2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
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 County results Peters: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% James: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Michigan |
|---|
 |
 Detroit |
 Grand Rapids |
The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Gary Peters was one of two Democratic U.S. Senators up for re-election in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2016; the other was Doug Jones from Alabama.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2] The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] The election was considered a potential upset pickup by the Republicans due to the state's demographic trends, incumbent Trump's upset win in 2016, and Republican candidate John James's outperformance of polling expectations despite losing the state's Senate election in 2018. However, most experts still believed Peters to be the more likely winner.
Peters won re-election to a second term, though by a closer margin than expected.[5] James, who outperformed Trump on the same ballot, initially refused to concede,[6] baselessly claiming in a statement published to his campaign website two days after the election that he had been "cheated" out of winning the election. The statement alleged, without evidence, that there were "deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat[s]"."[7] On November 24, James conceded the race exactly three weeks after election day.[8] With a margin of 1.68%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle, behind only the regularly-scheduled election in Georgia.
Democratic primary[]
Candidates[]
Nominee[]
Declined[]
- Abdul El-Sayed, former executive director of the Detroit Department of Health and Wellness Promotion and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2018[11]
Endorsements[]
Gary Peters
- Organizations
- Clean Water Action[12]
- Council for a Livable World[13]
- End Citizens United[14]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Giffords[16]
- Human Rights Campaign[17]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[18]
- League of Conservation Voters[19]\
- Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus [20]
- Michigan Education Association[21]
- Michigan Realtors[22]
- National Organization for Women[23]
- Peace Action[24]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[25]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[26]
- Population Connection[27]
- Progressive Women's Alliance of West Michigan [28]
- Sierra Club[29]
- VoteVets[30]
- Voter Protection Project[31]
Democratic primary results[]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Peters (incumbent) | 1,180,780 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 1,180,780 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary[]
Candidates[]
Nominee[]
- John James, businessman, Iraq War veteran and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[33]
Disqualified[]
- Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and perennial candidate[34][35]
- Valerie Willis, write-in candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan[36][35] (switched to U.S. Taxpayers candidacy)[37]
Declined[]
- Tom Leonard, former Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives and nominee for Michigan Attorney General in 2018[38]
- Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner and former U.S. Representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district[39]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[38]
- Bill Schuette, former Michigan Attorney General and nominee for Governor of Michigan in 2018[40] (endorsed John James)[41]
- Rick Snyder, former Governor of Michigan[42]
Endorsements[]
John James
- Individuals
- Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the Republican National Committee[43]
Polling[]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John James |
Bill Schuette |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schuette announces that he will not run by endorsing James | ||||||
| Target Insyght | April 22–25, 2019 | 296 (LV)[b] | – | 59% | 15% | 26% |
Results[]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John James | 1,005,315 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 1,005,315 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates[]
Communist Party[]
Withdrawn[]
Green Party[]
Nominee[]
- Marcia Squier (2018 Green Party nominee for US Senate)[46]
Natural Law Party[]
Nominee[]
- Doug Dern[37]
U.S. Taxpayers Party[]
Nominee[]
- Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[37]
Independents[]
- Leonard Gadzinski[47]
Withdrawn[]
General election[]
Predictions[]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[48] | Lean D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[49] | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[50] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[51] | Lean D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[52] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[53] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[54] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[55] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[56] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements[]
Gary Peters (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch Officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009-2017)
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009-2017), 2020 Democratic nominee for President of the United States
- U.S. Senators
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[57]
- Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator from Vermont[58]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts[59]
- Organizations
- Black Economic Alliance[60]
- Center for Biological Diversity[61]
- Clean Water Action[12]
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC[62]
- Council for a Livable World[13]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[63]
- Detroit Free Press[64]
- End Citizens United[14]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[65]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Fems for Dems[66]
- Giffords[16]
- Human Rights Campaign[17]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[18]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[67]
- League of Conservation Voters[19]
- Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus[20]
- Michigan Education Association[21]
- National Association of Social Workers[68]
