman did not intend to alienate the South,[40] many southern delegates from Mississippi were sent with binding instructions to bolt the convention if it endorsed the no "states' rights" plank.[41] Soon after Senator Francis Myers read the civil rights plank, many southern delegates rose in protest.[42] The convention adopted the civil rights plank in a close vote of 651½ to 582½. Hubert Humphrey tried to control the situation with his "The Sunshine of Human Rights" address, saying "we are not rushing on civil rights, we are 172 years late".[43][44] Soon after, Thurmond led a walkout of a large group of delegates from Mississippi and Alabama, yelling "Goodbye Harry".[45] The Washington Post's correspondent Marquis Childs later called it the "liquidation of one of the major parties".[45] Soon after order was restored, a delegate from Georgia, Charles J. Bloch, shouted, "The south is no longer going to be the whipping boy of the Democratic party" and called for the nomination of Senator Richard Russell as an alternative to Truman.[39][41] The remaining delegates then voted for presidential nomination, which formally made Truman the Democratic nominee, with 947½ delegates to Russell's 266.[46][47][48] Although many remaining southern delegates voted for Russell, a split vote in South Carolina gave the victory to Truman.[49] Barkley was nominated as the vice-presidential nominee by acclamation.[46] Truman was expected to deliver his acceptance speech at 10:00 pm, but because of the walkout by some delegates, the convention was behind schedule and he did not give his speech until 2:00 am on July 15.[49] Truman began his speech electrifying the delegates by directly attacking Republicans, and praising Barkley—who was considered the most popular man in the hall.[50] He said:

I accept the nomination. And I want to thank this convention for its unanimous nomination of my good friend and colleague, Senator Barkley of Kentucky. He is a great man, and a great public servant. Senator Barkley and I will win this election and make these Republicans like it – don't you forget that! We will do that because they are wrong and we are right, and I will prove it to you in just a few minutes."[51]

He blamed the Republican-controlled Congress for not passing his legislative measures like the Taft-Ellender-Wagner bill.[52] Although he did not mention his opponent Thomas Dewey, he harshly contrasted the Republican platform with the actions of the eightieth congress.[53] He said that he would call Congress back into session on July 26th (Turnip Day) to pass legislation ensuring civil rights, Social Security, and establishing a national healthcare program. "They [Congress] can do this job in fifteen days if they want to do it", he challenged.[54] The session came to be known as the "Turnip Day Session".[54] Describing his reference of the eightieth congress, Newsweek reported that, "Nothing short of a stroke of magic could infuse the remnants of the party with enthusiasm, but the magic he had; in a speech bristling with marching words, Mr. Truman brought the convention to its highest peak of excitement."[53] American author and historian David Pietrusza later referred to his speech as the "first great political speech of the television era".[55] He wrote:

"It transformed a hopelessly bedraggled campaign into an instantly energized effort capable of ultimate victory in November. It is the first great political speech of the television era, moving politics past the print and even radio age, into the ascendancy of the visual, propelling images as well as words immediately into the homes of millions of Americans."[55]

Campaign[]

"It will be the greatest campaign any President ever made. Win, lose, or draw, people will know where I stand."
— Harry S. Truman[56]

Initial stages[]

Soon after the convention, Truman stated the whole concept of his campaign was to motivate voters and galvanize support for the candidate and the party.[57] Republicans charged Truman with crude politics asserting his call for a special session of Congress was the "act of a desperate man".[58] Rather than directly attacking Dewey, Truman sought to continue blaming the Republican-controlled congress.[57] On July 17, the southern delegates who bolted the Democratic Convention convened and nominated Strom Thurmond as the official States' Rights Democratic Party (Dixiecrat) presidential nominee, with Fielding L. Wright, the governor of Mississippi as their vice presidential nominee.[59] With the split within the Democratic party, many pollsters believed Truman had little chance of winning. The initial issue Truman had to deal with was financing the campaign. The Democratic National Committee's funds were insufficient.[60] Moreover, the Dewey campaign had released a collection of quotes from high-profile Democratic politicians saying that Truman could not win, reducing the number of donors. A meeting was held at the White House on July 22 to form the campaign finance committee. Truman stated he would travel all over the country after Labor Day, and address every stop on the tour to campaign and raise money.[60] Soon after, the Democratic National Committee moved its headquarters from Philadelphia to New York City—the "home of advertising industry".[61] Louis A. Johnson was named the campaign fundraiser and the finance chairman for the Democratic National Committee.[62] With Truman's declining polling numbers, Johnson’s fundraising was crucial for the campaign. William Batt headed a new campaign research unit formed to focus on local issues and trends in the cities where Truman was expected to give speeches.[63] A day before the special session of congress, the Progressive Party formally nominated Wallace as their presidential nominee with Glen H. Taylor, the senator from Idaho as his running mate.[64]

