2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona.

Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election with 51.2% of the vote and is running for reelection to a full term. Republican John McCain was reelected to his seat in 2016. McCain died on August 25, 2018; former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of the year and was replaced by former U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost to Kelly in a special election in 2020. Due to the very small margin by which Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden carried the state in 2020, the seat is considered one of the best possible Senate pickups for the Republicans in the 2022 election cycle.^[1]

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator (2020–present)^[2]^[3]

Democratic candidates^[a]

U.S. Senator
Mark Kelly
from
Tucson

Endorsements[]

Mark Kelly

Executive Branch officals

Miles Taylor, Chief of Staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Republican)^[4]
Christine Todd Whitman, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and Governor of New Jersey (1994-2001) (Republican)^[4]

Organizations

314 Action^[5]
End Citizens United^[6]
Jewish Dems^[7]
Let America Vote^[6]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[8]
Renew America Movement^[9]

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Craig Brittain ^[10]
Mark Brnovich, attorney general of Arizona (2015–present)^[11]
Jim Lamon, solar power businessman^[12]
Blake Masters, president of the Thiel Foundation and chief operating officer of Thiel Capital^[13]
Michael McGuire, Major General (ret.) and former Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard^[14]
Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission^[15]
Robert Paveza, software engineer^[16]

Republican candidates^[a]

Attorney General
Mark Brnovich
from
Phoenix
Solar businessman
Jim Lamon
from
Paradise Valley
Thiel Foundation president
Blake Masters
from Tucson
Former National Guard General
Michael McGuire
from Tucson
Corporation Commissioner
Justin Olson
from Mesa

Potential[]

Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to Governor Doug Ducey (2015–2018) and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives (2008–2011)^[17]
Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–present), former state senator (2012–2015) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018^[18]

Declined[]

Paul Gosar, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–present) (running for re-election)^[19]
Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (running for governor)^[20]
Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain^[21]
Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for governor)^[22]
Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona (2019–present) (running for re-election)^[23]^[24]
Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)^[25]^[26]
Doug Ducey, incumbent governor of Arizona (2015–present)^[27]

Endorsements[]

Jim Lamon

Organizations

Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC)^[28]

Blake Masters

Executive branch officials

David McIntosh Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)^[29]
Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)^[30]

U.S. Representatives

Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)^[31]
Madison Cawthorn, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 3rd congressional district (2021-present)^[32]

Individuals

Tucker Carlson, Host of Fox News' Tucker Carlson Tonight, and Conservative Political Commentator ^[33]
Peter Thiel, venture capitalist^[34]

Organizations

Club for Growth^[29]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Brnovich	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Michael McGuire	Justin Olson	Robert Paveza	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	January 11–13, 2022	302 (RV)	± 5.6%	25%	7%	6%	11%	4%	–	47%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	252 (RV)	± 6.2%	27%	5%	9%	12%	2%	–	46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)^[A]	October 26–28, 2021	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	26%	4%	14%	2%	2%	<1%	52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)^[B]	September 9–12, 2021	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	41%	5%	7%	4%	–	–	43%
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	311 (RV)	± 5.6%	27%	3%	6%	14%	–	–	51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)^[A]	August 4–8, 2021	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	29%	7%	5%	3%	–	<1%	56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)	May 3–5, 2021	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	28%	–	1%	1%	–	–	61%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Kirk Adams	Andy Biggs	Mark Brnovich	Doug Ducey	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Michael McGuire	Justin Olson	Other	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	January 11–13, 2022	302 (RV)	± 5.6%	–	–	13%	35%	4%	4%	9%	2%	–	34%
WPA Intelligence (R)^[C]	April 5–6, 2021	505 (LV)	± 4.4%	–	46%	–	45%	–	–	–	–	–	9%
OH Predictive Insights	March 8–12, 2021	690 (RV)	± 3.7%	2%^[c]	27%	–	–	–	2%	3%	–	–	67%
OH Predictive Insights	March 8–12, 2021	690 (RV)	± 3.7%	6%^[d]	26%	–	–	–	2%	10%	–	–	56%
Data Orbital (R)^[D]	February 17–19, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	2%	36%	–	–	1%	1%	3%	–	4%	53%

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[35]	Tossup	November 19, 2021
Inside Elections^[36]	Tossup	January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[37]	Tossup	November 3, 2021
RCP^[38]	Tossup	January 10, 2022

Polling[]

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Mark Brnovich (R)	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)	January 21–24, 2022	1,469 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	4%
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	43%	39%	18%
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	36%	18%

Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Doug Ducey (R)	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)	January 21–24, 2022	1,469 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	47%	4%

Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Jim Lamon (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	43%	36%	21%

Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Blake Masters (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	44%	35%	21%

Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Michael McGuire (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	44%	37%	19%
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	44%	35%	21%

Hypothetical polling

Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Andy Biggs (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	36%	18%

Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Kelli Ward (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	36%	18%

Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Kari Lake (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	35%	19%

Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Jack McCain (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	43%	29%	28%

Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Kimberly Yee (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	45%	35%	19%

Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	January 11–13, 2022	855 (RV)	± 3.4%	42%	38%	19%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	713 (RV)	± 3.7%	40%	39%	21%

Notes[]

^ ^a ^b The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
^ Response with candidates' job titles

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee

References[]

^ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022". CNN.
^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
^ "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021. He’s [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
^ ^a ^b "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.
^ "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.
^ ^a ^b Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021. The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
^ "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
^ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
^ "'Let's go, Brandon' becomes a campaign slogan in Arizona Republican's new ad". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
^ "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.
^ Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the 1st Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
^ Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". FOX Business. Retrieved July 10, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.
^ Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
^ Gosar, Paul. "Gosar announces re-election". Twitter. Retrieved June 1, 2021.
^ Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.
^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
^ Daniel McCarthy [@DemandDanielAZ] (December 8, 2020). "Jim, thank you! I am not a state Rep. State Reps have signed it, but I am setting up a run for Governor of Arizona. The source you republished got it wrong. I'll be on the War Room with Owen Shroyer around 4:30 ET to give the latest" (Tweet). Retrieved January 15, 2020 – via Twitter.
^ Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
^ "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
^ https://biggsforcongress.com/news/
^ Duda, Jeremy (January 13, 2022). "Ducey: I'm Still Not Running For Senate". Arizona Mirror. Retrieved January 31, 2022.
^ "CPAC Endorses Jim Lamon". www.conservative.org. December 8, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
^ ^a ^b Greenwood, Max (February 3, 2022). "Club for Growth endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
^ Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
^ Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
^ https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1487194710531878915?s=20&t=bXgyQho0ILPJt0Sh72884w%7CMadison Cawthorn endorses Blake Masters
^ Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "POLITICO Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.
^ Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.

External links[]

Official campaign websites

[disclaimer-4] The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.

[Key-36] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[40] Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire

[41] Response with candidates' job titles

[SAZ-37] This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters

[AAF-38] This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich

[CFGA-39] This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action

[Biggs-42] This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee

[1] "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022". CNN.

[2] "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

[3] "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021. He’s [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.

[MTCTW-5] "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.

[6] "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.

[rollcall-7] Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021. The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...

[8] "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.

[9] "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.

[10] "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.

[11] "'Let's go, Brandon' becomes a campaign slogan in Arizona Republican's new ad". Retrieved January 28, 2022.

[12] "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.

[13] Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the 1st Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.

[14] Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". FOX Business. Retrieved July 10, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

[15] Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.

[16] Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.

[17] "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

[HillPoll-18] Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.

[19] Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

[20] Gosar, Paul. "Gosar announces re-election". Twitter. Retrieved June 1, 2021.

[21] Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.

[22] Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.

[23] Daniel McCarthy [@DemandDanielAZ] (December 8, 2020). "Jim, thank you! I am not a state Rep. State Reps have signed it, but I am setting up a run for Governor of Arizona. The source you republished got it wrong. I'll be on the War Room with Owen Shroyer around 4:30 ET to give the latest" (Tweet). Retrieved January 15, 2020 – via Twitter.

[auto-24] Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.

[25] "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.

[26] Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.

[27] ttps://biggsforcongress.com/news/

[28] Duda, Jeremy (January 13, 2022). "Ducey: I'm Still Not Running For Senate". Arizona Mirror. Retrieved January 31, 2022.

[29] "CPAC Endorses Jim Lamon". www.conservative.org. December 8, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.

[clubforgrowth-30] Greenwood, Max (February 3, 2022). "Club for Growth endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 6, 2021.

[31] Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.

[32] Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.

[33] ttps://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1487194710531878915?s=20&t=bXgyQho0ILPJt0Sh72884w%7CMadison Cawthorn endorses Blake Masters

[34] Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "POLITICO Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.

[Isenstadt-35] Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.

[Cook_PR-43] "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.

[Inside_Elections-44] "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-45] "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.

[RCP-46] "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.

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v t (2021 ←) 2022 United States elections (→ 2023)
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2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

Contents

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Endorsements[]

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Potential[]

Declined[]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

General election[]

Predictions[]

Polling[]

See also[]

Notes[]

References[]

External links[]