2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

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Turnout	52%[1]
Nominee Josh Hawley Claire McCaskill Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,254,927 1,112,935 Percentage 51.4% 45.6%
County results Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% McCaskill:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election Claire McCaskill Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Josh Hawley Republican

Elections in Missouri
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

Incumbent senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election in a primary field of eight Democrats. Eleven Republicans vied for their party's nomination which went to State Attorney General Josh Hawley, who filed notification in August 2017 that he had formed an exploratory campaign committee for the seat.^[2][3]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.^[4] Pollsters predicted a tight race. On November 6, 2018, Hawley was elected with 51.5% of the vote, to McCaskill's 45.4%, resulting in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007. Hawley was also the youngest incumbent senator at that time and was until the election of Jon Ossoff in 2021.^[5]

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Claire McCaskill, incumbent U.S. Senator^[6][7]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist^[8]
• David Faust^[9]
• Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate^[9]
• John Hogan, perennial candidate^[9]
• Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate^[9]
• Carla (Coffee) Wright

Endorsements[]

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Claire McCaskill (incumbent)	501,872	82.60%
	Democratic	Carla Wright	41,126	6.77%
	Democratic	John Hogan	15,984	2.63%
	Democratic	David Faust	15,958	2.63%
	Democratic	Angelica Earl	15,500	2.55%
	Democratic	Travis Gonzalez	9,480	1.56%
	Democratic	Leonard Steinman	7,657	1.26%
Total votes			607,577	100.00%

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Josh Hawley, Missouri Attorney General^[33]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Austin Petersen, businessman and Libertarian candidate for presidential nomination in 2016^[34][35]
• Brian Hagg^[9]
• Bradley Krembs^[9]
• Tony Monetti, retired bomber pilot and assistant dean of aviation at University of Central Missouri^[36]
• Kristi Nichols, activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2016^[9]
• Ken Patterson, candidate for St. Louis County Executive in 2010^[9]
• Peter Pfeifer^[9]
• Fred Ryman, Constitution nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[9]
• Christina Smith^[9]
• Courtland Sykes, veteran and former congressional aide^[37]

Withdrew[]

• Camille Lombardi-Olive, Democratic candidate for MO-07 in 2016^[38][9]

Declined[]

• Ann Wagner, U.S. Representative and former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg^[39]
• Aaron Hedlund, economics professor^[40]
• Paul Curtman, state representative^[41][42]
• Eric Greitens, former Governor of Missouri^[43][44][45]
• Vicky Hartzler, U.S. Representative^[46]
• Todd Richardson, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives^[47]
• Eric Schmitt, state treasurer^[48]
• David Wasinger, attorney^[49][50]
• Marsha Haefner, state representative^[51]
• Ed Martin, former chairman of the Missouri Republican Party, nominee for MO-03 in 2010 and nominee for attorney general in 2012^[45]

Endorsements[]

Debates[]

Host network	Date	Link(s)	Participants
			Josh Hawley	Austin Petersen	Courtland Sykes	Tony Monetti	Peter Pfeifer	Kirsti Nichols
America First Missouri	May 11, 2018	[143]	Absent	Present	Present	Present	Present	Present

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Josh Hawley	Austin Petersen	Courtland Sykes	Other	Undecided
Emerson College[permanent dead link]	April 26–29, 2018	283	± 6.0%	37%	8%	6%	5%	45%

show Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Josh Hawley David Steelman Ann Wagner David Wasinger Undecided Remington Research Group April 28–29, 2017 915 ± 3.1% 30% 7% 14% 2% 47% 37% – 16% – 47%

Results[]

Republican primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Josh Hawley	389,878	58.64%
	Republican	Tony Monetti	64,834	9.75%
	Republican	Austin Petersen	54,916	8.26%
	Republican	Kristi Nichols	49,640	7.47%
	Republican	Christina Smith	35,024	5.27%
	Republican	Ken Patterson	19,579	2.95%
	Republican	Peter Pfeifer	16,594	2.50%
	Republican	Courtland Sykes	13,870	2.09%
	Republican	Fred Ryman	8,781	1.32%
	Republican	Brian Hagg	6,871	1.03%
	Republican	Bradley Krembs	4,902	0.74%
Total votes			664,889	100.00%

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur^[144]

Withdrew[]

• Don Donald^[145]
• Dennis Lagares^[145]

Declined[]

