Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election

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Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
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Opinion polls

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.

National polls[]

Pre-campaign period[]

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link CPC LPC NDP BQ PPC GPC Others[b] Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data March 25, 2022 [1] 33 31 17 7 6 4 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 2
March 22, 2022 The Liberals and NDP enter into a confidence-and-supply agreement.
Nanos Research March 11, 2022 [2] 29.3 32.1 22.2 6.4 5.0 4.9 N/A ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 2.8
Leger March 6, 2022 [3] 28 33 22 8 5 3 1 ±2.5 pp 1,591 online 5
Nanos Research February 25, 2022 [4] 32.2 30.3 17.7 N/A 5.4 6.8 N/A ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 1.9
Abacus Data February 22, 2022 [5] 31 31 20 8 6 3 1 ±1.4 pp 5,200 online 0
Ipsos February 21, 2022 [6] 32 32 23 6 4 3 1 ±3.5 pp 1,001 online 0
Mainstreet Research February 17, 2022 [7] 38.7 30.6 14.6 6.3 6.2 1.9 1.7 ±2.7 pp 1,323 IVR 8.1
Nanos Research February 11, 2022 [8] 31.1 30.6 16.9 7.1 7.1 6.4 N/A ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 0.5
Abacus Data February 8, 2022 [9] 30 33 19 8 6 3 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 3
Leger February 6, 2022 [10] 29 33 21 8 4 4 0 ±2.49 pp 1,546 online 4
February 2, 2022 Erin O'Toole is removed as leader of the Conservative Party. Candice Bergen is named interim leader.
Nanos Research January 28, 2022 [11] 30.4 29.9 20.7 N/A 6.7 5.8 N/A ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0.5
Mainstreet Research January 23, 2022 [12] 29.3 29.4 16.7 5.8 12.7 3.2 2.8 ±2.3 pp 1,813 IVR 0.1
Leger January 23, 2022 [13] 31 34 18 7 6 3 2 ±2.51 pp 1,525 online 3
Nanos Research January 21, 2022 [14] 29.4 28.4 22.3 5.6 N/A 7.0 N/A ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 1.0
EKOS January 17, 2022 [15] 29.7 30.3 19.5 5.9 9.1 4.5 1 ±1.9 pp 2,612 IVR 0.6
Nanos Research January 14, 2022 [16] 28.5 28.2 24.3 6.1 5.3 6.3 N/A ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0.3
Angus Reid January 12, 2022 [17] 29 34 20 5 6 3 2 ±2.0 pp 5,002 online 5
Abacus Data January 12, 2022 [18] 30 32 19 8 7 3 1 ±2.089 pp 2,200 online 2
Nanos Research January 7, 2022 [19] 29.0 30.6 21.4 6.2 5.7 6.1 N/A ±3.0 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 1.6
Discover by Navigator January 5, 2022 [20] 29 32 22 6 7 4 N/A N/A 2,513 online 3
EKOS December 21, 2021 [21] 25 32 23 4 10 4 2 ±3.1 pp 1,015 IVR 7
Nanos Research December 10, 2021 [22] 30.4 33.3 19.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 N/A ±3.0 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 2.9
Leger December 5, 2021 [23] 29 36 19 7 5 3 1 ±2.49 pp 1,547 online 7
Mainstreet Research November 30, 2021 [24] 30.3 33.5 15.7 5.5 10.0 3.2 1.9 ±2.36 pp 1,719 IVR 3.2
Abacus Data November 30, 2021 [25] 30 32 20 8 6 3 1 ±2.2 pp 2,025 online 2
Angus Reid November 29, 2021 [26] 29 35 20 7 5 2 1 ±2 pp 2,005 online 6
November 27, 2021 Amita Kuttner is named interim leader of the Green Party
EKOS November 21, 2021 [27] 26.6 30.4 19.1 5.9 11.4 5.2 1 ±3.1 pp 1,006 IVR 3.8
Leger November 7, 2021 [28] 26 35 22 8 5 3 2 ±2.48 pp 1,565 online 9
Nanos Research October 29, 2021 [29] 30.1 30.8 21.6 7.4 5.8 3.1 N/A ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0.7
Mainstreet Research October 24, 2021 [30] 33.3 33.8 15.4 5.5 N/A 3.0 8.9 ±2.4 pp 1,711 IVR 0.5
Nanos Research October 22, 2021 [31] 30.8 29.9 23.1 7.3 5.3 2.7 N/A ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 0.9
Abacus Data October 20, 2021 [32] 30 33 19 7 6 3 1 ±1.9 pp 2,220 online 3
September 27, 2021 Annamie Paul announces her intention to resign as the leader of the Green Party
2021 election September 20, 2021 HTML 33.7 32.6 17.8 7.6 4.9 2.3 1.1 N/A 17,042,591 N/A 1.1
Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Others Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
CPC LPC NDP BQ PPC GPC

