Opinion polling for the 2016 Philippine presidential election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opinion polling, locally known as surveys, in the 2016 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and other pollsters. The last electoral votes were cast on Monday, May 9, 2016.

As the positions of president and vice president are elected separately, pollsters usually have separate surveys for each position.

The figure representing the polling numbers for the candidate that topped each poll is emboldened unless two or more candidates tied, when they are all emboldened. Those figures which are within the margin of error are italicized.

Calendar[]

  • Filing of candidacies: October 12 to 16, 2015
  • Campaign period for candidates for president, vice president, senators and party-list representatives: February 9 to May 7, 2016
  • Campaign period for local positions and district representatives: March 26 to May 7, 2016
  • Casting of ballots for local absentee voters: April 27 to 29, 2016
  • Election day: May 9, 2016

Graphical summaries[]

For president[]

For vice president[]

Polling for president[]

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October 2015[]

Single-choice surveys[]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
UNA 		Poe
Ind 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Roxas
Lib 		Santiago
PRP 		Estrada
PMP 		Escudero
Ind 		Cayetano
Ind 		Marcos
Ind 		Gordon
Bagumbayan 		Drilon
Lib 		Lacson
Ind 		Legarda
NPC 		Revilla
Lakas 		Teodoro
Ind 		Others Refused Don't know None
Pulse Asia[1] Mar 19–26, 2014 1,200 ±3% 40 15 – 6 10 – 9 4 5 – – 2 – 3 –
5%
K. Aquino (Ind): 4%
Others: 1%
 0.03 0.2 0.4
Pulse Asia[2] Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 1,200 ±3% 41 12 – 7 7 9 7 5 5 1 1 – – 2 – Others: 2% 1 0.5 1
Pulse Asia[3] Sep 8–15, 2014 1,200 ±3% 31 10 – 13 11 10 5 1 4 2 0.4 1 – 1 –
4%
Castro (Ind): 3%
Robredo (Lib): 1%
 –
Pulse Asia[4] Nov 14–20, 2014 1,200 ±3% 26 18 – 6 12 10 7 3 4 1 2 3 – 1 1
3.4%
Belmonte (Lib): 0.4%
Others: 3%
 0.3 0.5 0.2
Pulse Asia[5] Mar 1–7, 2015 1,200 ±3% 29 14 12 4 9 12 4 3 6 1 – 1 – – –
3%
Trillanes (Ind): 2%
Others: 1%
 1 0.1 2
Laylo [6] May 8–18, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 28 24 10 8 8 10 4 3 3 – – 1 – – – –
IBON[7][8] May 13–23, 2015 1,496 ±3% 13.8 13.7 7.6 3.8 – – – – – – – – – – –
15.0%
B. Aquino (Lib) 4.2%
Others: 10.8%
 – 46.1
Pulse Asia[9] May 30–Jun 5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 22 30 15 10 6 10 – 2 – – – 2 – – – Others: 1% 1 0.4 1
RMN[10] Aug 11–18, 2015 4,718 ±2.5% 26.16 24.84 12.42 18.14 4.33 6 – 1.9 0.06 – – 1.83 – – – –
Pulse Asia[11] Aug 27–Sep 3, 2015 1,200 ±3% 21 27 15 18 4 5 – 1 5 – – 1 – – – –
SWS[12] Sep 2–5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 24 26 11 20 12 3 4 0.8 4 – – 8 0.8 – 8
3%
Villar (NP): 1%
Others/Refused/Don't know/None:2%
Pulse Asia[13] Sep 8–15, 2015 2,400 ±2% 19 26 16 20 3 5 – 1 – – – 2 6 – –
0.6%
Bello (Ind): 0.1%
Others: 0.5%
 3

Three-choice surveys[]

These surveys asked participants to rank up to three candidates.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
UNA 		Poe
Ind 		Roxas
Lib 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Santiago
PRP 		Estrada
PMP 		Escudero
Ind 		Cayetano
Ind 		Marcos
Ind 		Lacson
Ind 		Trillanes
Ind 		Revilla
Lakas 		Villar
PN 		Pacquiao
UNA 		Drilon
Lib 		Legarda
NPC 		Pangilinan
Lib 		Others Don't know/refused None
SWS[14] Nov 27–Dec 1, 2014 1,800 ±2% 37 21 19 5 10 9 9 3 3 2 5 5 2 1 1 1 1 5 15 8
SWS[15] Mar 20–23, 2015 1,200 ±3% 36 31 15 15 11 11 8 4 7 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 – – 3 12
SWS[16] Jun 5–8, 2015 1,200 ±3% 34 42 21 20 4 7 4 2 3 7 1 – 1 – – 1 – 1 9 5
SWS[17] Sep 2–5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 35 47 39 16 2 3 6 1 5 1 – – 1 – – – – – 5 2

