2016 United States presidential election in Kansas

2016 Kansas Republican caucuses
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	Kansas results by congressional district Ted Cruz

2016 United States presidential election in Kansas
Turnout	67.40% [citation needed]
Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90-100%	Clinton 60–70%
President before election; Barack Obama; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Kansas was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[1]

Trump carried the state with 56.16% of the vote, while Clinton received 35.74%.^[2] Kansas was among the eleven states in which Clinton reduced Barack Obama's margin of defeat from 2012 (though her vote share percentage was lower than Obama's 38%), largely due to a significant shift towards Democrats in Johnson County.^[3]^[4]

Background[]

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with then-Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,^[5]^[6] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.^[7] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40% and 50% for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.^[8]^[9] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.^[10]

Following his second term, President Obama is not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.^[11] With their term expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate is asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Political landscape in Kansas[]

The state of Kansas has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket since 1968, and only once to the Democrats (1964) since 1940. At the time, all current statewide officials were Republicans, as were all four members of the state's U.S. House delegation. Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 60% to 38% in 2012. A poll conducted by John Zogby found Clinton leading Trump by 7 points in June. In addition, an internal poll for Representative Kevin Yoder, a Republican from Kansas' 3rd congressional district, released an internal poll showing Clinton leading Trump by 6 points in his district. This district voted for Mitt Romney by a 10-point margin in 2012 and has a PVI of R+6. This result, coupled with Clinton's gains in national polls, caused Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball to move the Kansas race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on August 18.^[12]

Primary elections[]

Democratic caucuses[]

Results of the Democratic caucuses by Congressional District

Bernie Sanders

hideKansas Democratic caucuses, March 5, 2016
Candidate	District delegates		Estimated delegates
Candidate	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	26,637	67.90%	23	0	23
Hillary Clinton	12,593	32.10%	10	4	14
Uncommitted	N/A		0	0	0
Total	39,230	100%	33	4	37
Source: The Green Papers

Bernie Sanders visited Kansas during the primary season—while Hillary Clinton did not herself and instead sent her daughter Chelsea Clinton to hold a rally in Johnson County.

Republican caucuses[]

Kansas Republican precinct caucuses, March 5, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Ted Cruz	37,512	47.50%	24	0	24
Donald Trump	18,443	23.35%	9	0	9
Marco Rubio	13,295	16.83%	6	0	6
John Kasich	8,741	11.07%	1	0	1
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	582	0.74%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	279	0.35%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	84	0.11%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	42	0.05%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	78,978	100.00%	40	0	40
Source: The Green Papers

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times^[13]	Safe R	November 6, 2016
CNN^[14]	Safe R	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[15]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[16]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[17]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[18]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[19]	Likely R	November 8, 2016
Fox News^[20]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Polling[]

Minor candidates[]

The following received write-in status:^[21]

President: Andrew D. Basiago; Vice President: Karen D. Kinnison
President: Darrell L Castle; Vice President: Scott N. Bradley
President: "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente, Vice President: Michael Steinberg
President: Rocky Giordani; Vice President: Farley M Anderson
President: James A Hedges; Vice President: Bill V Bayes
President: Tom Hoefling; Vice President: Steve Schulin
President: Lynn Kahn; Vice President: Kathy Monahan
President: Gloria La Riva; Vice President: Eugene Puryer
President: Michael S. Levinson; Vice President: Perry E. Wharton, II
President: Michael A Maturen; Vice President: Juan A Munoz
President: Evan McMullin; Vice President: Nathan D Johnson
President: Monica G. Moorehead; Vice President: Lamont G. Lilly
President: Darryl Perry; Vice President: Conan Salada
President: Marshall R. Schoenke; Vice President: James C. Mitchell, Jr.
President: Joe C Schriner; Vice President: Joe Moreaux
President: Mike Smith; Vice President: Daniel White
President: Timothy Cook; Vice President: John Stein

Results[]

Candidate	Popular vote	Percentage
Donald Trump (Republican)	671,018	56.03%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat)	427,005	35.66%
Gary Johnson (Libertarian)	55,406	4.63%
Jill Stein (Green)	23,506	1.96%
Evan McMullin (write-in)	6,520	0.54%
Darrell Castle (write-in)	646	0.05%
Mike Maturen (write-in)	214	0.02%
Tom Hoefling (write-in)	45	<0.01%
Gloria La Riva (write-in)	7	<0.01%
Mike Smith (write-in)	6	<0.01%
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in)	3	<0.01%
James Hedges (write-in)	3	<0.01%
Lynn Kahn (write-in)	2	<0.01%
Other write-ins	13,189	1.10%
Total	1,197,570	100.00%
Source: 2016 Presidential General Election Results - Kansas

By congressional district[]

Trump won 3 of the 4 congressional districts.^[22]^{[failed verification]}

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
1st	69%	24%	Tim Huelskamp
1st	69%	24%	Roger Marshall
2nd	56%	37%	Lynn Jenkins
3rd	46%	47%	Kevin Yoder
4th	60%	33%	Mike Pompeo

By county[]

