2016 United States presidential election in Montana

Montana Republican primary, June 7, 2016
	Source: The Green Papers

2016 United States presidential election in Montana
Turnout	74.44% [citation needed]
Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90-100%	Clinton 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
President before election; Barack Obama; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color

Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[1]

Trump carried the state by a 20.5% margin of victory, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7% margin in 2012 and John McCain's 2.4% margin in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.

This was Johnson's fifth strongest state, behind his native New Mexico as well as North Dakota, Alaska, and Oklahoma.

Primary elections[]

Democratic primary[]

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Rocky De La Fuente
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)

hideMontana Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
Candidate	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	65,156	51.56%	11	1	12
Hillary Clinton	55,805	44.16%	10	5	15
No preference	5,415	4.28%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	N/A		0	0	0
Total	126,376	100%	21	6	27
Source: The Green Papers, Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results

Republican primary[]

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
Ben Carson (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
John Kasich (withdrawn)
Rand Paul (withdrawn)
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
Donald Trump

‹ The template below (2016MTRep) is being considered for deletion. See templates for discussion to help reach a consensus. ›

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
CNN^[2]	Safe R	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[3]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[4]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[5]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
NBC^[6]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[7]	Likely R	November 7, 2016

Results by county[]

Preliminary general election results for president as of 14 December 2016 by county. Totals exclude 2,621 write-in votes. ^[8]

County	Clinton%	Clinton#	Trump%	Trump#	Others%	Others#	Total
Beaverhead	23.57%	1143	69.15%	3353	7.28%	353	4849
Big Horn	49.57%	2094	43.87%	1853	6.56%	277	4224
Blaine	45.00%	1202	47.47%	1268	7.53%	201	2671
Broadwater	18.30%	573	74.97%	2348	6.74%	211	3132
Carbon	30.64%	1828	62.81%	3748	6.55%	391	5967
Carter	8.99%	70	87.03%	678	3.98%	31	779
Cascade	35.41%	12175	57.10%	19632	7.49%	2577	34384
Chouteau	28.27%	732	64.85%	1679	6.88%	178	2589
Custer	22.68%	1176	70.53%	3657	6.79%	352	5185
Daniels	17.59%	168	76.44%	730	5.97%	57	955
Dawson	18.17%	787	76.66%	3320	5.17%	224	4331
Deer Lodge	49.07%	2058	42.04%	1763	8.89%	373	4194
Fallon	10.38%	154	86.19%	1279	3.44%	51	1484
Fergus	20.58%	1202	73.10%	4269	6.32%	369	5840
Flathead	28.59%	13293	65.04%	30240	6.37%	2961	46494
Gallatin	45.50%	24246	44.66%	23802	9.84%	5244	53292
Garfield	4.75%	34	91.20%	653	4.05%	29	716
Glacier	61.67%	3121	32.01%	1620	6.32%	320	5061
Golden Valley	15.07%	71	77.49%	365	7.43%	35	471
Granite	26.59%	472	67.15%	1192	6.25%	111	1775
Hill	36.90%	2371	54.12%	3478	8.98%	577	6426
Jefferson	29.96%	1998	62.64%	4177	7.39%	493	6668
Judith Basin	19.57%	235	72.61%	872	7.83%	94	1201
Lake	36.43%	4776	57.44%	7530	6.13%	804	13110
Lewis and Clark	42.28%	14478	49.34%	16895	8.39%	2872	34245
Liberty	21.55%	206	73.01%	698	5.44%	52	956
Lincoln	21.98%	2041	72.48%	6729	5.54%	514	9284
Madison	24.88%	1180	69.51%	3297	5.61%	266	4743
McCone	14.53%	154	81.32%	862	4.15%	44	1060
Meagher	19.79%	193	74.77%	729	5.44%	53	975
Mineral	25.91%	519	66.40%	1330	7.69%	154	2003
Missoula	53.44%	31543	37.70%	22250	8.87%	5233	59026
Musselshell	13.74%	332	81.42%	1967	4.84%	117	2416
Park	38.63%	3595	53.51%	4980	7.86%	731	9306
Petroleum	9.32%	30	86.34%	278	4.35%	14	322
Phillips	14.72%	318	79.73%	1723	5.55%	120	2161
Pondera	27.17%	738	66.24%	1799	6.59%	179	2716
Powder River	12.08%	127	84.11%	884	3.81%	40	1051
Powell	19.72%	551	72.62%	2029	7.66%	214	2794
Prairie	14.51%	100	80.70%	556	4.79%	33	689
Ravalli	27.85%	6223	66.28%	14810	5.88%	1313	22346
Richland	13.84%	671	80.63%	3908	5.53%	268	4847
Roosevelt	42.76%	1560	49.26%	1797	7.98%	291	3648
Rosebud	28.69%	987	65.49%	2253	5.81%	200	3440
Sanders	20.61%	1218	72.52%	4286	6.87%	406	5910
Sheridan	26.04%	477	67.74%	1241	6.22%	114	1832
Silver Bow	52.43%	8619	38.79%	6376	8.78%	1444	16439
Stillwater	18.66%	908	75.24%	3661	6.10%	297	4866
Sweet Grass	19.14%	402	75.95%	1595	4.90%	103	2100
Teton	25.42%	808	68.26%	2170	6.32%	201	3179
Toole	19.80%	402	73.74%	1497	6.45%	131	2030
Treasure	13.32%	59	79.23%	351	7.45%	33	443
Valley	22.86%	886	69.61%	2698	7.53%	292	3876
Wheatland	18.96%	179	74.36%	702	6.67%	63	944
Wibaux	10.24%	55	86.22%	463	3.54%	19	537
Yellowstone	32.35%	22171	59.70%	40920	7.96%	5453	68544

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)
Hill (largest city: Havre)
Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)

Analysis[]

Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.

Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.^[9]

The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.^[10]

References[]

^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
^ Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
^ Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
^ 2016 Statewide General Election Canvass (PDF) Montana Secretary Of State Linda McCulloch. Accessed December 14, 2016.
^ Cohen, Micah (2012-06-21). "Presidential Geography: Montana". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-26.
^ "Montana Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-11-26.

External links[]

[1] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 29, 2020.

[2] Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.

[3] "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.

[4] "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.

[5] "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.

[6] Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.

[7] "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.

[8] 2016 Statewide General Election Canvass (PDF) Montana Secretary Of State Linda McCulloch. Accessed December 14, 2016.

[9] Cohen, Micah (2012-06-21). "Presidential Geography: Montana". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-26.

[10] "Montana Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-11-26.

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