2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland
Turnout	74.63% 2.65 pp
Biden 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%	Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; Joe Biden; Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

Joe Biden easily carried Maryland 65.4% to 32.2%, a margin of 33.2%, better than Clinton's 26.4% in 2016. Prior to the election, all news organizations considered Maryland "Safe Biden". Maryland has been a Democratic stronghold since 1992.

Biden carried Montgomery, Prince George's, and Baltimore counties, and the city of Baltimore, with 78.6%, 89.3%, 62.3%, and 87.3% of the vote, respectively. He continued the Democrats' longstanding dominance of the Baltimore-Washington axis. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up huge margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it extremely difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. The 2020 election was no different. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest jurisdictions, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes, more than enough to carry the state.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maryland came from 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other demographic groups; winning 52% of Whites, 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics. ^[4]

Biden flipped the Washington, D.C.-area exurban county of Frederick County, as well as Talbot County--home to Easton--Democratic for the first time since 1964.^[5] He also flipped Kent County, located on the Eastern Shore. In a third county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico, Biden failed to prevail but nevertheless held Trump to the first plurality (rather than majority) win for a Republican nominee since 1996.

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland since fellow Democrat Horatio Seymour did marginally better in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run against both President William Howard Taft and New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson. Even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860 did the Republican nominee perform worse in the state than Trump did in 2020.

The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in the Old Line State, the longest such run of declines for either party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Primary elections[]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.^[6]

Republican primary[]

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[7]

Democratic primary[]

2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary^[8]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[9]
Joe Biden	879,753	83.7%	96
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	81,939	7.8%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	27,134	2.6%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	7,180	0.7%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	6,773	0.6%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	6,670	0.6%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	5,685	0.5%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,226	0.4%
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	2,662	0.3%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	2,291	0.2%
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	897	0.1%
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	760	0.1%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	671	0.1%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	406	0.0%
Uncommitted	23,726	2.3%
Total	1,050,773	100%	96

Green primary[]


2020 Maryland Green Party primary^[10]^[11]
Candidate	Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4
Candidate	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Howie Hawkins	34	53.1%	34	61.8%	34	64.15%	34	68%
Dario Hunter	16	25%	16	29.1%	16	30.18%	16	32%
Kent Mesplay	2	3.1%	3	5.5%	3	5.66%	Eliminated
Write-ins	2	3.1%	2	3.6%	Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry	1	1.6%	Eliminated
Empty ballot	9	14.1%	Eliminated
Total votes							64	100.0%

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[12]	Safe D	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections^[13]	Safe D	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[14]	Safe D	July 14, 2020
Politico^[15]	Safe D	September 8, 2020
RCP^[16]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen^[17]	Safe D	July 26, 2020
CNN^[18]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist^[19]	Safe D	September 2, 2020
CBS News^[20]	Likely D	August 16, 2020
270towin^[21]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News^[22]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR^[23]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News^[24]	Safe D	August 6, 2020
538^[25]	Safe D	September 9, 2020

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Aggregate polls[]


Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided ^[a]	Margin
270 to Win	October 7–26 2020	November 3, 2020	60.0%	31.7%	8.3%	Biden +28.3
Real Clear Politics	September 4 – October 24, 2020	November 3, 2020	60.3%	31.0%	8.7%	Biden +29.3
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	63.1%	31.6%	5.3%	Biden +31.4
Average			61.1%	31.4%	7.4%	Biden +29.7

Polls[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	3,216 (LV)	± 2.5%	31%^[c]	66%	–	–	–	–
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020	503 (LV)	± 5.7%	31%	67%	2%	0%	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	5,820 (LV)	–	32%	66%	–	–	–	–
Gonzalez Maryland Poll	Oct 19–24, 2020	820 (RV)	± 3.5%	33%	58%	–	–	3%^[d]	6%
Goucher College	Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020	776 (LV)	± 3.5%	30%	61%	2%	2%	3%^[e]	2%
Change Research/Our Voice Maryland	Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020	650 (V)	± 4.55%	32%	61%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	2,364 (LV)	–	31%	67%	–	–	–	2%
OpinionWorks	Sep 4–11, 2020	753 (LV)	–	30%	62%	–	–	3%^[d]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	1,813 (LV)	–	31%	66%	–	–	–	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	1,911 (LV)	–	32%	66%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	1,175 (LV)	–	34%	64%	–	–	–	2%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll	May 19–23, 2020	810 (LV)	± 3.5%	31%	59%	–	–	–	6%
Goucher College	Feb 13–19, 2020	718 (LV)	± 3.6%	35%	60%	–	–	1%^[f]	4%^[g]

show

Former candidates

show

Hypothetical polling

Results[]

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland^[26]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	1,985,023	65.36%	+5.03%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	976,414	32.15%	-1.76%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	33,488	1.10%	-1.76%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	15,799	0.52%	-0.77%
	Bread and Roses	Jerome Segal John de Graaf	5,884	0.19%	N/A
	Write-in		20,422	0.67%	-0.94%
Total votes			3,037,030	100%

Results by county[]

Independent cities have been italicized.