County	Clinton%	Clinton#	Trump%	Trump#	Others%	Others#	Total
Allen	26.27%	1,433	66.94%	3,651	6.78%	370	5,454
Anderson	20.06%	672	72.69%	2,435	7.25%	243	3,350
Atchison	30.25%	1,989	61.58%	4,049	8.17%	537	6,575
Barber	12.70%	286	82.15%	1,850	5.15%	116	2,252
Barton	17.91%	1,839	76.82%	7,888	5.27%	541	10,268
Bourbon	21.93%	1,336	72.61%	4,424	5.47%	333	6,093
Brown	21.38%	863	72.00%	2,906	6.62%	267	4,036
Butler	23.77%	6,573	68.96%	19,073	7.27%	2,011	27,657
Chase	23.08%	316	70.78%	969	6.14%	84	1,369
Chautauqua	13.30%	197	83.46%	1,236	3.24%	48	1,481
Cherokee	23.26%	2,005	71.72%	6,182	5.02%	433	8,620
Cheyenne	12.86%	181	83.37%	1,173	3.77%	53	1,407
Clark	11.94%	120	82.09%	825	5.97%	60	1,005
Clay	17.72%	677	75.68%	2,891	6.60%	252	3,820
Cloud	19.36%	761	74.27%	2,919	6.36%	250	3,930
Coffey	17.87%	727	74.98%	3,050	7.15%	291	4,068
Comanche	11.76%	102	82.47%	715	5.77%	50	867
Cowley	28.14%	3,551	65.53%	8,270	6.34%	800	12,621
Crawford	34.91%	5,199	57.91%	8,624	7.17%	1,068	14,891
Decatur	12.26%	178	83.33%	1,210	4.41%	64	1,452
Dickinson	19.60%	1,609	73.43%	6,029	6.97%	572	8,210
Doniphan	17.38%	587	77.15%	2,606	5.48%	185	3,378
Douglas	62.28%	31,195	29.32%	14,688	8.39%	4,204	50,087
Edwards	16.07%	212	78.62%	1,037	5.31%	70	1,319
Elk	12.71%	160	83.24%	1,048	4.05%	51	1,259
Ellis	22.95%	2,742	70.86%	8,466	6.19%	739	11,947
Ellsworth	19.45%	521	73.50%	1,969	7.05%	189	2,679
Finney	31.45%	3,195	62.51%	6,350	6.04%	614	10,159
Ford	27.84%	2,149	66.26%	5,114	5.90%	455	7,718
Franklin	26.37%	2,892	65.53%	7,185	8.10%	888	10,965
Geary	36.27%	2,722	56.96%	4,274	6.77%	508	7,504
Gove	11.09%	149	84.88%	1,140	4.02%	54	1,343
Graham	14.64%	188	79.83%	1,025	5.53%	71	1,284
Grant	18.46%	441	75.51%	1,804	6.03%	144	2,389
Gray	12.73%	263	82.19%	1,698	5.08%	105	2,066
Greeley	12.77%	83	82.15%	534	5.08%	33	650
Greenwood	17.08%	485	76.06%	2,160	6.87%	195	2,840
Hamilton	13.81%	121	80.48%	705	5.71%	50	876
Harper	15.24%	393	77.42%	1,996	7.33%	189	2,578
Harvey	33.98%	5,068	58.11%	8,668	7.91%	1,180	14,916
Haskell	18.09%	245	76.81%	1,040	5.10%	69	1,354
Hodgeman	12.19%	124	84.07%	855	3.74%	38	1,017
Jackson	25.99%	1,512	67.70%	3,939	6.31%	367	5,818
Jefferson	30.20%	2,518	62.53%	5,213	7.27%	606	8,337
Jewell	12.05%	180	81.86%	1,223	6.09%	91	1,494
Johnson	44.76%	129,852	47.40%	137,490	7.84%	22,748	290,090
Kearny	13.22%	174	81.69%	1,075	5.09%	67	1,316
Kingman	17.97%	599	75.88%	2,530	6.15%	205	3,334
Kiowa	10.57%	114	83.41%	900	6.02%	65	1,079
Labette	28.26%	2,291	65.81%	5,335	5.93%	481	8,107
Lane	12.17%	106	82.43%	718	5.40%	47	871
Leavenworth	33.69%	10,209	58.21%	17,638	8.10%	2,454	30,301
Lincoln	14.69%	215	80.53%	1,179	4.78%	70	1,464
Linn	16.63%	736	78.70%	3,484	4.68%	207	4,427
Logan	10.98%	149	83.42%	1,132	5.60%	76	1,357
Lyon	37.83%	4,649	53.32%	6,552	8.85%	1,087	12,288
Marion	21.41%	1,204	71.18%	4,003	7.41%	417	5,624
Marshall	22.94%	1,072	70.77%	3,307	6.29%	294	4,673
McPherson	25.32%	3,226	67.09%	8,549	7.59%	967	12,742
Meade	12.21%	210	82.27%	1,415	5.52%	95	1,720
Miami	26.57%	3,991	66.59%	10,003	6.84%	1,028	15,022
Mitchell	16.21%	477	78.45%	2,308	5.34%	157	2,942
Montgomery	21.97%	2,637	72.30%	8,679	5.73%	688	12,004
Morris	22.90%	601	69.36%	1,820	7.74%	203	2,624
Morton	12.33%	147	83.47%	995	4.19%	50	1,192
Nemaha	14.15%	725	80.52%	4,124	5.33%	273	5,122
Neosho	23.77%	1,501	70.18%	4,431	6.05%	382	6,314
Ness	11.14%	162	84.46%	1,228	4.40%	64	1,454
Norton	12.58%	281	82.36%	1,840	5.06%	113	2,234
Osage	24.88%	1,753	68.49%	4,826	6.63%	467	7,046
Osborne	13.03%	233	81.66%	1,460	5.31%	95	1,788
Ottawa	14.61%	424	78.64%	2,283	6.75%	196	2,903
Pawnee	21.76%	579	71.55%	1,904	6.69%	178	2,661
Phillips	11.26%	300	83.82%	2,233	4.92%	131	2,664
Pottawatomie	20.81%	2,225	71.19%	7,612	8.01%	856	10,693
Pratt	20.07%	771	73.87%	2,838	6.06%	233	3,842
Rawlins	11.07%	163	82.88%	1,220	6.05%	89	1,472
Reno	28.24%	6,837	64.08%	15,513	7.68%	1,860	24,210
Republic	14.83%	375	80.03%	2,024	5.14%	130	2,529
Rice	18.27%	695	74.58%	2,837	7.15%	272	3,804
Riley	43.38%	9,341	46.94%	10,107	9.68%	2,084	21,532
Rooks	11.37%	275	83.96%	2,031	4.67%	113	2,419
Rush	15.50%	233	79.64%	1,197	4.86%	73	1,503
Russell	14.44%	461	80.61%	2,574	4.95%	158	3,193
Saline	28.63%	6,317	62.67%	13,828	8.70%	1,919	22,064
Scott	10.72%	236	84.70%	1,865	4.59%	101	2,202
Sedgwick	36.88%	69,627	55.28%	104,353	7.84%	14,803	188,783
Seward	32.31%	1,628	62.70%	3,159	4.98%	251	5,038
Shawnee	44.99%	33,926	47.65%	35,934	7.35%	5,546	75,406
Sheridan	09.24%	127	87.12%	1,197	3.64%	50	1,374
Sherman	13.28%	347	80.01%	2,089	6.74%	176	2,612
Smith	14.54%	297	81.34%	1,661	4.11%	84	2,042
Stafford	16.03%	304	78.59%	1,490	5.38%	102	1,896
Stanton	18.05%	115	77.24%	492	4.71%	30	637
Stevens	11.63%	220	84.56%	1,599	3.81%	72	1,891
Sumner	21.35%	2,076	71.84%	6,984	6.81%	662	9,722
Thomas	13.23%	473	81.32%	2,908	5.45%	195	3,576
Trego	13.36%	198	82.79%	1,227	3.85%	57	1,482
Wabaunsee	22.96%	776	70.18%	2,372	6.86%	232	3,380
Wallace	05.76%	46	90.35%	721	3.88%	31	798
Washington	14.00%	387	79.35%	2,194	6.65%	184	2,765
Wichita	14.64%	140	80.44%	769	4.92%	47	956
Wilson	16.54%	594	77.64%	2,788	5.82%	209	3,591
Woodson	18.92%	273	74.98%	1,082	6.10%	88	1,443
Wyandotte	61.80%	30,146	32.40%	15,806	5.80%	2,829	48,781