President Truman shakes hands with Governor Dewey at Idlewild Airport
President Truman (left) with Governor Dewey (right) at dedication of the Idlewild Airport; meeting for the first time since nominated by their respective parties for the Presidency.

Truman's close friend, Oscar Ewing, advised him to take his civil rights plan to its next logical step by desegregating the military by executive order rather than passing it through congress.[65] Considering the suggestion to be a "dangerous move" Truman initially hesitated, asserting that southern Democrats would oppose it.[65] However, on July 26, 1948, Truman signed Executive Order 9980 creating a system of "fair employment practices" within the federal government without discrimination because of race, color, religion or national origin; and Executive Order 9981 re-integrating the segregated Armed Forces.[65] The following day, in the special session of Congress, he called for action on civil rights, the economy, farm support, education, and housing development.[66][67] Republican legislators strongly opposed these measures, but the Dewey campaign partially supported Truman's civil rights plan, trying to separate themselves from the conservative record of Congress.[68] On July 31, Truman and Dewey met for the first and only time during the 1948 campaign at the dedication of Idlewild Airport (now John F. Kennedy International Airport) in New York City.[69] After speeches given by both the major party candidates, Truman humorously whispered to Dewey—"Tom, when you get to the White House, for God’s sake, do something about the plumbing."

In early August when the special session of Congress was about to end, Truman claimed in his weekly press conference that the eightieth Congress had failed to pass legislation he had proposed to curb inflation.[70] When a reporter asked him, "Do you think it [Congress] had been a "do-nothing" Congress?", Truman replied "Entirely".[71] In a memo to Clifford, Batt provided an overview of events and challenges that the Truman campaign might face. He suggested that both in August and after Labor Day in September, Truman should campaign continuously in close contact with voters.[72] At the outset of the fall campaign, Truman's advisers urged him to focus on critical states decided by narrow margins in 1944, and make his major addresses in the twenty-three largest metropolitan areas. It was decided he should make three long campaign tours—one each through the Midwest, the far West, and the Northeast, and a shorter trip to the South.[73]

Whistle-stop tour[]

See caption
President Truman signs a sheet of three-cent stamps on the back of his campaign train.
See caption
Political cartoon "Down by the Station" by James T. Berryman shows both major party candidates campaigning in whistle stop train tours.

Truman formally began his campaign on Labor Day with a one-day tour of Michigan and Ohio. In a speech at Grand Rapids, Michigan, he attacked Republicans claiming "special privilege" groups controlled the party.[74] Grand Rapids was a Republican stronghold, but around 25,000 people attended to listen to him.[74] His six stops in Michigan drew almost half a million people.[75] On September 13, a fundraiser was held at the White House with about 30 invited potential donors. Truman asked them for help, saying his campaign did not have the funds to buy radio time, and often had to cut an important part of a speech as a result.[76] He began his whistle-stop tour in an 83-foot (25 m) long train called the Ferdinand Magellan on September 17.[77] While boarding the train, Senator Barkley asked him if he was to carry the fight to them [Republicans], to which Truman replied, "We're going to give 'em hell".[78] Apart from Truman and his campaign team, about 100 other officials boarded the train, including many journalists.[79] Clark Clifford, David Bell, George Elsey, and Charles Murphy were responsible for writing Truman's major speeches.[80] The tour was divided into three segments—first cross-country to California for fifteen days, a six-day tour of the Middle West followed by a final ten days in the Northeast and a return trip to Missouri. Initially, Truman planned to travel in all 48 states but later decided to campaign only in swing states and democratic-leaning states, avoiding deep south states which heavily favored Dixiecrats.[81]

