Interprovincial migration in Canada

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Net cumulative interprovincial migration for each province and territory (1997–2017), as a share of population. (Reds indicate loss, greens gain)

Interprovincial migration in Canada is the movement by people from one Canadian province or territory to another with the intention of settling, permanently or temporarily, in the new province or territory; it is more-or-less stable over time.[1] In fiscal year 2019–20, 278,316 Canadians migrated province, representing 0.729% of the population.[2]

The Interprovincial migration levels of each province can be construed as a way to measure the success of these jurisdiction. The main measurement used is net interprovincial migration, which is simply the difference between residents moving out of a province (out-migration) and the number of residents from other provinces moving into that province (in-migration). Since 1971, the provinces which received the most net cumulative interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Alberta and British Columbia, while the provinces which had the largest net loss of interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.[3]

History[]

Pamphlet advertising for immigration to Western Canada, c. 1910

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, Canadians who left their home province to settle elsewhere usually went to the United States rather than to other Canadian provinces. In fact, from the early years of confederation to the 1930s, Quebec and the maritimes provinces experienced a period of mass-emigration to the United States. From 1860 to 1920, half a million people left the maritimes,[4] and between 1840 and 1930, about 900,000 French Canadians left Quebec in order to immigrate to the United States, mainly in New England.[5][6]

However, some French Canadians and Maritimers were also drawn to Ontario in the 19th century and early 20th century, when the development of mining and forestry resources in the northeastern and eastern regions of the province attracted a large workforce. This migration significantly increased the proportion of francophones in Ontario.[7] The Francophone population of Ontario continues to be concentrated mainly in the northeastern and eastern parts of the province, close to the border with Quebec, although smaller pockets of Francophone settlement exist throughout the province.

After Manitoba joined Confederation in 1870, the new provincial government was controlled by Anglo Canadians. The agreement for the establishment of the Province had included guarantees that the Métis would receive grants of land and that their existing unofficial landholdings would be recognized. These guarantees were largely ignored. New anglophone migrants coming from Ontario were instead given most of the land. Facing this discrimination, the Métis moved in large numbers to what would become Saskatchewan and Alberta.[8]

Starting in 1871, the Canadian government entered multiple treaties with indigenous nations to gain their consent to take their lands "for immigration and settlement" in the area of the former Rupert's Land (although many of the treaty terms made to get this consent were subsequently violated by Canada).[9] The Dominion government then passed the Dominion Lands Act in 1872 to encourage the settlement of the Canadian Prairies, and to help prevent the area from being claimed by the United States.[10] The act gave a claimant 160 acres (or 65 hectares) for free, the only cost to the farmer being a $10 administration fee. Any male farmer who was at least 21 years of age and agreed to cultivate at least 40 acres (16 ha) of the land and build a permanent dwelling on it (within three years) qualified.[11] The population of the Canadian prairies grew rapidly in the last decade of the 19th century, and the population of Saskatchewan quintupled from 91,000 in 1901 to 492,000 to 1911.[12] However, the vast majority of these people were immigrants from Europe.[11] Interprovincial migration in Canada was at its highest in the first 20 years of the 20th century, and started to decrease in the 1920s.[13]

Out-emigration from Quebec dramatically spiked in 1977, one year after the Parti Québécois won the 1976 Quebec general elections. It spiked again in 1996, one year after the 1995 Quebec referendum. This second spike was, however, 37.5% the size of the 1977 spike.[3]

Influences[]

A number of factors have been identified by academic research in influencing interprovincial migration.

Demographic factors[]

The odds of a Canadian moving from one province to another is inversely related to the home province's population size: the larger the province, the less likely a resident is to move away. Interprovincial migration is negatively related to marriage, and the presence of children for both men and women. Younger people also tend to be more mobile than their older counterparts. Men are more likely to move than women, although men's rates of interprovincial migration are declining slightly while women's are holding steadier or rising slightly.[1]

Interprovincial migration is also more common among residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas than for residents of larger cities. The largest Canadian population centers (Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, Calgary and Edmonton) also tend to attract the largest amount of interprovincial migrants, and there is a lot of flow between these cities.[14]

Economic factors[]

The economic situation of each province is an important indicator of internal migration within Canada. It is more likely for people to move out of a province with higher unemployment rate. Interprovincial migration is also positively related to the individuals' receipt of unemployment insurance, having no market income, and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men).[1] Canadian provinces also tend to lose more people than they gain when their province is in recession. Alberta, for example, experienced a net loss of people to interprovincial migration from September 2015 to December 2017.[15]

Language[]

