2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election

2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
	County results ; Brown: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Pierce: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Governor before election; Kate Brown; Democratic	Elected Governor ; Kate Brown; Democratic

The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.

The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.

Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history.

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist^[1]
Kate Brown, incumbent governor^[2]
Chet Chance, professional driver^[3]
Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee^[3]
Steve Johnson, health worker^[3]^[4]
Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer^[3]

Declined[]

Brad Avakian, State Labor Commissioner (running for secretary of state)^[5]^[6]
Tina Kotek, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives^[5]
Ted Wheeler, state treasurer (running for Mayor of Portland)^[5]^[7]

Results[]

Results by county:

Brown >= 60%

Brown >= 70%

Brown >= 80%

Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Democratic primary^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kate Brown (incumbent)	494,890	83.03
	Democratic	Julian Bell	49,313	8.27
	Democratic	Dave Stauffer	16,108	2.70
	Democratic	Steve Johnson	13,363	2.24
	Democratic	Kevin M. Forsythe	10,147	1.70
	Democratic	Chet Chance	5,636	0.95
	Democratic	Write-ins	6,595	1.11
Total votes			596,052	100.00

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Allen Alley, former chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, nominee for Oregon State Treasurer in 2008 and candidate for governor in 2010^[9]
Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014^[10]
Bob Forthan, perennial candidate^[10]
Bob Niemeyer, engineering company owner and candidate for OR-01 in 2014^[11]
Bud Pierce, physician^[12]^[13]^[14]^[15]

Declined[]

Shane Bemis, Mayor of Gresham^[16]
Knute Buehler, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012^[17]^[18]
Sid Leiken, Lane County Commissioner, former mayor of Springfield and candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district in 2010 (running for secretary of state)^[19]
Julie Parrish, state representative^[16]^[20]
Dennis Richardson, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014 (running for secretary of state)^[21]
Sherrie Sprenger, state representative^[22]
Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[23]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Allen Alley	Bruce Cuff	Bob Forthan	Bob Neimeyer	Bud Pierce	Undecided
DHM Research	May 6–9, 2016	324	± 5.7%	22%	3%	1%	5%	25%	44%

Results[]

Results by county. Red indicates a win by Pierce, yellow a win by Alley.

Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Republican primary^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	William C. Pierce	171,158	47.66
	Republican	Allen Alley	103,388	28.79
	Republican	Bruce Cuff	41,598	11.58
	Republican	Bob Niemeyer	35,669	9.93
	Republican	Bob Forthan	4,290	1.19
	Republican	Write-ins	3,020	0.84
Total votes			359,123	100.00

Independent Party primary[]

The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.^[24]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Patrick Barney^[3]
Cliff Thomason, realtor^[3]

Declined[]

Betsy Johnson, Democratic state senator^[25]

Results[]

Results by county. Blue indicates a win by Thomason, yellow a win by Barney.

Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Independent primary^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Independent	Cliff Thomason	9,806	34.89
	Independent	Patrick Barney	6,840	24.34
	Independent	Write-ins	11,460	40.77
Total votes			28,106	100.00

Minor parties[]

Aaron Donald Auer (Constitution Party), candidate for governor in 2014^[26]^[27]
James Foster (Libertarian Party), candidate for OR-01 in 2014^[26]^[28]

General election[]

Debates[]

Complete video of debate, October 13, 2016 - C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 20, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[29]	Likely D	August 12, 2016
Daily Kos^[30]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[31]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[32]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[33]	Likely D	November 1, 2016
Governing^[34]	Safe D	October 27, 2016

Polling[]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kate Brown (D)	Bud Pierce (R)	Other/Undecided ^[a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	October 4–29, 2016	October 29, 2016	45.5%	35.5%	19.0%	Brown +10.0%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Bud Pierce (R)	Cliff Thomason (I)	James Foster (L)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,595	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,483	± 4.6%	56%	40%	—	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	1,150	± 4.6%	56%	40%	—	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	934	± 4.6%	55%	41%	—	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	809	± 4.6%	54%	41%	—	—	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	743	± 4.6%	54%	42%	—	—	—	4%
FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research	October 24–29, 2016	504	± 4.4%	42%	33%	4%	3%	4%	15%
Clout Research (R)	October 20–21, 2016	928	± 3.2%	45%	43%	—	—	6%	6%
KGW Oregonian/Riley Research	October 4–14, 2016	608	± 4.0%	48%	34%	—	—	—	13%
Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research	October 6–13, 2016	600	± 4.0%	46%	33%	4%	3%	—	12%
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA	October 10–12, 2016	654	± 3.9%	46%	42%	—	—	4%	8%
iCitizen	September 2–7, 2016	610	± 4.0%	44%	27%	3%	3%	—	23%
KATU-TV/DHM Research	September 1–6, 2016	517	± 4.3%	43%	35%	—	—	—	18%
Clout Research (R)	July 9–13, 2016	701	± 3.7%	43%	42%	5%	2%	—	7%
iCitizen	June 23–27, 2016	555	± 4.0%	42%	35%	—	—	—	23%
Action Solutions→	June 1–2, 2016	600	± 5.7%	39%	37%	—	—	—	24%
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	45%	27%	—	—	—	28%

→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.

