2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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  Gov. Chris Sununu.jpg Colin Van Ostern SNHU 2016 closeup.jpg
Nominee Chris Sununu Colin Van Ostern
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 354,040 337,589
Percentage 48.8% 46.6%
New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2016 results by municipality.svg
Results by municipality
Governor before election

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

Elected Governor

Chris Sununu
Republican

Elections in New Hampshire
Federal government
State government
Manchester
  • v
  • t

The 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries were held on September 13.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan was eligible to run for re-election to a third term in office, but she instead successfully ran for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Kelly Ayotte.[1][2][3][4] In the general election, Republican nominee Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Colin Van Ostern and Libertarian state representative Max Abramson to become the first Republican governor of New Hampshire elected since 2002. With a margin of 2.27%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in North Carolina.

Background[]

Governor Maggie Hassan, the incumbent from the Democratic Party, declined to run for reelection, choosing to seek a U.S. Senate seat instead. Both major parties had multiple declared candidates, leading to primary elections that were held September 13, 2016.

New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Mark Connolly, former New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State[5]
  • Derek Dextraze
  • Ian Freeman, radio host
  • Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth[6]
  • Colin Van Ostern, Executive Councilor[7]

Declined[]

  • Jackie Cilley, state representative, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012[8]
  • Dan Feltes, state senator[8]
  • Maggie Hassan, incumbent governor (running for U.S. Senate)[4]
  • Andrew Hosmer, state senator[9][10]
  • Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[11]
  • Shawn O'Connor, businessman (running for NH-01)[8][12][13]
  • Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor[8]
  • Stefany Shaheen, Portsmouth City Councilor and daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen[8]
  • Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. Representative (running for NH-01)[14][15]
  • Donna Soucy, state senator[11]
  • Mike Vlacich, campaign manager for Senator Shaheen[8]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly 		Derek
Dextraze 		Ian
Freeman 		Steve
Marchand 		Colin
Van Ostern 		Other Undecided
InsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 444 ± 5.1% 7% 1% 3% 6% 13% — 71%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 5% — — 2% 12% 6% 74%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 458 ± 4.6% 15% — — — 21% — 64%

Results[]

Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Colin Van Ostern 37,696 51.99
Democratic Steve Marchand 18,338 25.29
Democratic Mark Connolly 14,840 20.47
Democratic Ian Freeman 1,069 1.47
Democratic Derek Dextraze 557 0.77
Total votes 72,500 100.00

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Frank Edelblut, state representative[17]
  • Jeanie Forrester, state senator[18][19]
  • Ted Gatsas, Mayor of Manchester[20]
  • John Lavoie
  • Chris Sununu, Executive Councilor, son of former governor John H. Sununu and brother of former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu[21]

Declined[]

  • Jeb Bradley, Majority Leader of the State Senate and former U.S. Representative[22]
  • Walt Havenstein, businessman and nominee for governor in 2014[23]
  • Donnalee Lozeau, Mayor of Nashua[24]
  • Chuck Morse, president of the State Senate[22]
  • Andy Sanborn, state senator[22]

Endorsements[]