Language spoken is a strong predictor of interprovincial migration. Francophone Quebeckers are among the groups of people which are the least likely to move across provinces.[16] Francophones in New Brunswick are much less likely to move out of province than their anglophone counterparts.[13]

The only group less likely to migrate across province than Francophone quebeckers is francophone immigrants living in Quebec. Inversely, Francophone immigrants living outside Quebec is the group most prone to interprovincial migration, as 9.2% of them move to another province. Over half of Francophones outside Quebec (immigrant and Canada-born) who migrate across provinces choose Quebec as their destination.[16]

Literacy[]

Literacy used to be a significant indicator of interprovincial migration in Canada in the late 19th and early 20th century. Anglophone Canadians who could read were more likely to move than their illiterate counterparts. For francophone Quebeckers, however, this was the opposite, as literate unilingual francophones were more likely to stay in Quebec than illiterate unilingual francophones. Literacy had, however, no effect on the likelihood of migration of bilingual Quebeckers.[13]

Provincial level[]

Number of years between 1971 and 2019 that each province and territory had positive interprovincial immigration. Darker shades represent more years.

Alberta[]

Over the past five decades, Alberta has had the highest net increase from interprovincial migration of any province. However, it typically experiences population decline during economic downturns, as it did during the 1980s.[3] Oil is the main industry driving interprovincial migration to Alberta, as many Canadians move to Alberta to work on the oil fields. Interprovincial migration to Alberta rises and drops dependent of the price of oil. There was a dramatic reduction after the 2014 drop in oil prices.[17][15]

Interprovincial migration in Alberta
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 80,837 Positive decrease 53,185 Increase 27,652
2012–13 Increase 84,602 Positive decrease 46,004 Increase 38,598
2013–14 Increase 87,307 Negative increase 51,925 Decrease 35,382
2014–15 Decrease 81,540 Negative increase 59,946 Decrease 21,594
2015–16 Decrease 56,978 Negative increase 72,086 Decrease −15,108
2016–17 Decrease 50,396 Positive decrease 65,955 Decrease −15,559
2017–18 Increase 55,147 Positive decrease 58,394 Increase −3,247
2018–19 Decrease 52,796 Positive decrease 54,828 Increase −2,032
2019–20 Increase 56,538 Negative increase 58,915 Decrease −2,377
2020–21 Decrease 53,509 Negative increase 65,340 Decrease −11,831

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

British Columbia[]

British Columbia has also traditionally been gaining from interprovincial migration. Over the last 50 years, British Columbia had 12 years of negative interprovincial immigration: the lowest in the country. The only time the province significantly lost population to this phenomenon was during the 1990s, when it had a negative interprovincial migration for 5 consecutive years.[3]

Interprovincial migration in British Columbia
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 48,593 Negative increase 51,304 Decrease −2,711
2012–13 Decrease 43,830 Positive decrease 45,698 Increase −1,868
2013–14 Increase 52,281 Positive decrease 42,806 Increase 9,475
2014–15 Increase 61,026 Positive decrease 40,647 Increase 20,379
2015–16 Increase 63,788 Positive decrease 37,215 Increase 26,573
2016–17 Decrease 57,210 Negative increase 38,376 Decrease 18,834
2017–18 Decrease 55,300 Negative increase 41,311 Decrease 13,989
2018–19 Decrease 53,434 Positive decrease 40,109 Decrease 13,325
2019–20 Increase 60,584 Negative increase 43,585 Increase 16,999
2020–21 Increase 70,856 Positive decrease 36,579 Increase 34,277

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Manitoba[]

Manitoba is one of the provinces most affected by Interprovincial migration, having had a negative mobility ratio for 42 out of 46 years from 1971 to 2017. This is the second-worst record for years of negative interprovincial migration, followed only by Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Manitoba
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 11,443 Negative increase 15,655 Decrease −4,212
2012–13 Decrease 9,988 Positive decrease 14,994 Decrease −5,006
2013–14 Decrease 9,452 Negative increase 16,303 Decrease −6,851
2014–15 Increase 10,022 Negative increase 16,700 Increase −6,678
2015–16 Increase 10,994 Positive decrease 15,875 Increase −4,881
2016–17 Decrease 10,350 Positive decrease 15,474 Decrease −5,124
2017–18 Decrease 9,578 Negative increase 16,726 Decrease −7,148
2018–19 Decrease 9,427 Negative increase 16,778 Decrease −7,351
2019–20 Increase 10,376 Negative increase 18,673 Decrease −8,297
2020–21 Decrease 9,580 Negative increase 19,265 Decrease −9,685

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

New Brunswick[]

