2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout	64.85%[1]
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200 Percentage 50.0% 47.6%
County results Sinema:      50–60%      60–70% McSally:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election Jeff Flake Republican Elected U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema Democratic

Elections in Arizona
show Federal government Presidential elections 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Presidential primaries Democratic 2004 2008 2016 2020 Republican 2008 2012 2016 U.S. Senate elections 1912 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2020 sp 2022 2024 U.S. House elections 1911 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1933 at-large sp 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1961 2nd sp 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1991 2nd sp 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 8th 2008 2010 2012 8th sp 2014 2016 2018 8th sp 2020 2022
show State government State elections 2006 2010 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Gubernatorial elections 1911 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Secretary of State 2014 2018 2022 Attorney General 2018 2022 Superintendent of Public Instruction 2018 2022 Legislature elections 2006 2018 Senate 2020 House 2020
show Ballot measures List of Arizona ballot propositions 2000 203 2004 200 2006 107 204 207 2008 102 2010 100 203 2020 207
show Chandler Mayoral elections 2006
show Gilbert Mayoral elections 2012
show Glendale Mayoral elections 2012 2016
show Mesa Mayoral elections 2008 2020
show Phoenix Mayoral elections 2011 2015 2018–19 (special) 2020
show Scottsdale Mayoral elections 2008 2012
show Tucson Mayoral elections 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
v t

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona and replace incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who did not run for reelection to a second term. It was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various other state and local elections.

The candidate filing deadline was May 30, 2018; primaries were held on August 28, 2018, three days after the death of Senator John McCain. Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot but had withdrawn and endorsed Sinema.^[2] The election thus featured an all-female ballot. Write-in candidates included Democrat Sheila Bilyeu, Libertarian Party candidate Barry Hess, Republican Robert Kay, Jonathan Ringham of The Old Republic, as well as others.^[3] On the night of the election, McSally held a narrow lead of about one percent. Approximately a million mail-in and early ballots however remained to be counted; Sinema took the lead the next day, in a blue shift. The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018^[4] and McSally conceded that day.^[5] With a margin of 2.34%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2018 U.S. Senate election cycle, behind only the Senate election in Florida.

Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988 when former Democratic Senator Dennis DeConcini last ran for and won reelection to his third and final term in this seat. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl. Two years later, McSally attempted to defend her seat in the 2020 special election and serve the remainder of the term, but lost to Democrat Mark Kelly.

Background[]

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.^[6] The last Democrat to win a Senate election in Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.^[7] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former State Senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.^[8][9][10]

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

On the ballot[]

• Joe Arpaio, former Maricopa County Sheriff^{[11][12][13][14]}
• Martha McSally, U.S. Representative^[15][16][14]
• Kelli Ward, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^{[17][18][19][14]}
• Nicholas N. Glenn (write-in candidate)^[20]
• William Gonzales (write-in candidate)^[20]

Failed to file[]

• Craig Brittain, owner and co-founder of the revenge porn website IsAnybodyDown?^[21]
• Christian "C.J." Diegel, financial advisor^[22]
• Michelle Griffin^[23]
• Shawn Redd^[24]
• Nicholas Tutora, pharmacist^[25]

Withdrew[]

• Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. Senator^[26][27]

Declined[]