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Write-in		Howie Hawkins Green		Other votes		Total votes
County	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	Total votes
Allegany	29.89%	9,158	68.16%	20,886	1.01%	308	0.37%	113	0.39%	120	0.18%	56	30,641
Anne Arundel	55.82%	172,823	41.28%	127,821	1.50%	4,652	0.77%	2,398	0.40%	1,247	0.22%	676	309,617
Baltimore City	87.28%	207,260	10.69%	25,374	0.74%	1,761	0.45%	1,064	0.56%	1,338	0.28%	664	237,461
Baltimore County	62.28%	258,409	35.24%	146,202	1.19%	4,927	0.65%	2,705	0.44%	1,820	0.21%	869	414,932
Calvert	45.99%	22,587	51.61%	25,346	1.49%	733	0.51%	249	0.26%	127	0.14%	70	49,112
Caroline	32.26%	5,095	65.11%	10,283	1.45%	229	0.37%	58	0.57%	90	0.25%	39	15,794
Carroll	36.34%	36,456	60.02%	60,218	2.02%	2,028	0.82%	826	0.54%	537	0.26%	262	100,327
Cecil	35.42%	16,809	62.03%	29,439	1.49%	706	0.33%	157	0.48%	229	0.26%	122	47,462
Charles	69.47%	62,171	28.58%	25,579	0.86%	769	0.40%	355	0.46%	408	0.24%	216	89,498
Dorchester	42.92%	6,857	54.85%	8,764	1.09%	174	0.24%	39	0.61%	97	0.29%	46	15,977
Frederick	53.34%	77,675	43.73%	63,682	1.57%	2,282	0.63%	923	0.47%	686	0.25%	367	145,615
Garrett	21.02%	3,281	76.88%	12,002	1.36%	212	0.18%	28	0.41%	64	0.16%	24	15,611
Harford	42.58%	63,095	54.61%	80,930	1.67%	2,473	0.61%	907	0.39%	577	0.14%	204	148,186
Howard	70.70%	129,433	26.43%	48,390	1.35%	2,471	0.90%	1,652	0.43%	785	0.18%	331	183,062
Kent	49.37%	5,329	48.13%	5,195	1.08%	117	0.43%	46	0.63%	68	0.36%	39	10,794
Montgomery	78.61%	419,569	18.96%	101,222	0.80%	4,247	0.71%	3,809	0.58%	3,091	0.34%	1,805	533,743
Prince George's	89.26%	379,208	8.73%	37,090	0.43%	1,810	0.39%	1,639	0.79%	3,349	0.42%	1,759	424,855
Queen Anne's	35.35%	10,709	61.87%	18,741	1.36%	411	0.62%	188	0.54%	164	0.25%	77	30,290
Somerset	41.80%	4,241	56.56%	5,739	0.81%	82	0.26%	26	0.37%	38	0.21%	21	10,147
St. Mary's	41.57%	23,138	55.38%	30,826	2.00%	1,112	0.48%	265	0.36%	200	0.22%	124	55,665
Talbot	49.04%	11,062	48.53%	10,946	1.21%	274	0.66%	149	0.37%	83	0.18%	41	22,555
Washington	38.42%	26,044	59.35%	40,224	1.23%	836	0.35%	236	0.46%	309	0.19%	130	67,779
Wicomico	47.72%	22,054	49.65%	22,944	1.16%	538	0.44%	205	0.63%	292	0.40%	183	46,216
Worcester	39.63%	12,560	58.60%	18,571	1.06%	336	0.38%	120	0.25%	80	0.08%	24	31,691

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick)
Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)

Results by congressional district[]

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. ^[27]

District	Biden	Trump	Representative
1st	39.1%	58.8%	Andy Harris
2nd	65.8%	32.4%	Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd	68.7%	29.4%	John Sarbanes
4th	79.1%	19.2%	Anthony Brown
5th	68.6%	29.7%	Steny Hoyer
6th	60.6%	37.5%	David Trone
7th	78.4%	20%	Kweisi Mfume
8th	69%	28.9%	Jamie Raskin

Notes[]

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ Jump up to: ^a ^b "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Refused" with 3%
^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^ Includes "Refused"
^ "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References[]

^ "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
^ "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
^ "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
^ "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
^ "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
^ "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".

External links[]

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Maryland", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"Maryland: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of Maryland". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Maryland at Ballotpedia

[othercalc-26] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-27] Jump up to: ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[28] Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

[SE3-29] Jump up to: ^a ^b "Someone else" with 3%

[30] "Refused" with 3%

[31] "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%

[32] Includes "Refused"

[33] "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

[1] "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).

[2] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[4] "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.

[5] "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.

[6] "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.

[7] "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.

[2020_Maryland_Democratic_presidential_primary_MD-SOS-results-8] "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.

[2020_Maryland_Democratic_presidential_primary_MD-AP-delegates-9] "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.

[10] "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.

[11] "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.

[12] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[13] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[14] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[15] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[16] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[17] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.

[18] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[19] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.

[20] "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.

[21] "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.

[22] "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.

[23] "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.

[24] "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.

[25] "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.

[34] "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.

[35] "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".

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