New Brunswick has typically experienced less emigration than its size and economic situation would suggest, probably because of the low rate of emigration of its francophone population.[1] However, New Brunswick is predicted to continue low or negative population growth in the long term due to interprovincial migration and a low birth rate.[18]

Interprovincial migration in New Brunswick
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Decrease 10,044 Negative increase 11,850 Decrease −1,806
2012–13 Decrease 8,517 Positive decrease 11,807 Decrease −3,290
2013–14 Increase 9,055 Negative increase 12,572 Decrease −3,517
2014–15 Increase 9,184 Positive decrease 11,974 Increase −2,790
2015–16 Increase 10,248 Positive decrease 11,361 Increase −1,113
2016–17 Decrease 10,136 Positive decrease 9,702 Increase 434
2017–18 Increase 10,709 Negative increase 10,228 Increase 481
2018–19 Increase 10,821 Negative increase 9,152 Increase 1,669
2019–20 Increase 11,881 Negative increase 10,055 Increase 1,826
2020–21 Increase 13,481 Positive decrease 9,594 Increase 3,887

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Newfoundland and Labrador[]

Since it started being recorded in 1971, Newfoundland and Labrador is the province that has lost the biggest share of its population to interprovincial migration, which was especially high in the 1990s. Out-migration from the province was curtailed in 2008 and net migration stayed positive through 2014, when it again dropped due to bleak finances and rising unemployment (caused by falling oil prices).[3] With the announcement of the 2016 provincial budget, St. John's Telegram columnist Russell Wangersky published the column "Get out if you can", which urged young Newfoundlanders to leave the province to avoid future hardships.[19]

Interprovincial migration in Newfoundland and Labrador
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 8,173 Positive decrease 7,628 Increase 545
2012–13 Decrease 7,283 Positive decrease 6,788 Decrease 495
2013–14 Decrease 6,994 Positive decrease 6,760 Decrease 234
2014–15 Increase 7,012 Negative increase 6,851 Decrease 161
2015–16 Decrease 6,600 Positive decrease 6,368 Increase 232
2016–17 Decrease 5,400 Negative increase 6,830 Decrease −1,430
2017–18 Decrease 5,187 Negative increase 7,920 Decrease −2,733
2018–19 Decrease 4,914 Positive decrease 7,511 Increase −2,597
2019–20 Increase 5,525 Positive decrease 7,541 Increase −2,016
2019–20 Increase 6,169 Positive decrease 5,384 Increase 785

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Nova Scotia[]

From 1971 to 2012, Nova Scotia had a persistent negative trend in net interprovincial migration. Combined with a declining birth rate, this poses a significant demographic challenge for the province, as its population is projected to decline from 948,000 people in 2011 to 926,000 people in 2038. The destination for Nova Scotia migrants was most often Ontario, until the turn of the 21st century when Alberta became a more popular destination; New Brunswick ranks as a distant third.[20]

Interprovincial migration in Nova Scotia
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Decrease 14,410 Negative increase 17,276 Decrease −2,866
2012–13 Decrease 12,630 Positive decrease 16,147 Decrease −3,517
2013–14 Increase 13,402 Positive decrease 15,973 Increase −2,571
2014–15 Increase 13,854 Negative increase 16,165 Increase −2,311
2015–16 Increase 15,107 Positive decrease 14,353 Increase 754
2016–17 Increase 15,339 Positive decrease 12,500 Increase 2,839
2017–18 Increase 15,509 Positive decrease 12,461 Increase 3,048
2018–19 Increase 15,757 Positive decrease 12,125 Increase 3,632
2019–20 Increase 18,912 Negative increase 13,345 Increase 5,567
2020–21 Increase 20,484 Positive decrease 10,535 Increase 9,949

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Ontario[]

Ontario's interprovincial migrations have shifted over the years. It was negative in the 1970s, positive in the 1980s, but then negative again in the 1990s. It returned to positive figures around the time of the turn of the millennium, was consistently in the negatives from 2003 to 2015, then returned to the positives through 2018. Over the period from 1971 to 2015, Ontario was the province which experience the second-lowest levels of interprovincial in-migration and out-migration, second only to Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Ontario
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 60,459 Negative increase 71,070 Decrease −10,611
2012–13 Decrease 54,678 Positive decrease 68,579 Decrease −13,901
2013–14 Increase 57,415 Negative increase 71,979 Decrease −14,564
2014–15 Increase 62,874 Positive decrease 71,569 Increase −8,695
2015–16 Increase 71,790 Positive decrease 62,713 Increase 9,077
2016–17 Decrease 71,717 Positive decrease 58,335 Increase 13,382
2017–18 Decrease 69,918 Negative increase 59,974 Decrease 9,944
2018–19 Decrease 66,980 Negative increase 60,351 Increase 6,629
2019–20 Increase 75,188 Negative increase 72,394 Decrease 2,794
2020–21 Decrease 65,497 Negative increase 82,582 Decrease −17,085

