Opinion polling for the 1979 United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polls

In the run-up to the 1979 United Kingdom general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the October general election until 3 May 1979.

Graphical summaries[]

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 1979 United Kingdom general election using a 15-poll moving average.

  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberals

National Poll Results[]

All data is from UK Polling Report.[1]

1979[]

Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
3 May 1979 general election 36.9% 43.9% 13.8% 7%
2 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38.5% 49% 9% 10.5%
2 May NOP Daily Mail 39% 46% 12.5% 7%
2 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 43% 13.5% 2%
2 May MORI Evening Standard 37% 45% 15% 8%
1 May MORI Daily Express 38.8% 44.4% 13.5% 5.6%
1 May Marplan The Sun 38.5% 45% 9% 6.5%
30 Apr NOP Daily Mail 43.1% 42.4% 12.2% 0.7%
26 Apr MORI Daily Express 41% 44% 12% 3%
25 Apr Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 40% 48% 10.5% 8%
25 Apr Research Srv The Observer 38% 49.5% 10% 11.5%
25 Apr Marplan The Sun 40% 48% 10% 8%
23 Apr MORI Daily Express 40% 46% 11% 6%
21 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 46.5% 10% 5%
19 Apr Marplan The Sun 40% 50% 9% 10%
18 Apr Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 42% 47.5% 9% 5.5%
18 Apr Marplan The Sun 41% 51% 6% 10%
18 Apr Research Srv The Observer 34% 54% 9.5% 20%
17 Apr MORI Daily Express 38% 50% 10% 12%
14 Apr NOP Daily Mail 42% 48% 8% 6%
11 Apr Research Srv The Observer 37% 53% 8% 16%
9 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40% 50% 8% 10%
9 Apr MORI Daily Express 39% 49% 10% 10%
7 Apr The Dissolution of the 47th Parliament and campaigning officially begins
4 Apr Research Srv The Observer 33.5% 54.5% 9% 21%
3 Apr NOP Daily Mail 42% 48% 8% 6%
2 Apr MORI Daily Express 38% 51% 10% 13%
29 Mar MORI Thames 42% 51% 5% 9%
29 Mar Liverpool Edge Hill by-election
28 Mar The vote of no confidence in the Callaghan ministry passes[2]
28 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 47.5% 9% 7%
12 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 51.5% 8.5% 14.5%
5 Mar MORI N/A 39% 52% 7% 13%
1 Mar Knutsford and Clitheroe by-elections
14 Feb The Winter of Discontent ends following negotiations with the TUC[3]
12 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33% 53% 11% 20%
8 Feb NOP N/A 40.7% 49% 7.4% 8.3%
1 Feb MORI N/A 36% 55% 6% 19%
15 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 49% 6% 7.5%
4 Jan NOP N/A 49.1% 42.5% 5.7% 6.6%

1978[]

Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
14 Dec The Callaghan ministry survives a vote of no confidence[4]
11 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 48% 6% 5.5%
7 Dec NOP N/A 47.9% 44.7% 4.6% 3.2%
13 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 48% 43% 6.5% 5%
9 Nov NOP N/A 46.8% 44.8% 6.2% 2%
8 Nov MORI N/A 46% 47% 5% 1%
26 Oct Pontefract and Castleford & Berwick and East Lothian by-elections
23 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 47.5% 42% 7.5% 5.5%
12 Oct NOP N/A 48.5% 44.2% 4.7% 4.3%
11 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 49.5% 6% 7%
11 Sep MORI N/A 42% 48% 8% 6%
7 Sep The Lib-Lab pact ends[5]
5 Sep NOP N/A 45.8% 48% 4.8% 2.2%
4 Sep MORI N/A 45% 47% 5% 2%
14 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 47.5% 43.5% 6% 4%
14 Aug MORI N/A 44% 47% 6% 3%
9 Aug NOP N/A 48.5% 42.4% 6.3% 6.1%
17 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43% 45% 8.5% 2%
13 Jul Penistone & Manchester Moss Side by-elections
11 Jul MORI N/A 41% 49% 6% 8%
5 Jul NOP N/A 44.4% 46.5% 6.3% 2.1%
30 Jun MORI N/A 42% 48% 6% 6%
14 Jun NOP N/A 42.3% 49.1% 6.3% 6.8%
13 Jun MORI N/A 45% 46% 6% 1%
12 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45.5% 45.5% 6% Tie
31 May Hamilton by-election
24 May MORI N/A 46% 45% 6% 1%
15 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43.5% 43.5% 8.5% Tie
9 May NOP N/A 48% 43.1% 7% 4.9%
2–4 May 1978 local elections[6]
27 Apr Wycombe & Epsom and Ewell by-elections
20 Apr Lambeth Central by-election
17 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43.5% 45.5% 7.5% 2%
13 Apr MORI N/A 44% 46% 7% 2%
13 Apr Glasgow Garscadden by-election
12 Apr NOP N/A 44.5% 46.2% 6.6% 1.7%
20 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 48% 8% 7%
8 Mar NOP N/A 45.6% 44.6% 7.3% 1%
2 Mar Ilford North by election
15 Feb NOP N/A 44.6% 45.3% 7.1% 0.7%
13 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39% 48% 9% 9%
18 Jan NOP 45.5% 44% 7.5% 1.5%
16 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43.5% 43.5% 8.5% Tie

