Dissolution of Russia

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This section is about hypothetical dissolution of the Russian Federation. For the 1991 event, see Dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Not to be confused with Abolition of Prussia.

The dissolution of Russia refers to a hypothetical unraveling of the Russian Federation from unified state to various potential independent successor states.[1] The topic is the subject of hundreds of articles on the Internet.[2]

The current Russian Federation is the primary successor state of the Soviet Union. Various trends and problems which may challenge the permanence of the unified Russian Federation has been discussed publicly and in academia by figures such as Garry Kasparov, Mikhail Leontyev, Herman Gref, Maxim Kalashnikov, Sergey Kurginyan, Alexander Prokhanov, Natalya Narochnitskaya, and Dmitry Medvedev.[1]

Historical precedents[]

The collapse of the Russian Empire in September 1918
Administrative map of the Soviet Union in 1989

There were two major periods during Russia's history when large territories formerly under its rule split away. The first was the disintegration of the Russian Empire as a result of the February and October Revolutions in 1917–1921. Active disintegration processes began in the economy, social structure, public and political spheres of the Russian Empire, which ultimately led to the end of the Tsarist regime and became independent states of Poland, Finland and the three Baltic states, while number of other territories obtained limited degree of sovereignty as the union republics (Treaty on the Creation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). The second was the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990–1991 which led to the independence of its constituent union republics: Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Some of the aforementioned later became members of the European Union and NATO.

Since the 1990s and the establishment of the Russian Federation as a multi-ethnic centrally controlled federal state, Chechnya and Tatarstan both sought independence from Russia, which resulted in the Chechen–Russian conflict.

Possible causes of decay[]

The chief researcher of the Institute of philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, V. Shevchenko, when evaluating review articles O. Yu. Maslova "the Collapse of Russia in the early XXI century in the statements of contemporaries", notes that it contains a large collection of articles of authors on the theme of disintegration of Russia — from the diehard supporters of the idea that the collapse of Russia is almost inevitable and has already begun to supporters of the idea of artificial and deliberate attempts of the collapse of the country.[1]

The main reason for the disintegration processes and the possible collapse of Russia - according to V. Shevchenko's review work, "the Future of Russia: Strategies for philosophical understanding" - is the lack of a national idea or project (such as communism in the USSR) that would unite all the people of Russia. Russian statehood is in a transitional state, in which all processes have become more active: both integration and disintegration.[1]

Accompanying reasons for the possible collapse of Russia in the work of V. Shevchenko are listed: xenophobic sentiments ("Russia for Russians"), the desire of the ethnic groups in Russia for separatism, the transformation of national republics into full-fledged States.[1]

In a report to the  [ru], a group of analysts led by A. Kobyakov named the lines of division in modern Russian society that could potentially lead to the collapse of the state: socio-economic inequality, interethnic relations, alienation of elites from the people, and opposition of the "creative class" to the rest of society.[1]

Culturologist I. Yakovenko believes that the main reason for the disintegration processes is the uneven process of market modernization in different regions of Russia, which increases the economic isolation of these regions from each other. Yakovenko identifies the following regions into which, in his opinion, the Russian Federation may break up: North and South of Russia, Siberia, the North Caucasus and the intercontinental border.[1]

In V. Shevchenko's article, the opinion is given that the disintegration has actually already begun, and its signs are: legal extraterritoriality, displacement of persons of a non-titular nation in national republics from the state apparatus, and radicalization of Islam.[1]

According to mathematician Georgiy Malinetsky,[3] there are some possible reasons for the collapse of Russia:

  • the big difference between the income levels of different social strata;
  • strong economic gap between different regions of Russia;
  • the complexity of communications between different regions of the country, which are the result of infrastructure underdevelopment;
  • breakdown of generations;
  • strengthening of existing schisms in a religious, cultural and national context;
  • strengthening of the power of local regional leaders;

Some Russians also say that usage of the Latin alphabet can cause the dissolution of a nation.[4] Russian law favors the use of the Cyrillic alphabet for languages of the Russian Federation.[5]

Opinions on the consequences[]

In an interview with the magazine Expert in April 2005, the head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Medvedev said:[1]

If we fail to consolidate the elite, Russia may disappear as a single state. <...> The consequences will be monstrous. The disintegration of the Union may seem like a matinee in the kindergarten compared to the state collapse in modern Russia.

