43rd Quebec general election

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2022 Quebec general election
← 2018 On or before October 3, 2022 (2022-10-03)
125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  François Legault (portraitcrop 2).jpg Dominique Anglade (crop).jpg Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (crop).jpg
Leader François Legault Dominique Anglade Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois[note 1]
Party Coalition Avenir Québec Liberal Québec solidaire
Leader since November 4, 2011 May 11, 2020 May 21, 2017
Leader's seat L'Assomption Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Gouin
Last election 74 seats, 37.42% 31 seats, 24.82% 10 seats, 16.10%
Current seats 74 28 10
Seats needed Steady Increase35 Increase53
  Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (crop).jpg Éric Duhaime (crop).jpg
Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon Éric Duhaime
Party Parti Québécois Conservative
Leader since October 9, 2020 April 17, 2021
Leader's seat Running in TBA Running in TBA
Last election 10 seats, 17.06% 0 seats, 1.46%
Current seats 7 1
Seats needed Increase55 Increase62
Incumbent Premier

François Legault
Coalition Avenir Québec



The 43rd Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 3, 2022, to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",[2] setting the date for October 3, 2022. The Lieutenant Governor of Quebec may still dissolve the legislature before that time on the advice of the Premier, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Background[]

The 2018 general election resulted in a victory for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) led by François Legault won 74 of 125 seats, giving the party a majority and unseating Philippe Couillard's Liberal Party after a single term in office. Couillard subsequently resigned as Liberal leader and was replaced on an interim basis by Pierre Arcand until his successor is chosen.[3][4]

Both the Parti Québécois and Québec solidaire won ten seats each, fewer than the twelve needed for official party status; Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée, defeated in his bid for re-election, resigned as party leader, replaced on an interim basis by Pascal Bérubé until his successor was chosen.[5][6] Adrien D. Pouliot, leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, is stepping down as leader on October 16, 2020.

Following Couillard's resignation, the Quebec Liberal Party held a leadership race. Dominique Anglade, former Deputy Premier of Quebec, was acclaimed leader of the party after her only rival, former mayor of Drummondville, Alexandre Cusson, stepped down. Following a leadership race, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was elected leader of the sovereignist party by the members and supporters of the Parti Québécois.

Current standings[]

Summary of the current standings of the
National Assembly of Quebec
Party Party leader Seats
2018 Current
Coalition Avenir Québec François Legault 74 74
Liberal Dominique Anglade 31 28
Québec solidaire Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
Manon Massé 		10 10
Parti Québécois Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 10 7
Conservative Éric Duhaime 0 1
  Independent 0 5
  Vacant 0
Total 125 125

Timeline[]

Changes in seats held (2018–Present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Roberval October 4, 2018[3] Philippe Couillard █ Liberal Resignation[a 1] December 10, 2018[7] Nancy Guillemette █ CAQ
Chomedey October 5, 2018[8][9] Guy Ouellette █ Liberal Expelled from caucus[a 2] █ Independent
Marie-Victorin March 11, 2019[10] Catherine Fournier █ Parti Québécois Resigned from caucus[a 3] █ Independent
Jean-Talon August 30, 2019[11] Sébastien Proulx █ Liberal Resignation[a 4] December 2, 2019[12] Joëlle Boutin █ CAQ
Rimouski December 15, 2020[13] Harold LeBel █ Parti Québécois Expelled from caucus[a 5] █ Independent
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata December 17, 2020[14] Denis Tardif █ CAQ Expelled from caucus[a 6] █ Independent
April 12, 2021[15] █ Independent Reinstated █ CAQ
Rousseau March 30, 2021[16] Louis-Charles Thouin █ CAQ Withdrew from caucus[a 7] █ Independent
Bonaventure June 4, 2021[17] Sylvain Roy █ Parti Québécois Withdrew from caucus[a 8] █ Independent
Iberville June 15, 2021[18] Claire Samson █ CAQ Expelled from caucus[a 9] █ Conservative
  1. ^ from positions of Liberal Party leader and MNA
  2. ^ for allegedly leaking confidential information to the CAQ in 2016
  3. ^ claiming that the party had lost its way ideologically
  4. ^ to spend more time with family
  5. ^ amid further investigations relating to sexual assault allegations
  6. ^ for breaking COVID-19 restrictions
  7. ^ amid an ethics probe
  8. ^ amid disagreements with party leadership
  9. ^ after giving a donation to the Conservative Party of Quebec

2018[]

2020[]

Opinion polls[]