1977[]

Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
14 Dec NOP N/A 48.8% 40.8% 7% 8%
12 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44.5% 44% 8% 0.5%
7 Dec NOP N/A 44.1% 44.6% 7.5% 0.5%
30 Nov NOP N/A 47.5% 43.2% 6.3% 4.3%
24 Nov Bournemouth East by election
23 Nov NOP N/A 44.3% 46.7% 6.2% 2.4%
16 Nov NOP N/A 48.5% 42.5% 6.2% 6%
14 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 45.5% 8.5% 3.5%
9 Nov NOP N/A 44.1% 45.5% 7% 1.4%
26 Oct NOP N/A 43% 46.7% 6.9% 3.7%
26 Oct MORI N/A 44% 45% 7% 1%
24 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45% 45% 8% Tie
19 Oct NOP N/A 45.8% 44.1% 7.3% 1.7%
22 Sep MORI N/A 42% 49% 5% 7%
14 Sep NOP N/A 41.8% 48% 7.3% 6.2%
12 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 45.5% 8.5% 4.5%
18 Aug Birmingham Ladywood by election
15 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37.5% 48.5% 9% 11%
10 Aug NOP N/A 38.2% 51.3% 7.1% 13.1%
18 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34.5% 49% 10.5% 14.5%
13 Jul NOP N/A 35.1% 53.1% 8.4% 18%
7 Jul Saffron Walden by election
22 Jun NOP N/A 37.1% 49.1% 10.8% 12%
13 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 47.5% 10.5% 10.5%
16 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33% 53.5% 8.5% 20.5%
11 May NOP N/A 36.9% 52.9% 7.2% 16%
3–18 May 1977 local elections[7][8][9]
2 May NOP N/A 41% 48.3% 6.6% 7.3%
28 Apr Grimsby & Ashfield by-elections
20 Apr NOP N/A 38.3% 49.4% 9.1% 11.1%
18 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33.5% 49% 11.5% 15.5%
31 Mar Birmingham Stechford by-election
23 Mar NOP N/A 35.7% 50.9% 9.7% 15.2%
23 Mar The Lib–Lab pact is formed[10][11]
14 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33% 49.5% 13% 16.5%
28 Feb MORI N/A 38% 47% 12% 9%
24 Feb City of London and Westminster South by-election
23 Feb NOP N/A 37.4% 47.3% 10.9% 9.9%
16 Feb NOP N/A 36.1% 50.2% 10% 14.1%
14 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33.5% 46% 14% 12.5%
26 Jan NOP N/A 36.8% 48.4% 10.2% 11.6%
17 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34% 47% 14.5% 13%
2 Jan NOP N/A 35.1% 50% 11.2%% 14.9%

1976[]

Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
14 Dec NOP N/A 38.4% 47.9% 10.6% 9.5%
2 Dec Cambridge by-election
13 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34% 49.5% 11.5% 15.5%
28 Nov NOP N/A 31.3% 55.2% 9.4% 23.9%
15 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 30% 55% 11.5% 25%
7 Nov NOP N/A 38.2% 49.3% 9.3% 11.1%
4 Nov Workington, Walsall North and Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central by-elections
18 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36.5% 48% 11.5% 11.5%
17 Oct NOP N/A 34.9% 53.4% 8.3% 18.5%
10 Oct NOP N/A 35.9% 50.7% 9.5% 14.8%
26 Sep NOP N/A 39.6% 45.6% 9.9% 6%
20 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 42.5% 11% 0.5%
12 Sep NOP N/A 40.5% 46.5% 9.1% 6%
22 Aug NOP N/A 43.3% 43.9% 9.3% 0.6%
16 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 44% 10% 3%
18 Jul NOP N/A 43.5% 43.6% 8.7% 0.1%
15 Jul Thurrock by-election
12 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 41% 13% Tie
11 Jul NOP N/A 44.1% 42.1% 9.5% 2%
7 Jul David Steel is elected leader of the Liberal Party[12]
24 Jun Rotherham by-election
14 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 44% 11% 3.5%
10 Jun NOP N/A 41.2% 45.8% 8.8% 4.6%
23 May NOP N/A 43% 44.7% 8.3% 1.7%
17 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 44% 10.5% 3%
16 May NOP N/A 41.5% 46.5% 8.3% 5%
6 May 1976 local elections[13]
28 Apr NOP N/A 46.1% 41.7% 8.4% 4.4%
12 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46.5% 41% 9% 5.5%
11 Apr NOP N/A 44.7% 43.6% 9% 1.1%
9 Apr MORI N/A 46% 40% 10% 6%
5 Apr James Callaghan is elected leader of the Labour Party
and becomes Prime Minister[14]
19 Mar MORI N/A 47% 40% 9% 7%
15 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 44% 9.5% 2.5%
14 Mar NOP N/A 41.7% 46% 8.8% 4.3%
11 Mar Wirral & Carshalton by-elections
4 Mar Coventry North West by-election
16 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 45.5% 10.5% 5%
25 Jan NOP N/A 42.8% 42% 11.3% 0.8%
22 Jan NOP N/A 40.5% 43.9% 11.4% 3.4%
19 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 40.5% 14% 1.5%