hide
Frank Edelblut
  • 603 Alliance[25]
  • New Hampshire Liberty Alliance[26]
  • Fifty-seven current members of the New Hampshire House of Representatives: Chris Adams, Glen Aldrich, Keith Ammon, John Balcom, Steven Beaudoin, Rick Christie, James Coffey, Allen Cook, Susan Delemus, Dan Donovan, Eric Eastman, Tracy Emerick, Elizabeth Ferreira, Valerie Fraser, Harold French, Bart Fromuth, Dick Gordon, Linda Gould, Warren Groen, Joe Hannon, J.R. Hoell, Edith Hogan, Werner Horn, Ray Howard, Paul Ingbretson, Dan Itse, Tom Kaczynski, Joe Lachance, Don Lebrun, Don McClarren, Jim McConnell, Mark McLean, Carol McGuire, Dan McGuire, Josh Moore, Bill Ohm, Jeff Oligny, Jason Parent, Joe Pitre, Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien, Kimberly Rice, Eric Schleien, Carl Seidel, Tammy Simmons, Kathleen Souza, Greg Smith, James Spillane, Victoria Sullivan, Mike Sylvia, Dan Tamburello, Len Turcotte, Jordan Ulery, Peter Varney, Michael Vose, Joshua Whitehouse, Ted Wright, Kurt Wuelper[27]
  • The Conway Daily Sun[28]
hide
Jeanie Forrester
  • New Hampshire Union Leader[29]
  • Susan B. Anthony List[30]
hide
Ted Gatsas
  • Jeb Bradley, New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader[31]
  • The Keene Sentinel[32]
  • Nashua Telegraph[33]
hide
Chris Sununu
Individuals
  • Charles Bass, former U.S. Representative[34]
  • Scott Brown, former United States Senator from Massachusetts[35]
  • Bill Cahill, former Executive Councilor[36]
  • Louis Georgopoulos, former Executive Councilor[36]
  • Judd Gregg, former Governor of New Hampshire[37]
  • Ruth Griffin, former Executive Councilor[36]
  • John Kasich, Governor of Ohio and 2016 presidential candidate[38]
  • Joseph Kenney, Executive Councilor[36]
  • Steve Merrill, former Governor of New Hampshire[37]
  • Chuck Morse, President of the New Hampshire Senate[39]
  • Earl Rinker, former Executive Councilor[36]
  • Dan St. Hilaire, former Executive Councilor[36]
  • Raymond Wieczorek, former Executive Councilor[36]
Newspapers
  • Concord Monitor[40]
  • The Portsmouth Herald[41]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Frank
Edelblut 		Jeannie
Forrester 		Ted
Gatsas 		Jon
Lavoie 		Chris
Sununu 		Other Undecided
NH Journal[citation needed] July 19–21, 2016 619 ± 5.1% 4% 5% 21% 2% 27% — 41%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 0% 7% 10% — 44% 3% 36%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 454 ± 4.6% 12% — — — 60% — 28%

Results[]

Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris Sununu 34,137 30.68
Republican Frank Edelblut 33,149 29.79
Republican Ted Gatsas 22,840 20.53
Republican Jeanie Forrester 19,716 17.72
Republican John Lavoie 1,429 1.28
Total votes 111,271 100.00

Libertarian Party[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Max Abramson, state representative[42]

Independents[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Mike Gill, businessman[43]
  • Jilletta Jarvis, training project manager[44][45]

General election[]

Debates[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Tossup August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[47] Tossup November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[48] Tossup November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Lean D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[50] Tossup November 1, 2016
Governing[51] Tossup October 27, 2016

Polling[]

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Colin
Van Ostern (D) 		Chris
Sununu (R) 		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 28 – November 6, 2016 November 6, 2016 43.2% 44.4% 12.4% Sununu +1.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Colin
Van Ostern (D) 		Chris
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 55% 42% — 3%
WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 48% 37% 2% 13%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 56% 41% — 3%
WMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 47% 38% 3% 12%
WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 47% 37% 2% 14%
WMUR/UNH Oct 31–Nov 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 47% 37% 2% 14%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 54% 42% — 4%
Suffolk University Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 41% 6% 15%
American Research Group Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH Oct 30–Nov 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 46% 38% 2% 14%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 500 LV ± 4.4% 44% 49% 1% 5%
43% 45% <1% 10%
UMass Lowell/7News Oct 28–Nov 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 43% 47% 5% 4%
901 RV ± 3.8% 41% 45% 5% 8%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 54% 42% — 4%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31–Nov 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 47% 44% — 9%
WMUR/UNH Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 40% 3% 14%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 49% 1% 5%
43% 45% — 10%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 53% 43% — 4%
WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 40% 2% 14%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 53% 43% — 4%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 43% 40% 2% 14%
WMUR/UNH October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 43% 40% 2% 14%
WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 42% 41% 5% 12%
NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 42% 45% 2% 11%
Monmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 48% 43% 4% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 47% 46% 2% 4%
1,020 RV ± 3.1% 47% 46% 2% 5%
UMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 44% 43% 6% 7%
42% 39% 5% 14%
WMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 44% 38% 4% 15%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 53% 43% — 4%
WBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 44% 2% 8%
41% 41% 2% 15%
7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 39% 41% 6% 13%
Suffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 36% 40% 2% 20%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Save the Children Action Network Sept 29–Oct 4, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 44% 44% 6% 6%
WBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 44% 47% 2% 7%
41% 44% 2% 11%
American Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 44% 45% 1% 10%
Monmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 49% 1% 7%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 35% 39% — 26%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 34% 40% — 25%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 34% 41% — 25%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 32% 39% — 29%
WMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 26% 36% — 37%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 34% 37% — 29%

