Climate change in South Asia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Climate change in South Asia is having significant impacts already which are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise due to climate change. The South Asia region consists of the eight countries Afghanistan[note 1], Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. In the 2017 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh and Pakistan ranked sixth and seventh respectively as the countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015, while India ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015.[2] South Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions globally to a number of direct and indirect effects of climate change, including sea level rise, cyclonic activity, and changes in ambient temperature and precipitation patterns. Ongoing sea level rise has already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans region, displacing thousands of people.

Among the countries of South Asia, Bangladesh is likely to be the worst affected by climate change. This is owing to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed topography,[3] and socio-economic factors, including its high population density, levels of poverty, and dependence on agriculture.[4] Its sea level, temperature, and evaporation are increasing, and the changes in precipitation and cross-boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in freshwater availability, disturbance of morphological processes,[clarification needed] and a higher intensity of flooding.

Greenhouse gas emissions[]

Bangladesh only contributes 0.21%[5][unreliable source?] of the world's emissions yet it has 2.11% of the world's population.[6][unreliable source?] In contrast, the United States makes up about 4.25 percent[7][unreliable source?] of the world's population, yet they produce approximately 15 percent of the pollution[8] that causes global warming.

According to data from 2020, China, the United States, India, and Russia are the world's biggest emitters of CO2.[8]

Impacts on the natural environment[]

Temperature and weather changes[]

Regarding local temperature rises, the IPCC figure shows that mean annual value of temperature rise by the end of the century in South Asia is 3.3 °C with the min-max range as 2.7 – 4.7 °C. The mean value for Tibet would be higher with mean increase of 3.8 °C and min-max figures of 2.6 and 6.1 °C respectively, which implies harsher warming conditions for the Himalayan watersheds.[9]

Current/past Köppen climate classification map for Southern Asia for 1980–2016
Predicted Köppen climate classification map for Southern Asia for 2071–2100

Extreme weather events[]

Increased landslides and flooding are projected to have an impact upon states such as Assam.[10] Ecological disasters, such as a 1998 coral bleaching event that killed off more than 70% of corals in the reef ecosystems off Lakshadweep and the Andamans, and was brought on by elevated ocean temperatures tied to global warming, are also projected to become increasingly common.[11][12][13]

Sea level rise[]

The global average sea level rose by 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.[14] More recent analysis of a number of semi empirical models predict a sea level rise of about 1 metre by the year 2100. [15] Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people.[16] Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat. It has been predicted that the historical city of Thatta and Badin, in Sindh, Pakistan would have been swallowed by the sea by 2025, as the sea is already encroaching 80 acres of land here, every day. [17]

In October 2019, a study was published in the Nature Communications journal. The journal claims that the number of people who will be impacted from sea level rise during 21st century is 3 times higher than the previous expected number. By the year 2050, 150 million will be under the water line during high tide and 300 million will live in zones with flooding every year. By the year 2100, those numbers differ sharply depending on the emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, 140 million will be under water during high tide and 280 million will have flooding each year. In high emission scenario, the numbers reach up to 540 million and 640 million, respectively. 70% of these people will live in 8 countries in Asia: China, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines. Large parts of Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangkok and Basra could be inundated.[18][19]

Population that will live in a zone of annual flooding by the year 2050 in millions, in 6 countries in Asia, according to old and new estimates:[20]

Country Old estimate New estimate
China 29 93
Bangladesh 5 42
India 5 36
Vietnam 9 31
Indonesia 5 23
Thailand 1 12

Impacts on people[]

Economic impacts[]

India has the world's highest social cost of carbon.[21] The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%; contributing to this would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other factors, submersion of parts of Mumbai and Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).[22]

If severe climate changes occur, Bangladesh will lose land along the coast line.[23] This will be highly damaging to Bangladeshis especially because about 50% population of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector,[24] with rice as the largest production.[25][26] If no further steps are taken to improve the current conditions global warming will affect the economy severely worsening the present issues further.[27] The climate change would increase expenditure towards health care, cool drinks, alcoholic beverages, air conditioners, ice cream, cosmetics, agricultural chemicals, and other products.[28]

Agriculture[]

Climate Change in India and Pakistan will have a disproportionate impact on the more than 400 million that make up India's poor. This is because so many depend on natural resources for their food, shelter and income. More than 56% of people in India work in agriculture, while in Pakistan 43℅ of its population work in agriculture while many others earn their living in coastal areas.[29]

Thick haze and smoke along the Ganges River in northern India.

