Future election in Ontario
2022 Ontario general election Opinion polls
Leader
Doug Ford
Andrea Horwath
Steven Del Duca
Party
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Liberal
Leader since
March 10, 2018
March 7, 2009
March 7, 2020
Leader's seat
Etobicoke North
Hamilton Centre
Running in Vaughan—Woodbridge [1]
Last election
76 seats, 40.50%
40 seats, 33.56%
7 seats, 19.59%
Current seats
69
40
7
Seats needed
23
56
NBP
Leader
Mike Schreiner
Jim Karahalios
Derek Sloan [2]
Party
Green
New Blue
Ontario Party
Leader since
May 16, 2009
November 8, 2020
December 16, 2021
Leader's seat
Guelph
TBA
TBA
Last election
1 seat, 4.60%
pre-creation
0 seats, 0.04%
Current seats
1
1
1
Seats needed
62
62
62
The 2022 Ontario general election will be held on or before June 2, 2022. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3] The Legislative Assembly of Ontario can be dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggers a snap election . Since the current government has a majority , it is a near-certainty that any non-confidence vote would not pass. In terms of an unexpected snap election, on October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[4] [5]
Standings [ ]
Note that for purposes of the administration of the Assembly, parties with fewer than 12 seats are not recognized, and their members are treated as independent MPPs.[6]
Timeline [ ]
2018 [ ]
2019 [ ]
February 21: Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Progressive Conservative MPP Randy Hillier is suspended from the caucus indefinitely for allegedly making disrespectful comments to parents of children with autism.[13] Hillier was officially expelled from the PC caucus on March 15, a day after he released a statement via Twitter suggesting his suspension was due to tensions between himself and the premier's senior advisors.[14]
July 31: Ottawa—Vanier Liberal MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers resigns her seat to become principal of Massey College .[15]
September 20: Orléans Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde resigns her seat in the provincial legislature to run as the Liberal candidate in Orléans for the 2019 federal election .[16]
2020 [ ]
2021 [ ]
Candidates [ ]
See also: Candidates of the 43rd Ontario general election
Incumbents not running for reelection [ ]
Opinion polls [ ]
Polling organisation
Last date of polling
Source
PC
NDP
Liberal
Green
Other
Polling type
Sample size
Margin of error
Lead
Leger
December 13, 2021
PDF
38
28
25
5
5
Online
1,000
±3.1%
10
EKOS
November 25, 2021
HTML
32.8
23.1
28.3
5.2
10.5
IVR
569
±4.1%
4.5
Innovative Research Group
November 17, 2021
PDF
34.8
27
32.6
3.4
2.2
Online
1000
N/A
2.2
Leger
November 14, 2021
PDF
34
26
31
6
3
Online
1,001
±3.1%
3
Leger
October 10, 2021
PDF
35
25
30
5
5
Online
1,003
±3.1%
5
Angus Reid
October 3, 2021
PDF
34
32
25
4
5
Online
910
N/A
2
Angus Reid
June 7, 2021
HTML
37
33
22
6
3
Online
791
±2%
4
Leger
May 23, 2021
HTML
34
25
26
9
n/a
Online
1,001
±3.1%
8
Mainstreet Research
May 16, 2021
PDF
33
28
27
6
6
Online
958
±3%
5
Campaign Research
May 8, 2021
HTML
36
25
28
7
4
Online
2,009
±2%
8
Innovative Research Group
May 4, 2021
PDF
32
22
36
8
2
Online
481
N/A
4
Abacus Data
April 21, 2021
HTML
34
23
35
5
2
Online
1,007
±3.1%
1
Innovative Research Group
April 20, 2021
PDF
30
26
35
8
1
Online
800
N/A
5
Abacus Data
April 14, 2021
HTML
34
23
34
5
4
Online
817
±3.5%
0
Innovative Research Group
April 13, 2021
PDF
32
24
33
8
2
Online
704
N/A
1
EKOS
April 12, 2021
HTML
34.6
23.5
29.9
8.9
3
IVR
1204
±2.8%
4.7
Campaign Research
April 6, 2021
HTML
41
22
24
10
2