Voting intentions in Quebec since the 2018 election
Polling organisation Last date of polling Source CAQ Liberal PQ QS Other Sample size Margin of error Lead
August 30, 2021 HTML 49 16 9 14 9 (PCQ 9%) 1,500 N/A 33
Angus Reid June 8, 2021 PDF 41 21 11 14 11 (PCQ 8%, Green 3%) 679 N/A 20
CAQ announce bill 96 which will be strengthening Bill 101, the French language law. (12 May 2021)
Leger May 1, 2021 HTML 46 20 12 14 9 (PCQ 6%) 1,015 ±3.1% 26
Éric Duhaime is elected as leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec (17 April 2021)
Mainstreet February 9, 2021 PDF 48 21 11 12 8 1,012 ±3.08% 27
Leger December 13, 2020 PDF 49 22 14 11 5 1,004 ±3.1% 27
Angus Reid November 30, 2020 PDF 38 23 15 10 13 (PCQ: 9%, Green 3%) 768 N/A 13
Leger November 25, 2020 HTML 44 23 14 12 7 1,000 ±3.1% 21
Leger October 18, 2020 PDF 50 18 16 13 3 1,011 ±3.1% 32
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is elected as leader of the Parti Québécois (9 October 2020)
Leger September 3, 2020 PDF 48 22 17 11 3 1,000 ±3.1% 26
EKOS August 28, 2020 HTML 57 17 11 9 6 5,039 ±1.53% 40
Innovative Research Group July 20, 2020 PDF 38 29 17 9 8 565 N/A 11
EKOS July 3, 2020 HTML 59 19 8 9 5 1,870 ±2.5% 40
Innovative Research Group June 23, 2020 PDF 39 29 21 5 7 263 N/A 10
Leger June 21, 2020 PDF 51 22 14 10 4 1,002 ±3.0% 29
Innovative Research Group June 1, 2020 PDF 38 28 16 9 9 (Green 8%, Other 1%) 257 N/A 10
Leger May 25, 2020 HTML 54 22 11 8 5 1,203 N/A 32
Angus Reid May 24, 2020 HTML 50 22 11 10 7 739 N/A 28
Dominique Anglade is elected as leader of the Quebec Liberal Party (11 May 2020)
Innovative Research Group May 5, 2020 PDF 35 32 17 8 6 257 N/A 3
EKOS March 26, 2020 HTML 51.9 19.2 14.4 10.4 4 578 ±4.1% 32.7
Leger March 16, 2020 PDF 46 22 18 10 3 1,006 ±3.1% 24
State of emergency declared due to the COVID-19 pandemic (13 March 2020)
Angus Reid February 28, 2020 PDF 36 22 17 16 9 638 ±3.7% 14
Leger February 17, 2020 PDF 40 28 18 15 N/A 1,017 ±3.1% 12
Leger January 15, 2020 HTML 42 23 19 11 5 1,202 ±2.8% 19
CAQ wins the by-election in Jean-Talon (2 December 2019)
Leger November 25, 2019 HTML 38 27 19 10 6 1,000 ±3.1% 11
Forum July 24, 2019 PDF 42 22 12 15 10 977 ±3% 20
Mainstreet July 2, 2019 HTML 47.8 21.7 10.5 14.5 5.6 871 ±3.32% 26.1
CAQ passes Bill 21 "An Act respecting the laicity of the State" (16 June 2019)
Forum June 12, 2019 PDF 46 16 13 19 6 1,407–71 ±2.5% 24
Leger May 21, 2019 HTML 46 23 14 13 4 979 ±3% 23
Mainstreet March 21, 2019 PDF 45.3 22.3 10.4 14.7 7.2 940 ±3.20% 23.0
Leger March 11, 2019 PDF 44 21 15 15 5 1,014 ±3.08% 23
Leger January 28, 2019 PDF 42 22 18 15 3 1,007 ±3.09% 20
Mainstreet January 18, 2019 PDF 44.5 26.1 8.9 15.8 4.8 979 ±3.13% 18.4
CAQ wins the by-election in Roberval (10 December 2018)
Mainstreet November 7, 2018 HTML 39.4 22.8 14.1 19.0 4.7 896 ±3.27% 16.6
2018 election October 1, 2018 37.42 24.82 17.06 16.10 4.60 4,033,538 12.6

Electoral reform referendum[]

Québec's 2022 Electoral reform Referendum
(government proposal)
October 3, 2022 (2022-10-03)
Do you agree with replacing the first-past-the-post electoral system by the mixed electoral system with regional compensation set out in the Act to establish a new electoral system?
French: Êtes-vous en accord avec le remplacement du mode de scrutin majoritaire uninominal à un tour par le mode de scrutin mixte avec compensation régionale prévu par la Loi établissant un nouveau mode de scrutin?

François Legault was elected on a promise to reform the electoral system within a year of his victory. On 25 September 2019, Minister of Justice Sonia Lebel presented Bill 39, An Act to establish a new electoral system which aims to replace the First-past-the-post electoral system in favour of a mixed-member proportional representation system.

On April 28, 2021, Justice Minister LeBel informed a legislative committee hearing that the government would not move forward with a referendum on electoral reform in 2022. LeBel blamed the COVID-19 pandemic for altering the government's timeline and could not commit to providing an alternate date for the referendum, effectively ending discussions about electoral reform in Quebec.[21]

Bill 39 was intended to be debated in the legislature before June 2021. The bill's implementation would have been contingent on popular support expressed in a referendum held on the same day as the general election.[22]

Was this referendum successful, then the first legislature to be elected under mixed-member proportional would have been the 44th, in October 2026 at the latest.