• Jan Brewer, former Governor^[28][29]
• Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative^{[30][31][32][33]}
• Jeff DeWit, Treasurer of Arizona (nominated as NASA chief financial officer)^[34]
• Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative^[12]
• Mark Brnovich, Attorney General of Arizona^[12]
• Trent Franks, former U.S. Representative^[35][36]
• Robert Graham, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party^[37][28][12]
• Christine Jones, former GoDaddy executive, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for AZ-05 in 2016^[32]
• Bill Montgomery, Maricopa County Attorney^[38]
• Ben Quayle, former U.S. Representative^[39]
• Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2002^[40][41][12]
• David Schweikert, U.S. Representative^[19][12][36]
• John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative^[38][14]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Arpaio	Martha McSally	Kelli Ward	Other	Undecided
Data Orbital	August 21–22, 2018	600	± 4.0%	18%	48%	22%	1%	8%
OH Predictive Insights	August 14–15, 2018	578	± 4.1%	13%	47%	27%	–	12%
OH Predictive Insights	July 23–25, 2018	576	± 4.1%	15%	35%	27%	–	23%
Gravis Marketing	June 27 – July 2, 2018	501	± 4.4%	24%	36%	27%	–	14%
Emerson College	June 21–22, 2018	305	± 5.9%	18%	32%	19%	7%[73]	23%
Data Orbital	June 19–21, 2018	550	± 4.2%	17%	38%	23%	2%	21%
Marist College	June 17–21, 2018	371	± 6.7%	21%	30%	28%	<1%	21%
OH Predictive Insights	June 11–12, 2018	600	± 4.0%	14%	39%	25%	–	22%
Remington (R-McSally)	May 23–24, 2018	2,011	± 2.3%	25%	42%	23%	–	10%
Magellan Strategies (R)	April 11–12 and 15, 2018	755	± 3.6%	26%	36%	25%	6%	7%
OH Predictive Insights	April 10–11, 2018	302	± 5.6%	22%	27%	36%	–	15%
Data Orbital	January 11–15, 2018	500	± 4.4%	22%	31%	19%	–	27%
OH Predictive Insights	January 9, 2018	504	± 4.4%	29%	31%	25%	–	15%
WPA Intelligence (R-McSally)	November 15–16, 2017	500	± 4.4%	–	38%	36%	–	26%
OH Predictive Insights	November 9, 2017	323	± 5.5%	–	34%	42%	–	24%
Revily (R-Ward)	October 28–31, 2017	380	± 3.0%	–	21%	32%	15%[74]	34%

showHypothetical polling

with Jay Heiler Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Jay Heiler Martha McSally Matt Salmon David Schweikert John Shadegg Kelli Ward Undecided Data Orbital October 26–28, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 1% 19% 10% 5% 4% 26% 28% with Jeff Flake Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Jeff Flake Jeff DeWit Nicholas Tutora Kelli Ward Other Undecided GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 31% – – 58% – 11% JMC Analytics (R) August 26–27, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 21% – 3% 47% – 29% HighGround Public Affairs August 18–19, 2017 273 ± 5.9% 28% – – 43% 5% 24% Political Marketing International (R-Ward) February 7, 2017 921 ± 5.0% 23% – – 30% – 47% Remington Research Group November 15–16, 2016 1,122 ± 2.9% 30% 38% – 15% – 17% 33% 42% – – – 25% 35% 35% – – – 30%

Results[]

Republican primary results^[75]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Martha McSally	357,626	54.57%
	Republican	Kelli Ward	180,926	27.61%
	Republican	Joe Arpaio	116,555	17.79%
	Write-in		191	0.03%
Total votes			655,298	100.00%

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

On the ballot[]

• Deedra Abboud, attorney^[76][14]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative^[77][14]

Failed to file[]

• Bob Bishop, pilot^[78]
• Matt Jette^[79]
• David Ruben, physician^[80]
• Chris Russell, attorney^[81]
• Richard Sherzan, retired administrative law judge, former Iowa State Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[82][14]

Withdrew[]

• Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher^[83][84]

Declined[]

• Mark Kelly, astronaut, scientist, U.S. Navy Captain and husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords^[85]
• Randall Friese, State Representative^[86][87][88]
• Ann Kirkpatrick, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for AZ-2)^[8][89]
• Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-9)^[90][87][91]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Deedra Abboud	Kyrsten Sinema	Other	Undecided
Data Orbital	June 25–27, 2018	550	± 4.2%	7%	63%	2%	29%
Emerson College	June 21–22, 2018	260	± 6.2%	8%	51%	12%[145]	30%

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[75]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kyrsten Sinema	404,170	79.25%
	Democratic	Deedra Abboud	105,800	20.75%
Total votes			509,970	100.00%

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Adam Kokesh (write-in candidate), anti-war activist and U.S. presidential candidate in 2020^[20]

Removed[]

• Doug Marks, veteran and write-in candidate for IL-14 in 2010^{[146][14][147]}

Green primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Angela Green (write-in candidate)^[20]

Removed[]

• Eve Reyes-Aguirre, activist^{[148][14][147]}

Results[]