From the end of candidacy filing to the start of the campaign period[]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
UNA 		Poe
Ind 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Roxas
Lib 		Santiago
PRP 		David
AK 		Sabio
Ind 		Señeres
PMM
Ind 		Others Refused Don't know None
RMN[18] Oct 25-Nov 5, 2015 3,604 ±2.5% 22.95 37.15 – 19.64 11.74 – – – – – – – 8.52
MBC– DZRH[19] Nov 27, 2015 7,436 ±1.14% 18.63 25.14 30.25 14.92 6.22 0.21 0.08 0.31 0.10 2.23 – – 1.92
Pulse Asia[20] Dec 4–11, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 33 21 23 21 4 – 0.1 0 0 – 0.3 1 1
Standard[21] Dec 4–12, 2015 1,800 ±2% 23 28 19 22 3 – – – – 0.1 – – 4
SWS[22] Dec 12–14, 2015 1,200 ±3% 26 26 20 22 4 0.1 0.04 0 0 0.1 1
RMN[23] Jan 5-14, 2016 3,578 ±2.5% 21.49 28.59 27.86 15.12 5.14 – – – – – – – 1.79
SWS[24] Jan 8–10, 2016 1,800 ±2% 31 24 20 21 3 – 0 0.1 – 0 2
First round of oral arguments of Grace Poe's petition to the Supreme Court to overturn the disqualification against her candidacy (Jan 19, 2016).
Pulse Asia[25] Jan 24–28, 2016 1,200 ±3% 23 30 20 20 4 – – – – 0.1 0.4 1 1
Standard[26] Jan 27-Feb 4, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 22 29 20 22 2 – – – – – – – 4
SWS[27] Feb 5-7, 2016 1,200 ±3% 29 24 24 18 4 – – – – – – – 2
Presidential candidate Roy Señeres dies of cardiac arrest (Feb 8, 2016).

From the start of the campaign period to Election Day[]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
UNA 		Poe
Ind 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Roxas
Lib 		Santiago
PRP 		Refused Don't know Undecided / None
Start of the campaign period (February 9).
MBC– DZRH[28][29] Feb 13, 2016 7,572 ±1.13% 23.2 27 26.4 19 3.9 – – 2.3
Pulse Asia[30] Feb 15-20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 25 26 21 21 3 – – 4
First presidential debate in Cagayan de Oro (February 21).
Pulse Asia[31] Feb 16-27, 2016 5,200 ±1.4% 24 26 22 19 3 2 2 2
Pulse Asia[32] Feb 23-27, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 22 25 23 20 3 – – –
Standard [33] Feb 24-Mar 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 23 26 24 22 2 – – 4
Pulse Asia[34] Mar 1-6, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 21 28 24 20 3 – – 6
SWS[35] Mar 4-7, 2016 1,800 ±2% 24 27 21 22 4 – – 1
The Supreme Court affirms Grace Poe's natural-born status and declares she is qualified to run (March 8).
Pulse Asia[36] Mar 8-13, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 22 26 25 20 3 – – 5
Pulse Asia[37] Mar 15-20, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 23 28 24 19 2 – – 4
Second presidential debate in Cebu City (March 12).
Standard [38] Mar 26–Apr 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 18 27 30 21 2 – – 2
SWS[39] Mar 30–Apr 2, 2016 1,500 ±3% 20 23 27 18 3 – – –
MBC– DZRH[40] Apr 2, 2016 7,490 ±1.13% 15.3 28.2 36 15.2 3.5 – – 1.8
Pulse Asia[41] Mar 29–Apr 3, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 20 25 30 19 2 – – 4
The Center [42] Apr 1–7, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 22 25 29 19 2 – – 2.3
Pulse Asia[43] Apr 5–10, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 20 25 32 18 1 1 2 1
The Supreme Court declares their vote on Grace Poe's natural-born status and 10-year residency is final and executory, and she is eligible to the presidency (April 9).
The Center [44] Apr 11–16, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 23.25 26.25 26.75 20.75 2 – – 1
Pulse Asia[45] Apr 12–17, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 19 22 34 18 2 1 3 4
D' Strafford [46] Apr 13–18, 2016 2,800 ±1.9% 19 26 20 26 4 – – 4
Pulse Asia[47] Apr 16–20, 2016 1,800 ±2.3% 16 23 35 17 2 0.3 – 5
Rodrigo Duterte makes a joke about a murdered and raped Australian kidnap victim in a campaign rally (April 17).
SWS[48] Apr 18–20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 14 24 33 19 2 – 5 3
Pulse Asia[49] Apr 19–24, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 18 22 33 20 2 – – 5
The Center [50] Apr 23–29, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 23 25 29 21 2 – – –
Third presidential debate in Dagupan (April 24).
D' Strafford [51] Apr 25–29, 2016 4,500 ±1.2% 17 24 25 28 3 – – 1
Pulse Asia[52] Apr 26–29, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 17 21 33 22 2 – – 5
Antonio Trillanes' exposé on Rodrigo Duterte's alleged multimillion peso bank accounts and properties (April 27).
Argus [53] Apr 28–30, 2016 6,000 ±1.9% 19 27 31 19 4 – – –
Standard [54] Apr 27-May 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 15 25 32 22 2 – – 4
SWS[55] May 1–3, 2016 4,500 ±1.0% 13 22 33 20 2 – 6 4
D' Strafford [56] May 1–5, 2016 4,000 ±1.2% 16.6 22.5 25.4 30.5 3 – 0.3 1.7
SWS[57] Exit poll 45,123 N/A 13.5 19.2 39.3 24.0 3.1 N/A
Election results May 9, 2016 44,979,151 N/A 12.73 21.31 39.02 23.45 3.42 N/A