According to the bill, the National Assembly would have kept 125 members. Of the 125 members, 80 would have been elected by receiving a plurality of votes in single-member districts matching the 78 federal ridings with the addition of 2 unique districts: Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Ungava). The remaining 45 members would have been chosen according to their order in a regional party list. All 17 regions of Québec would have been guaranteed at least one MNA.[23]


Federal region Provincial region District MNAs Regional MNAs % of
electors 		% of
MNAs
Eastern Quebec Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine 2 1 1.2 % 2.4 %
Eastern Quebec Bas-Saint-Laurent 2 1 2.6 % 2.4 %
Quebec City Capitale-Nationale 7 4 9.2 % 8.8 %
Quebec City Chaudière-Appalaches 4 3 5.4 % 5.4 %
Eastern Townships Centre-du-Québec 3 2 3.1 % 4.0 %
Eastern Townships Estrie 3 2 4.0 % 4.0 %
Montérégie Montérégie 14 8 18.9 % 17.6 %
Hochalaga (East Montreal, West
Montreal, North Montreal & Laval) 		Montréal 16 8 21.5 % 19.2 %
Hochalaga (East Montreal, West
Montreal, North Montreal & Laval) 		Laval 4 2 5.0 % 4.8 %
Côte-Nord and Saguenay Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean 3 2 3.6 % 4.0 %
Côte-Nord and Saguenay Côte-Nord 1 1 1.1 % 1.6 %
Central Quebec Mauricie 3 2 3.5 % 4.0 %
Central Quebec Lanaudière 5 3 6.3 % 6.4 %
The Laurentides, Outaouais
and Northern Quebec 		Laurentides 6 3 7.6 % 7.2 %
The Laurentides, Outaouais
and Northern Quebec 		Outaouais 4 2 4.6 % 4.8 %
The Laurentides, Outaouais
and Northern Quebec 		Abitibi-Témiscamingue 2 1 1.9 % 2.4 %
The Laurentides, Outaouais
and Northern Quebec 		Nord-du-Québec 1 0 0.5 % 0.8 %
TOTAL 80 45

Notes[]

  1. ^ Québec solidaire designates Nadeau-Dubois and Manon Massé as co-spokespeople. Nadeau-Dubois is the person most likely to be the party's candidate for premier during the next general election. The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Gaétan Châteauneuf.[1]

References[]

  1. ^ "Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Retrieved June 20, 2017.
  2. ^ An Act to amend the Election Act for the purpose of establishing fixed-date elections, L.Q. 2013, c. 13, s. 3
  3. ^ Jump up to: a b Hinkson, Kamila (October 4, 2018). "Philippe Couillard steps down, making way for a 'new generation' of Quebec Liberals". CBC News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b Authier, Philip (October 5, 2018). "New interim Liberal leader Pierre Arcand takes aim at CAQ and QS". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b Stober, Eric; Laframboise, Kalina (October 1, 2018). "Parti Québécois Leader Jean-François Lisée steps down after losing own riding of Rosemont". Global News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b "Pascal Bérubé named interim Parti Québécois leader". CBC News. October 9, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  7. ^ "Roberval elects CAQ candidate Nancy Guillemette". CTV News. December 11, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  8. ^ "Guy Ouellette expelled from Liberal caucus". CBC News. October 5, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  9. ^ "'Destroyed' by investigation, Guy Ouellette sues Quebec government for $550K". CBC News. November 22, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  10. ^ "'They've lost their way': PQ MNA Catherine Fournier quits party". CTV Montreal. March 11, 2019. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  11. ^ Authier, Philip (2019-08-31). "Former Liberal minister Sébastien Proulx announces he's leaving politics". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  12. ^ "Liberal stronghold in Quebec City falls to the CAQ in by-election". CTV News Montreal, December 2, 2019.
  13. ^ "Harold LeBel removed from Parti Québécois caucus following arrest". Rimouski: Global News. December 15, 2020. Retrieved April 20, 2021.
  14. ^ "Quebec MNA out of CAQ caucus after flouting coronavirus rules". Rivière-du-Loup: Global News. December 17, 2020. Retrieved April 20, 2021.
  15. ^ "Denis Tardif réintègre le caucus caquiste" (in French). Rivière-du-Loup: Le Journal de Québec. April 12, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2021.
  16. ^ "Rousseau MNA Louis-Charles Thouin withdraws from CAQ caucus amid ethics probe".
  17. ^ Roy, Sylvain. "Sylvain Roy on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 4 June 2021.
  18. ^ "Claire Samson booted from CAQ caucus over donation to rival party". June 16, 2021. Retrieved June 17, 2021.
  19. ^ "Quebec Liberal Party suspends its leadership contest due to COVID-19 pandemic". CTV News. Canadian Press. March 20, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
  20. ^ "Dominique Anglade couronnée à la tête du Parti libéral". TVA Nouvelles. Retrieved 2020-05-11.
  21. ^ Montpetit, Jonathan (28 April 2021). "Quebec backtracks on promise, no referendum on electoral reform in 2022". CBC Montreal.
  22. ^ "Bill 39 – An act to establish a new electoral system". National Assembly of Québec. Retrieved 2019-10-22.
  23. ^ [1]
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