• Alicia Dearn, attorney and candidate for Vice President of the United States in 2016^[146]
• Austin Petersen, Libertarian candidate for President of the United States in 2016 (running as a Republican)^[147]

Results[]

Libertarian primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Japheth Campbell	5,380	100.00%
Total votes			5,380	100.00%

Green primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Jo Crain

Eliminated in primary[]

• Jerome Bauer

Results[]

Green primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Jo Crain	906	57.67%
	Green	Jerome Bauer	665	42.33%
Total votes			1,571	100.00%

Independents[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Craig O'Dear, attorney^[148]

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[149]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[150]	Tilt R (flip)	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[151]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2018
CNN[152]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[153]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[154]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Fox News[155]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[156]	Tossup	November 5, 2018

Debates[]

• Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018

Fundraising[]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Claire McCaskill (D)	$35,361,401	$33,594,412	$1,789,381
Josh Hawley (R)	$10,221,143	$7,376,209	$2,844,933
Source: Federal Election Commission[157]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Claire McCaskill (D)	Josh Hawley (R)	Japheth Campbell (L)	Craig O'Dear (I)	Jo Crain (G)	Other	Undecided
HarrisX	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	45%	46%	–	–	–	–	–
HarrisX	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	44%	47%	–	–	–	–	–
Trafalgar Group (R)	October 29 – November 4, 2018	1,791	± 2.3%	44%	48%	–	–	–	4%	3%
Emerson College	November 1–3, 2018	732	± 3.8%	46%	49%	–	–	–	3%	3%
HarrisX	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	46%	46%	–	–	–	–	–
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	November 1–2, 2018	1,424	± 2.6%	47%	47%	1%	1%	1%	–	3%
HarrisX	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	45%	46%	–	–	–	–	–
NBC News/Marist	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600 LV	± 5.2%	47%	44%	3%	–	2%	<1%	4%
				50%	47%	–	–	–	<1%	3%
		920 RV	± 4.1%	46%	43%	3%	–	2%	1%	6%
				50%	46%	–	–	–	1%	4%
HarrisX	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	46%	43%	–	–	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	45%	43%	–	–	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	46%	44%	–	–	–	–	–
FOX News	October 27–30, 2018	741 LV	± 3.5%	43%	43%	0%	3%	1%	0%	9%
				45%	45%	–	–	–	2%	8%
		851 RV	± 3.0%	41%	42%	1%	3%	2%	1%	10%
				43%	44%	–	–	–	3%	9%
Cygnal (R)	October 26–27, 2018	501	± 4.4%	46%	49%	–	–	–	1%	3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	October 24–25, 2018	1,376	± 2.6%	45%	49%	1%	1%	1%	–	3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	October 17–18, 2018	1,215	± 2.7%	46%	47%	2%	1%	1%	–	2%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley)	October 16–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	42%	49%	–	–	–	4%	5%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United)	October 11–13, 2018	600	± 4.0%	47%	50%	–	–	–	0%	3%
Ipsos	September 27 – October 7, 2018	1,111	± 3.0%	44%	45%	1%	2%	0%	2%	6%
1st Tuesday Campaigns[permanent dead link]	October 5–6, 2018	1,052	± 3.0%	42%	44%	1%	1%	1%	–	11%
FOX News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	683 LV	± 3.5%	43%	43%	2%	4%	1%	1%	6%
				46%	46%	–	–	–	3%	5%
		805 RV	± 3.5%	41%	41%	2%	4%	2%	1%	9%
				44%	44%	–	–	–	3%	8%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action)	September 29 – October 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	44%	52%	–	–	–	–	–
Vox Populi Polling	September 29 – October 1, 2018	869	± 3.3%	49%	51%	–	–	–	–	–
CNN/SSRS	September 25–29, 2018	756 LV	± 4.3%	47%	44%	3%	–	1%	0%	4%
		906 RV	± 3.9%	43%	42%	4%	–	2%	0%	6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	September 26–27, 2018	1,555	± 2.5%	46%	48%	–	–	–	–	6%
YouGov	September 10–14, 2018	917	–	45%	45%	–	–	–	4%	6%
Trafalgar Group (R)	September 11–13, 2018	1,724	± 2.4%	44%	47%	–	–	–	–	8%
FOX News	September 8–11, 2018	675 LV	± 3.5%	44%	41%	1%	3%	1%	1%	8%
				45%	45%	–	–	–	3%	7%
		808 RV	± 3.5%	41%	39%	1%	4%	1%	1%	11%
				42%	43%	–	–	–	3%	10%
NBC News/Marist	August 25–28, 2018	568 LV	± 4.8%	44%	40%	5%	–	3%	<1%	8%
				47%	47%	–	–	–	1%	5%
		774 RV	± 4.2%	43%	39%	6%	–	3%	<1%	8%
				46%	47%	–	–	–	1%	5%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth)	August 12–14, 2018	501	± 4.4%	41%	48%	–	–	–	3%	8%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	August 8–9, 2018	1,785	± 2.3%	47%	47%	–	–	–	–	6%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth)	July 10–12, 2018	602	± 4.0%	42%	43%	–	–	–	4%	11%
The Missouri Times/Remington (R)	July 7–8, 2018	1,034	± 3.2%	46%	48%	–	–	–	–	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	1,038	± 5.0%	49%	47%	–	–	–	–	4%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action)	June 2018	–	–	46%	42%	–	–	–	–	–
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)	June 11–13, 2018	804	± 3.5%	47%	41%	–	–	–	–	–
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen)	May 16, 2018	822	± 3.4%	43%	50%	–	–	–	–	7%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D)	May 9–10, 2018	898	± 3.3%	48%	44%	–	–	–	–	8%
Emerson College[permanent dead link]	April 26–29, 2018	600	± 4.2%	45%	45%	–	–	–	–	11%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D)	April 19–20, 2018	1,542	± 2.5%	48%	44%	–	–	–	–	8%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley)	April 16–18, 2018	600	± 4.0%	46%	47%	–	–	–	–	7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)	April 9–12, 2018	–	–	46%	44%	–	–	–	–	–
Mason-Dixon	April 4–6, 2018	625	± 4.0%	45%	44%	–	–	–	–	11%
Gravis Marketing	March 5–7, 2018	931	± 3.2%	42%	40%	–	–	–	–	18%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	February 12 – March 5, 2018	1,938	± 3.6%	44%	52%	–	–	–	–	4%
Public Policy Polling (D-TMI)	January 8–9, 2018	965	± 3.2%	45%	44%	–	–	–	–	11%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	January 3–4, 2018	1,122	± 2.9%	45%	49%	–	–	–	–	6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	October 11–12, 2017	965	± 3.1%	45%	48%	–	–	–	–	7%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	August 16–18, 2017	922	± 3.0%	45%	50%	–	–	–	–	5%
Fabrizio Lee (R)	July 10–11, 2017	500	± 4.4%	42%	46%	–	–	–	–	12%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)	July 7–8, 2017	928	± 3.2%	44%	50%	–	–	–	–	6%