- National Committee for an Effective Congress[69]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[70]
- National Education Association[71]
- National Organization for Women[23]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[72]
- Peace Action[24]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[25]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[26]
- Population Connection[27]
- Progressive Turnout Project[73]
- Progressive Women's Alliance of West Michigan[28]
- Sierra Club[29]
- VoteVets[30]
- Voter Protection Project[31]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 25[74]
- American Federation of Teachers - Michigan[75]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers[76]
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[77]
- Michigan AFL–CIO[78]
- Michigan Building and Construction Trades Council[76]
- Michigan Laborers' District Council[79]
- Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters[76]
- Michigan Nurses Association[76]
- Service Employees International Union Healthcare Michigan[76]
- United Auto Workers[80]
- Newspapers
John James (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch Officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[81]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[82]
- Nikki Haley, 29th United States Ambassador to the United Nations & 116th Governor of South Carolina[83]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. Representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district[84]
- Newspapers
- The Alpena News[85]
- The Daily Mining Gazette[85]
- Daily Press[85]
- The Detroit News[86]
- Washington Examiner[87]
- Individuals
- Kirstie Alley, actress[88]
- Ronna McDaniel, Republican National Committee chair[43]
- Donald Trump Jr., son of United States President Donald Trump[89]
- Organizations
- American Conservative Union[90]
- Family Research Council Action[91]
- FreedomWorks[90]
- Huck PAC[92]
- Michigan Chamber of Commerce[93]
- Michigan Farm Bureau[94]
- National Federation of Independent Business[92]
- National Rifle Association[92]
- National Right to Life Committee[92]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[90]
- Susan B. Anthony List[92]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[92]
Polling[]
Graphical summary[]
Aggregate polls[]
| John James vs. Gary Peters | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Gary Peters | John James | Other/Undecided[c] | Margin |
| 270 To Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 42.2% | 8.0% | Peters +7.6 |
| Real Clear Politics | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 44.4% | 5.8% | Peters +5.4 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
John James (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 37% | 12%[d] |
| Change Research/CNBC | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.01% | 51% | 46% | 3%[e] |
| Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 393 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 654 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 44% | 5%[f] |
| Ipsos/Reuters | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 654 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 44% | 5%[g] |
| Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 1,736 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 43% | – |
| Emerson College | October 29–30, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52%[h] | 46% | 2%[i] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 29–30, 2020 | 745 (V) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 44% | 2%[j] |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | October 25–30, 2020 | 993 (LV) | – | 54% | 43% | 2%[k] |
| CNN/SSRS | October 23–30, 2020 | 907 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 40% | 7%[l] |
| Mitchell Research (R) | October 29, 2020 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.43% | 50% | 45% | 5%[m] |
| RMG Research | October 27–29, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50%[n] | 41% | 9%[o] |
| 52%[p] | 39% | 9%[q] | ||||
| 48%[r] | 42% | 9%[s] | ||||
| EPIC-MRA | October 25–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 42% | 11%[t] |
| Kiaer Research | October 21–28, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 51% | 38% | 11%[u] |
| Mitchell Research (R) | October 25–27, 2020 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.56% | 52% | 43% | 3%[v] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[B] | October 24–26, 2020[w] | – (V)[x] | ± 4.3% | 48% | 46% | 1%[y] |
| Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 23–26, 2020 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 41% | 8%[z] |
| Ipsos/Reuters | October 20–26, 2020 | 652 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 44% | 6%[aa] |
| Glengariff Group | October 23–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 39% | 9%[ab] |
| ABC/Washington Post | October 20–25, 2020 | 789 (LV) | ± 4% | 52% | 46% | 2%[ac] |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24, 2020 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 41% | 7%[ad] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[C] | October 21–22, 2020 | 804 (V) | – | 52% | 43% | 6%[ae] |
| Citizen Data | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12%[af] |
| FOX News | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,032 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 9%[ag] |
| Reuters/Ipsos | October 14–20, 2020 | 686 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 45% | 5%[ah] |
| Morning Consult | October 11–20, 2020 | 1,717 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 42% | – |
| Change Research/CNBC | October 16–19, 2020 | 718 (LV)[ai] | – | 50% | 45% | – |
| EPIC-MRA | October 15–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | 16%[aj] |
| Mitchell Research (R) | October 18, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 49% | 43% | 8%[ak] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC (Hyperpartisan)[95][96][96][D] | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 48% | 50% | 3%[al] |
| Data For Progress | October 15–18, 2020 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 43% | 9%[am] |
| HarrisX/The Hill | October 12–15, 2020 | 1,289 (LV) | – | 50%[an] | 43% | – |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | October 11–15, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 47% | 48% | 5%[ao] |
| Reuters/Ipsos | October 7–13, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 44% | 4%[ap] |
