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Energy in Turkey

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Energy consumption per person in Turkey is around the world average[1][2], of which over 80% is from fossil fuels.[3] From 1990 to 2017 annual primary energy supply tripled, but then remained constant to 2019.[2] In 2019, Turkey's primary energy supply included around 30% oil, 30% coal, and 25% gas.[4] These fossil fuels contribute to Turkey's air pollution and its above average greenhouse gas emissions.[5][6]

Turkey mines its own lignite (brown coal) but imports three-quarters of its energy, including half the coal and almost all the oil and gas it requires, and its energy policy prioritises reducing imports.[7] The OECD has criticised the lack of carbon pricing,[8] fossil fuel subsidies[9] and the country's under-utilized wind and solar potential.[10] The country's electricity is generated mainly from coal, gas and hydroelectricity; with a small but growing amount from wind, solar and geothermal.[11] However, Black Sea gas is forecast to meet all residential demand from the late 2020s.[12] A nuclear power plant is also under construction, and one half of installed power capacity is renewable energy.[13] Despite this, from 1990 to 2019, carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions from fuel combustion rose from 130 megatonnes (Mt) to 360 Mt.[14]

Energy policy is to secure national energy supply[15] and reduce fossil fuel imports,[16] which accounted for over 20% of the cost of Turkey's imports in 2019,[17] and 75% of the current account deficit.[18] This also includes using energy efficiently. However, as of 2019, little research has been done on the policies Turkey uses to reduce energy poverty, which also include some subsidies for home heating and electricity use.[19] Turkey's energy policies plan to give "due consideration to environmental concerns all along the energy chain", "within the context of sustainable development."[16] These plans have been criticised for being published over a year after work mentioned in it had started,[20][21] for not looking much beyond 2023,[22] not sufficiently involving the private sector,[23] and for being inconsistent with Turkey's climate policy.[24]

Policy and regulation[]

The Energy Market Regulatory Authority (Turkish: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu) was created in 2001.

Security of supply[]

Primary energy supply in Turkey (2016–2019)[25]

Turkey meets a quarter of its energy demand from national resources.[26] The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), a think tank, says that in the 2010s, fossil fuel imports were probably the largest structural vulnerability of the country's economy:[27] they cost $41 billion in 2019 representing about a fifth of Turkey's total import bill,[28] and were a large part of the 2018 current account deficit[29] and the country's debt problems. Although the country imports 99% of its natural gas and 93% of the petroleum it uses,[30] in the early 2020s fossil gas supply was diversified to reduce dependence on Russia.[31]

To secure energy supply, the government built new gas pipelines,[27] and regasification plants. For example, gas supplies from Azerbaijan surpassed those from Russia in 2020.[31] There is a large surplus of electricity generation capacity,[32] however the government aims at meeting the forecast increase in demand for electricity in Turkey by building its first nuclear power plant and more solar, wind, hydro and coal-fired power plants.[33] The International Climate Initiative says that, as an oil importer, Turkey can increase security of supply by increasing the proportion of renewable electricity it produces.[26] The International Energy Agency has suggested a carbon market,[34] and EDAM says that in the long term, a carbon tax would reduce import dependency by speeding development of national solar and wind energy.[35]

Because the Turkish government is very centralised,[36] its energy policy is national. Lack of transmission capacity was one cause of the nationwide blackout in 2015, therefore policy includes improving electricity transmission.[37] As well as natural gas storage and regasification plants to convert imported liquid natural gas (LNG) to natural gas,[38] the government supports pumped-storage hydroelectricity for long term energy storage.[39]

In 2020, renewables generated 40% of Turkey's electricity, which reduced gas import costs: but, being mainly hydroelectricity, the amount that can be produced is vulnerable to drought.[40] According to Hülya Saygılı, an economist at Turkey's central bank, although imports of solar and wind power components accounted for 12% of import costs in 2017, in EU countries this is largely due to one-time setup costs. She said that compared with Italy and Greece, Turkey has not invested enough in solar and wind power.[41]

Energy efficiency[]

