43rd Manitoba general election

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43rd Manitoba general election
← 2019 On or before October 3, 2023
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Heather Stefanson.jpg
Wab Kinew (cropped).jpg
Leader Heather Stefanson Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since October 30, 2021 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Tuxedo Fort Rouge
Last election 36 seats, 47.07% 18 seats, 31.38%
Current seats 35 17
Seats needed Steady Increase11
  Dougald Lamont, Manitoba Liberal Leader.jpg James Beddome, Leader of the Green Party of Manitoba in 2016 (3x4 cropped).jpg
Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat St. Boniface No seat
Last election 3 seats, 14.48% 0 seats, 6.24%
Current seats 3 0
Seats needed Increase26 Increase29
Incumbent Premier

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative



The 43rd Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on or before October 3, 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives will attempt to retain the majority they won in the 2019 election. On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced he won't seek reelection. Heather Stefanson was elected to succeed him.[1] [2]

Legislature summary[]

Manitoba Legislature
Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Current Next +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson – 36 35
New Democratic Wab Kinew 6 18 17
Liberal Dougald Lamont – 3 3
Green James Beddome – – – – –
  Manitoba Party Wayne Sturby – – – – –
  Manitoba First Douglas Petrick – – – – –
Communist Frank Komarniski – – – – –
  Independents 1 – – – –
  Vacant 2 –
Blank and invalid votes
Total 7 57 57 –
Registered voters/turnout

Incumbents not running for reelection[]

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MLA
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[3]
 –

Candidates[]

See also: List of candidates of the 43rd Manitoba general election

Opinion polls[]

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Pollster Dates
conducted 		Last date
of polling 		Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Margin
of error 		PC NDP Liberal Green Others Lead
Probe Research[p 1] Nov 23–Dec 5, 2021 Dec 5, 2021 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 5%
October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research[p 2] Sep 24–Oct 5, 2021 Oct 5, 2021 678 Online N/A 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% 9%
Angus Reid[p 3] Sep 29–October 3, 2021 October 3, 2021 435 Online N/A 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% 5%
Probe Research[p 4] Sep 7–20, 2021 Sep 20, 2021 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 7%
Probe Research[p 5] Jun 2–11, 2021 Jun 11, 2021 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 18%
Angus Reid[p 6] Jun 2–7, 2021 Jun 7, 2021 504 Online 4.0% 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 3%
Probe Research[p 7] Mar 10–26, 2021 Mar 26, 2021 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 6%
Probe Research[p 8] Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020 Dec 4, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 4%
Angus Reid[p 9] Nov 24–30, 2020 Nov 30, 2020 420 Online 4.8% 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 1%
Probe Research[p 10] Sep 8–17, 2020 Sep 17, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 9%
EKOS[p 11] Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020 Aug 26, 2020 1,154 HD-IVR 2.9% 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 13%
EKOS[p 12] Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020 Jul 23, 2020 1,691 HD-IVR 2.4% 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 16%
Probe Research[p 13] Jun 2–11, 2020 Jun 11, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 2%
Probe Research[p 14] Mar 10–24, 2020 Mar 24, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 10%
Innovative Research[p 15] May 29–June 3, 2020 June 3, 2020 200 Online N/A 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A 12%
Probe Research[p 16] Mar 10–24, 2020 Mar 24, 2020 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 10%
Probe Research[p 17] Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019 Dec 10, 2019 1,000 Telephone 3.1% 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 6%
2019 general election Sep 10, 2019 — — — — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% 15.7%

Opinion poll sources[]

  1. ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
  2. ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF).
  3. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org.
  4. ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
  5. ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
  6. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. 9 June 2021.
  7. ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com.
  8. ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  9. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  10. ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  11. ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  12. ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  13. ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  14. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  15. ^ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of COVID-19: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  16. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  17. ^ Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2021-01-13.

References[]

  1. ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  2. ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  3. ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (15 July 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 July 2021 – via Twitter.
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