| EPIC-MRA | October 8–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | 16%[aq] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 6–11, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 42% | 15%[ar] |
| Morning Consult | October 2–11, 2020 | 1,710 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 40% | – |
| YouGov/CBS | October 6–9, 2020 | 1,181 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 44% | 9%[as] |
| Baldwin Wallace University | September 30 – October 8, 2020 | 1,134 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 42% | 10%[at] |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2020 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 41% | 8%[au] |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[E] | October 3–6, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[av] | 42% | 8%[aw] |
| Reuters/Ipsos | September 29 – October 6, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 43% | 7%[ax] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[B] | October 3–5, 2020 | 605 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 46% | – |
| Change Research/CNBC | October 2–4, 2020 | 676 (LV) | – | 51% | 43% | 6%[ay] |
| Glengariff Group | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 40% | 16%[az] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 746 (V) | – | 48% | 41% | 10%[ba] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC (Hyperpartisan)[97][G] | September 26–28, 2020 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 48% | 47% | 5%[bb] |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | September 23–25, 2020 | 1,047 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 47% | 47% | 6%[bc] |
| Marist College/NBC | September 19–23, 2020 | 799 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 44% | 7%[bd] |
| Baldwin Wallace University | September 9–22, 2020 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Change Research/CNBC | September 18–20, 2020 | 568 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | 5%[be] |
| Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,376 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 47%[bf] | 40% | – |
| Hart Research Associates (D)[H] | September 17–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 42% | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 42% | 12%[bg] |
| Marketing Resource Group (R) | September 14–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 20%[bh] |
| Morning Consult | September 8–17, 2020 | 1,451 (LV)[bi] | ± (2% – 4%) | 48% | 40% | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters | September 11–16, 2020 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | 7%[bj] |
| EPIC-MRA | September 10–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 41% | 14%[bk] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–14, 2020 | 930 (LV) | ± 3.21% | 51% | 35% | 13%[bl] |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[I] | August 28 – September 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14%[bm] |
| Change Research/CNBC | September 4–6, 2020 | 876 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 5%[bn] |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 2–3, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 13%[bo] |
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News | September 1–3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 14%[bp] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[B] | September 1–3, 2020 | 569 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7%[bq] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 38% | 12%[br] |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[E] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[bs] | 42% | 8%[bt] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | August 28–29, 2020 | 897 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 14%[bu] |
| Change Research/CNBC | August 21–23, 2020 | 809 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | 6%[bv] |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | August 14–23, 2020 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5%[bw] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 16–18, 2020 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 39% | 13%[bx] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[J](Hyperpartisan)[98] | August 11–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 53% | 39% | 8%[by] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[B] | August 10–13, 2020 | 602 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Change Research/CNBC | August 7–9, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 45% | 7%[bz] |
| EPIC-MRA | July 25–30, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10%[ca] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 28–29, 2020 | 876 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 13%[cb] |
| Change Research/CNBC | July 24–26, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 35% | 16% |
| CNN/SSRS | July 18–24, 2020 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 38% | 8%[cc] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 811 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 35% | 13%[cd] |
| Gravis Marketing[99] | July 22, 2020 | 754 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 39% | 11%[ce] |
| Marketing Resource Group (R) | July 19–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 26%[cf] |
| FOX News | July 18–20, 2020 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 38% | 15%[cg] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[100] | July 13–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 9%[ch] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[K] | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | 15%[ci] |
| Change Research/CNBC | July 10–12, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | 6%[cj] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[L] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Change Research/CNBC | June 26–28, 2020 | 699 (LV)[ck] | ± 3.9% | 49% | 42% | 9%[cl] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | June 26–27, 2020 | 1,237 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 14%[cm] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[101][102][102][103][104][105][106][107][98][100] | June 17–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 38% | 12%[cn] |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–17, 2020 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 29%[co] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–16, 2020 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 32% | 18%[cp] |