Karabuk Solar Energy Farm

The National Energy Efficiency plan aims to decrease Turkey's energy intensity—the energy required to produce ₺1 (Turkish lira) of GDP—to the OECD average by 2023.[42] Despite the Energy Efficiency Law and a target to reduce its energy intensity by at least 20% between 2011 and 2023; between 2005 and 2015, Turkey's energy intensity increased by seven percent.[34] According to one study, if energy policy was changed—most importantly the removal of fossil fuel subsidies—at least 20% of energy costs could be saved,[43] and according to the Chamber of Mechanical Engineers, the energy required for buildings could be cut by half.[17] In 2019, Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said that improvement of the energy efficiency of public buildings should take the lead and that efficiency improvements are an important source of jobs.[44] It has been suggested that more specific energy efficiency targets for buildings are needed.[45]

According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey has the potential to cut 15% to 20% of total consumption through energy conservation.[46]

Fossil fuel subsidies and taxes[]

In the 21st century, Turkey's fossil fuel subsidies are around 0.2% of GDP,[47] including an estimated US$2.9 billion in 2019.[48] Although the estimated per person cost of US$35 in 2019 is low compared to other G20 countries it is likely an underestimate, as data on finance for fossil fuels by state-owned banks and export credit agencies is not public.[49] The energy minister Fatih Dönmez supports coal[50][51] and most energy subsidies are for coal,[52] which the OECD has strongly criticised.[53] Capacity mechanism payments to coal-fired power stations in Turkey in 2019 totalled 720 million (US$130 million) compared to 542 million (US$96 million) to gas-fired power stations in Turkey.[54] As of 2020, the tax per unit energy on gasoline was higher than diesel,[55] despite diesel cars on average emitting more lung damaging NOx (nitrogen oxide):[56] it has been suggested that the urban car taxes should be equalized between diesel and gasoline as gasoline-hybrid electric light duty vehicles are more fuel efficient in cities than diesel.[57]

Gas subsidies and state control of the market[]

The Kanuni drilling ship is one of three offshore deep-sea drilling ships owned by Turkey along with Fatih and Yavuz

Due to the many sources of supply in the region and increasing liquefied natural gas imports,[58][59] analysts forecast that the wholesale price of gas in USD will remain stable or decrease in the long-term.[60][61] Turkey's relatively expensive long-term contracts with its current suppliers—Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran—are due to expire in the 2020s,[27] and the natural gas import bill is expected to fall during the 2020s due to the start of production from Turkey's part of the Black Sea.[62]

However, the wholesale gas market is not as competitive in Turkey as it is in the EU: some analysts say that this is because the government does not want to split up the state-owned gas company BOTAŞ, or give other power companies fair use of BOTAŞ' pipelines.[34] They say Turkey has not joined the European gas network (ENTSO-G) because joining would require this unbundling.[34] BOTAŞ controls over 90% of the natural gas market,[63] and is the gas infrastructure regulator and the only operator of gas transmission.[64] According to researcher Gulmira Rzayeva, to benefit from a gas price similar to the European hub price, the government will have to liberalise the gas market fully by the end of the 2020s.[65]

Exploration for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean is subsidised,[66][52] and is a cause of geopolitical tension because of the Cyprus dispute.[67] The government says the purpose of capacity market payments is to secure national electricity supply.[68] However, despite almost all natural gas being imported, some gas-fired power plants received capacity payments in 2021, whereas some non-fossil power firms such as demand response utilities could not.[68][69]

Coal subsidies and taxes[]

Coal in Turkey is heavily subsidized.[70] As of 2019, the government aims to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium to long term.[71] Coal's place in the government's energy policy was detailed in 2019 by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), an organisation that lobbies for the Turkish government.[72] Despite protests against coal power plants,[73] construction of Emba Hunutlu was subsidized,[74] and in 2021 Turkey's sovereign wealth fund was still hoping for Chinese partners to start constructing Afşin-Elibistan C.[75] Even in cities where natural gas is available, the government supports poor households with free coal.[18] Electricity from plants which are 40% efficient and burn imported coal never costs less than around 25 USD/MWh to generate: because if the coal costs under 70 USD/tonne it is taxed to bring it up to that price.[76]

