2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →

Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator Pat Toomey Republican

Elections in Pennsylvania
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Government
v t

The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. Senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a gubernatorial election, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

The election is expected to be competitive and important to determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate in 2023. This is attributed to the seat being an open Republican-held one located in a state that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.^[1] Pennsylvania is seen by many Democrats as the best possible pickup of all the Class 3 seats.^[2]

On October 5, 2020, incumbent two-term Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election to a third term.^[3][4]

Republican primary[]

Campaign[]

In October 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.^[5]

By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners.^[6] Parnell's campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell's ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".^[7] Even prior to these allegations doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's ability to fundraise, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.^[8] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the children and Parnell subsequently announced that he was suspending his campaign.^[9]

On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.^[10] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.^[10][11] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick prompted attacks for his past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.^[12] Super PAC's allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of highly funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal".^[13]

Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.^[14][15]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Kathy Barnette, army veteran, author, political commentator on Fox News, and nominee for PA-04 in 2020^[16][17]
• Jeff Bartos, businessman, philanthropist and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018^[18][17]
• George Bochetto, former Pennsylvania State Boxing Commissioner (1996–2002)^[19][20][17]
• Sean Gale, candidate for the Montgomery County Commission in 2019^[21][22][17]
• David McCormick, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009) and CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022)^[23]
• Mehmet Oz, cardiothoracic surgeon, host of The Dr. Oz Show, and member of the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition (2018–present)^[24][17]
• Carla Sands, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021)^{[25][26][27][17]}

Disqualified[]

• John Debellis, small business owner^[30]
• John Eichenberg, truck driver^[31]
• Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate^[32]
• Ronald Johnson, U.S. Army veteran^[33]
• Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician^[34]
• Max Richardson^[35]
• Martin Rosenfeld, Deputy Sheriff of Elk County, Pennsylvania and Treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party^[36]
• Everett Stern, private intelligence agency owner and candidate for PA-13 in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016^[37]
• David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner^[38]

Withdrew[]

• Sean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for PA-17 in 2020 (endorsed McCormick)^[9]
• Craig Snyder, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter^[39][40][41]

Declined[]

• Lou Barletta, former U.S. representative for PA-11 (2011–2019) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for Governor)^[42]
• Camera Bartolotta, state senator for the 46th district (2014–present)^[43]
• Kenneth Braithwaite, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2020–2021), former U.S. Ambassador to Norway (2018–2020), and former advisor to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter^[44]
• Ryan Costello, former U.S. representative for PA-06 (2015–2019)^[45][43]
• Charlie Dent, former U.S. representative for PA-15 (2005–2018)^[45]
• Mike Kelly, U.S. representative for PA-16; formerly PA-03 (2011–present)^[46][47] (endorsed Parnell)
• Michelle Kichline, Chester County Commissioner (2014–present)^[45]
• Scott Martin, state senator for the 13th district (2017–present) (ran for Governor)^[48]
• Doug Mastriano, state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present), former U.S. Army colonel, and candidate for PA-13 in 2018 (running for Governor)^[49]
• Paul Mango, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2019–2021), and candidate for Governor in 2018^[43]
• Mike Regan, state senator for the 31st district (2017–present)^[45]
• Keith Rothfus, former U.S. representative for PA-12 (2013–2019)^[50][51]
• Kiron Skinner, Taube Professor of International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University and former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department (2018–2019)^[52]
• Glenn Thompson, U.S. representative for PA-15; formerly PA-05 (2009–present)^[43]
• Pat Toomey, incumbent U.S. senator^[4]
• Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump (endorsed Parnell)^[53][54][55]
• Martina White, state representative for the 170th district (2015–present)^[45]

Debates and forums[]

2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Republican primary debates

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
					Kathy Barnette	George Bochetto	Jeff Bartos	Sean Gale	David McCormick	Mehmet Oz	Carla Sands	Everett Stern
1	Feb. 22, 2022	BroadandLiberty.com Pennsylvania Chamber of Business & Industry	Becky Corbin	Video	P	P	P	N	A	A	A	P