| Marketing Resource Group (R) | June 12–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 30% | 33%[cq] |
| American Greatness/TIPP (R) | June 9–12, 2020 | 907 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 35% | 17%[cr] |
| Kiaer Research | May 31 – June 7, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 48% | 32% | 20%[cs] |
| EPIC-MRA | May 30 – June 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 36% | 13%[ct] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | May 29–30, 2020 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | 13%[cu] |
| Change Research/Crooked Media | May 11–17, 2020 | 3,070 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [108][109][109][110][111][112][113][114][99][101][96] | May 1–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 36% | 17%[cv] |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 28–29, 2020 | 1,270 (V) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| FOX News | April 18–21, 2020 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 36% | 13% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[115] | April 9–18, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 31 – April 1, 2020 | 1,019 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | March 30 – April 1, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[116][117][117][118][119][120][121][122][101][103][98] | March 12–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R) | March 16–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 35% | 17%[cw] |
| Firehouse/0ptimus | March 5–7, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 41% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 12–18, 2020 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 39% | 15% |
| Baldwin Wallace University | January 8–20, 2020 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Glengariff Group | January 3–7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Emerson College | October 31 – November 3, 2019 | 1,051 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[123] | October 10–16, 2019[cx] | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R) | October 7–10, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Target-Insyght/MIRS News | September 24–26, 2019 | 804 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D) | September 21–24, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Target Insyght | April 22–25, 2019 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2019 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 43% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.
- with Bob Carr and John James
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
Bob Carr (R) |
John James (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes | March 17–25, 2020 | 822 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 6%[cy] | 27% | 28% |
- with Bill Schuette
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
Bill Schuette (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Insyght | April 22–25, 2019 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 32% | 17% |
- with Gary Peters and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D) | May 8–10, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 21% |
- with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG | Jun 12–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 19.2% | 30.3%[cz] | 50.5% |
- with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News | October 23–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 41% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters | September 11–16, 2020 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2%[da] | 8%[db] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[M] | August 11–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[100] | July 13–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | – | 13% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | June 17–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 34% | – | 15% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) | May 1–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 38% | 15%[dc] | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) | April 9–18, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16%[dd] | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) | March 12–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 12%[de] | – |
General results[]
Polls indicated that the race would be close with Peters leading in most polls. In 2018, Michigan voters approved 'no reason required' absentee balloting.[124] The COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of absentee voters.[125] Michigan law does not allow for early tabulating of absentee ballots,[126] so the absentee ballots were tabulated after completing the tabulating of ballots from polling places. This created a 'mirage' effect because more Republicans voted on Election Day and more Democrats voted by absentee ballot.[127] James was ahead when the counting of Election Day ballots was completed. When the absentee ballots were tabulated and with 98% of the votes counted, Peters was declared the winner by a tight margin of one percentage point after a day of waiting.[128] When the results were certified on November 23, Peters' margin of victory was 1.68%.[129]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Peters (incumbent) | 2,734,568 | 49.90% | -4.71% | |
| Republican | John James | 2,642,233 | 48.22% | +6.89% | |
| Constitution | Valerie Willis | 50,597 | 0.92% | -0.28% | |
| Green | Marcia Squier | 39,217 | 0.72% | -0.12% | |
| Natural Law | Doug Dern | 13,093 | 0.24% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 12 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 5,479,720 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Gary Peters winning the election.[131]
Litigation[]
After Peters took the lead in the election on the 4th, James refused to concede the race. The following day, James claimed that he had been cheated out of winning the election in a statement published to his campaign website. The statement said that there were "[...] deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat" and that "[...] there is enough credible evidence to warrant an investigation to ensure that elections were conducted in a transparent, legal and fair manner."[7] A lawyer for James' campaign alleged that fraud was committed at the TCF Center, which the Trump campaign had also attempted to claim in a dismissed lawsuit.[6][132][133] James conceded the election to Peters on November 24.[134]