Online
1,886
±2.3%
17
Leger
March 22, 2021
PDF
38
28
23
8
3
Online
1,002
±3.1%
10
Campaign Research
March 11, 2021
HTML
43
25
20
9
3
Online
1,344
±2.7%
18
Mainstreet Research
February 16, 2021
HTML
43
22
25
6
4
IVR
1,011
±3.08%
18
Campaign Research
January 31, 2021
HTML
44
25
21
8
3
Online
1,427
±2.6%
19
Abacus Data
January 12, 2021
HTML
34
25
29
8
3
Online
793
±3.48%
5
Mainstreet Research
December 5, 2020
PDF
46.2
23.4
19.9
6.2
4.3
IVR
1,014
±2.94%
22.8
Campaign Research
December 3, 2020
PDF
45
20
24
8
5
Online
1,001
±3%
21
Angus Reid
November 30, 2020
HTML
42
28
22
5
3
Online
1,049
N/A
14
Campaign Research
November 2, 2020
HTML
48
21
23
7
1
Online
1,118
±3%
25
Abacus Data
October 30, 2020
HTML
36
25
29
7
3
Online
1,000
±3.1%
7
Abacus Data
October 12, 2020
HTML
36
29
26
6
2
Online
1,000
±3.1%
7
Campaign Research
October 2, 2020
HTML
46
24
20
9
2
Online
1,017
±3%
22
Campaign Research
September 3, 2020
HTML
48
22
24
6
2
Online
1,129
±3%
24
Angus Reid
September 1, 2020
PDF
45
28
22
4
1
Online
1,026
±3%
17
Campaign Research
August 13, 2020
HTML
41
23
26
8
3
Online
2,013
±2%
15
Innovative Research Group
July 20, 2020
PDF
36
18
37
8
1
Online
974
N/A
1
Campaign Research
July 10, 2020
HTML
45
20
27
7
1
Online
1,395
±3%
18
Innovative Research Group
June 23, 2020
PDF
31
21
39
9
1
Online
838
N/A
8
Mainstreet Research
June 7, 2020
HTML
41.8
23.0
27.7
5.5
2.0
IVR
1,068
±3%
14.1
Campaign Research
June 2, 2020
PDF
44
22
27
6
2
Online
1,512
±2.5%
17
Innovative Research Group
June 1, 2020
PDF
33
20
38
9
0
Online
698
N/A
5
Angus Reid
May 24, 2020
HTML
43
26
25
6
1
Online
1,061
N/A
17
Abacus Data
May 22, 2020
HTML
36
19
38
5
2
Online
597
±4.1%
2
Innovative Research Group
May 5, 2020
PDF
34
18
39
7
1
Online
791
N/A
5
EKOS
March 26, 2020
HTML
31.5
17.9
40.4
7.1
3.1
IVR
774
±3.5%
8.9
Mainstreet Research
March 20, 2020
HTML
33.1
23.2
33.0
6.9
3.8
IVR
1,017
±2.73%
0.1
7 March 2020
Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Campaign Research
March 5, 2020
PDF
32
28
28
10
2
Online
1,144
±2.9%
4
Angus Reid
February 28, 2020
PDF
36
31
24
8
1
Online
1,051
±3.0%
5
Campaign Research
February 26, 2020
PDF
32
28
29
9
3
Online
1,003
±3.1%
3
Campaign Research
February 9, 2020
PDF
30
26
30
11
3
Online
1,536
±2.5%
0
EKOS
January 19, 2020
HTML
31.1
21.2
36.2
9.1
2.3
IVR
634
±3.9%
5.1
Pollara
January 11, 2020
PDF
29
27
33
9
2
Online
2,198
±2.1%
4
EKOS
December 10, 2019
PDF
29.9
24.4
32.4
9.4
3.9
IVR
811
±3.4%
2.5
Campaign Research
September 9, 2019
PDF
32
27
28
11
2
Online
957
±3.17%
4
Corbett Communications
August 16, 2019
PDF
30
28
30
11
2
Online
1,099
±3.0%
0
Corbett Communications
July 10, 2019
PDF
28
26
28
15
3
Online
936
±3.0%
0
Corbett Communications
June 6, 2019
PDF
32
27
26
13
1
Online
1,555
±3.0%
5
Mainstreet Research
May 22, 2019
HTML
22.4
24.2
39.9
11.7
1.8
IVR
996
±3.1%
15.7
Ipsos
May 21, 2019
HTML
30
29
32
10[a]
Online
1,000
±3.5%
2
Corbett Communications
May 3, 2019
PDF
35
25
27
12
1
Online
1,836
±2.4%
8
Pollara
May 1, 2019
PDF
30
31
26
11
1
Online
1,527
±2.5%
1
Mainstreet Research
March 22, 2019
HTML
34.4
26.6
26.0
9.4
3.6
IVR
1,290
±2.73%
7.8
Innovative Research Group
January 24, 2019
PDF
33
23
36
7
1
Online
751
3
Mainstreet Research
January 17, 2019
HTML
41.4
27.0
22.6
7.0
2.2
IVR
1,127
±2.92%
14.4
EKOS
December 3, 2018
PDF
34.3
26.1
28.0
9.4
2.3
IVR
1,025
±3.1%
6.3
Campaign Research
November 9, 2018
HTML
34
25
32
7
2
Online
1,830
±2.3%
2
Mainstreet Research
November 7, 2018
HTML
42.2
26.5
21.3
6.4
3.5
IVR
1,229
±2.79%
15.7
Innovative Research Group
October 28, 2018
PDF
35
25
32
7
1
Online
1,628
3
Abacus Data
October 1, 2018
HTML
36
29
24