Health impacts[]

Main article: Effects of global warming on human health

Heat waves[]

Heat waves' frequency and power are increasing in India because of climate change. The number of heat wave days has increased — not just day temperature, night temperatures increased also. 2018 was the country's sixth hottest year on record, and 11 of its 15 warmest years have occurred since 2004. The capital New Delhi broke its all-time record with a high of 48 degrees Celsius.[30] The government is being advised by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in predicting and mitigating heat waves. The government of Andhra Pradesh, for instance, is creating a Heat Wave Action Plan.[31]

Impacts on migration[]

Villagers in India's North Eastern state of Meghalaya are also concerned that rising sea levels will submerge neighboring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya which has few resources to handle such a situation.[32][33]

Mitigation and adaptation[]

There are many concrete steps which can be taken to address the threat of climate change. Incentives can be provided for electric vehicles or public transport and this curb the impact of the transportation sector. However, though these suggestions have been made, there is no political will to carry them out. Households can be given electricity and slowly phasing out LPG (the current trend is to increase the usage of the latter). Rainwater can be harvested and the rivers could be restored to their original flow so that they can bring back the wetlands and the natural ways of silt, nutrient and wildlife flow. All of these use technologies and can be implemented by the 11-year period the IPCC has stipulated before which any change must be made if we are to evade the adverse effects of climate change. So far, though the initiatives by the Delhi Metro to switch to solar power- or similar efforts by Kochi airport-are a step in the right direction, such moves are few and far between. These models should be taken up by other agents as well.[31]

The latest accord, the 2015 Paris Agreement, takes a different approach. The 197 signatory countries have promised to limit global temperature increase to just 1.5 °C over pre-industrialization levels, but each country has set its own targets. India, for instance, has promised to cut its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels (Chart 1a/ 1b).[34]

Adaptation[]

The Asia-Pacific climate change adaptation information platform (AP-PLAT) was launched in 2019. It aims to provide Asia and Pacific countries with data on climate change and convert it to adaptation and resilience measures.[35]

Climate change by South Asian country[]

To learn more about the climate change by country, see the following articles:

Bangladesh[]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Bangladesh.[]
Climate change in Bangladesh is a critical issue as the country is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.[36][37] In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it ranked seventh in the list of countries most affected by climate calamities during the period 1999–2018.[38] Bangladesh's vulnerability to climate change impacts is due to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed topography,[39] and socio-economic factors, including its high population density, levels of poverty, and dependence on agriculture.[40]

India[]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in India.[]
Satpura coal-fired power station
Climate change in India is having profound effects on India, which is ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015.[41] India emits about 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases each year; about two and a half tons per person, which is half the world average.[42] The country emits 7% of global emissions.[43] Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat, threatening the flow rate of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna and other major rivers. A 2007 World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report states that the Indus River may run dry for the same reason.[44] Heat waves' frequency and power are increasing in India because of climate change. Severe landslides and floods are projected to become increasingly common in such states as Assam.[45] The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%. Contributing to this there would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could fall by 40%.[citation needed]

Nepal[]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Nepal.[]
Climate change in Nepal is a major problem for Nepal as it is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. Globally, Nepal is ranked fourth, in terms of vulnerability to climate change. Floods spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and bring landslides, leaving tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed.[46] in the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it was judged to be the ninth hardest-hit nation by climate calamities during the period 1999 to 2018.[47] Nepal is a least developed country, with 28.6 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty.[48] Analysis of trends from 1971 to 2014 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) shows that the average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by 0.056 °C per year.[49] Precipitation extremes are found to be increasing.[50] A national-level survey on the perception-based survey on climate change reported that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records.[51] Data reveals that more than 80 percent of property loss due to disasters is attributable to climate hazards, particularly water-related events such as floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).[52]

Pakistan[]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Pakistan.[]
Climate change in Pakistan is expected to cause wide-ranging effects on the environment and people in Pakistan. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of Pakistan has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue into the future. In addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather conditions in some parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas threatens many of the most important rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan was ranked the 5th worst affected country in terms of extreme climate caused by climate change.[53]

Sri Lanka[]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Sri Lanka.[]
Climate change in Sri Lanka is an important issue, and its effects threaten to impact both human and natural systems in Sri Lanka. Roughly 50 percent of its 22 million citizens live in low-lying coastal areas in the west, south, and south-west of the island, and are at risk of future sea level rise.[54] Climate change also threatens the island's biodiversity, including its marine ecosystem and coastal coral reef environments. Sea-level rise due to climate change has the potential to affect the overall abundance of endemic species. Sri Lanka's coastal regions, such as the Northern Province and the Northern Western Province, are considered major hotspots and extremely vulnerable to climate change. These maritime provinces are the most densely populated.[55] In addition to being a threat to Sri Lanka's biodiversity, climate change may cause disastrous consequences on various levels in such areas. Such consequences include: Affecting agricultural productivity, causing natural disasters like floods and droughts, increasing the spread of infectious illnesses, and finally undermining the living standards.[56]

