2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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  Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped).jpg Amy McGrath Event- (49220643717) 1.jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,233,315 816,257
Percentage 57.8% 38.2%

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
County results
McConnell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McGrath:      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.[2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try and defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

  • Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator[3][4]

Eliminated in primary[]

  • Nicholas Alsager[5]
  • Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[5] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)[6]
  • Louis Grider, truck driver[5]
  • Neren James[5]
  • Kenneth Lowndes[5]
  • Wesley Morgan, former state representative[7]

Withdrawn[]

  • Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur[5][8] (remained on ballot)
  • Karl Das[9][8]

Results[]

Results by county:
  McConnell—>90%
  McConnell—80–90%
  McConnell—70–80%
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 342,660 82.80%
Republican Wesley Morgan 25,588 6.18%
Republican Louis Grider 13,771 3.33%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis 11,957 2.89%
Republican Neren James 10,693 2.58%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes 5,548 1.34%
Republican Nicholas Alsager 3,603 0.87%
Total votes 413,820 100.0%

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

Eliminated in primary[]

Representative Charles Booker placed second in the Democratic primary.
  • Charles Booker, state representative[13][14]
  • Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine[15]
  • Maggie Joe Hilliard[5]
  • Andrew Maynard[5]
  • Eric Rothmuller, small business owner[16]
  • John R. Sharpensteen[5]
  • Bennie J. Smith, local business owner[17]
  • Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky[18]

Withdrawn[]

  • Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[19] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[20] (remained on ballot)
  • Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[21] (endorsed Charles Booker)[22]
  • Joshua Paul Edwards[23][8]
  • Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[9][8]
  • Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[24][8]

Declined[]

  • Rocky Adkins, former Minority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[25]
  • Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former Attorney General of Kentucky, and son of former Governor Steve Beshear[26][27][28]
  • Steve Beshear, former Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[26]
  • Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015[26]
  • Adam Edelen, former State Auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[26]
  • Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[29]
  • Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former Mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[30]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[26] (endorsed Booker)
  • Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)[31][32]

Campaign[]

There were debates on March 5, 2020[33][34] and June 1, 2020.[35][36]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Charles
Booker
Amy
McGrath
Other Undecided
Data for Progress[A] June 10–22, 2020 556 (LV) 43% 46% 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[B] June 16–18, 2020 32% 42%
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 421 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 36% 9%[b] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] June 8–12, 2020 313 (RV) ± 7.0% 39% 49% 6%[c] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] May 2020 [d] 13% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] April 2020 [d] 11% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] January 2020 [d] 7% 65%

Endorsements[]

Charles Booker
U.S. Senators
  • Jesse Jackson Sr., former Shadow U.S. Senator from the District of Columbia (1991–1997), 1988 and 1984 candidate for president, founder of Rainbow/PUSH[37]
  • Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont, 2016 and 2020 candidate for president[38]
U.S. Representatives
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative for NY-14[39]
State legislators
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes, former Secretary of State of Kentucky (2012–2020); Democratic nominee for Kentucky's U.S. Senate election in 2014[40]
  • Gerald Neal, Kentucky State Senator[41]
  • Reggie Thomas, Kentucky State Senator[41]
Newspapers
Unions
  • Association of Flight Attendants[44]
  • National Nurses United[45]
Organizations and political parties
Mike Broihier
State and local officials from other states
  • Richard Ojeda, West Virginia State Senator for the 7th district (2016–2019); 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate candidate[49]
Individuals
  • Marianne Williamson, author, peace activist, spiritual leader, 2020 presidential candidate[50]
  • Andrew Yang, author, entrepreneur, and 2020 presidential candidate[51]
Organizations
  • Indivisible Kentucky, progressive advocacy organization[52]
Amy McGrath
Organizations

Results[]

Results by county:
  McGrath—60–70%
  McGrath—50–60%
  McGrath—40–50%
  Booker—40–50%
  Booker—50–60%
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amy McGrath 247,037 45.41%
Democratic Charles Booker 231,888 42.62%
Democratic Mike Broihier 27,175 4.99%
Democratic Mary Ann Tobin 11,108 2.04%
Democratic Maggie Joe Hilliard 6,224 1.14%
Democratic Andrew Maynard 5,974 1.10%
Democratic Bennie J. Smith 5,040 0.93%
Democratic Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) 3,629 0.67%
Democratic Eric Rothmuller 2,995 0.55%
Democratic John R. Sharpensteen 2,992 0.55%
Total votes 544,062 100.0%

Other candidates[]