The train departed on September 17 from Pittsburgh, and headed west. The first major stop was in Dexter, Iowa, where Truman delivered a speech on September 18 at the National Plowing Contest.[82] He appealed to farmers and "average" Americans by dressing like a farmer in shirtsleeves and sitting down next to a group of farmers at a large picnic table.[83] He called the Republican party "gluttons of privilege", and said the Democratic Party represents the common people. He said, "I'm not asking you to vote for me, vote for yourselves, vote for your farms, vote for the standard of living you have won under a Democratic administration."[84] Meanwhile, Dewey was conducting a whistle-stop tour on his train called the Dewey Victory Special.[85] Thousands attended his speeches, but author Zachary Karabell said the crowd could hardly be called excited; they had no intensity or sense of the importance of the moment.[86] While campaigning, both major candidates did not mention each other by name, but attacked the other's platform indirectly. Truman continued blaming the "do nothing" Congress and called Republicans a "special-interest" group.[87]

During a speech in Salt Lake City, he said, "Selfish men have always tried to skim the cream from our natural resources to satisfy their own greed. And ...[their] instrument in this effort has always been the Republican Party."[87] In a busy schedule, Truman delivered four or five speeches a day but did not deliver speeches on Sundays. Instead, the First Lady and his daughter Margaret addressed the crowd, reflecting his family values.[88] Robert Donovan, a correspondent at the New York Herald Tribune, characterized Truman's campaign as "sharp speeches fairly criticizing Republican policy and defending New Deal liberalism".[89] In shorter speeches of about ten minutes, he praised and endorsed the local candidate for congressional election, and gave the rest of the speech covering local and general topics.[90] The size of the crowd increased in each subsequent town as people started seeing Truman as a fearless underdog.[91] However, his speeches were not covered extensively by radio or television. During one speech, a man from the crowd yelled, "Give 'em Hell, Harry!", as news accounts of his promise to Barkley spread across the country.[90] Truman replied, "I don't give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them, and they think it's Hell."[90] Soon after, many people started yelling and repeating "Give 'em Hell, Harry!", which by late September had become a well-known campaign slogan.[90][92]

While Truman campaigned on the train, his running mate Senator Barkley traveled by airplane, though he also avoided campaigning in the deep south.[93] While addressing a crowd of about 100,000 people on September 28 in Oklahoma, he answered the Republican charges of communism in government. Considering the importance of a speech and its effect on the campaign, the Democratic national committee decided to pay for nationwide radio time.[94] The next day, Truman gave his hundredth speech from the rear platform of the train. He spoke at 16 stops addressing over half a million people.[94] On October 11, he gave 11 speeches at different stops in 15 hours.[95] While addressing a crowd at Springfield, Illinois, the next day, he said:

"Democrats are practical folks. We like to get down to cases and talk business. It’s curious that our opponents, who claim to be so businesslike and so efficient, refuse to get down to specific issues. I don’t blame them for trying to campaign on theory. They are afraid to tell the people where they stand on specific issues. The Republicans know they can’t run on their record — that record is too bad. But you ought to know about their record. And since they won’t tell you, I will."[96]

By the end of his tour, he had delivered 337 speeches, 252 of which have been given from the rear platform of the train, which had covered 21,928 miles (35,290 km).[97][98][99] Truman campaigned much more actively than Dewey. Although both candidates held only a slight advantage in the number of states visited, Truman had a clear lead in the number of campaign stops, having made 238 stops to Dewey's 40.[a][101]

Media and polls; the final days[]

Clifford K. Berryman's editorial cartoon of October 19, 1948, shows the consensus of experts in mid-October
Clifford K. Berryman's political cartoon of October 19, 1948, shows the consensus of experts in mid-October
President Truman campaigning in an open car in October 1948
President Truman campaigning in an open car in October 1948