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Prince Edward Island[]

Since 1971, Prince Edward Island mostly had years of positive interprovincial migration. However, in the 2010s, it turned to the negative. This interprovincial migration exceeded all immigration to the province in 2015.[21]

Interprovincial migration in Prince Edward Island
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 2,620 Negative increase 3,238 Decrease −618
2012–13 Decrease 2,294 Positive decrease 3,195 Decrease −901
2013–14 Decrease 2,198 Positive decrease 3,139 Decrease −941
2014–15 Increase 2,367 Positive decrease 3,049 Increase −682
2015–16 Increase 2,874 Positive decrease 2,844 Increase 30
2016–17 Increase 3,124 Positive decrease 2,680 Increase 444
2017–18 Increase 3,193 Negative increase 3,016 Decrease 177
2018–19 Increase 3,562 Positive decrease 2,900 Increase 662
2019–20 Increase 4,500 Negative increase 3,350 Increase 1,150
2020–21 Decrease 4,186 Positive decrease 3,196 Decrease 990

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Quebec[]

Since it began being recorded in 1971 until 2018, each year Quebec has had negative interprovincial migration, and among the provinces it has experienced the largest net loss of people due to the effect.[3] Between 1981 and 2017, Quebec lost about 229,700 people below the age of 45 to interprovincial migration.[22] Per capita, Quebec has lost significantly fewer people than other provinces. This is due to the large population of the province and the very low migration rate of francophone Quebeckers.[1] However, Quebec receives much fewer than average in-migrants from other provinces.[3]

In Quebec, allo-phones are more likely to migrate out of the province than average: between 1996 and 2001, over 19,170 migrated to other provinces; 18,810 of whom migrated to Ontario.[23]

Interprovincial Migration Between Quebec and Other Provinces and Territories by Mother Tongue[24]
Mother Tongue / Year 1971–1976 1976–1981 1981–1986 1986–1991 1991–1996 1996–2001 2001–2006 2006–2011 2011-2016 Total
French −4,100 −18,000 −12,900 5,200 1,200 −8,900 5,000 −2,610 −9,940 −45,050
English −52,200 −106,300 −41,600 −22,200 −24,500 −29,200 −8,000 −5,930 −11,005 −300,635
Other −5,700 −17,400 −8,700 −8,600 −14,100 −19,100 −8,700 −12,710 −16,015 −111,025
Interprovincial migration in Quebec
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 20,179 Negative increase 27,094 Decrease −6,915
2012–13 Decrease 16,879 Negative increase 27,310 Decrease −10,431
2013–14 Decrease 16,536 Negative increase 30,848 Decrease −14,312
2014–15 Increase 16,611 Negative increase 32,753 Decrease −16,142
2015–16 Increase 19,259 Positive decrease 30,377 Increase −11,118
2016–17 Increase 19,531 Positive decrease 27,658 Increase −8,127
2017–18 Increase 20,777 Positive decrease 26,470 Increase −5,693
2018–19 Increase 21,465 Positive decrease 25,593 Increase −4,128
2019–20 Increase 25,195 Negative increase 29,631 Decrease −4,436
2020–21 Increase 25,783 Positive decrease 27,233 Increase −1,450

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Saskatchewan[]

Inter-provincial migration has long been a demographic challenge for Saskatchewan, and it was often said that "Saskatchewan's most valuable export [was] its young people".[25] The trend reversed in 2006 as the nascent oil fracking industry started growing in the province, but returned to negative net migration starting in 2013. Most people migrating from Saskatchewan move west to Alberta or British Columbia.[26]

Interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2011–12 Increase 19,386 Negative increase 17,508 Increase 1,878
2012–13 Decrease 16,982 Positive decrease 16,590 Decrease 392
2013–14 Decrease 16,371 Negative increase 18,210 Decrease −1,839
2014–15 Decrease 15,346 Negative increase 19,874 Decrease −4,528
2015–16 Decrease 15,260 Positive decrease 19,532 Increase −4,272
2016–17 Decrease 13,130 Positive decrease 18,890 Decrease −5,760
2017–18 Decrease 11,637 Negative increase 20,112 Decrease −8,475
2018–19 Decrease 11,100 Negative increase 20,541 Decrease −9,441
2019–20 Increase 11,665 Negative increase 23,077 Decrease −11,412
2020–21 Increase 12,575 Positive decrease 21,985 Increase −9,410