Regional polls[]

A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level:

Alberta[]

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
Yorkville Strategies March 9, 2022 [33] 18 48 20 4 7 3 ±4 pp 600 Phone 28

Leadership polls[]

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best Prime Minister:

February 2022 – present[]

Polling firm Last date

of polling

Link Justin Trudeau Candice Bergen Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Amita Kuttner Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[c] 		Lead
Nanos Research March 18, 2022 [34] 30.0 18.5 19.3 3.1 1.2 4.7 23.2 ±3.1 pp 10.7
Nanos Research March 11, 2022 [35] 31.0 17.2 19.1 3.5 1.1 5.6 22.4 ±3.1 pp 11.9
Nanos Research March 4, 2022 [36] 30.6 18.0 17.5 3.2 1.1 6.1 23.4 ±3.1 pp 12.6
Nanos Research February 25, 2022 [37] 29.9 19.2 17.1 3.3 1.2 7.3 22.0 ±3.1 pp 10.7
Nanos Research February 18, 2022 [38] 28.6 19.2 16.7 3.4 1.5 8.0 22.5 ±3.1 pp 9.4

Government approval polls[]

Polling firm Last date of polling[a] Link Approve Disapprove Unsure/
Neither 		Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Net
approval
Abacus Data February 22, 2022 [5] 39% 46% 15% ±1.4 pp 5,200 Online –7%
Abacus Data February 8, 2022 [9] 38% 45% 16% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –7%
Ipsos January 17, 2022 [39] 49% 51% N/A ±3.5 pp 1,001 Online –2%
Abacus Data January 12, 2022 [18] 44% 40% 16% ±2.1 pp 2,200 Online +4%
Abacus Data November 30, 2021 [25] 41% 44% 15% ±2.2 pp 2,025 Online –3%
Ipsos November 15, 2021 [40] 48% 52% N/A ±3.5 pp 1,001 Online –4%
Abacus Data October 20, 2021 [32] 42% 43% 16% ±1.9 pp 2,200 Online –1%

Notes[]

  1. ^ a b c Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
  2. ^ Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
  3. ^ a b c d e In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ^ a b c d Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. ^ a b c d "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References[]