Polling for vice president[]

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October 2015[]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Poe
Ind 		Escudero
Ind 		Cayetano
Ind 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Marcos
Ind 		Binay
UNA 		Santiago
PRP 		Drilon
Lib 		Ji. Estrada
UNA 		Jo. Estrada
PMP 		Lacson
Ind 		Legarda
NPC 		Revilla
Lakas 		Robredo
Lib 		Roxas
Lib 		Santos
Lib 		Trillanes
Ind 		Others Refused Don't know None
Pulse Asia[1] Mar 19–26, 2014 1,200 ±3% 24 20 6 – 5 – – – 4 – 5 – 3 1 8 5 7
10.3%
K. Aquino (Ind): 5%
Bam Aquino (Lib): 3%
JV Ejercito (UNA): 2%
Others: 0.3%
 0.2 0.3 –
Pulse Asia[2] Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 1,200 ±3% 26 22 14 – 8 – – 5 5 – – – 4 1 – 4 6 Others: 1% 1 1 1
Pulse Asia[3] Sep 8–15, 2014 1,200 ±3% 31 19 9 – 6 – – 5 5 – – – 3 3 – 6 7 –
Pulse Asia[4] Nov 14–20, 2014 1,200 ±3% 33 20 13 – 8 – – 6 5 – – – 3 1 – – 8
1.3%
Gatchalian (NPC): 0.3%
Others: 1%
 – 1 2
Pulse Asia[5] Mar 1–7, 2015 1,200 ±3% 29 16 13 11 11 – – 3 4 – – – 2 0.4 – – 6 1 0.2 1 2
SWS[58] Mar 20–23, 2015 1,200 ±3% 26 6 3 4 3 7 5 – 0.6 3 1.6 1.7 – – 12 0.6 3 5 – – 7
Laylo [6] May 8–18, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 23 16 11 11 5 – – – – 7 7 – – – 5 6 –
IBON[7][8] May 13–23, 2015 1,496 ±3% 15.9 2.5 – – – 6.8 1.9 – – – – – – – 5.1 – – 7.8 13 60
Pulse Asia[9] May 30–Jun 5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 41 15 12 9 9 – – – – – 6 – – 1 – – 5 1 1 0.2 3
SWS[59] Jun 5–8, 2015 1,200 ±3% 21 7 2 3 1 7 2 – – 3 3 1.4 0.7 – 12 1 1.1
1.2%
Moreno (PMP): 0.7%
Pacquiao (UNA): 0.5%
 22 8
RMN[10] Aug 11–18, 2015 4,718 ±2.5% 36.01 21.36 – – 11.82 – – – – – – – – – – – –
Pulse Asia[11] Aug 27–Sep 3, 2015 1,200 ±3% 26 25 7 – 7 – – – – – – – – 2 – – – –
SWS[12] Sep 2–5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 27 20 5 9 7 24 – – 2 7 3 5 – 3 – 4 4
3.9%
Atienza (Buhay): 0.9%
Others/Refused/Don't know/None: 3%
Pulse Asia[13] Sep 8–15, 2015 2,400 ±2% 24 23 9 – 13 – – – – 4 5 – 3 – 5 4
9.1%
B. Aquino III (Lib): 6%
Pangilinan (Lib): 2%
(Ind): 0.1%
Others: 1%
 3

