43rd Manitoba general election
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57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 43rd Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on or before October 3, 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives will attempt to retain the majority they won in the 2019 election. On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced he won't seek reelection. Heather Stefanson was elected to succeed him.[1] [2]
Legislature summary[]
Party | Leader | Candidates | Seats | Popular vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | Current | Next | +/- | Votes | % | +/- | ||||
Progressive Conservative | Heather Stefanson | – | 36 | 35 | ||||||
New Democratic | Wab Kinew | 6 | 18 | 17 | ||||||
Liberal | Dougald Lamont | – | 3 | 3 | ||||||
Green | James Beddome | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Manitoba Party | Wayne Sturby | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Manitoba First | Douglas Petrick | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Communist | Frank Komarniski | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Independents | 1 | – | – | – | – | |||||
Vacant | 2 | – | ||||||||
Blank and invalid votes | ||||||||||
Total | 7 | 57 | 57 | – | ||||||
Registered voters/turnout |
Incumbents not running for reelection[]
Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee | New MLA | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Midland | Blaine Pedersen[3] |
– |
Candidates[]
Opinion polls[]
- Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Pollster | Dates conducted |
Last date of polling |
Sample size |
Polling method |
Margin of error |
PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probe Research[p 1] | Nov 23–Dec 5, 2021 | Dec 5, 2021 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 37% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 5% |
Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | |||||||||||
Innovative Research[p 2] | Sep 24–Oct 5, 2021 | Oct 5, 2021 | 678 | Online | N/A | 41% | 32% | 18% | 5% | 3% | 9% |
Angus Reid[p 3] | Sep 29–October 3, 2021 | October 3, 2021 | 435 | Online | N/A | 38% | 43% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 5% |
Probe Research[p 4] | Sep 7–20, 2021 | Sep 20, 2021 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 35% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 8% | 7% |
Probe Research[p 5] | Jun 2–11, 2021 | Jun 11, 2021 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 29% | 47% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 18% |
Angus Reid[p 6] | Jun 2–7, 2021 | Jun 7, 2021 | 504 | Online | 4.0% | 39% | 42% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
Probe Research[p 7] | Mar 10–26, 2021 | Mar 26, 2021 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 6% |
Probe Research[p 8] | Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020 | Dec 4, 2020 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 37% | 41% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4% |
Angus Reid[p 9] | Nov 24–30, 2020 | Nov 30, 2020 | 420 | Online | 4.8% | 39% | 40% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
Probe Research[p 10] | Sep 8–17, 2020 | Sep 17, 2020 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 43% | 34% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 9% |
EKOS[p 11] | Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020 | Aug 26, 2020 | 1,154 | HD-IVR | 2.9% | 44% | 31% | 12% | 9% | 4% | 13% |
EKOS[p 12] | Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020 | Jul 23, 2020 | 1,691 | HD-IVR | 2.4% | 43% | 27% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 16% |
Probe Research[p 13] | Jun 2–11, 2020 | Jun 11, 2020 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
Probe Research[p 14] | Mar 10–24, 2020 | Mar 24, 2020 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 10% |
Innovative Research[p 15] | May 29–June 3, 2020 | June 3, 2020 | 200 | Online | N/A | 38% | 26% | 26% | 10% | N/A | 12% |
Probe Research[p 16] | Mar 10–24, 2020 | Mar 24, 2020 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 10% |
Probe Research[p 17] | Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019 | Dec 10, 2019 | 1,000 | Telephone | 3.1% | 42% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 6% |
2019 general election | Sep 10, 2019 | — | — | — | — | 47.1% | 31.4% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 0.6% | 15.7% |
Opinion poll sources[]
- ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
- ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF).
- ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org.
- ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
- ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
- ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. 9 June 2021.
- ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
- ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of COVID-19: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
- ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
- ^ Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
References[]
- ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
- ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
- ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (15 July 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 July 2021 – via Twitter.
Categories:
- 2020s elections in Canada
- Elections in Manitoba
- 2020s in Manitoba
- Future elections in Canada