2019 New South Wales state election

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2019 New South Wales state election
← 2015 23 March 2019 2023 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party
 
Gladys Berejiklian (cropped).jpg
ALP
Leader Gladys Berejiklian Michael Daley
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 23 January 2017 10 November 2018
Leader's seat Willoughby Maroubra
Last election 54 seats 34 seats
Seats won 48 seats 36 seats
Seat change Decrease 6[a] Increase 2
Popular vote 1,892,816 1,516,143
Percentage 41.58% 33.31%
Swing Decrease 4.05 Decrease 0.77
TPP 52.02% 47.98%
TPP swing Decrease 2.30 Increase 2.30
  Third party Fourth party
 
Greens placeholder-01.png
SFF
Leader No leader Robert Borsak
Party Greens Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
Leader's seat Legislative Council
Last election 3 seats 0 seats
Seats won 3 seats 3 seats[b]
Seat change Steady Increase 3
Popular vote 435,401 157,636
Percentage 9.57% 3.46%
Swing Decrease 0.72 Increase 3.46
New South Wales Election 2019 - Vote Strength.svg
The top map shows the first party preference by electorate. The bottom map shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.
Premier before election

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal/National coalition

Premier after election

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal/National coalition

The 2019 New South Wales state election was held on Saturday 23 March 2019 to elect the 57th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The two-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Deputy Premier John Barilaro was re-elected to a third four-year term with a reduced majority in the Legislative Assembly, where government is formed. The main Opposition Labor Party under Michael Daley won an increased share of the vote in most districts, though the party was unable to successfully gain support in key marginal electorates. Minor parties the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, as well as several independent MPs, also contested the election.

ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for the Coalition at about 8:15pm, over two hours after the 6:00pm close of polling booths.[1] However, it took a further two full days of official vote counting by the electoral commission before the ABC election computer was able to project that the Coalition had retained majority government.[2] Ultimately, the Coalition won 48 seats (35 Liberal, 13 National), suffering a loss of six seats from the 2015 election, providing the incumbent government with a slim two-seat majority. The Labor Party won 36 seats, an increase of two seats. Labor, and to a larger extent the Coalition, both suffered primary vote swings against them. Minor parties the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers each won three seats, and they were joined on the crossbench by three independents.[3]

In the Legislative Council, 21 seats were up for election. The Coalition won eight seats, Labor seven, the Greens and One Nation each picked up two seats, whilst the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and Animal Justice Party claimed one seat each.[4] One Nation's lead candidate Mark Latham, who led the Labor Party to defeat at the 2004 federal election, was elected to the Council.[4] In total the Coalition held 17 seats, Labor 14 and crossbenchers of other parties held 11.[4] The result left the Berejiklian Government needing at least five votes to pass legislation, up from the two they needed in the previous Council.[4]

It was the first time that the Coalition won a third consecutive term in office in New South Wales since the 1971 state election. Berejiklian became the first woman to lead a party to a state election victory in New South Wales, as well as the third woman to lead a party to a victory at a state election in Australia (after Queensland's Anna Bligh and Annastacia Palaszczuk) and the first non-Labor woman to do so.[5][6]

Daley had initially indicated that he would stay on as leader despite the loss. However, facing the prospect of a leadership spill, Daley announced several days after the election that he would stand down as leader and not contest a subsequent leadership election, to be held after the federal election in May. Deputy leader Penny Sharpe served as interim leader of the party in the intervening period.[7] That leadership election was subsequently held, and Strathfield MP Jodi McKay was elected as Labor Party Leader, against Kogarah MP Chris Minns.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Results[]

Legislative Assembly[]

Main articles: Results of the 2019 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly) and Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election
Winning party by electorate
Government (48)
  Liberal (35)
  Nationals (13)

Opposition (36)
  Labor (36)

Crossbench (9)
  Greens (3)
  Shooters (3)
  Independent (3)[c]
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout 89.43% (CV) – Informal 3.46%[8][9]
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Coalition
  Liberal 1,456,010 31.99 −3.10 35 Decrease 2
  National 436,806 9.60 −0.95 13 Decrease 4
Coalition total 1,892,816 41.58 −4.05 48 Decrease 6
  Labor 1,516,143 33.31 −0.77 36 Increase 2
  Greens 435,401 9.57 −0.72 3 Steady
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 157,636 3.46 +3.46 3 Increase 3
  Sustainable Australia 69,831 1.53 +1.53 0 Steady
  Keep Sydney Open 69,076 1.52 +1.52 0 Steady
  Animal Justice 68,802 1.51 +1.39 0 Steady
  One Nation 49,948 1.10 +1.10 0 Steady
  Christian Democratic 36,575 0.80 −2.31 0 Steady
  Conservatives 22,590 0.50 +0.50 0 Steady
  Liberal Democrats 10,530 0.23 +0.23 0 Steady
  Small Business 3,355 0.07 +0.07 0 Steady
  Socialist Alliance 1,208 0.03 −0.05 0 Steady
  Flux 698 0.02 +0.02 0 Steady
  Independents 217,277 4.77 +0.43 3 Increase 1
Total 4,551,886 93
Two-party-preferred vote[10]
  Coalition 2,053,185 52.02 −2.30
  Labor 1,893,618 47.98 +2.30

Compared with results from 2015 election.