As Truman's whistle-stop tour continued, the size of the crowd increased. The large, mostly spontaneous gatherings at Truman's whistle-stop events were an important sign of a change in the campaign's momentum, but this shift mostly went unnoticed by polling agencies.[102] Except for Louis H. Bean and Survey Research Center's (SRC) polls,[103] most of the other polls conducted during the fall campaign polled Dewey having a clear decisive lead over Truman.[104] Dewey's campaign strategy was to avoid major mistakes and act presidential, which likely helped keep his polling numbers high.[104] Elmo Roper, a major pollster, announced his organization would discontinue polling since it had already predicted Dewey's victory by a large majority of electoral votes.[105] He said: "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things." His latest poll showed Dewey leading by an "unbeatable" 44 percent to Truman's 31 percent.[106] In early October, when Newsweek in an election survey asked fifty major political writers their prediction, all of them chose Dewey to win.[107] When Truman received the article, he said, "I know every one of these fifty fellows. There isn’t a single one of them has enough sense to pound sand in a rat hole."[107] In the wake of the expected Democratic defeat nationally, editors of major media corporations predicted the South would regain its influence in the Democratic party.[108]

Of all the speeches Truman gave in September and October, only about 70 were broadcast on the radio even locally; 20 were heard nationally.[109] The New York Herald Tribune reported that, "The voters are turning out to see the President of the United States; turning out in larger numbers than they will see candidate Dewey."[110] Most of the major newspapers like The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and The Washington Star endorsed Dewey.[111] The only major editorial endorsing Truman was The Boston Post, under the heading "Captain Courageous".[111] Truman called the Boston Post, "humbly honest, homespun and doggedly determined to do what is best for America as Abraham Lincoln".[111] He arrived back at the White House in early October and conducted some meetings with the Democratic National Committee's research division.[112] On October 3, Truman met with the campaign team to discuss strategy and concluded that the campaign needs a new approach to illustrate his effort for peace and security in the world.[113] He decided to send Chief Justice Fred M. Vinson on a diplomatic mission to Moscow attempting to negotiate an end to the Cold War with Soviet premier Joseph Stalin. Vinson initially disagreed, asserting that members of the court should confine themselves to their duties, especially in an election year, but he finally agreed to go.[114] As soon as the news of Truman's "Vinson mission" was released, several of his advisors, including Clifford and Elsey, vehemently opposed it, resulting in Truman immediately withdrawing the plan.[115] Several editors and columnists accused Truman of appeasement by including foreign policy in his campaign. The Times magazine wrote, "His attempted action was shocking because it showed that he had no conception whatever of the difference between the President of the United States and a U.S. politician."[116]

"It is not just a battle between two parties. It is a fight for the very soul of the American government."

Harry S. Truman, at Chicago Stadium on October 25, 1948.[117]

Even many Democrats strongly anticipated a victory for Dewey and did not campaign to obtain votes for Truman.[118] On October 10, Truman continued with the final segment of his whistle-stop tour by visiting rural counties in Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin.[119] The same day, he received a telegram from Thurmond insisting on a debate, but Truman's campaign ignored it as Thurmond's polling numbers were under two percent, even less than Wallace.[120] The next day, Dewey also went on a seven-day tour of the Midwest.[121] Truman was forced to make some campaign promises primarily because Dewey raised no issues that would force him to respond.[122] As his tour progressed, a crowd of several thousand waited hours for Truman at various stops.[123] Assured of his victory, Truman said that there are going to be "a lot of surprised pollsters".[124] His direct approach stood out more favorably compared to Dewey's strategy. Truman discussed specific issues and solutions, while Dewey mostly discussed general problems and did not provide the solution or his approach.[118]

With two weeks to election day, polls showed Dewey's lead reduced by 6%, yet polling within the Truman campaign showed Truman winning with 340 electoral votes to Dewey's 108 and Thurmond's 42.[125] Truman moved closer to the progressive left, drawing crowds with Henry Wallace’s message.[126] At the packed Chicago Stadium, he delivered a speech to a crowd of 24,000, considered to be his most influential speech during the campaign.[127] One author of the speech, David Noyes, later said that its aim "was to provoke Dewey into fighting back, a strategy Truman accepted".[127] Days before the election, he campaigned in Massachusetts at various stops attended by millions of people.[128] The campaign team released a film called The Truman Story on October 27, using existing newsreel footage of his whistle-stop tour. It was an instant success compared to The Dewey Story, released by the Republican campaign team.[129] On October 31, two days before election day, former First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt urged voters to vote for Truman in a nationally broadcast radio address. Soon after, various leading authors, including Noble Prize winner Sinclair Lewis, endorsed Truman.[130] The president of Screen Actors Guild, Ronald Reagan, also endorsed him, saying "more than a little impatient with those promises the Republicans made before they got control of Congress a couple of years ago".[130]

