45th Canadian federal election

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45th Canadian federal election
← 2021 On or before 20 October 2025 (2025-10-20)
338 seats in the House of Commons[a]
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Candice Bergen - 2017 (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Candice Bergen
(interim) 		Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since 14 April 2013 2 February 2022[c] 17 January 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Portage—Lisgar Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 160 seats, 32.62% 119 seats, 33.74% 32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats 159 119 32
Seats needed Increase 11 Increase 51 N/A[b]
 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Amita Kuttner media official cropped.jpeg
Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Amita Kuttner
(interim) 		Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since 1 October 2017 24 November 2021 14 September 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South N/A[e] N/A[d]
Last election 25 seats, 17.82% 2 seats, 2.33% 0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats 25 2 0
Seats needed Increase 145 Increase 168 Increase 170
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, although the Constitution Act, 1867 is the governing legislation and requires elections no further apart than every five years.[1] Since the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament due to a motion of no confidence in the government or at the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election.[2][3][4]

Background[]

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on 20 September that year, resulted in the incumbent Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, retaining government and their minority status parliament, whilst also picking up five more seats[f] than they had at dissolution.[5] On 27 September 2021, Annamie Paul announced that she was resigning as the Green Party of Canada leader;[6] on 10 November 2021 she stated she had formally resigned and left the Green Party.[7]

The Constitution Act, 1867 requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution of seats following each decennial Canadian census.[8] The 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and is expected to be completed in September 2023.[9] On 15 October 2021, the Chief Electoral Officer announced that allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[10] Notwithstanding this, Parliament retains the power to modify the redistricting process as occurred in the last redistribution.[11][12]

Parties and standings[]

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal on the ballot, despite being disavowed during the campaign, and sits as an independent.[13]

Name Ideology Position Leader 2021 result Current standing
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
159 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism 		Centre-right to right-wing Candice Bergen

(Interim)

33.74%
119 / 338
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism 		Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
25 / 338
Green Green politics Amita Kuttner
(Interim)
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
1 / 338

Timeline[]

See also: 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2021–)
House of Commons - Changes in seats held
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Spadina—Fort York November 22, 2021 Kevin Vuong █ Liberal Excluded from caucus █ Independent

2021[]

  • 27 September – Annamie Paul announced that she was beginning the process of resigning as leader of the Green Party.[14]
  • 10 November – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[7] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[15][16]
  • 15 November – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[17] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[17] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[18]
  • 24 November – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[19][20]
  • 5 December – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[21][22]

2022[]

Opinion polls[]

Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Next election
Opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes[]

  1. ^ A redistribution is required to take effect by 2024, which will increase the number of seats.
  2. ^ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus they currently cannot gain a majority in parliament.
  3. ^ Bergen became interim Conservative Party of Canada leader after Erin O'Toole was removed as leader following a caucus vote in which he lost 73–45. She is expected to serve as interim leader until September 10, 2022, when a new leader is to be elected.
  4. ^ Ran in Beauce, lost.
  5. ^ Ran in Burnaby North—Seymour in 2019, lost. Kuttner did not run in 2021.
  6. ^ While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, meaning he will sit as an Independent in the House of Commons.

References[]

  1. ^ "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. 6 November 2006. Retrieved 29 July 2011.
  2. ^ Aiello, Rachel (24 October 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
  3. ^ Harris, Kathleen (21 October 2020). "Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons". CBC News. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  4. ^ Coyne, Andrew (28 October 2020). "What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  5. ^ "Canada: Trudeau's Liberals win minority government, CBC projects". Al Jazeera. 21 September 2021. Archived from the original on 21 September 2021. Retrieved 21 September 2021.
  6. ^ Tasker, John Paul (27 September 2021). "Annamie Paul is stepping down as Green Party leader". CBC News. Retrieved 27 September 2021.
  7. ^ a b "Annamie Paul officially quits as Green leader, will end membership in party". CBC News. 10 November 2021.
  8. ^ Canada, Elections (13 August 2021). "Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2022". www.elections.ca. Retrieved 16 August 2021.
  9. ^ Canada, Elections (12 August 2021). "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts". www.elections.ca. Retrieved 16 August 2021.
  10. ^ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. 15 October 2021. Retrieved 15 October 2021.
  11. ^ Bryden, Joan (5 November 2021). "Ottawa needs support from majority of provinces to guarantee Quebec's share of Commons seats". CBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2021.
  12. ^ Qualter, Terence; Wilson, John (18 September 2015). "Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts". The Canadian Encyclopedia. Retrieved 5 November 2021.
  13. ^ "Expelled by Liberals, Kevin Vuong wins Toronto riding and says he will keep the seat". National Post. 23 September 2021. Retrieved 24 September 2021.
  14. ^ Aiello, Rachel (27 September 2021). "Annamie Paul resigns as Green Party leader". CTV News. Retrieved 10 November 2021.
  15. ^ Thurton, David (16 November 2021). "Green Party accepts Annamie Paul's resignation as leader". CBC News. Retrieved 17 November 2021.
  16. ^ Ballingall, Alex (15 November 2021). "Green Party formally accepts Annamie Paul's resignation as leader". Toronto Star. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  17. ^ a b Tasker, John Paul; Thibedeau, Hannah (15 November 2021). "Conservative senator launches petition to oust Erin O'Toole as leader". CBC News. Retrieved 17 November 2021.
  18. ^ Tasker, John Paul; Thibedeau, Hannah; Dhanraj, Travis (16 November 2021). "O'Toole kicks senator out of Conservative caucus after she questioned his leadership". CBC News. Retrieved 17 November 2021.
  19. ^ "Green Party appoints Amita Kuttner as Interim Leader". Green Party of Canada. 24 November 2021.
  20. ^ Woolf, Marie (25 November 2021). "Greens pick astrophysicist Amita Kuttner as interim leader, 1st leader who is trans". CBC News. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  21. ^ "Maxime Bernier Overwhelmingly Confirmed as PPC Leader by Membership". People's Party of Canada. 5 December 2021.
  22. ^ Paas-Lang, Christian (5 December 2021). "Maxime Bernier retains leadership of People's Party of Canada after review vote". CBC News. Retrieved 5 December 2021.
  23. ^ Tasker, John Paul (2 February 2022). "Conservative MPs vote to remove Erin O'Toole as leader". CBC News. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  24. ^ Aziz, Saba (2 February 2022). "Conservatives elect Candice Bergen as interim party leader". Global News.
  25. ^ "Bergen advised against telling truckers to leave Ottawa, said protests should be made 'PM's problem'". CTVNews. 3 February 2022. Retrieved 5 February 2022.
  26. ^ Paas-Lang, Christian (13 March 2022). "How the rules could help shape who becomes the next Conservative leader". CBC News. Retrieved 14 March 2022.
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