Popular vote
Labor
 
 33.31%
Liberal
 
 31.99%
National
 
 9.60%
Greens
 
 9.57%
SFF
 
 3.46%
Independents
 
 4.77%
Other
 
 7.30%
Two-party-preferred vote
Coalition
 
 52.02%
Labor
 
 47.98%
Parliamentary seats
Coalition
 
 48
Labor
 
 36
Greens
 
 3
SFF
 
 3
Independents
 
 3
Seats changing hands[11]
Seat 2015 election Swing 2019 election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Barwon National Kevin Humphries 12.88 19.49 6.60 Roy Butler SFF
Coogee Liberal Bruce Notley-Smith 2.92 4.56 1.64 Marjorie O'Neill Labor
Lismore National Thomas George 0.23 1.57 1.35 Janelle Saffin Labor
Murray National Austin Evans 22.65* 26.19 3.54 Helen Dalton SFF
*At the 2017 Murray by-election, while the Nationals retained the seat on a 3.3-point margin
despite a very large swing, their 22.7-point margin in 2015 is used for swing calculations.

Note: At the 2016 Orange and 2018 Wagga Wagga by-elections, the remaining two of the six total seats
lost by the Coalition since 2015 occurred from even larger swings, both won by two new crossbenchers.

Post-election pendulum[]

Government seats
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB v ALP 0.5
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB v ALP 1.3
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT v IND 2.0
Upper Hunter Michael Johnsen NAT v ALP 2.6
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB v ALP 3.3
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB v ALP 3.5
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT v ALP 5.0
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB v ALP 5.0
Wollondilly Nathaniel Smith LIB v IND 5.5
Fairly safe
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB v ALP 6.3
Seven Hills Mark Taylor LIB v ALP 6.4
Bega Andrew Constance LIB v ALP 6.9
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB v ALP 7.6
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB v ALP 9.0
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT v ALP 9.2
Safe
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT v IND 10.3
Oatley Mark Coure LIB v ALP 10.5
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB v ALP 10.6
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB v ALP 10.6
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB v IND 11.1
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB v ALP 11.3
Monaro John Barilaro NAT v ALP 11.6
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB v ALP 12.0
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB v ALP 12.3
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB v ALP 12.4
Manly James Griffin LIB v GRN 12.9
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB v ALP 14.3
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT v ALP 14.5
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB v ALP 14.6
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT v ALP 14.9
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB v ALP 15.0
Albury Justin Clancy LIB v ALP 16.0
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB v ALP 16.3
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB v ALP 17.5
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT v ALP 17.9
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB v ALP 18.7
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB v GRN 19.3
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB v ALP 19.6
Very safe
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT v ALP 20.3
Ku-ring-gai Alister Henskens LIB v ALP 20.5
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB v GRN 20.8
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB v ALP 21.0
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB v ALP 21.0
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT v IND 21.1
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB v ALP 24.7
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB v GRN 25.2
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT v ALP 27.1
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT v ALP 32.8
Non-government seats
Marginal
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP v NAT 1.3
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP v LIB 1.6
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP v LIB 1.8
Strathfield Jodi McKay ALP v LIB 5.0
The Entrance David Mehan ALP v LIB 5.2
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP v LIB 5.7
Fairly safe
Londonderry Prue Car ALP v LIB 6.5
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP v LIB 7.3
Granville Julia Finn ALP v LIB 7.6
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP v LIB 8.5
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP v LIB 9.1
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP v LIB 9.5
Safe
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP v LIB 10.6
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP v LIB 10.7
Wyong David Harris ALP v LIB 12.4
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP v LIB 12.4
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP v IND 12.9
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP v LIB 13.0
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP v LIB 13.2
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP v LIB 13.8
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP v LIB 14.8
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP v LIB 14.9
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP v LIB 15.1
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP v LIB 16.4
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP v LIB 16.7
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP v LIB 17.0
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP v LIB 17.7
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP v LIB 17.7
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP v LIB 17.9
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP v LIB 18.3
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP v NAT 19.3
Keira Ryan Park ALP v LIB 19.7
Very safe
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP v LIB 21.4
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP v LIB 22.3
Lakemba Jihad Dib ALP v LIB 22.4
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP v LIB 25.4
Crossbench seats
Murray Helen Dalton SFF v NAT 3.5
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN v NAT 5.4
Barwon Roy Butler SFF v NAT 6.6
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN v ALP 10.0
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND v LNP 11.8
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN v ALP 13.8
Orange Philip Donato SFF v NAT 15.2
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND v NAT 15.5
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND v ALP 22.1