Green primary results^[75]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Angela Green (write-in)	389	100.00%
Total votes			389	100.00%

General election[]

Debates[]

• Complete video of debate, October 15, 2018

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[149]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[150]	Tilt D (flip)	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[151]	Lean D (flip)	November 5, 2018
CNN[152]	Tossup	October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[153]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[154]	Lean D (flip)	November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[155]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
Fox News[156]	Tossup	October 30, 2018

Endorsements[]

Fundraising[]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D)	$19,287,249	$20,249,341	$1,301,542
Martha McSally (R)	$16,211,836	$13,688,178	$2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[200]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martha McSally (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (D)	Angela Green (G)	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	November 4–5, 2018	1,217	± 2.8%	47%	45%	–	2%	6%
HarrisX	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	44%	49%	–	–	–
HarrisX	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	46%	47%	–	–	–
OH Predictive Insights	November 2–3, 2018	631	± 3.9%	49%	48%	0%	–	1%
Emerson College	November 1–3, 2018	758	± 3.7%	48%	49%	2%	–	2%
HarrisX	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	48%	46%	–	–	–
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	44%	45%	–	1%	10%
HarrisX	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	49%	44%	–	–	–
Gravis Marketing	October 24 – November 2, 2018	1,165	± 2.9%	47%	46%	–	–	7%
HarrisX	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	48%	42%	–	–	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	October 30 – November 1, 2018	2,166	± 2.1%	47%	50%	–	2%	1%
HarrisX	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	49%	42%	–	–	–
Vox Populi Polling	October 27–30, 2018	677	± 3.7%	48%	52%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	48%	43%	–	–	–
FOX News	October 27–29, 2018	643 LV	± 3.5%	46%	46%	–	3%	5%
		710 RV	± 3.5%	44%	45%	–	4%	6%
CNN/SSRS	October 24–29, 2018	702 LV	± 4.4%	47%	51%	–	0%	1%
		867 RV	± 4.0%	45%	48%	–	0%	3%
HighGround Public Affairs	October 26–28, 2018	400	± 4.9%	47%	45%	4%	–	5%
NBC News/Marist College	October 23–27, 2018	506 LV	± 5.4%	44%	47%	6%	<1%	3%
				44%	50%	–	2%	4%
		793 RV	± 4.4%	43%	45%	7%	<1%	5%
				43%	49%	–	2%	6%
CBS News/YouGov	October 23–26, 2018	972	± 4.1%	44%	47%	–	3%	5%
Ipsos	October 17–26, 2018	799	± 4.0%	48%	46%	–	3%	3%
OH Predictive Insights	October 22–23, 2018	600	± 4.0%	52%	45%	1%	–	2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	October 15–19, 2018	606	± 4.2%	48%	46%	1%	–	6%
Data Orbital	October 16–17, 2018	600	± 4.0%	41%	47%	3%	1%	8%
Change Research (D)	October 9–10, 2018	783	–	44%	44%	–	–	11%
CBS News/YouGov	October 2–5, 2018	898	–	44%	47%	–	3%	6%
OH Predictive Insights	October 1–2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	47%	41%	4%	–	8%
FOX News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	716 LV	± 3.5%	45%	47%	–	2%	6%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	44%	45%	–	2%	8%
Vox Populi Polling	September 29 – October 1, 2018	702	± 3.5%	52%	49%	–	–	–
Suffolk University	September 27–30, 2018	500	± 4.4%	42%	45%	2%	0%	11%
Latino Decisions	September 10–25, 2018	463 LV	–	41%	47%	–	–	11%
		610 RV	–	37%	43%	–	–	17%
Emerson College	September 19–21, 2018	650	± 4.4%	39%	45%	–	4%	13%
NBC News/Marist College	September 16–20, 2018	564 LV	± 4.7%	43%	45%	6%	<1%	6%
				45%	48%	–	<1%	7%
		763 RV	± 4.2%	41%	44%	6%	<1%	8%
				44%	47%	–	<1%	9%
CNN/SSRS	September 11–15, 2018	761 LV	± 4.3%	43%	50%	–	0%	3%
		854 RV	± 4.1%	41%	48%	–	1%	6%
Ipsos	September 5–14, 2018	1,016	± 4.0%	44%	47%	–	4%	5%
TargetSmart (D)	September 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.0%	46%	51%	–	1%	3%
FOX News	September 8–11, 2018	710 LV	± 3.5%	44%	47%	–	2%	5%
		801 RV	± 3.5%	42%	46%	–	3%	7%
Gravis Marketing	September 5–7, 2018	882	± 3.3%	49%	48%	–	–	3%
OH Predictive Insights	September 5–6, 2018	597	± 4.0%	49%	46%	–	–	6%
Data Orbital	September 4–6, 2018	550	± 4.2%	42%	46%	–	2%[201]	9%
OH Predictive Insights	July 23–24, 2018	600	± 4.0%	44%	48%	–	–	8%
Gravis Marketing	June 27 – July 2, 2018	925	± 3.2%	39%	43%	–	–	19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	1,290	± 4.5%	44%	48%	–	–	7%
Emerson College	June 21–22, 2018	650	± 4.0%	32%	40%	–	9%	20%
CBS News/YouGov	June 19–22, 2018	869 LV	–	37%	45%	–	7%	10%
		998 RV	± 3.7%	34%	41%	–	8%	14%
NBC News/Marist College	June 17–21, 2018	839	± 4.5%	38%	49%	–	2%	11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	April 2–23, 2018	1,667	± 4.0%	42%	51%	–	–	7%
OH Predictive Insights	April 10–11, 2018	600	± 4.0%	42%	48%	–	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	March 15–16, 2018	547	± 4.2%	41%	46%	–	–	13%
OH Predictive Insights	November 9, 2017	600	± 4.0%	45%	46%	–	–	9%
Revily (R-Ward)	October 28–31, 2017	850	± 3.4%	29%	33%	–	–	37%