See also[]
- 2020 Michigan elections
Notes[]
- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 10%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%; Did not vote and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Squier (G) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
- ^ Squier (G) with 3%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ Standard VI response
- ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Third party" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- ^ "Other/third party" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
- ^ Undecided with 3%
- ^ Additional details sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ Undecided with 1%
- ^ Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "Someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- ^ Undecided with 9%
- ^ "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 1%
- ^ Undecided with 7%
- ^ Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
- ^ Undecided with 8%
- ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
- ^ Undecided with 9%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
- ^ Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 13%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- ^ Undecided with 10%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ Did/would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 3%
- ^ "Do not recall" with 1%; "Did not vote" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Third Party" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
- ^ Squier (G) with 3%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 3%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Undecided with 12%
- ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
- ^ Squier (G) with 2%; Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 1%; Dern (Natural Law) and "someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
- ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- ^ Undecided with 14%
- ^ "Other candidates" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ Squier (G) with 4%; Undecided with 10%
- ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ "Another party candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
- ^ "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 12%
- ^ Undecided with 8%
- ^ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ "Undecided/refused" with 10%
- ^ "Third party" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
- ^ "None of the above/neither" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
- ^ Undecided with 11%
- ^ "Someone else" with 14%; "refused" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 12%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 10%
- ^ Undecided with 9%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%; Undecided with 8%
- ^ Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
- ^ Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
- ^ Undecided with 12%
- ^ Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- ^ Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
- ^ Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
- ^ Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- ^ Undecided with 17%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
- ^ "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
- ^ "Candidate from another party" with 2%
- ^ "Prefer not to answer/refused" with 7%; "will not vote/not sure" with 1%
- ^ "Independent/Undecided" with 15%
- ^ "Independent/Undecided" with 16%
- ^ "Independent/Undecided" with 12%
- Partisan clients
- ^ Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for James' campaign.
- ^ Poll sponsored by The American Bridge PAC, which exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
- ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for Progress Michigan, a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates.
- ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
- ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords, which had endorsed Peters prior to the sampling period
- ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
References[]
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- ^ "Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters wins reelection". AP NEWS. November 4, 2020.
- ^ a b Gary Peters says John James' refusal to concede election '...pathetic' Oakland Press
- ^ a b John James: Every vote must count, and elections must be fair and honest" Metro Times
- ^ "John James concedes in Michigan Senate race, congratulates Sen. Gary Peters on reelection". FOX NEWS. November 24, 2020.
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- ^ Citation error. See inline comment how to fix.[verification needed]
- ^ Citation error. See inline comment how to fix.[verification needed]
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- ^ Citation error. See inline comment how to fix.[verification needed]
- ^ Citation error. See inline comment how to fix.[verification needed]
- ^ Citation error. See inline comment how to fix.[verification needed]
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- ^ "2020 Michigan Election Results Official". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- ^ Warikoo, Niraj (November 6, 2020). "Black voters in Detroit key for Joe Biden and Gary Peters' victories, advocates say". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- ^ Trump targets Detroit, falsely claiming he won Michigan The Detroit News
- ^ Judge throws out Trump lawsuit over counting of Michigan ballots Detroit Free Press
- ^ Spangler, Todd. "John James concedes to Peters in Senate race 3 weeks after election". Detroit Free Press.
Further reading[]
- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com
- Jeremy W. Peters; Kathleen Gray (October 19, 2020), "Are Michigan Democrats in Trouble in Their Senate Race?", New York Times
External links[]
- "League of Women Voters of Michigan". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Michigan 2019 & 2020 Elections", Followthemoney.org
- Michigan at Ballotpedia
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Michigan", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Michigan: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- Official campaign websites
Categories:
- United States Senate elections in Michigan
- 2020 United States Senate elections
- 2020 Michigan elections