2016 Washington gubernatorial election

2016 Washington gubernatorial election
	County results ; Inslee: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; Bryant: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Governor before election; Jay Inslee; Democratic	Elected Governor ; Jay Inslee; Democratic

The 2016 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016.

Under Washington's top-two primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, residents voted for one of several candidates from a range of party affiliations. The top two finishers, incumbent governor Jay Inslee (Democratic)^[1] and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (Republican), moved on to the November general election, which Inslee won. As of 2022, this is the last gubernatorial election in Washington in which the margin of victory was within single digits.

Background[]

Democratic governor Christine Gregoire declined to seek a third term in 2012. Democratic former U.S. Representative Jay Inslee was elected to succeed her, defeating Republican Rob McKenna, the outgoing Attorney General of Washington, by 51.4% to 48.3%. The last Republican to hold the office of governor was John Spellman in 1985, meaning that Washington has the second longest period (South Dakota has not had a Democratic governor since 1979) of one-party statehouse rule in America.^[2]

Primary election[]

Democratic Party[]

Declared[]

James Robert Deal^[3]
Johnathan Dodds^[3]
Jay Inslee, incumbent governor
Patrick O'Rourke^[3]

Republican Party[]

Declared[]

Bill Bryant, former Seattle Port Commissioner^[4]
Goodspaceguy, perennial candidate^[3]
Bill Hirt^[3]

Declined[]

Andy Hill, state senator^[5]
Steve Litzow, state senator (running for reelection)^[5]
Rob McKenna, former Attorney General of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012^[6]^[7]
Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative for Washington's 8th congressional district (running for reelection)^[8]

Third Party and independent candidates[]

Declared[]

David Blomstrom (Fifth Republic)^[3]
Christian Joubert (Holistic)^[3]
Mary Martin (Socialist Workers)^[3]
Steve Rubenstein (Independent)

Declined[]

Randy Dorn, State Superintendent of Public Instruction^[9]

Polling[]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Randy Dorn (I)	Undecided
Elway Poll	April 14–17, 2016	503	± 3.5%	41%	26%	7%	25%

Results[]

Results by county:

Inslee—40–50%

Inslee—60–70%

Bryant—30–40%

Bryant—40–50%

Bryant—50–60%

Bryant—60–70%

Blanket primary election results^[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Inslee (incumbent)	687,412	49.30
	Republican	Bill Bryant	534,519	38.33
	Republican	Bill Hirt	48,382	3.47
	Democratic	Patrick O'Rourke	40,572	2.91
	Independent	Steve Rubenstein	22,582	1.62
	Democratic	James Robert Deal	14,623	1.05
	Democratic	Johnathan Dodds	14,152	1.01
	Republican	Goodspaceguy	13,191	0.95
	Socialist Workers	Mary Martin	10,374	0.74
	Independent	David Blomstrom	4,512	0.32
	Independent	Christian Joubert	4,103	0.29
Total votes			1,394,422	100

General election[]

Debates[]

Complete video of debate, October 19, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[11]	Safe D	August 12, 2016
Daily Kos^[12]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[13]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[14]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[15]	Lean D	November 1, 2016
Governing^[16]	Likely D	November 7, 2016

Polling[]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Jay Inslee (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Other/Undecided ^[a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	October 6 – November 2, 2016	November 2, 2016	50.7%	42.3%	7.0%	Inslee +8.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,451	± 4.6%	55%	42%	3%
Insights West	November 4–6, 2016	402	± 4.9%	49%	40%	10%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,292	± 4.6%	55%	42%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	944	± 4.6%	56%	41%	3%
SurveyUSA	October 31 – November 2, 2016	667	± 3.9%	50%	43%	6%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	807	± 4.6%	56%	41%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	698	± 4.6%	55%	41%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	745	± 4.6%	55%	42%	3%
Elway Poll	October 20–22, 2016	502	± 4.5%	51%	39%	10%
KCTS 9/YouGov	October 6–13, 2016	750	± 4.4%	51%	45%	4%
Strategies 360/KOMO News	September 29 – October 3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	50%	40%	8%
Elway Poll	August 9–13, 2016	500	± 4.5%	48%	36%	16%
Moore Information	May 16–18, 2016	500	± 4.0%	43%	36%	18%
Elway Poll	April 14–17, 2016	503	± 3.5%	48%	36%	16%
Elway Poll	December 28–30, 2015	500	± 4.5%	39%	30%	31%
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	46%	34%	21%