8
3
Online
1,500
7
Mainstreet Research
July 17, 2018
HTML
41.7
27.8
21.3
6.7
2.5
IVR
1,861
±2.27%
13.9
29 June 2018
Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario
Innovative Research Group
June 21, 2018
PDF
37
36
19
7
2
Telephone
607
±4.0%
1
14 June 2018
John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
7 June 2018
Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
2018 election
June 7, 2018
N/A
40.50
33.56
19.59
4.60
1.75
N/A
5,744,860
N/A
6.94
Target seats [ ]
Below are listed all the electoral districts in which the winning candidate won by a margin of less than 5%. The Green Party's most marginal opportunity was in Parry Sound—Muskoka where the party finished 3rd with the PCs having a 28.05% margin.
PC targets [ ]
NDP targets [ ]
Liberal targets [ ]
Notes
^ Includes the Ontario Green Party.
References [ ]
^ Benzie, Robert (March 7, 2020). "Vaughan's Del Duca wins Ontario Liberal leadership on first ballot" . YorkRegion.com . Torstar. Metroland Media. Retrieved April 19, 2020 .
^ a b Shreve, Ellwood (22 December 2021). "Chatham-Kent—Leamington MPP Rick Nicholls officially joins the Ontario Party" . Chatham Daily News . Postmedia . Retrieved 22 December 2021 .
^ Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018" . Toronto Star . Retrieved October 31, 2016 .
^ "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford" . Toronto Star . September 28, 2020.
^ "Hansard, October 5, 2020" . www.ola.org . October 5, 2020.
^ "Ontario government to raise threshold for official party status" . 13 November 2018.
^ Janus, Andrea (June 7, 2018). "Kathleen Wynne ready to 'pass the torch,' quits as Ontario Liberal leader" . CBC News. Retrieved June 15, 2018 .
^ "Ottawa-area MPP John Fraser selected interim Ontario Liberal leader" . CBC News. June 14, 2018. Retrieved June 15, 2018 .
^ Crawley, Mike (June 29, 2018). "Doug Ford's 'truly humbled' as new Ontario PC government sworn in at Queen's Park" . CBC News. Retrieved June 29, 2018 .
^ "Ted Arnott new Speaker of the Ontario Legislative Assembly" . Toronto Star. July 11, 2018. Retrieved July 11, 2018 .
^ Goodfield, Kayla (November 7, 2018). "Ford confirms PC MPP Jim Wilson resigned over sexual misconduct allegation" . CP24 . Retrieved November 7, 2018 .
^ "MPP Amanda Simard leaving PCs, will sit as an independent" . CBC News . November 29, 2018. Retrieved November 29, 2018 .
^ "MPP Randy Hillier suspended from Ontario PC caucus after autism debate" . CBC News . February 21, 2019. Retrieved February 21, 2019 .
^ "Randy Hillier expelled from Ontario PC caucus" . CBC News . March 15, 2019. Retrieved March 15, 2019 .
^ "Liberal MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers officially resigns" . Ottawa Citizen . July 31, 2019. Retrieved July 31, 2019 .
^ "Liberals nominate Lalonde in Orléans riding" . Ottawa Citizen . September 19, 2019.
^ Ferguson, Rob; Benzie, Robert (January 16, 2020). "Amanda Simard joins Liberals a year after quitting Doug Ford's Tories over French-language cuts" . Toronto Star .
^ Holder, Gord (February 27, 2020). "Liberals hold Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa-Orleans seats in provincial byelections" . Ottawa Citizen . Archived from the original on March 8, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2020 .
^ Stone, Laura (March 7, 2020). "Steven Del Duca wins Ontario Liberal leadership race" . Globe and Mail . Archived from the original on March 8, 2020.
^ "Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios booted from PC caucus after voting against COVID-19 emergency bill" . CBC News . July 21, 2020.