Libertarian primary[]

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.[59][60] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[61]

Nominee[]

  • Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[62]

Reform Party[]

Withdrawn[]

Independents[]

Declared[]

  • Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate)[6]
  • Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate)[6]
  • Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)[6]
  • Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)[6]
  • Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)[6]

Withdrawn[]

  • Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65[64][8]

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Likely R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[66] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] Likely R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[68] Safe R October 30, 2020
Politico[69] Likely R November 2, 2020
RCP[70] Likely R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[71] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[72] Safe R November 2, 2020
Economist[73] Likely R November 2, 2020

Endorsements[]

Amy McGrath (D)
U.S. Senators
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, United States Senator from New York (2009–present); former 2020 presidential candidate[74]
  • Kamala Harris, United States Senator from California (2017–2021) [75]
U.S. Representatives
State officials
  • Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky [77]
Individuals
  • Ann Coulter, media pundit[78] (Republican)
  • Alex Kurtzman, producer, writer and director[79]
Organizations
  • Council for a Livable World[53]
  • DSCC[54]
  • Feminist Majority PAC[55]
  • Giffords[56]
  • J Street PAC[57]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[80]
  • VoteVets.org[58]
Unions
  • International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[81]
  • Kentucky AFL-CIO[82]
  • National Education Association[83]
  • Service Employees International Union 1199 WV/KY/OH[84]
  • United Auto Workers[85]

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Polls[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
Brad
Barron (L)
Other /
Undecided
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 23 – November 1, 2020 365 (LV) ± 7.9% 49% 46% 5%
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 911 (LV) ± 3% 51% 40%
Bluegrass Community & Technical College October 12–28, 2020 250 (RV) 50% 40% 10%[e]
Cygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 40% 5% 5%[f]
Mason-Dixon October 12–15, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 51% 42% 4% 3%[g]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 746 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 52% 37%
Data for Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%[h] 39% 3% 12%[i]
48%[j] 41% 11%[k]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 41% 5%[l]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 909 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 44% 7%[m]
Bluegrass Data (D)[D] July 25–29, 2020 3,020 (RV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 4%
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 793 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 36% 12%[n]
Spry Strategies (R)[E] July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 33% 12%[i]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] July 7–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 7% 7%[o]
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 33% 4% 11%[p]
RMG Research[F] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 41% 19%[q]
Bluegrass Data (D)[D] April 7–12, 2020[r] 4,000 (RV) 40% 38% 7%
Change Research (D)[B] January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] January 813, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% 17%
Fabrizio Ward[G] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 6%
Change Research (D)[B] June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) 47% 45% 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Charles Booker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Charles
Booker (D)
Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 38% 9%[s]
with Jim Gray
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Jim
Gray (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% 10%
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) 47% 44% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] Aug 15–16, 2017 645 (V) 37% 44% 19%
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 62% 8%[t]
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 32% 61% 8%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Cygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 39% 6%[u]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 54% 38% 8%[v]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 13%[w]

Results[]

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.[86] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea since,—"at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."[87]

McConnell flipped seven of the ten counties that he had not won in 2014, with Bath, Elliott, Marion, Menifee, Nicholas, Rowan and Wolfe counties all flipping.[88][89]

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky[90]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 1,233,315 57.76% +1.57%
Democratic Amy McGrath 816,257 38.23% -2.49%
Libertarian Brad Barron 85,386 4.00% +0.92%
Write-in 99 0.01% -0.00%
Total votes 2,135,057 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

See also[]

  • 2020 Kentucky elections

Notes[]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll released after the primary in July
  2. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
  3. ^ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. ^ a b c Not yet released
  5. ^ Undecided with 10%
  6. ^ Undecided with 5%
  7. ^ Undecided with 3%
  8. ^ Standard VI response
  9. ^ a b Undecided with 12%
  10. ^ If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
  11. ^ Undecided with 11%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  14. ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
  15. ^ Undecided with 7%
  16. ^ "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  17. ^ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  18. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  19. ^ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  20. ^ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  21. ^ Undecided with 6%
  22. ^ Undecided with 8%
  23. ^ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

References[]

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  84. ^ "Primary and General Election Endorsements". January 27, 2020.
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  87. ^ Bolton, Alexander (November 12, 2020). "McConnell treads cautiously in Trump's post-election fight". The Hill. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
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  89. ^ "Kentucky U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
  90. ^ "November 3, 2020 – Official 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. November 20, 2020. p. 10. Retrieved November 21, 2020.

External links[]

campaign websites
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