Hypothetical polling

with Allen Alley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Allen Alley (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	47%	32%	—	21%

with Shane Bemis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Shane Bemis (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	45%	26%	—	28%

with Dennis Richardson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Dennis Richardson (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	48%	41%	—	12%

Results[]

Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 ^[35]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kate Brown (incumbent)	985,027	50.62%	+0.73%
	Republican	Bud Pierce	845,609	43.45%	-0.68%
	Independent	Cliff Thomason	47,481	2.44%	N/A
	Libertarian	James Foster	45,191	2.32%	+0.83%
	Constitution	Aaron Donald Auer	19,400	1.00%	-0.08%
	Write-in		3,338	0.17%	-0.28%
Total votes			1,946,046	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Notes[]

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References[]

^ Mortensen, Camilla (October 1, 2015). "Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor". Eugene Weekly. Archived from the original on October 5, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Kullgren, Ian (March 9, 2016). "Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
^ http://sbjforgovernor.org^{[permanent dead link]}
^ ^a ^b ^c Topaz, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Meet Kate Brown". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ Theriault, Denis C. (October 6, 2015). "Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ Schmidt, Brad (September 9, 2015). "Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ ^a ^b ^c "May 17, 2016 Primary Election Results". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2016.
^ Theriault, Denis C. (March 7, 2016). "Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
^ ^a ^b Friedman, Gordeon (March 2, 2016). "Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor". KGW. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 29, 2015). "Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ "About Our Clinic". Hematology Oncology of Salem. Archived from the original on 2011-07-15. Retrieved 2016-01-28.
^ Gray, Chris (Sep 24, 2015). "The Lund Report". The Lund Report. Retrieved 2016-01-28.
^ Kullgren, Ian K. (March 16, 2015). "Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 16, 2015.
^ "Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor". The Associated Press. September 18, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
^ ^a ^b Forrester, Steve (April 19, 2015). "Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race". The Daily Astorian. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
^ Anderson, Taylor W. (July 13, 2015). "Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016". The Bulletin. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
^ Theriault, Denis C. (August 25, 2015). "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ Glucklich, Elon (June 30, 2015). "Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead". The Register-Guard. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
^ Hubbard, Saul (April 21, 2015). "GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol". Twitter. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
^ Anderson, Taylor W. (August 28, 2015). "Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016". The Bend Bulletin. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
^ Theriault, Denis C. (April 23, 2015). "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 23, 2015.
^ "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all". OregonLive. September 2, 2015.
^ Mapes, Jeff (August 17, 2015). "Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
^ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2015). "Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
^ ^a ^b "Candidate Filings" (pdf). Retrieved July 30, 2016.
^ "Aaron Donald Auer". Constitution Party of Oregon. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
^ "James Foster". Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on May 18, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

External links[]

Nominees

Primary candidates

[35] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[1] Mortensen, Camilla (October 1, 2015). "Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor". Eugene Weekly. Archived from the original on October 5, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[2] Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015.

[candlist-3] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Kullgren, Ian (March 9, 2016). "Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 7, 2016.

[4] ttp://sbjforgovernor.org^{[permanent dead link]}

[meetkate-5] Topaz, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Meet Kate Brown". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[6] Theriault, Denis C. (October 6, 2015). "Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[7] Schmidt, Brad (September 9, 2015). "Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[primaryresults-8] "May 17, 2016 Primary Election Results". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2016.

[theriault-9] Theriault, Denis C. (March 7, 2016). "Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 7, 2016.

[report-10] Friedman, Gordeon (March 2, 2016). "Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor". KGW. Retrieved March 3, 2016.

[11] Theriault, Denis C. (September 29, 2015). "Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[12] "About Our Clinic". Hematology Oncology of Salem. Archived from the original on 2011-07-15. Retrieved 2016-01-28.

[13] Gray, Chris (Sep 24, 2015). "The Lund Report". The Lund Report. Retrieved 2016-01-28.

[14] Kullgren, Ian K. (March 16, 2015). "Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 16, 2015.

[15] "Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor". The Associated Press. September 18, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2015.

[middle-ground-16] Forrester, Steve (April 19, 2015). "Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race". The Daily Astorian. Retrieved April 21, 2015.

[17] Anderson, Taylor W. (July 13, 2015). "Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016". The Bulletin. Retrieved July 13, 2015.

[18] Theriault, Denis C. (August 25, 2015). "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[19] Glucklich, Elon (June 30, 2015). "Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead". The Register-Guard. Retrieved July 13, 2015.

[20] Hubbard, Saul (April 21, 2015). "GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol". Twitter. Retrieved April 21, 2015.

[21] Anderson, Taylor W. (August 28, 2015). "Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016". The Bend Bulletin. Retrieved October 6, 2015.

[22] Theriault, Denis C. (April 23, 2015). "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 23, 2015.

[23] "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all". OregonLive. September 2, 2015.

[24] Mapes, Jeff (August 17, 2015). "Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.

[25] Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2015). "Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.

[filings-26] "Candidate Filings" (pdf). Retrieved July 30, 2016.

[27] "Aaron Donald Auer". Constitution Party of Oregon. Retrieved July 30, 2016.

[28] "James Foster". Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on May 18, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.

[29] "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[30] "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}

[31] "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[32] "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[33] "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[34] "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[general2016-36] "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

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