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ a b c d e Finnie, Ross (2004). School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University and Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada. "Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada". Applied Economics. 36 (16): 1759–1779. doi:10.1080/0003684042000191147. S2CID 153591155.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Statistics Canada, table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, annual.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Interprovincial Migration in Canada: Quebeckers Vote with Their Feet" (PDF). www.fraserinstitute.org. Retrieved 2018-12-26.
  4. ^ Thornton, Patricia A. (Autumn 1985). "The Problem of Out-Migration from Atlantic Canada, 1871-1921: A New Look". Acadiensis. XV (1): 3–34. ISSN 0044-5851. JSTOR 30302704.
  5. ^ Bélanger, Damien-Claude (23 August 2000). "French Canadian Emigration to the United States, 1840–1930". Québec History, Claude Bélanger, Marianopolis College. Archived from the original on 25 January 2007. Retrieved 2007-01-31.
  6. ^ Bélanger, Claude. "Emigration to the United States from Canada and Quebec, 1840–1940". Quebec History. Marianopolis College. Retrieved 24 July 2013.
  7. ^ Robert Craig Brown, and Ramsay Cook, Canada, 1896-1921: A nation transformed (1974) pp 253-62
  8. ^ Sprague, DN (1988). Canada and the Métis, 1869–1885. Waterloo, ON: Wilfrid Laurier University Press. pp. 33–67, 89–129. ISBN 0-88920-964-2.
  9. ^ Carr-Steward, Sheila (2001). "A Treaty Right to Education" (PDF). Canadian Journal of Education. doi:10.2307/1602197. JSTOR 1602197. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-04.
  10. ^ Lambrecht, Kirk N (1991). The Administration of Dominion Lands, 1870-1930.
  11. ^ a b "Dominion Lands Act | The Canadian Encyclopedia". www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  12. ^ The history of Saskatchewan's population Archived 2006-05-19 at the Wayback Machine from Statistics Canada
  13. ^ a b c Lew, Byron; Cater, Bruce (May 2011). "Interprovincial Migration in Canada, 1911–1951 and Beyond" (PDF). people.trentu.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  14. ^ Amirault, David; de Munnik, Daniel; Miller, Sarah (Spring 2013). "Explaining Canada's regional Migration Patterns" (PDF). www.bankofcanada.ca. Bank of Canada Review. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  15. ^ a b December 21, Jonny Wakefield Updated; 2017 (2017-12-21). "Alberta no longer a loser on interprovincial migration | Edmonton Journal". Retrieved 2018-12-26.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  16. ^ a b Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2017-02-06). "Interprovincial migration of French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec". aem. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  17. ^ "The death of the Alberta dream - Macleans.ca". www.macleans.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  18. ^ "The Implications of New Brunswick's Population Forecasts" (PDF). www.nbjobs.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  19. ^ Bailey, Sue (19 April 2016). "Exodus? Newfoundland and Labrador's bleak finances fuel angst for the future". CBC News. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  20. ^ Rashti, Amir Ahmadi; Koops, Adrian; Covey, Spencer (Spring 2015). "The Effects of Capital on Interprovincial Migration: A Nova Scotia Focused Assessment". Dalhousie Journal of Interdisciplinary Management. 11: 28.
  21. ^ Aug 16, Kevin Yarr · CBC News · Posted; August 16, 2016 11:00 AM AT | Last Updated; 2016. "Immigration not keeping pace with people leaving P.E.I. | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-12-28.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  22. ^ Serebrin, Jacob; July 26, Montreal Gazette Updated; 2018 (2018-07-26). "Quebec losing young people to interprovincial migration, report shows | Montreal Gazette". Retrieved 2018-12-28.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  23. ^ "Net population gains or losses from interprovincial migration by language group, provinces and territories, 1991-1996 and 1996-2001". Archived from the original on 2008-06-17. Retrieved 2018-12-29.
  24. ^ "Interprovincial Migration by Mother Tongue for Interprovincial Migrants Aged 5 Years and Over, Provinces and Territories, 1971 to 2016". Statistics Canada. Retrieved 2010-03-11.
  25. ^ Elliot, Doug (2005). Interprovincial Migration - in the Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. Regina: Canadian Plains Research Center, University of Regina. pp. 483–484.
  26. ^ "Exodus of Saskatchewan residents to Alberta, British Columbia, continues to plague province | Globalnews.ca". globalnews.ca. 2018-06-06. Archived from the original on 2018-12-29. Retrieved 2018-12-28.

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