^ "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford" . Toronto Star . September 28, 2020.
^ "Hansard, October 5, 2020" . www.ola.org . October 5, 2020.
^ "Premier Doug Ford Turfs MPP Roman Baber from Tory Caucus for Opposing COVID-19 Lockdown" . Toronto Star . January 15, 2021.
^ Belinda C. Karahalios , Ontario Legislative Assembly, retrieved January 27, 2021
^ "Liberal MPP Michael Coteau seeks federal nomination in Don Valley East" . Toronto Star . March 31, 2021. Retrieved June 20, 2021 .
^ McGrath, John Michael (August 16, 2021). "Why Michael Coteau wants to trade provincial prominence for the federal backbench" . TVO . Retrieved 1 October 2021 .
^ Aguilar, Bryann (August 19, 2021). "MPP Rick Nicholls booted from Ontario PC caucus after refusing to get COVID-19 vaccine" . CP24 .
^ "Progressive Conservative MPP who 'misrepresented' her COVID-19 vaccination status resigns from caucus" . Retrieved 22 October 2021 .
^ "Durham MPP removed from legislative role after misrepresenting vaccination status: province" . Retrieved 22 October 2021 .
^ Risdon, Melanie (8 November 2021). "Hillier announces bid for Ontario premiership under PPC banner" . Western Standard . Retrieved 8 November 2021 .
^ Rushowy, Kristin (8 November 2021). "MPP Randy Hillier apologizes for baselessly linking deaths to COVID-19 vaccinations" . Northumberland News . Retrieved 8 November 2021 .
^ Devoy, Desmond (2021-12-03). "MPP Randy Hillier to head new, Ontario First Party" . The Toronto Star . ISSN 0319-0781 . Retrieved 2021-12-04 .
^ "Former MP Derek Sloan to lead Ontario Party - Kingston | Globalnews.ca" . Global News . Retrieved 2021-12-15 .
^ Risdon, Melanie (2021-12-14). "Ontario Party selects former MP as its new leader" . The Western Standard . Retrieved 2021-12-15 .
^ Herhalt, Chris (October 20, 2020). "Former Premier Kathleen Wynne not running again in 2022" . cp24.com . Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
^ "Liberals in Don Valley West Nominate Stephanie Bowman as 2022 Ontario Liberal Party Candidate" . Ontario Liberal Party . Retrieved 2021-10-21 .
^ Benzie, Robert (September 24, 2020). "MPP Jim Wilson won't seek re-election after ejection from PC caucus" . thestar.com .
^ Nanji, Sabrina (December 9, 2020). "' Not an option': Gila Martow won't run for PCs in 2022, whether or not she makes the jump to federal politics" . politicstoday.news .
^ "Windsor MPP Percy Hatfield won't run in next year's election, saying it's 'time for new voices' " . CBC . July 30, 2021. Retrieved July 30, 2021 .
^ Doucet, Bill (August 25, 2021). "Kitchener South-Hespeler MPP Amy Fee will not seek re-election" . The Record . Retrieved 1 October 2021 .
^ "The Ontario PC Party announces candidate for Kitchener South-Hespeler riding in provincial election" . CityNews Kitchener . 21 September 2021. Retrieved 22 October 2021 .
^ Shreve, Ellwood (August 24, 2021). "Nicholls won't seek re-election following removal from PC caucus" . Chatham-Kent This Week . Retrieved October 5, 2021 .
^ "Progressive Conservative MPP who 'misrepresented' her COVID-19 vaccination status resigns from caucus" . Retrieved 22 October 2021 .
^ Kenny, Casey. "Breaking: Pettapiece won't seek re-election as MPP for Perth-Wellington" . www.mystratfordnow.com . Retrieved 17 November 2021 .
^ Racine, Francis. "SDSG MPP Jim McDonell to retire in 2022" . www.ottawacitizen.com . Retrieved 24 November 2021 .
^ Wilson, Katelyn (2 November 2021). "Parry Sound Muskoka MPP Norm Miller not seeking re-election" . CTV News Barrie . Retrieved 18 November 2021 .
^ "After more than a decade at Queen's Park, Essex MPP Taras Natyshak won't seek re-election" . CBC News . 10 December 2021. Retrieved 14 December 2021 .
^ "NEW: Another Ontario NDP MPP announces he's not running in next June's election, Kingston and the Islands' @IanArthurMPP, first elected in 2018. Says he will be stepping back "to pursue business opportunities in Kingston." #onpoli" . Laura Stone . December 14, 2021. Retrieved December 14, 2021 .
External links [ ]
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