1975[]

Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
16 Dec NOP N/A 38.3% 45.4% 11.7% 7.1%
16 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 40.5% 14% 0.5%
30 Nov NOP N/A 37.4% 44.5% 14.9% 7.1%
17 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44.5% 39% 12.5% 5.5%
16 Nov NOP N/A 41.2% 43.6% 12.7% 2.4%
30 Oct NOP N/A 41.5% 43.4% 11.8% 1.9%
20 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 42.5% 13.5% 2%
22 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 38.5% 16.5% 3%
7 Sep NOP N/A 40.8% 45.7% 10.3% 4.9%
18 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 40.5% 14% 1.5%
17 Aug NOP N/A 40.3% 44.4% 11.6% 4.1%
14 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 43% 12.5% 2.5%
29 Jun NOP N/A 37.2% 48.8% 10.4% 11.6%
26 Jun Woolwich West by-election
16 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 44% 13% 3.5%
5 Jun The United Kingdom votes "Yes" to staying in the European Community[15]
1 Jun NOP N/A 43.6% 42% 10.7% 1.6%
19 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39.5% 45.5% 11% 6%
11 May NOP N/A 40.2% 42.9% 13% 2.7%
1 May 1975 local elections[16]
27 Apr NOP N/A 43.5% 42.4% 10.9% 1.1%
14 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45% 43% 10% 2%
6 Apr NOP N/A 43.3% 44.8% 9.1% 1.5%
17 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44% 42% 11% 2%
2 Mar NOP N/A 46.4% 40.8% 10.3% 5.6%
17 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 45% 11% 4%
11 Feb Margaret Thatcher is elected leader of the Conservative Party[17][18]
9 Feb NOP N/A 46% 38.6% 11.1% 7.4%
2 Feb NOP N/A 43.8% 38.1% 14.6% 5.7%
19 Jan NOP N/A 47.8% 32.4% 15.9% 15.4%
13 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 48.5% 34% 13% 14.5%

1974[]

Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
16 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 47% 33% 16.5% 14%
1 Dec NOP N/A 47.7% 38.4% 11.1% 9.3%
18 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46.5% 35% 14.5% 11.5%
27 Oct NOP N/A 43.7% 36.6% 15.1% 7.1%
10 Oct Oct 1974 general election 39.2% 35.8% 18.3% 3.4%

References[]

  1. ^ "UK Polling Report". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 2019-12-16.
  2. ^ Aikten, Ian (29 March 1979). "Labour fall by one vote". The Guardian.
  3. ^ Jenkins, Peter (15 February 1979). "Pay later deal in Callaghan's survival kit". The Guardian.
  4. ^ Aikten, Ian; Harper, Keith (15 December 1978). "Callaghan home by 10 Votes". The Guardian.
  5. ^ Aikten, Ian (8 September 1978). "Callaghan gambles on finding new Allies". The Guardian.
  6. ^ Jordan, Philip (5 May 1978). "Labour slips in London after gains in North". The Guardian.
  7. ^ Hetherington, Peter (4 May 1977). "Big gains for SNP but Glasgow is split". The Guardian.
  8. ^ Jordan, Philip (6 May 1977). "Massive swing gives Tories the cities". The Guardian.
  9. ^ McHardy, Anne; Wainwright, Martin (19 May 1977). "Shots fired in Ulster poll". The Guardian.
  10. ^ "Joint Statement on the Lib-Lab Pact: Steel and Callaghan – Liberal History". Liberal History. 24 March 1977. Retrieved 16 July 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  11. ^ Aikten, Ian (24 March 1977). "Liberal deal strains Left". The Guardian.
  12. ^ Hoggart, Simon (8 July 1976). "Smith snub victor Steel". The Guardian.
  13. ^ Lewis, James (7 May 1976). "Tories gain – but no landslide". The Guardian.
  14. ^ Aikten, Ian (6 April 1976). "Callaghan puts his trust in the people". The Guardian.
  15. ^ McKie, David (7 June 1975). "Anatomy of a Landslide". The Guardian.
  16. ^ Johnson, Dennis (2 May 1975). "Tories weaken Labour grip". The Guardian.
  17. ^ Aikten, Ian (12 February 1975). "First lady will put Tories right". The Guardian.
  18. ^ Parry, Gareth (12 February 2015). "From the archive, 12 February 1975: Dreamy, says Thatcher, the new chief Tory". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
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