Results[]

Results by county:
Sununu
Van Ostern
2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[52]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chris Sununu 354,040 48.84% +1.41%
Democratic Colin Van Ostern 337,589 46.57% -5.81%
Libertarian Max Abramson 31,243 4.31% N/A
Write-in 1,991 0.28% +0.09%
Total votes 724,863 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county[]

County Sununu# Sununu% Van Ostern# Van Ostern% Abramson# Abramson% Scatter# Scatter% Total votes Margin
Belknap 18,798 54.70% 14,069 40.94% 1,403 4.08% 94 0.00% 34,364 13.76%
Carroll 15,192 52.38% 12,503 43.29% 1,126 3.90% 58 0.00% 28,879 9.09%
Cheshire 17,107 42.25% 21,471 53.02% 1,802 4.45% 114 0.00% 40,494 -10.77%
Coos 7,424 48.90% 7,006 46.14% 702 4.62% 51 0.00% 15,183 2.76%
Grafton 19,685 39.65% 27,621 55.64% 2,215 4.46% 122 0.00% 49,643 -15.99%
Hillsborough 103,811 49.70% 95,231 45.59% 9,128 4.37% 698 0.00% 208,868 4.11%
Merrimack 37,295 45.51% 41,195 50.26% 3,245 3.96% 222 0.00% 81,957 -4.75%
Rockingham 94,385 53.52% 74,076 42.00% 7,499 4.25% 411 0.00% 176,371 11.52%
Strafford 29,578 44.12% 34,173 50.97% 3,128 4.67% 164 0.00% 67,043 -6.85%
Sullivan 10,765 48.80% 10,244 46.43% 995 4.51% 57 0.00% 22,061 2.37%

Notes[]

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References[]