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ Saez 2012, p. 35.
  2. ^ Kreft, Sönke; David Eckstein, David; Melchior, Inga (November 2016). Global Climate Risk Index 2017 (PDF). Bonn: Germanwatch e.V. ISBN 978-3-943704-49-5. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 September 2017. Retrieved 10 July 2017.
  3. ^ Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul; Wright, Helena; Faisal, Arif M.; Hussain, Syed Tanveer (2014-10-02). "Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development in Bangladesh". Climate and Development. 6 (4): 293–305. doi:10.1080/17565529.2014.977761. ISSN 1756-5529. S2CID 54721256.
  4. ^ Thomas TS, Mainuddin K, Chiang C, Rahman A, Haque A, Islam N, Quasem S, Sun Y (2013). Agriculture and Adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and Projected Impacts of Climate Change (PDF) (Report). IFPRI. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  5. ^ "Bangladesh CO2 Emissions - Worldometer". www.worldometers.info. Retrieved 2021-04-12.
  6. ^ "Bangladesh Population (2021) - Worldometer". www.worldometers.info. Retrieved 2021-04-12.
  7. ^ "United States Population (2021) - Worldometer". www.worldometers.info. Retrieved 2021-04-12.
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b "Each Country's Share of CO2 Emissions | Union of Concerned Scientists". www.ucsusa.org. Retrieved 2021-04-12.
  9. ^ Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton, 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Archived 2007-12-15 at the Wayback Machine [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Hereafter abbreviated to IPCC AR4 – WG1 – chapter11) Table 11.1, page 855.
  10. ^ Dasgupta, Saibal (3 February 2007). "Warmer Tibet can see Brahmaputra flood Assam". The Times of India. Archived from the original on 23 October 2012. Retrieved 2007-03-18.
  11. ^ Aggarwal D, Lal M. "Vulnerability of the Indian coastline to sea level rise" (PDF). SURVAS (Flood Hazard Research Centre). Middlesex University. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2007-07-01. Retrieved 2007-04-05.
  12. ^ Normile D (May 2000). "Some coral bouncing back from El Niño". Science. 288 (5468): 941–942. doi:10.1126/science.288.5468.941a. PMID 10841705. S2CID 128503395. Retrieved 2007-04-05.
  13. ^ "Early Warning Signs: Coral Reef Bleaching". Union of Concerned Scientists. 2005. Retrieved 2007-04-05.
  14. ^ IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Hereafter abbreviated to IPCC AR4 – WG1 – SPM) Table SPM-3, page 13.
  15. ^ Rahmstorf, Perrette, Vermeer (2012). "Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections". Climate Dynamics. 39 (3–4): 861–875. Bibcode:2012ClDy...39..861R. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7. S2CID 55493326.CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  16. ^ Harrabin, Roger (1 February 2007). "How climate change hits India's poor". BBC News. Retrieved 2007-03-10.
  17. ^ Khan, Sami (2012-01-25). "Effects of Climate Change on Thatta and Badin". Envirocivil.com. Retrieved 2013-10-27.
  18. ^ Kulp, Scott A.; Strauss, Benjamin H. (29 October 2019). "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 4844. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.4844K. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. PMC 6820795. PMID 31664024.
  19. ^ Rosane, Olivia (October 30, 2019). "300 Million People Worldwide Could Suffer Yearly Flooding by 2050". Ecowatch. Retrieved 31 October 2019.
  20. ^ Amos, Jonathan (30 October 2019). "Climate change: Sea level rise to affect 'three times more people'". BBC. Retrieved 31 October 2019.
  21. ^ "New study finds incredibly high carbon pollution costs – especially for the US and India". The Guardian. 1 October 2018.
  22. ^ Sethi, Nitin (3 February 2007). "Global warming: Mumbai to face the heat". The Times of India. Archived from the original on 23 October 2012. Retrieved 2007-03-18.
  23. ^ Ahmed, Ahsan; Koudstall, Rob; Werners, Saskia (2006-10-08). "'Key Risks.' Considering Adaptation to Climate Change Towards a Sustainable Development of Bangladesh". Retrieved 2008-10-18.[unreliable source?]
  24. ^ "Bangladesh | FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations". www.fao.org. Retrieved 2020-11-29.
  25. ^ "Rice prices and growth, and poverty reduction in Bangladesh" (PDF). FAO. 2020-11-29.
  26. ^ "Climate change: The big emitters". BBC News. 4 July 2005. Retrieved 18 October 2008.
  27. ^ "Home .:. Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform". sustainabledevelopment.un.org. Retrieved 2020-11-30.
  28. ^ Ramesha Chandrappa, Sushil Gupta, Umesh Chandra Kulshrestha, Climate Change: Principles and Asian Context, Springer-Verlag, 2011
  29. ^ UNDP. "India and Climate Change Impacts". Archived from the original on 2011-03-17. Retrieved 2010-02-11.
  30. ^ "2018 Was Sixth Warmest Year in India's Recorded History: IMD". The Wire. Retrieved 2020-10-30.
  31. ^ Jump up to: a b Alexander, Usha. "Ecological Myths, Warming Climates and the End of Nature". The Caravan. Retrieved 2019-07-17.