  1. ^ "Abacus Data | Liberal-NDP deal: By 2 to 1 margin, public thinks it will be good rather than bad for Canada". abacusdata.ca. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  2. ^ "Polling shows Russia-Ukraine war a 'reset' for Liberals: Nanos". CTV News. March 17, 2022. Retrieved March 17, 2022.
  3. ^ "POLITICS IN CANADA" (PDF). Leger. March 10, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 11, 2022. Retrieved March 11, 2022.
  4. ^ Rana, Abbas (March 7, 2022). "Russia-Ukraine conflict changing the channel for Trudeau but PM's brand damaged by trucker protest, say pollsters" (PDF). The Hill Times. Retrieved March 7, 2022.
  5. ^ a b "Abacus Data | Emergency measures: Government approval holds as Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked". abacusdata.ca. Archived from the original on February 24, 2022. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
  6. ^ "Ipsos | Liberals and Conservatives Remain Deadlocked in National Vote Intentions in Aftermath of Trucker Protests". ipsos.com. Archived from the original on February 28, 2022. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
  7. ^ "Conservatives up 10 points under Bergen: Mainstreet poll" (PDF). ipolitcs.ca. February 18, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 18, 2022. Retrieved February 18, 2022.
  8. ^ "Trend shows 'material increase' in PPC support: Nanos". CTVNews. February 16, 2022. Archived from the original on February 16, 2022. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Abacus Data | Voting intentions favour Liberals, but frustration is mounting across the country". abacusdata.ca. Archived from the original on February 12, 2022. Retrieved February 12, 2022.
  10. ^ "North American Tracker" (PDF). Leger. February 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 8, 2022. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
  11. ^ Rana, Abbas (February 7, 2022). "Truckers' protest reflects rise in 'disruption politics,' increasing polarization, say political insiders". The Hill Times. Archived from the original on February 7, 2022. Retrieved February 7, 2022.
  12. ^ "Mainstreet Research - Survey of Canada" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. January 25, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 25, 2022. Retrieved January 25, 2022.
  13. ^ "North American Tracker" (PDF). Leger. January 24, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 26, 2022. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  14. ^ Rana, Abbas (January 31, 2022). "Winter House sitting will be like 'political hunger games' between O'Toole and Trudeau, say pollsters". The Hill Times. Archived from the original on February 1, 2022. Retrieved January 31, 2022.
  15. ^ "Federal Landscape Frozen". EKOS Politics. January 19, 2022. Archived from the original on January 21, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  16. ^ "'More of the same' messaging from Liberals affecting ballot support: Nanos". CTVNews. January 20, 2022. Archived from the original on January 21, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  17. ^ "Minority Management: Half of Canadians expect another federal election within two years". Angus Reid Institute. January 27, 2022. Archived from the original on January 28, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  18. ^ a b "Abacus Data | Public mood sours and federal government approval steady as Omicron cases rise". abacusdata.ca. Archived from the original on January 15, 2022. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  19. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on January 14, 2022. Retrieved January 18, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  20. ^ Turcotte, André (January 28, 2022). "No buyer's remorse after federal election". The Hill Times(subscription required). Archived from the original on February 7, 2022. Retrieved February 7, 2022.
  21. ^ Graves, Frank (January 8, 2022). "Vote intention by region". Twitter. Archived from the original on January 9, 2022. Retrieved January 9, 2022.
  22. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on January 14, 2022. Retrieved January 18, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  23. ^ "North American Tracker" (PDF). Leger. December 6, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 8, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  24. ^ "Mainstreet Research - Survey of Canada" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. December 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 4, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  25. ^ a b Anderson, Bruce; Coletto, David (December 1, 2021). "A Throne Speech Meets a Distracted Public. Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck". Abacus Data. Archived from the original on December 2, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  26. ^ "O'Toole's Blue Christmas: CPC leader's popularity plummets post-election as party's fortunes run flat". Angus Reid. December 10, 2021. Archived from the original on December 11, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  27. ^ "Three-Way Federal Horserace Frozen". Ekos Politics. November 27, 2021. Archived from the original on December 2, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  28. ^ "North American Tracker" (PDF). Leger. November 8, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 10, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  29. ^ No 'honeymoon' for Trudeau: Nanos explains why the PM's popularity is down. CTV News. Nanos Research. November 3, 2021.
  30. ^ "Mainstreet Research - Survey of Canada" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. October 26, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 28, 2021. Retrieved October 28, 2021.
  31. ^ "Nanos Ballot: Conservatives 30.8, Liberals 29.9, NDP 23.1 > No post-election honeymoon for Trudeau Liberals" (PDF). Nanos. October 26, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  32. ^ a b Anderson, Bruce; Coletto, David (October 26, 2021). "What are Canadians thinking before the new federal government is sworn in?". Abacus Data. Archived from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  33. ^ "Alberta Ballot Support". Yorkville Strategies.
  34. ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 22, 2022.
  35. ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 15, 2022.
  36. ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 8, 2022.
  37. ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 1, 2022.
  38. ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 22, 2022.
  39. ^ Bricker, Darell (January 19, 2022). "Canadians Give Middling Approval Ratings to First Ministers in Response to Omicron". Ipsos. Retrieved March 3, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  40. ^ "Approval of Trudeau Government Hangs in Balance for Next Session of Parliament (48% Approve vs. 52% Disapprove) as Affordability Named Top Priority by Canadians". Ipsos. November 21, 2021. Archived from the original on December 21, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
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