showHypothetical polling

with Kelli Ward Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Kelli Ward (R) Kyrsten Sinema (D) Other Undecided OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8% Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 37% 46% – 17% SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 41% 52% – 7% Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 26% 43% 8% 23% YouGov June 19–22, 2018 867 LV ± 3.7% 38% 46% 6% 9% 996 RV 35% 43% 7% 14% Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 2% 12% SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 43% 51% – 6% OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 50% – 10% OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11% Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 34% 33% – 33% HighGround Public Affairs October 23–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% 34% – 39% HighGround Public Affairs August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 31% 32% – 38% with Joe Arpaio Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Joe Arpaio (R) Kyrsten Sinema (D) Other Undecided OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 54% – 10% Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 33% 52% – 14% SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 34% 57% – 9% Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 30% 54% 8% 9% YouGov June 19–22, 2018 868 LV ± 3.7% 29% 49% 13% 8% 996 RV 28% 45% 13% 11% Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 32% 57% 2% 9% SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 32% 61% – 7% OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 59% – 8% with generic Republican and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Generic Republican Generic Democrat Undecided Morning Consult June 29 – July 9, 2018 1,641 ± 2.0% 35% 42% 23% Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 47% 45% 8% with Jeff Flake Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Jeff Flake (R) Kyrsten Sinema (D) Undecided GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13% HighGround Public Affairs August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 33% 41% 27% Public Policy Polling May 13–15, 2016 896 ± 3.3% 38% 36% 27% Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Jeff Flake (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) July 31 – August 1, 2017 704 ± 2.0% 31% 47% 22% with Matt Salmon Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Matt Salmon (R) Kyrsten Sinema (D) Undecided Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 30% 32% 38%

Results[]

Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.^[202]

Sinema defeated McSally largely by winning in heavily populated Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, which used to be a Republican stronghold but has since trended more Democratic in recent years. Sinema also won in heavily populated Pima County, home to Tucson, where she beat McSally with over 56% of the vote. Sinema also performed well in Coconino County, home of Flagstaff. McSally did well in many rural areas of the state. This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kyrsten Sinema	1,191,100	49.96%	+3.76%
	Republican	Martha McSally	1,135,200	47.61%	-1.62%
	Green	Angela Green	57,442	2.41%	N/A
	Write-in		566	0.02%	N/A
Total votes			2,384,308	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic gain from Republican

By county[]