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kathy Barnette	Jeff Bartos	Sean Gale	David McCormick	Mehmet Oz	Sean Parnell	Carla Sands	Other	Undecided
Fox News	March 2–6, 2022	960 (LV)	± 3.0%	9%	9%	–	24%	15%	–	6%	3%[b]	31%
TargetPoint Consulting (R)	February 25–28, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	5%	10%	–	25%	19%	–	11%	6%	25%
				–	–	–	56%	26%	–	–	–	18%
Franklin & Marshall College	February 21–27, 2022	178 (LV)	± 10.1%	6%	4%	–	13%	10%	–	11%	3%	53%
McLaughlin & Associates[A]	February 16–18, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	–	–	24%	18%	–	–	31%	27%
Osage Research (R)[B]	February 13–16, 2022	825 (LV)	± 4.0%	7%	6%	–	24%	21%	–	11%	3%	28%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	February 1–4, 2022	1,070 (LV)	± 3.0%	9%	7%	2%	16%	27%	–	15%	4%[c]	22%
Osage Research (R)[B]	January 31 – February 2, 2022	– (LV)	–	–	–	–	19%	29%	–	–	–	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	December 13–16, 2021	1,062 (LV)	± 3.0%	8%	3%	1%	–	19%	–	7%	11%	51%
Echelon Insights (R)	December 1–3, 2021	200 (LV)	± 6.9%	7%	4%	4%	–	11%	–	5%	6%[d]	63%
	November 22, 2021	Parnell withdraws from the race
Civiqs (D)	October 31 – November 5, 2021	799 (LV)	± 3.5%	7%	6%	2%	–	–	31%	8%	–	54%
Franklin & Marshall College	October 18–24, 2021	184 (RV)	± 8.8%	3%	2%	0%	–	–	11%	2%	3%	78%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[C]	October 11–14, 2021	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	–	7%	–	–	–	27%	4%	5%	57%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 9–15, 2021	154 (RV)	± 10.9%	6%	4%	3%	–	–	14%	1%	7%	66%

Results[]

Republican primary results^[89]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kathy Barnette
	Republican	Jeff Bartos
	Republican	George Bochetto
	Republican	Sean Gale
	Republican	David McCormick
	Republican	Mehmet Oz
	Republican	Carla Sands
Total votes

Democratic primary[]

Campaign[]

The first two major Democratic candidates to announce were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.^[90] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.^[90] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.^[91] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat, entered the race on August 6, 2021.^[92]

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.^[93] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.^[94] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.^[94]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Kevin Baumlin, chief of Emergency and Urgent Care Services at Pennsylvania Hospital^[95]
• John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–present), former mayor of Braddock (2005–2019) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[46][96][17]
• Malcolm Kenyatta, state representative for the 181st district (2019–present)^[97][17]
• Alexandria Khalil, member of the Jenkintown Borough Council (2019–present)^[98][17]
• Conor Lamb, U.S. representative for PA-17, formerly PA-18 (2018–present)^{[99][100][17]}

Disqualified[]

• Kael Dougherty, data operations associate^[101]
• Larry Johnson, attorney^[102]
• Alan Shank, retail worker^[103]
• Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker^[104]
• Lew Tapera, retail worker^[105]

Withdrew[]

• Val Arkoosh, member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2014–present) and physician^[106][94]
• John McGuigan, former president of the Norristown Municipal Council (1994–1997)^[107][108]
• Eric Orts, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (endorsed Kenyatta)^[109]
• Sharif Street, state senator for the 3rd district (2017–present), vice chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, son of former Mayor of Philadelphia John Street (endorsed Lamb)^[110]

Declined[]