Politics[]

Without subsidies, new and some existing coal power would be unprofitable, and it is claimed that path dependence or past decisions, political influence, and distorted markets are why they continue.[77] Although the coal industry and the government are said to have a close relationship, the falling cost of wind and solar may increase pressure against maintaining coal subsidies.[78] Hydroelectric plants, especially new ones, are sometimes controversial in local, international and environmental politics.[79] The EU might persuade Turkey to cooperate on climate change by supporting policies that reduce the country's external energy dependency in a sustainable manner.[34]

State energy companies include Eti Mine, Turkish Coal Enterprises, Turkish Hard Coal Enterprises, the Electricity Generation Company, BOTAŞ and TEİAŞ —the electricity trading and transmission company.[80] The government holds a quarter of total installed electricity supply and often offers prices below market levels.[81]

Energy transition[]

60,000 people are employed as of 2020 and it is estimated employment could be boosted to 80,000 if rooftop solar is boosted.[82]

A wind farm in Gaziantep Province

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency and academic study, increasing the share of renewable energy could make the country more energy independent and increase employment[83] especially in Turkey's solar PV and solar heating industries.[84] said in 2018 that a plan for solar power in Turkey beyond 2023 is needed.[85] In an attempt to reduce fossil fuel imports the government supports local production of electric cars and solar cells.[86]

For three decades from 1990, carbon intensity remained almost constant around 61 tCO2/TJ (tons of carbon dioxide per terrajoule).[2] Nuclear safety regulations and human resources could be improved[87] by cooperation with Euratom ( European Atomic Energy Community).[34] In 2018, a new regulator was set up for nuclear power safety, and $0.15 per kWh of generated electricity will be set aside for waste management.[88]

Health and the environment[]

Retrofitting equipment for pollution control, such as flue-gas desulfurization at old lignite-fuelled plants like Soma power station,[89] might not be financially possible, as they use outdated technology.[90] The government collects data on sulfur dioxide (SO2), NOx and particulate air pollution from each large plant,[91] but it is not published.

The energy policy aim of reducing imports (e.g. of gas) conflicts with the climate change policy aim of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases as some local resources (e.g. lignite) emit a lot of CO
2
. According to Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change at Sabancı University, Turkey must abandon fossil fuel completely and switch to 100% renewable energy by 2050.[92]

Economics[]

According to some studies renewable energy increases employment in Turkey[93]

Turkey's energy bill was $US41 billion in 2019.[94] Europe supports energy efficiency and renewable energy via the €1 billion Mid-size Sustainable Energy Financing Facility (MidSEFF) to finance investments in these areas.[34][95] Up to 150kWh per month of free electricity is provided to two million poor families.[96]

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency said in 2019 that, because of its falling price, the focus should be on maximizing onshore wind power in Turkey.[97] The economics of coal power has been modelled by Carbon Tracker.[98] They estimate that for new plants both wind and solar is already cheaper than coal power.[99] And they forecast that existing coal plants will be more expensive than new solar by 2023 and new wind by 2027.[99]

Most energy deals in 2019 were for renewables, and over half the investment in these was from outside the country.[100] During the early 2020s the wholesale price of natural gas is forecast to fall close to the European hub price.[65] The external costs of fossil fuel consumption in 2018 has been estimated as 1.5% of GDP.[101] The government sets the price of residential gas and electricity,[102] and as of 2018, for residential consumers, "high cost is the most important problem of Turkey's energy system".[103]

Energy sources[]

Coal[]

Tufanbeyli coal-fired power station, Adana

Coal supplies over a quarter of Turkey's primary energy.[104] Every year, thousands of people die prematurely from coal-related causes, the most common of which is local air pollution.