— Dmitry Medvedev

In 2011, during a meeting of the government Commission for the development of the North Caucasian Federal District in Gudermes, Vladimir Putin said what would happen if the Caucasus suddenly left Russia:[6]

If this happens, then, at the same moment - not even an hour, but a second - there will be those who want to do the same with other territorial entities of Russia, <...> and it will be a tragedy that will affect every citizen of Russia without exception.

— Vladimir Putin

Irredentism[]

There many ethnicities living in Russia related or identical to the titular ethnic groups of neighboring countries. In some regions of Russia and neighboring countries, Irredentism ideas are expressed about the reunification of divided peoples.

In Buryatia and two Buryat autonomous okrugs, one of which is the Ust-Orda Buryat Okrug, ideas are being expressed of joining Mongolia as part of the idea of pan-Mongolism.[7][8]

There are often demands in a nationalistic environment of Kazakhstan to return Orenburg, the Kazakh SSR's former capital in 1920, and the southern part of the Omsk region.[9]

The idea of uniting Finland and Karelia into a Greater Finland was popular among part of the population in Finland and Karelia.[10][11]

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i Философские науки — 2/2015. В. Н. Шевченко. К дискуссиям вокруг темы «Распад России»: В поисках оптимальной формы Российского государстваArchived 2016-09-20 at the Wayback Machine
  2. ^ "Распад России в начале XXI века в высказываниях современников". www.polit.nnov.ru. Retrieved 2016-11-11.
  3. ^ Беляев, Э. "Действительно ли России близится к распаду, как предсказывают математики?". Ойкумена. Регионоведческие исследования. Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  4. ^ Татарстан оставили без latinits'y, by Sergei Karamaev, 16 November 2004 - "Другой довод состоит в том, что латинская графика - это непременный инструмент, а также атрибут глобализации. [...] Однако у глобализации есть и оборотная сторона - нивелирование национальной культуры, внедрение неких усредненных 'общечеловеческих' культурных ценностей, а в перспективе и утрата национального самосознания, со всеми ее печальными последствиями в виде ассимиляции и растворения нации."
  5. ^ З А К О Н РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ: О языках народов Российской Федерации - "6. В Российской Федерации алфавиты государственного языка Российской Федерации и государственных языков республик строятся на графической основе кириллицы. Иные графические основы алфавитов государственного языка Российской Федерации и государственных языков республик могут устанавливаться федеральными законами. (Пункт введен - Федеральный закон от 11.12.2002 № 165-ФЗ)".
  6. ^ "Владимир Путин: Отделение Кавказа от России приведет к развалу страны" [Vladimir Putin: Separation of the Caucasus from Russia will lead to the collapse of the country]. Российская газета (in Russian). 2011-12-20. Retrieved 2018-05-06.
  7. ^ "Четыре сценария развития Бурятии" [Four scenarios for the development of Buryatia]. (in Russian). 10 February 2020.
  8. ^ "Буряты России, Китая и Монголии: проблема идентичности и ее интерпретации" [Buryats of Russia, China and Mongolia: the problem of identity and its interpretation]. cyberleninka.ru (in Russian).
  9. ^ Kovalenko, Nikita; Moshkin, Mikhail; Baltacheva, Marina (14 September 2017). "Казахстан наверняка оставит «притязания на Оренбург» безнаказанными" [Kazakhstan will probably leave "claims to Orenburg" unpunished]. ВЗГЛЯД.РУ (in Russian).
  10. ^ "«Великая Финляндия» и Карелия: мягкая финнизация" ["Greater Finland" and Karelia: soft Finnicization]. ИА REGNUM (in Russian). 5 July 2016.
  11. ^ Nikonorov, Oleksandr (27 February 2020). "Когда развалится Россия: Воссоединятся ли братские Финляндия и Карелия" [When Russia Collapses: Will Brotherly Finland and Karelia Reunite]. Depo.ua (in Russian).

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