• Brendan Boyle, U.S. representative for PA-02; formerly PA-13 (2015–present)^[111]
• Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative for PA-04 (2019–present) (running for re-election)^[112]
• Eugene DePasquale, former Pennsylvania Auditor General (2013–2021) and nominee for PA-10 in 2020^[113]
• Elizabeth Fiedler, state representative for the 184th district (2019–present)^[44]
• Helen Gym, member of the Philadelphia City Council (2016–present)^[44]
• Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative for PA-06 (2019–present) (running for re-election)^[114]
• Sara Innamorato, state representative for the 21st district (2019–present)^[115]
• Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–present) (endorsed Lamb)^[116]
• Joe Sestak, former U.S. representative for PA-07 (2007–2011), former Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for President in 2020^[117]
• Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–present) (running for Governor)^[118][119]
• Joe Torsella, former Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2017–2021)^[120][121]
• Susan Wild, U.S. representative for PA-07; formerly PA-15 (2018–present) (running for re-election)^[122]
• Tom Wolf, Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–present)^[123]

Debates[]

2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Democratic primary debates

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
					John Fetterman	Malcom Kenyatta	Conor Lamb
1	Apr. 3, 2022	Muhlenberg College	Becky Corbin Jenny DeHuff Ari Mittleman		I [f]	I[g]	I[h]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Val Arkoosh	John Fetterman	Malcolm Kenyatta	Conor Lamb	Sharif Street	Other	Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College	February 21–27, 2022	185 (LV)	± 9.9%	–	28%	2%	15%	–	7%	50%
Impact Research (D)[D]	Early February 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	3%	47%	7%	17%	5%	8%	13%
	February 4, 2022	Arkoosh withdraws from the race
Data for Progress (D)[E]	January 26–31, 2022	730 (LV)	± 4.0%	4%	46%	12%	16%	–	–	22%
	January 19, 2022	Street withdraws from the race
GQR Research (D)[F]	December 14–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	6%	44%	20%	15%	–	2%	12%
GBAO (D)[E]	November 16–23, 2021	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	5%	42%	15%	16%	–	–	21%
Civiqs (D)	October 31 – November 5, 2021	929 (LV)	± 3.2%	2%	52%	5%	12%	2%	6%	21%
Franklin & Marshall College	October 18–24, 2021	208 (RV)	± 8.2%	4%	34%	5%	12%	5%	3%	37%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 9–15, 2021	175 (RV)	± 10.2%	6%	33%	5%	12%	0%	3%	42%
Data for Progress (D)[E]	May 7–14, 2021	302 (LV)	± 6.0%	5%	40%	9%	21%	2%	8%[j]	14%

Results[]

Republican primary results^[89]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kevin Baumlin
	Democratic	John Fetterman
	Democratic	Malcolm Kenyatta
	Democratic	Alexandria Khalil
	Democratic	Conor Lamb
Total votes

Libertarian convention[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

• Erik Gerhardt, carpenter and candidate for president in 2020^{[164][165][166]}

Withdrew[]

• Steve Scheetz, former chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2013–2015, 2019–2021)^{[164][167][168]}

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[169]	Tossup	November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[170]	Tilt R	January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[171]	Tossup	November 3, 2021
RCP[172]	Tossup	January 10, 2022

Polling[]

Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Jeff Bartos (R)	John Fetterman (D)	Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[G]	May 10–19, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.7%	36%	45%	19%
Data for Progress (D)[E]	May 7–14, 2021	310 (LV)	± 5.6%	38%	48%	14%

Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Jeff Bartos (R)	Conor Lamb (D)	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[E]	May 7–14, 2021	341 (LV)	± 5.3%	42%	43%	15%

Mehmet Oz vs. John Fetterman

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mehmet Oz (R)	John Fetterman (D)	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[E]	December 3–5, 2021	581 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	44%	13%

Notes[]

Partisan clients

References[]

External links[]

• Val Arkoosh (D) for Senate
• Kathy Barnette (R) for Senate
• Jeff Bartos (R) for Senate
• Kevin Baumlin (D) for Senate
• John Fetterman (D) for Senate
• Sean Gale (R) for Senate
• Erik Gerhardt (L) for Senate
• Robert "Bobby" Jeffries (R) for Senate
• Malcolm Kenyatta (D) for Senate
• Alexandria Khalil (D) for Senate
• Conor Lamb (D) for Senate
• Dave McCormick (R) for Senate
• Mehmet Oz (R) for Senate
• Carla Sands (R) for Senate
• Everett Stern (R) for Senate
• Sharif Street (D) for Senate
• David Xu (R) for Senate