Most coal mined in Turkey is lignite (brown coal), which is more polluting than other types of coal.[105] Turkey's energy policy encourages mining lignite for coal-fired power stations to reduce gas imports;[106] and coal supplies over 40% of domestic energy production.[107] Mining peaked in 2018, at over 100 million tonnes,[108] and declined considerably in 2019.[18] In contrast to local lignite production, Turkey imports almost all of the bituminous coal it uses. The largest coalfield in Turkey is Elbistan.[109]

Gas[]

Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline inauguration at the Turkish city of Eskişehir, 12 June 2018

Annual gas demand is about 50 billion cubic metres (bcm),[110] over 30% of Turkey's total energy demand. Russia supplied a third of this amount in 2020.[12] As of 2019, storage capacity was 3.44 bcm and daily transmission capacity 318 million cubic metres.[111] Over 80% of the population, and all provinces in Turkey, are served with natural gas,[112] which supplies most of the country's heating requirements.[113] In 2019, households bought the most gas, followed by industry then power stations.[65] All industrial and commercial consumers, and households buying over 75 thousand cubic-meters a year can switch suppliers.[18]

Gas from Russia comes via the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines. Iran, the second biggest supplier, is connected via the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline.[114] Azerbaijan normally supplies Turkey through the South Caucasus Pipeline.[115] Its gas flows onward through the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline supplying Turkey and some continues across the Greek border into the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. But as of May 2021, Turkey was not being supplied, as the long-term contract had expired and new terms had not yet been agreed.[116]

About a quarter of the country's gas is imported as LNG.[117] Because it can be stored, it is important for meeting the peak winter demand.[27] Stored LNG met 7.5% of annual demand in 2018 but is increasing. A spot exchange was started in 2018,[18] and futures trading is planned for October 2021.[118]

As of 2019, only a small proportion of gas imports are re-exported to the EU. However Turkey aims to become a gas trading hub[119] and re-export more.[110]

As of 2021 the annual gas import bill is around USD44 billion.[120] But long-term contracts with Russia and Iran will expire in the 2020s allowing Turkey to negotiate lower prices.[121] The contract to import from Iran expires in 2026 and, according to Iranian energy analyst Mohammad Sadegh Jokar, although the two countries both wish to increase trade generally, Iran will need to offer more incentives when it comes to renew the contract.[122] Private companies are not allowed to enter into new pipeline gas contracts with countries that have contracts with state owned BOTAŞ.[18] Although private companies can contract for LNG[18] they cannot buy at the same price as BOTAŞ.[123] As it has 80% of the market,[124] BOTAŞ can and does subsidize residential and industrial customers.[18]

Some distribution companies are testing mixing up to 20% hydrogen with natural gas: their aim is that eventually some of the gas distributed will be green hydrogen.[125][126]

In 2020 drilling ship Fatih, belonging to state owned oil and gas company TPAO, discovered the Sakarya Gas Field under the Black Sea near where Romania has also found gas reserves.[127] TPAO estimate reserves over 400 bcm and hope to begin production in 2023.[128] According to some commentators, with this discovery, the Aegean dispute with Greece over exploratory drilling is now unnecessary.[129]

Oil[]

SOCAR Star Aegean oil refinery, İzmir

During the 2010s oil demand grew from 700 thousand to one million barrels per day, mainly due to increased demand for diesel.[130] Demand is forecast to increase slowly to 2040.[131] Almost all oil is imported: mostly from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan.[132][133] As over half of the imported oil and oil products are used for road transport,[134] it is hoped that electrifying land transport will reduce the import bill. Electric buses[135] and hybrid cars are manufactured locally,[136] and Turkey's automotive industry plans to produce a homegrown electric car beginning in 2022.[137] Most exports from the petroleum industry in Azerbaijan transit Turkey,[138][139] as their light oil fetches a premium price on the world market.[140]

The Petroleum Market Law provides incentives for investors to explore and produce.[141] There is some enhanced oil recovery.[142] As well as crude oil, the country imports oil products, diesel, LPG and petcoke (to make cement), and as of 2020, the energy import bill closely tracks the price of crude oil.[143] It has been suggested that taxes on diesel and petrol should be brought closer in line with each other to minimise imports. [57] TPAO, the state owned exploration and production company, increased offshore exploration in 2020.[144] Turkey is the world's largest user of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for road transport. [145] Shale oil may be extractable from Dadaş, but well waste fluids would need to be properly handled to minimize environmental problems.[146] Although the largest field, Batı Raman, produces extra heavy crude oil, other fields produce much lighter oil: domestic crude API gravity averages 28, and this medium weight is suitable for the Turkish market.[147] Sulfur content is generally high, so refineries may need to be upgraded to meet 2020 maritime sulfur limits.[148]