  1. ^ Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  2. ^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_VSGBW8ADk Pundit prediction: Hassan knocks off Ayotte in 2016
  3. ^ Andrea Drusch (February 19, 2015). "Why the Country's Most Powerless Governor Might Run for Senate". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 19, 2015. Retrieved April 18, 2015.
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b Cahn, Emily (October 5, 2015). "Maggie Hassan Will Run for Senate in New Hampshire (Video)". Roll Call. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  5. ^ "Mark Connolly planning to run for governor". Union LeaderWMUR. October 19, 2015. Retrieved October 19, 2015.
  6. ^ DiStaso, John (March 31, 2016). "WMUR interview: Former Portsmouth Mayor Marchand running for governor". WMUR. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  7. ^ Josh McElveen (October 8, 2015). "Democrat Colin Van Ostern running for governor". WMUR. Retrieved October 8, 2015.
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f John DiStaso (November 14, 2014). "Analysis: NH Democrats already have deep bench for top races in 2016". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  9. ^ "Hosmer for Governor?". The Laconia Daily Sun. August 24, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  10. ^ Adam Sexton (October 6, 2015). "Governor's race wide open after Hassan announcement". WMUR. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  11. ^ Jump up to: a b Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  12. ^ James Pindell (November 25, 2014). "Bedford Democrat quietly preparing to run for U.S. Senate against Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved December 1, 2014.
  13. ^ DiStaso, John (February 10, 2015). "Democratic political newcomer O'Connor files candidacy for 1st District U.S. House seat". NH Journal. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  14. ^ Paul Steinhauser (December 11, 2014). "Paul Steinhauser: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter talks 2016, achievements in Congress". NH1. Archived from the original on December 15, 2014. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  15. ^ DiStaso, John. "Shea-Porter announces she's running for US House again in 2016". WMUR.com. Manchester Hearst Properties Inc. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  16. ^ Jump up to: a b "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primaries Results". Politico. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
  17. ^ "Timeline Photos - Rep Frank Edelblut | Facebook". www.facebook.com. Retrieved 2015-08-12.
  18. ^ John DiStaso (September 8, 2015). "Republican Forrester says she is considering run for governor". WMUR9. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  19. ^ DiStaso, John (March 31, 2016). "Forrester focuses on modest upbringing, conservative values in announcing run for governor". WMUR. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  20. ^ DiStaso, John (March 17, 2016). "Updated: WMUR first: Manchester Mayor Gatsas running for governor". WMUR. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
  21. ^ "Chris Sununu announces run for NH Governor". NH1.com. January 14, 2015. Archived from the original on September 19, 2015. Retrieved September 7, 2015.
  22. ^ Jump up to: a b c James Pindell (November 30, 2014). "Will O'Brien decide who runs for governor in 2016?". Seacoast online. Retrieved April 18, 2015.
  23. ^ John DiStaso (April 28, 2015). "Havenstein says he won't run for governor in 2016". WMUR-TV. Retrieved April 28, 2015.
  24. ^ Adam Sexton (January 14, 2015). "Lozeau says she's not running for Nashua mayor again". WMUR9. Retrieved January 16, 2015.
  25. ^ "603 Alliance Endorsements". The 603 Alliance. 7 July 2016. Retrieved 21 July 2016.
  26. ^ "New Hampshire Liberty Alliance 2016 State Candidate Endorsements". New Hampshire Liberty Alliance. 11 July 2016. Archived from the original on 14 August 2016. Retrieved 21 July 2016.
  27. ^ "Long List of NH House Members Endorsing Frank Edelblut for Governor". Frank Edelblut for Governor of New Hampshire 2016. 2 August 2016. Archived from the original on 12 October 2016. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  28. ^ "SUMMER'S OVER, NOW VOTE". The Conway Daily Sun. September 8, 2016.
  29. ^ "An Editorial - Joseph W. McQuaid, Publisher: Jeanie Forrester for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. August 31, 2016.
  30. ^ "Susan B. Anthony List Endorses Jeanie Forrester for NH Governor". Susan B. Anthony List. September 9, 2016.
  31. ^ "SENATE MAJORITY LEADER JEB BRADLEY ENDORSES GATSAS AHEAD OF REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY". Gatsas for Governor. September 7, 2016.
  32. ^ "Gatsas tops GOP gubernatorial candidates". The Keene Sentinel. September 9, 2016.
  33. ^ "GOP: Ted Gatsas". Nashua Telegraph. September 4, 2016.
  34. ^ "Charlie Bass Endorses Chris Sununu for Governor". Manchester Sun Times. February 4, 2016. Archived from the original on February 6, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  35. ^ "Updated NH Primary Source: Ayotte outraises Hassan by $6K, returns $2K to disgraced ex-congressman". wmur.com. April 19, 2016.
  36. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g "Sununu endorsed by fellow executive councilors". Union Leader. November 23, 2015.
  37. ^ Jump up to: a b "Former NH governors Gregg, Merrill endorse Christopher Sununu in gubernatorial contest". Keene Sentinel. November 19, 2015.
  38. ^ "FIRST on NH1 News: Kasich returns to NH Aug 28; will back Sununu in race for governor". nh1.com. August 16, 2016. Archived from the original on August 17, 2016. Retrieved August 17, 2016.
  39. ^ "Senate President Chuck Morse endorses Chris Sununu for Governor". June 8, 2016. Archived from the original on August 11, 2016. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
  40. ^ "Editorial: For Republicans, Chris Sununu". Concord Monitor. September 4, 2016.
  41. ^ "Sununu deserves to be GOP standard-bearer". The Portsmouth Herald. September 11, 2016.
  42. ^ Sullivan, Max (13 June 2016). "Seabrook Rep. Max Abramson running for governor". Seacoastonline.com. Retrieved 14 August 2016.
  43. ^ "Forrester to become fourth Republican candidate for governor". WMUR. 22 March 2016. Retrieved 14 August 2016.
  44. ^ Schinella, Tony (18 May 2016). "Jarvis Launches Indie Bid for Governor of NH". Concord Patch. Retrieved 14 August 2016.
  45. ^ "Jilletta Jarvis for NH Governor 2016". Jilletta Jarvis for NH Governor 2016. Retrieved 14 August 2016.
  46. ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  47. ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  48. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  49. ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  50. ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  51. ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  52. ^ "2016 General Election Information and Results". Secretary of State, New Hampshire. Retrieved November 27, 2016.

External links[]

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