  32. ^ "Meghalaya body's Shylla wary of refugee influx". www.telegraphindia.com. Retrieved 2020-11-30.
  33. ^ Islam, Md. Nazrul; van Amstel, André, eds. (2018). Bangladesh I: Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation in Developing Countries. Springer Climate. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-26357-1. ISBN 978-3-319-26355-7. ISSN 2352-0698. S2CID 199493022.
  34. ^ Padmanabhan, Vishnu (2019-09-01). "The four big climate challenges for India". livemint.com. Retrieved 2019-10-08.
  35. ^ "Launch of the Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Information Platform".
  36. ^ Kulp, Scott A.; Strauss, Benjamin H. (2019-10-29). "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 4844. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.4844K. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 6820795. PMID 31664024.
  37. ^ "Report: Flooded Future: Global vulnerability to sea level rise worse than previously understood". climatecentral.org. 2019-10-29. Retrieved 2019-11-03.
  38. ^ Kreft, Sönke; David Eckstein, David; Melchior, Inga (December 2019). Global Climate Risk Index 2020 (PDF). Bonn: Germanwatch e.V. ISBN 978-3-943704-77-8. Archived (PDF) from the original on 25 December 2019. Retrieved 9 December 2020.
  39. ^ Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul; Wright, Helena; Faisal, Arif M.; Hussain, Syed Tanveer (2014-10-02). "Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development in Bangladesh". Climate and Development. 6 (4): 293–305. doi:10.1080/17565529.2014.977761. ISSN 1756-5529.
  40. ^ Thomas TS, Mainuddin K, Chiang C, Rahman A, Haque A, Islam N, Quasem S, Sun Y (2013). Agriculture and Adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and Projected Impacts of Climate Change (PDF) (Report). IFPRI. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  41. ^ Kreft, Sönke; David Eckstein, David; Melchior, Inga (November 2016). Global Climate Risk Index 2017 (PDF). Bonn: Germanwatch e.V. ISBN 978-3-943704-49-5. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 September 2017. Retrieved 10 July 2017.
  42. ^ USAID (September 2018). "Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India" (PDF). Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  43. ^ UN Environment Programme (2019). "Emissions Gap Report 2019". UNEP - UN Environment Programme. Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  44. ^ "How climate change hits India's poor". BBC News. 1 Feb 2007. Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  45. ^ "Warmer Tibet can see Brahmaputra flood Assam | India News - Times of India". The Times of India. Retrieved 2021-03-11.
  46. ^ "GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2019" (PDF). Germanwatch. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-11-29. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  47. ^ "GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020" (PDF). Germanwatch. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-02-24. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
  48. ^ "Nepal Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018". National Planning Commission. Archived from the original on 2020-12-05. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
  49. ^ "Observed Climate Trend Analysis of Nepal (1971-2014)" (PDF). Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, 2017. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-08-28. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  50. ^ Karki, Ramchandra; Hasson, Shabeh ul; Schickhoff, Udo; Scholten, Thomas; Böhner, Jürgen (2017). "Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal". Climate. 5 (1): 4. doi:10.3390/cli5010004.
  51. ^ Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Shrestha, Asheshwor Man; Aryal, Suman; Shrestha, Sujata; Gautam, Madhu Sudan; Ojha, Hemant (1 June 2019). "Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people's perceptions". Climatic Change. 154 (3): 315–334. Bibcode:2019ClCh..154..315S. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02418-5. S2CID 159233373.
  52. ^ "NEPAL'S NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (NAP) PROCESS: REFLECTING ON LESSONS LEARNED AND THE WAY FORWARD" (PDF). Ministry of Forests and Environment. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-04-17. Retrieved 2020-12-01.
  53. ^ Eckstein, David, et al. "Global climate risk index 2020." (PDF) Germanwatch (2019).
  54. ^ "Climate Risk Profile: Sri Lanka". Climatelinks. Retrieved 2020-11-30.
  55. ^ "Building Sri Lanka's Resilience To Climate Change". World Bank. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  56. ^ "Here's how Climate Change will impact you | UNDP in Sri Lanka". UNDP. Retrieved 2020-11-26.

Notes[]

  1. ^ Afghanistan is considered to be part of Central Asia. It regards itself as a link between Central Asia and South Asia.[1]

External links[]

Retrieved from ""