Election day[]

1948 electoral vote results
1948 electoral vote results
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0:00
Truman's victory speech at Kansas City, Missouri.
Truman holding Chicago Daily Tribune with erroneous headline "Dewey Defeats Truman"
Truman holding Chicago Daily Tribune with erroneous headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN".

On the afternoon of election day, Truman secretly went to the Biltmore Hotel to stay away from the media; only his family and the Secret Service knew his location.[131] Assured of Dewey's victory, the head of the Secret Service, James Maloney, reached New York to provide security for him. At about 9:00 p.m., just before Truman was about to retire, he called Jim Rowley to his room and asked to be wakened if anything important happened.[132] Initial counting showed Truman leading in the popular vote, but news commentators predicted a Dewey victory.[133] Sometime near midnight, Truman woke up, switched on the radio, and heard the National Broadcasting Company (NBC) commentator H. V. Kaltenborn saying—"Although the president is ahead by 1,200,000 votes, he is undoubtedly beaten."[134] At four in the morning, Rowley woke Truman saying "We’ve won!".[134] At 9:30 a.m. he was declared the winner in Illinois and California.[135]

Truman received 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 189 and Thurmond's 39.[136] He narrowly carried Ohio, Illinois, and California, the three most crucial states to both the campaigns. He won 28 states and received 49.5% of the popular vote.[137] In congressional races, Democrats won control of both the houses with 54 Senate seats for the Democrats and 42 for the Republicans. In the House of Representatives, the Democratic victory was overwhelming, 263 seats to 171.[138] In an upset defeat, Dewey officially conceded at 11:00 a.m. on November 3rd. Truman’s triumph astonished the nation and most of the pollsters. On its cover Newsweek called Truman's victory "startling", "astonishing" and "a major miracle".[135] Truman became the first candidate to lose in a Gallup poll but win the election.[139] His close friend Jerome Walsh recalls Truman on the election night:

"He [Truman] displayed neither tension nor elation. For instance someone remarked bitterly that if it hadn’t been for Wallace, New York and New Jersey would have gone Democratic by good majorities. But the President dismissed this with a wave of his hand. As far as Henry was concerned, he said, Henry wasn’t a bad guy; he was doing what he thought was right and he had every right in the world to pursue his course."

Truman was the first candidate since 1876, except Woodrow Wilson in 1916, to win the presidency without carrying New York.[140] In his victory speech on November 3, he called it "a victory by the Democratic party for the people". An early edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune had printed the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN", boldly anticipating a victory for Dewey.[141] On November 4, Truman stepped out onto the rear platform of the Ferdinand Magellan during a brief stop in St. Louis, Missouri.[142] Holding the Chicago Daily Tribune he posed for reporters to capture the moment. Time magazine later called it the "greatest photograph ever made of a politician celebrating victory".[143] Author and Truman's biographer David McCullough later wrote:

"Like some other photographs of other presidents—of Theodore Roosevelt in a white linen suit at the controls of a steam shovel in Panama, or Woodrow Wilson at Versailles, or Franklin Roosevelt, chin up, singing an old hymn beside Winston Churchill on board the Prince of Wales in the dark summer of 1941—this of Harry Truman in 1948 would convey the spirit of both the man and the moment as almost nothing else would."[142]

Results[]