show Hypothetical polling

with Austin Petersen Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Austin Petersen (R) Undecided Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 40% 56% 4% with generic Republican Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Generic Republican Undecided Fabrizio Lee (R) July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 54% 8% with Vicky Hartzler Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Vicky Hartzler (R) Undecided Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% 48% 8% with Blaine Luetkemeyer Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) Undecided Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 43% 50% 7% with Todd Richardson Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Todd Richardson (R) Undecided Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 43% 48% 9% with Eric Schmitt Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Eric Schmitt (R) Undecided Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 45% 49% 6% with Jason Smith Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Claire McCaskill (D) Jason Smith (R) Undecided Missouri Scout/Remington (R) June 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 45% 48% 7%

Results[]

Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state.^[158] Despite McCaskill's loss, Missouri Democrats held the other statewide office that went up for election in this cycle, the office of Missouri State Auditor. Democratic incumbent state auditor Nicole Galloway, who had been appointed to the post in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon following a vacancy, won a full term in the 2018 State Auditor election.^[159]

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018^[160]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Josh Hawley	1,254,927	51.38%	+12.27
	Democratic	Claire McCaskill (incumbent)	1,112,935	45.57%	-9.24
	Independent	Craig O'Dear	34,398	1.41%	N/A
	Libertarian	Japheth Campbell	27,316	1.12%	-4.95
	Green	Jo Crain	12,706	0.52%	N/A
	Write-in		7	<0.01%	N/A
Total votes			2,442,289	100.00%	N/A
	Republican gain from Democratic

References[]

External links[]

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics

Official campaign websites

• Japheth Campbell (L) for Senate
• Jo Crain (G) for Senate
• Josh Hawley (R) for Senate
• Claire McCaskill (D) for Senate
• Craig O'Dear (I) for Senate