Hypothetical polling

Jay Inslee vs. Andy Hill

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Andy Hill (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	45%	31%	24%

Jay Inslee vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	43%	38%	19%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	45%	34%	22%

Jay Inslee vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
Elway Poll	December 28–30, 2015	500	± 4.5%	30%	25%	45%

Jay Inslee vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Moore Information	May 16–18, 2016	500	± 4.0%	38%	47%	15%
Moore Information	May 2015	500	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	May 16–18, 2016	500	± 4.0%	41%	34%	5%	20%
Moore Information	May 2015	500	± 4.0%	34%	30%	16%	20%

Results[]

2016 Washington gubernatorial election^[17]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Inslee (incumbent)	1,760,520	54.25%	+2.85%
	Republican	Bill Bryant	1,476,346	45.49%	-2.84%
	Write-in		8,416	0.26%	-0.02%
Total votes			3,245,282	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen)
Pacific (largest city: Raymond)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
Kitsap (largest city: Bremerton)
Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)

By congressional district[]

Islee won six of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Bryant.^[18]

District	Bryant	Inslee	Representative
1st	49%	51%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	43%	57%	Rick Larsen
3rd	55%	45%	Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th	60%	40%	Dan Newhouse
5th	56%	44%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	46%	54%	Derek Kilmer
7th	22%	78%	Jim McDermott
7th	22%	78%	Pramila Jayapal
8th	54%	46%	Dave Reichert
9th	33%	67%	Adam Smith
10th	47%	53%	Denny Heck

Notes[]

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References[]

^ "Stockpiling for 2016? Gov. Inslee stages quiet 2014 fundraiser". Seattle Pi. October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
^ Connelly, Joel (September 29, 2014). "What 2014 elections say about 2016 governor's race". Seattle Pi. Archived from the original on October 6, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
^ Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
^ ^a ^b O'Sullivan, Joseph (September 11, 2015). "Hill, Litzow won't challenge Inslee in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved September 14, 2015.
^ Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins lawfirm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
^ Cornfield, Jerry (June 6, 2013). "If not McKenna, others could challenge Inslee in 2016". HeraldNet. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 10, 2014.
^ Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert decides: He won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2015.
^ Douglas, C.R. (March 9, 2016). "State schools chief Randy Dorn close to a third-party run for governor". Q13 Fox. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
^ "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - Governor". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ "November 8, 2016 General Election Results (Washington)". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
^ Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-06-30.

External links[]

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[17] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[1] "Stockpiling for 2016? Gov. Inslee stages quiet 2014 fundraiser". Seattle Pi. October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 21, 2014.

[what2014-2] Connelly, Joel (September 29, 2014). "What 2014 elections say about 2016 governor's race". Seattle Pi. Archived from the original on October 6, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.

[spokesman-3] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.

[4] Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.

[hill_litzow-5] O'Sullivan, Joseph (September 11, 2015). "Hill, Litzow won't challenge Inslee in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved September 14, 2015.

[McKenna-6] Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins lawfirm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.

[ifnot-7] Cornfield, Jerry (June 6, 2013). "If not McKenna, others could challenge Inslee in 2016". HeraldNet. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 10, 2014.

[8] Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert decides: He won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2015.

[9] Douglas, C.R. (March 9, 2016). "State schools chief Randy Dorn close to a third-party run for governor". Q13 Fox. Retrieved March 12, 2016.

[10] "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - Governor". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2020.

[11] "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[12] "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}

[13] "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[14] "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[15] "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[16] "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[18] "November 8, 2016 General Election Results (Washington)". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved 25 February 2021.

[19] Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-06-30.

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