Electoral results
Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote
Running mate
Count Percentage Vice-presidential candidate Home state Electoral vote
Harry S. Truman (Incumbent) Democratic[i] Missouri 24,179,347 49.55% 303 Alben William Barkley Kentucky 303
Thomas Edmund Dewey Republican[ii] New York 21,991,292 45.07% 189 Earl Warren California 189
James Strom Thurmond Sr. States' Rights Democratic South Carolina 1,175,930 2.41% 39[iii] Fielding Lewis Wright Mississippi 39[iii]
Henry Agard Wallace Progressive/American Labor New York 1,157,328 2.37% 0 Glen Hearst Taylor Idaho 0
Norman Mattoon Thomas Socialist New York 139,569 0.29% 0 Tucker Powell Smith Michigan 0
Claude A. Watson Prohibition California 103,708 0.21% 0 Dale Learn Pennsylvania 0
Edward A. Teichert Socialist Labor Pennsylvania 29,244 0.06% 0 Stephen Emery New York 0
Farrell Dobbs Socialist Workers Minnesota 13,613 0.03% 0 Grace Holmes Carlson Minnesota 0
Other 3,504 0.01% Other
Total 48,793,535 100% 531 531
Needed to win 266 266
Electoral vote
Truman
57.06%
Dewey
35.59%
Thurmond
7.34%
Popular vote
Truman
49.55%
Dewey
45.07%
Thurmond
2.41%
Wallace
2.37%
Others
0.60%
  • Source (Electoral Vote): "Electoral College Box Scores 1789–1996". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved July 5, 2021.
  • Source (Popular Vote): Leip, David. "1948 Presidential Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved July 5, 2021.

Notes

  1. ^ In New York, the Truman vote was a fusion of the Democratic and Liberal slates. There, Truman obtained 2,557,642 votes on the Democratic ticket and 222,562 votes on the Liberal ticket.
  2. ^ In Mississippi, the Dewey vote was a fusion of the Republican and Independent Republican slates. There, Dewey obtained 2,595 votes on the Republican ticket and 2,448 votes on the Independent Republican ticket
  3. ^ A Tennessee faithless elector voted for Thurmond/Wright

Aftermath and legacy[]

Truman's famous photo holding the erroneous newspaper headline used in a campaign button during 1992 election.
Truman's famous photo holding the erroneous newspaper headline used in a campaign button during 1992 election.

"The American people love Harry Truman, not because he gave them hell, but because he gave them hope."

Lyndon B. Johnson, 36th President of the United States[144]

President Truman and Vice-President-elect Barkley were inaugurated on January 20, 1949—the first nationally televised inauguration.[145] In his second term as president, Congress ratified the 22nd Amendment, making a president ineligible for election to a third term or for election to a second full term after serving more than two remaining years of a term of a previously elected president.[146] As Truman was eligible to run in 1952, he contested the New Hampshire primaries, but lost to Senator Estes Kefauver.[147] During the Korean War, his approval rating had dropped to 30%. 18 days after the New Hampshire primary, Truman formally announced he would not seek a second full term. Truman was eventually able to persuade Adlai Stevenson to run, and the governor gained the nomination at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[148] Stevenson lost the 1952 presidential election to the Republican nominee Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Truman's 1948 campaign and the election are most remembered for the failure of polls, which predicted an easy win for Governor Dewey.[149] One reason for the press's inaccurate projection was that polls were conducted primarily by telephone, but many people, including much of Truman's populist base, did not own a telephone. The major reasons for Truman's victory are given as his co-ordination in handling a single-handed campaign, despite most of the polls and political experts predicting victory for Dewey;[150] and his direct appeal to middle class Americans, which earned him the vote of farmers, who traditionally voted for the Republican party.[151][150] The Rowe-Clifford memo, which highlighted the challenges and the road map for Truman's campaign, was later described by The Washington Post as "one of this century's most famous political memorandums".[152] McCullough noted that when it came to his message, Truman had just one strategy—"attack, attack, attack, carry the fight to the enemy's camp".[153] Historian Michael Kammen later wrote:

Truman shrewdly ran against the Republican ghost of Herbert Hoover than against the formidable dullness of Thomas E. Dewey..... Memories and misconceptions of the past may have played a crucial role in shaping both public opinion and government policies.... the belief that a reading of history 'taught' that thus-and-so seemed the prudent course of action to follow. Harry Truman may be the most notable exemplar of that attitude."[154]

See also[]

Notes and references[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ The number of campaign stops (238 for Truman and 40 for Dewey) are from September 3 till the election day. It differs from the number of days spent in the state, or his overall number of tours.[100]

References[]