References[]

^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
^ "Kansas Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 11, 2016.
^ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
^ Martin, David (November 22, 2016). "Why did Hillary Clinton do relatively well in Johnson County? College diplomas". Kansas City Pitch. Retrieved January 28, 2019.
^ "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
^ "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
^ "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
^ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
^ Byrnes, Jesse (June 15, 2016). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
^ Cohn, Nate (January 19, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
^ "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
^ Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
^ http://www.sos.ks.gov/elections/16elec/2016_General_Election-Write-In_Presidential_Candidates.pdf
^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

External links[]

[1] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.

[2] "Kansas Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 11, 2016.

[3] ttp://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[4] Martin, David (November 22, 2016). "Why did Hillary Clinton do relatively well in Johnson County? College diplomas". Kansas City Pitch. Retrieved January 28, 2019.

[house_floor_summary2-5] "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.

[2012_election_results2-6] "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.

[President_Map2-7] "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.

[8] "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.

[9] Byrnes, Jesse (June 15, 2016). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved June 19, 2016.

[10] Cohn, Nate (January 19, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2016.

[11] "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.

[12] Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved August 22, 2016.

[13] "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.

[14] Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.

[15] "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.

[16] "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.

[17] "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.

[18] Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.

[19] "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.

[20] "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.

[21] ttp://www.sos.ks.gov/elections/16elec/2016_General_Election-Write-In_Presidential_Candidates.pdf

[22] ttp://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

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