County	Sinema%	Sinema Votes	McSally%	McSally Votes	Other%	Other Votes	Total Votes
Apache	64.97%	16,298	31.13%	7,810	3.90%	979	25,087
Cochise	38.16%	17,383	59.12%	26,929	2.72%	1,237	45,549
Coconino	61.94%	34,240	34.82%	19,249	3.24%	1,791	55,280
Gila	37.28%	7,643	59.42%	12,180	3.30%	676	20,499
Graham	31.76%	3,368	64.77%	6,870	3.47%	368	10,606
Greenlee	40.59%	1,042	55.16%	1,416	4.25%	109	2,567
La Paz	31.72%	1,609	64.36%	3,265	3.92%	199	5,073
Maricopa	50.96%	732,761	46.77%	672,505	2.27%	32,686	1,437,952
Mohave	26.88%	19,214	70.25%	50,209	2.86%	2,046	71,469
Navajo	45.37%	16,624	51.22%	18,767	3.41%	1,249	36,640
Pima	56.65%	221,242	41.11%	160,550	2.25%	8,776	390,568
Pinal	42.93%	50,395	54.33%	63,782	2.74%	3,218	117,395
Santa Cruz	68.51%	9,241	28.38%	3,828	3.11%	419	13,488
Yavapai	37.10%	40,160	60.27%	65,308	2.68%	2,900	108,368
Yuma	45.42%	19,880	51.48%	22,532	3.10%	1,355	43,767

^[203]

Voter Demographics[]

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroup	Sinema	McSally	No Answer	% of Voters
Gender
Men	49	49	2	47
Women	51	47	2	53
Age
18–24 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
25–29 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
30–39 years old	57	39	4	17
40–49 years old	50	48	2	17
50–64 years old	44	55	1	29
65 and older	51	48	1	29
Race
White	45	53	2	75
Black	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino	68	30	2	18
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Race and Gender
White men	42	55	3	34
White women	47	52	1	41
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino men	66	32	2	9
Latina women	70	28	2	9
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	50	46	4	25
Some college education	45	54	1	28
Associate Degree	43	53	4	10
Bachelor's Degree	52	47	3	23
Advanced degree	62	37	1	14
Education and race
White college graduates	55	45	N/A	27
White no college degree	39	58	3	48
Non-white college graduates	72	27	1	9
Non-white no college degree	65	33	2	16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	56	44	N/A	15
White women without college degrees	42	56	2	26
White men with college degrees	53	47	N/A	12
White men without college degrees	35	61	4	22
Non-whites	68	31	1	25
Military service
Veteran	38	59	3	14
Non-veteran	54	45	1	86
Income
Under $30,000	62	34	4	15
$30,000-$49,999	63	36	1	18
$50,000-$99,999	48	49	3	33
$100,000-$199,999	41	58	1	24
Over $200,000	44	56	N/A	9
Party ID
Democrats	97	3	N/A	32
Republicans	12	86	2	38
Independents	50	47	3	31
Party by gender
Democratic men	94	6	N/A	14
Democratic women	99	1	N/A	17
Republican men	6	91	3	15
Republican women	16	83	1	23
Independent men	50	47	3	18
Independent women	50	47	3	13
Ideology
Liberals	94	6	N/A	22
Moderates	63	35	2	38
Conservatives	14	84	2	40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	53	44	3	15
No	48	50	2	85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	77	20	3	42
Immigration	16	83	1	31
Economy	39	60	1	18
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Area type
Urban	60	39	1	43
Suburban	44	54	2	51
Rural	N/A	N/A	N/A	6
Source: CNN[204]

Aftermath[]

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat, left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself was appointed after the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain. Initially, Kyl said that he would serve only until the new Congress was sworn in January 2019.^[205] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019, marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making it the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of Senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the prior year; a first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997.^[206] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected. Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish what remains of McCain's term (which expires in 2023), in which McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly.^[207] McSally left office on December 2, 2020.

References[]

External links[]

• "Arizona Senate Election Results: Martha McSally vs. Kyrsten Sinema". The New York Times. (constantly updated)
• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics

Official campaign websites

• Kyrsten Sinema (D) for Senate
• Martha McSally (R) for Senate Archived August 26, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
• Adam Kokesh (L) for Senate
• Angela Green (G) for Senate