  1. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 26.
  2. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 259.
  3. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 327.
  4. ^ Eisenberg 2016, p. 1.
  5. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 380.
  6. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 391.
  7. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 384.
  8. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 500.
  9. ^ Baime 2020, p. 7.
  10. ^ Baime 2020, p. 2.
  11. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 41.
  12. ^ Jump up to: a b c McCullough 1992, p. 651.
  13. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 653.
  14. ^ Lemelin 2001, pp. 39–40.
  15. ^ Jump up to: a b c d Baime 2020, p. 101.
  16. ^ Sitkoff 1971, p. 597.
  17. ^ Jump up to: a b Lemelin 2001, p. 6.
  18. ^ Jump up to: a b Karabell 2001, p. 73.
  19. ^ Jump up to: a b Guide to U.S. Elections 2009, pp. 397–398.
  20. ^ Busch 2012, p. 2.
  21. ^ Jump up to: a b c Farley 1989, p. 150.
  22. ^ Bray 1964, p. 1.
  23. ^ Baime 2020, p. 134.
  24. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 694.
  25. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 164.
  26. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 692.
  27. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 165.
  28. ^ Jump up to: a b c Busch 2012, p. 104.
  29. ^ Baime 2020, p. 138.
  30. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e McCullough 1992, p. 709.
  31. ^ Jump up to: a b Baime 2020, p. 153.
  32. ^ Baime 2020, pp. 151–152.
  33. ^ Baime 2020, p. 151.
  34. ^ Baime 2020, p. 152.
  35. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 707.
  36. ^ Donaldson 1999, p. 160.
  37. ^ Jump up to: a b Karabell 2001, p. 197.
  38. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 708.
  39. ^ Jump up to: a b Baime 2020, p. 159.
  40. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 194.
  41. ^ Jump up to: a b Busch 2012, p. 108.
  42. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 198.
  43. ^ Murphy 2020, p. 77.
  44. ^ Busch 2012, p. 109.
  45. ^ Jump up to: a b Baime 2020, p. 169.
  46. ^ Jump up to: a b Karabell 2001, p. 200.
  47. ^ Donaldson 1999, p. 164.
  48. ^ Gullan 1998, p. 101.
  49. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 712.
  50. ^ Pietrusza 2014, p. 3.
  51. ^ Truman 2003, p. 53.
  52. ^ Lee 1963, p. 256.
  53. ^ Jump up to: a b Pietrusza 2014, p. 4.
  54. ^ Jump up to: a b Truman 2003, p. 59.
  55. ^ Jump up to: a b Pietrusza 2014, p. 1.
  56. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 735.
  57. ^ Jump up to: a b Truman 2003, p. 4.
  58. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 715.
  59. ^ Gullan 1998, p. 104.
  60. ^ Jump up to: a b Baime 2020, p. 207.
  61. ^ Baime 2020, p. 210.
  62. ^ Baime 2020, p. 212.
  63. ^ Baime 2020, p. 213.
  64. ^ Gullan 1998, pp. 106–107.
  65. ^ Jump up to: a b c Baime 2020, p. 214.
  66. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 723.
  67. ^ Gullan 1998, p. 108.
  68. ^ Donaldson 1999, p. 168.
  69. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 236.
  70. ^ Baime 2020, p. 224.
  71. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 724.
  72. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 239.
  73. ^ Busch 2012, p. 136.
  74. ^ Jump up to: a b Baime 2020, p. 256.
  75. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 657.
  76. ^ Baime 2020, pp. 262–263.
  77. ^ Baime 2020, p. 250.
  78. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 265.
  79. ^ List to board President's special train, Toledo, Ohio 1948, p. 3.
  80. ^ Some Aspects of the Preparation of President Truman's Speeches for the 1948 Campaign 1948, p. 2.
  81. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 726-727.
  82. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 262.
  83. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 263.
  84. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 264.
  85. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 252.
  86. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 253.
  87. ^ Jump up to: a b Truman 2003, p. 85.
  88. ^ List of Campaign Speeches 1948, p. 1-6.
  89. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 734.
  90. ^ Jump up to: a b c d McCullough 1992, p. 736.
  91. ^ Baime 2020, p. 293.
  92. ^ Baime 2020, p. 291.
  93. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 271.
  94. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 754.
  95. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 774.
  96. ^ Truman 2003, p. 115.
  97. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 654.
  98. ^ List of Campaign Speeches 1948, p. 6.
  99. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 269.
  100. ^ Holbrook 2002, p. 61.
  101. ^ Holbrook 2002, p. 60.
  102. ^ Baime 2020, p. 294.
  103. ^ Visser 1994, p. 48.
  104. ^ Jump up to: a b Eisenberg 2016, p. 7.
  105. ^ Lemelin 2001, p. 42.
  106. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 729.
  107. ^ Jump up to: a b Karabell 2001, p. 273.
  108. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 285.
  109. ^ Karabell 2001, pp. 270–271.
  110. ^ Karabell 2001, pp. 303–304.
  111. ^ Jump up to: a b c McCullough 1992, p. 773.
  112. ^ Baime 2020, p. 311.
  113. ^ Baime 2020, p. 312.
  114. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 760–761.
  115. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 761.
  116. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 762.
  117. ^ Baime 2020, p. 9.
  118. ^ Jump up to: a b Bogardus 1949, p. 80.
  119. ^ Donaldson 1999, p. 82.
  120. ^ Baime 2020, p. 321.
  121. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 305.
  122. ^ Donaldson 1999, p. 183.
  123. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 766.
  124. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 771.
  125. ^ McCullough 1992, pp. 771–774.
  126. ^ Karabell 2001, p. 307.
  127. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 777.
  128. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 778.
  129. ^ Baime 2020, p. 326.
  130. ^ Jump up to: a b Baime 2020, p. 346.
  131. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 781.
  132. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 782.
  133. ^ Bray 1964, p. 38.
  134. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 783.
  135. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 786.
  136. ^ Karabell 2001, pp. 392–393.
  137. ^ Gullan 1998, p. 176.
  138. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 787.
  139. ^ Sitkoff 1971, p. 613.
  140. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 658.
  141. ^ Baime 2020, p. 392.
  142. ^ Jump up to: a b McCullough 1992, p. 795.
  143. ^ Baime 2020, p. 398.
  144. ^ Truman 2003, p. 224.
  145. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 798.
  146. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 849.
  147. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 980.
  148. ^ McCullough 1992, p. 1065.
  149. ^ The Spiral of Silence in the 1948 Presidential Election 1948, pp. 141–142.
  150. ^ Jump up to: a b Bogardus 1949, p. 82.
  151. ^ Bogardus 1949, p. 81.
  152. ^ Baime 2020, p. 104.
  153. ^ Busch 2012, p. 130.
  154. ^ Gullan 1998, p. 218.