From the end of candidacy filing to the start of the campaign period[]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Escudero
Ind 		Marcos
NP–Ind 		Cayetano
NP–Ind 		Robredo
Lib 		Honasan
UNA 		Trillanes
NP–Ind
AK 		Others Refused Don't know None
RMN[18] Oct 25-Nov 5, 2015 3,604 ±2.5% 38.10 18.70 11.90 13.65 5.94 5.38 – – – – 6.33
MBC– DZRH[19] Nov 27, 2015 7,436 ±1.14% 28.49 24.62 18.25 12.53 6.11 7.75 – – – – 2.25
Pulse Asia[20] Dec 4–11, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 29 23 18 11 9 4 0.3 0.34 0.1 1 1
Standard[21] Dec 4–12, 2015 1,800 ±2% 33 19 18 19 6 7 – – – – 5
SWS[22] Dec 12–14, 2015 1,200 ±3% 30 19 17 14 8 5 0.8 0.64 1
RMN[23] Jan 5-14, 2016 3,578 ±2.5% 32.14 21.60 17.36 14.06 6.32 6.01 – – – – 2.52
SWS[24] Jan 8–10, 2016 1,800 ±2% 28 25 14 17 8 3 1 2.3 2
Pulse Asia[25] Jan 24–28, 2016 1,200 ±3% 33 23 14 18 5 4 – – 0.3 1 2
Standard[26] Jan 27-Feb 4, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 31 25 15 20 5 4 – – – – –
SWS[27] Feb 5-7, 2016 1,200 ±3% 26 26 16 19 6 5 – – – – 2

From the start of the campaign period to Election Day[]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Escudero
Ind 		Marcos
NP–Ind 		Cayetano
NP–Ind 		Robredo
Lib 		Honasan
UNA 		Trillanes
NP–Ind 		Refused Don't know Undecided / None
Start of the campaign period (February 9).
MBC– DZRH[28][29] Feb 13, 2016 7,572 ±1.13% 26.8 25.1 14.8 18.8 5.5 6.2 – – 2.7
Pulse Asia[30] Feb 15-20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 29 26 12 19 4 6 – – 3
Pulse Asia[31] Feb 16-27, 2016 5,200 ±1.4% 26 26 13 18 6 5 2 2 2
Pulse Asia[32] Feb 23-27, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 25 26 12 21 6 4 – – –
Standard [33] Feb 24-Mar 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 30 24 11 20 4 7 – – 5
Pulse Asia[34] Mar 1-6, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 25 22 14 21 5 6 ��� – 6
SWS[35] Mar 4-7, 2016 1,800 ±2% 28 26 11 24 5 6 – – 2
Pulse Asia[36] Mar 8-13, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 24 25 13 20 5 6 – – 6
Pulse Asia[37] Mar 15-20, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 25 25 14 21 5 4 – – 5
Standard [38] Mar 26–Apr 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 28 25 15 21 3 5 – – 4
SWS[39] Mar 30–Apr 2, 2016 1,500 ±3% 21 26 13 19 5 5 – – –
MBC– DZRH[40] Apr 2, 2016 7,490 ±1.13% 22.6 29.8 18.4 17.8 4.3 5.5 – – 1.6
Pulse Asia[41] Mar 29–Apr 3, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 21 28 15 22 4 5 – – 5
The Center [42] Apr 1–7, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 22.5 28.5 16 23.5 4.25 3.75 – – 1.75
Pulse Asia[43] Apr 5–10, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 23 27 17 21 4 3 1 2 1
First vice presidential debate in Manila (April 10).
The Center [44] Apr 11–16, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 23 29 15 25 4 3 – – 1
Pulse Asia[45] Apr 12–17, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 20 29 16 23 4 3 1 3 1
D' Strafford [46] Apr 13–18, 2016 2,800 ±1.9% 23 25 17 32 1 2 – – –
Pulse Asia[47] Apr 16–20, 2016 1,800 ±2.3% 18 29 16 24 4 3 0.7 – 7
Second vice presidential debate in Quezon City (April 17).
SWS[48] Apr 18–20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 18 25 16 26 2 5 – 3 5
Pulse Asia[49] Apr 19–24, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 18 31 15 26 2 3 – – 5
The Center [50] Apr 23–29, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 18 31 15 25 5 3 – – 3
D' Strafford [51] Apr 25–29, 2016 4,500 ±1.2% 18 28 16 34 2 1 – – 1
Pulse Asia[52] Apr 26–29, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 18 28 15 30 3 2 – – 4
Antonio Trillanes' exposé on Rodrigo Duterte's alleged multimillion peso bank accounts and properties (April 27).
Argus [53] Apr 28–30, 2016 6,000 ±1.9% 22 33 13 24 4 4 – – –
Standard [54] Apr 27-May 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 20 30 12 29 3 3 – – 3
SWS[55] May 1–3, 2016 4,500 ±1.0% 15 29 13 28 3 3 – – 9
D' Strafford [56] May 1–5, 2016 4,000 ±1.2% 18 25 17 35 1 3 – – 1
SWS[57] Exit poll 45,123 N/A 11.0 34.6 14.9 32.8 2.5 2.1 N/A
Election results May 9, 2016 44,066,884 N/A 12.01 34.47 14.38 35.11 1.92 2.11 N/A

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