Nuclear[]

There is no nuclear power in Turkey yet, but Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is being built and is expected to start selling power in 2023. The nuclear power debate has a long history, with the 2018 construction start in Mersin Province being the sixth major attempt to build a nuclear power plant since 1960.[149]

Plans for a nuclear plant in Sinop and another at İğneada have stalled.[150]

Renewable energy[]

Solar panels on an İzmir train station roof: the country has the potential to get a large part of its energy from the sun.

Although there are plenty of renewable resources for energy in Turkey,[151] only hydropower has been developed to any degree, supplying an average of about 20% of Turkey's national electricity supply.[85] with other renewables supplying 12%.[152] However, due to drought in Turkey, hydro has supplied less electricity than usual in recent years,[153] compared to around a third in a wet year.[154] Turkey has invested less in solar and wind power than similar Mediterranean countries.[153] SHURA Energy Transition Center said in 2018 that Turkey needs a renewable energy plan beyond 2023, which includes transport, industry, heating and cooling as well as electricity generation.[85] Turkey is a net exporter of wind power equipment, but a net importer of solar power equipment.[155]

By greatly increasing its production of solar power in the south and wind power in the west, the country's entire energy demand could be met from renewable sources by 2050.[156]

Consumption[]

Consumption of energy in Turkey is around the world average of about seventy gigajoules (GJ) per person per year.[157][2] In total Turkey uses about six billion GJ of primary energy per year—[2][158] over 80% from fossil fuels.[3]As of 2020, more than 25% of energy is used in buildings, of which over 80% is for heating.[159] Heating is the main use for geothermal power in Turkey. Gas consumption is concentrated in the north-west due to the concentration of industry, and the population in Istanbul.[160] The government plans a green electricity tariff for June 2021.[161]

Electricity[]

Sources of electricity

Each year about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used in Turkey, which is almost a fifth of the amount of primary energy in Turkey, and a little under three kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per day.[162] The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 gCO2/kWh.[163] As of 2021, there is a lot of excess generation capacity, but only enough transmission lines to export one percent of the total. Consumption is forecast to increase and there are plans to increase exports during the 2020s.

The country's coal-fired power stations, many of which are subsidised, burn a lot of Turkish lignite and imported hard coal and are the largest greenhouse gas emitters in Turkey. However, solar and wind power in Turkey is growing and with the country's existing hydropower, renewables generate a third of the country's electricity.

In the 2010s imports of gas, mostly for power stations in Turkey, was one of the main import costs for the economy of Turkey. Academics have suggested that the target of 23% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%. Production and use of all types of electric vehicles, including the national car, are expected to increase demand during the 2020s.

History and projections[]

During the late 20th and early 21st centuries the country was very exposed to oil and gas price volatility.[164] Around the turn of the century many gas fired power plants were built, and BOTAŞ extended the national gas pipeline network to most of the urban population.[165] As Turkey had almost no natural gas of its own this increased import dependency, particularly on Russian gas.[166] Therefore, many more regasification plants and gas storage (such as the gas storage at Lake Tuz) were built in the early 21st century, thus ensuring a much longer buffer should the main international import pipelines be cut for any reason. However growth in Turkish electricity demand has often been overestimated. Although much energy infrastructure was privatised in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, as of 2020, energy remained highly state controlled.[164]

A 2020 report from the Istanbul International Centre for Energy and Climate suggested "increased energy efficiency, higher use of renewable energy, improving electricity and natural gas markets, building Turkey's first nuclear power plants, increased energy technology R&D and continuing and expanding the recent efforts to discover and produce more natural gas and oil".[167] The IEA recommends Turkey includes further electrification in integrated scenario planning.[7]

See also[]

Further reading[]

Energy Outlook 2020 tr:Türkiye Sınai Kalkınma Bankası

References[]

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