Works cited[]

  • Farley, Karin Clafford (1989). Harry S. Truman : The Man from Independence. J. Messner. ISBN 978-0-671-65853-3. LCCN 88031188. OL 2053299M.
  • Gullan, Harold I. (1998). The Upset That Wasn't: Harry S Truman and the Crucial Election of 1948. Ivan R. Dee Publisher. ISBN 978-1-56663-206-5. LCCN 98026167. OL 365819M.
  • Guide to U.S. Elections. SAGE Publications. 2009. ISBN 978-1-60426-536-1.
  • Bogardus, Emory S. (1949). "Public Opinion and the Presidential Election of 1948". Social Forces. Oxford University Press. 28 (1): 79–83. doi:10.2307/2572103. JSTOR 2572103.
  • Lemelin, Bernard (2001). "The U.S. Presidential Election of 1948: The Causes of Truman's "Astonishing" Victory". Revue française d'études américaines. 87: 38–61. doi:10.3917/rfea.087.0038. ISSN 0397-7870.
  • McDonald, Daniel G.; Glynn, Carroll J.; Kim, Sei-Hill; Ostman, Ronald E. (April 2001). "The Spiral of Silence in the 1948 Presidential Election". Communication Research. 28 (2): 139–155. doi:10.1177/009365001028002001. S2CID 13165150.
  • Sitkoff, Harvard (1971). "Harry Truman and the Election of 1948: The Coming of Age of Civil Rights in American Politics". The Journal of Southern History. 37 (4): 597–616. doi:10.2307/2206548. JSTOR 2206548.

External links[]

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