Legislative Council[]

Main article: Results of the 2019 New South Wales state election (Legislative Council)
Government (17)
  Liberal (11)
  National (6)

Opposition (14)
  Labor (14)

Crossbench (11)
  Greens (3)
  One Nation (2)
  Animal Justice (2)
  Shooters (2)
  Christian Democrats (1)
  Independent (1)[d]


Legislative Council (STV) – Quota 202,325 – Turnout 90.16% (CV) – Informal 6.35%[12][13]
Party Votes % Swing 2019 seats 2015 seats Total seats Change
  Coalition
  Liberal/National joint ticket 1,530,542 34.39 −7.91
  Liberal 16,117 0.37 +0.10 5 6 11 Decrease 2
  National 3,092 0.06 +0.00 3 3 6 Decrease 1
Coalition total 1,549,751 34.82 −7.80 8 9 17 Decrease 3
  Labor 1,321,449 29.69 −1.40 7 7 14 Increase 2
  Greens 432,999 9.73 −0.19 2 2 4[e] Decrease 1
  One Nation 306,933 6.90 +6.90 2 0 2 Increase 2
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 246,477 5.54 +1.65 1 1 2 Steady
  Christian Democratic 101,328 2.28 −0.65 0 1 1 Decrease 1
  Liberal Democrats 96,999 2.18 +2.18 0 0 0 Steady
  Animal Justice 86,713 1.95 +0.17 1 1 2 Increase 1
  Keep Sydney Open 81,508 1.83 +1.83 0 0 0 Steady
  Sustainable Australia 65,102 1.46 +1.46 0 0 0 Steady
  Voluntary Euthanasia 46,971 1.06 +0.11 0 0 0 Steady
  Small Business 30,409 0.68 +0.68 0 0 0 Steady
  Conservatives 26,303 0.59 +0.59 0 0 0 Steady
  Flux 16,212 0.36 +0.36 0 0 0 Steady
  Socialist Alliance 13,194 0.32 +0.12 0 0 0 Steady
  Group L 11,793 0.26 +0.26 0 0 0 Steady
  Group G 6,543 0.15 +0.15 0 0 0 Steady
  Advance Australia 3,928 0.09 −0.84[f] 0 0 0 Steady
  Group S 3,207 0.07 +0.07 0 0 0 Steady
  Group H 322 0.01 +0.01 0 0 0 Steady
  Ungrouped 2,005 0.05 +0.02 0 0 0 Steady
 Total 4,451,146 21 21 42


Background[]

See also: 2015 New South Wales state election

Lower house and by-elections[]

See also: Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

At the 2015 election, the Coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. In the course of the previous parliamentary term, the Coalition had been reduced to 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that resulted in the departure of eight MPs from the Liberal Party. The Labor Party gained 11 seats at the election, for a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats whilst independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained their seats.

Several by-elections were held after the 2015 election. In most of these, the party holding the seat did not change. There were two exceptions to this. In the 2016 Orange by-election, Philip Donato of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party won the seat, previously held by the Nationals. In the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election, independent candidate Joe McGirr won the seat, previously held by the Liberal Party.

Upper house[]

The 2015 election saw the incumbent Liberal/National coalition gain one seat in the Legislative Council to have a total of 20 seats, despite a 5.1-point swing against them. The Labor Party lost two seats, bringing their total down to 12; the Greens, Shooters and Fishers, and Christian Democrats saw no gains or losses in the election: these parties won five seats, two seats and two seats, respectively. The only gain came from the Animal Justice Party.

Campaign[]

See also: Candidates of the 2019 New South Wales state election

The Liberal Party campaign was launched by Premier Gladys Berejiklian on 10 March. The event was attended by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, former Prime Minister John Howard, and former New South Wales Premiers Mike Baird, Barry O'Farrell, John Fahey, and Nick Greiner. Berejiklian announced that, if re-elected, the government would spend $2 billion over four years to construct two new metro rail lines: one from the Sydney CBD to Parramatta and one from St Marys station to the planned Western Sydney Airport. She also pledged to build or upgrade 29 hospitals and clinics state-wide, including redevelopments of the Bankstown Lidcombe Hospital and John Hunter Hospital at a cost of $1.3 billion and $780 million, respectively. Another $917 million was pledged for the construction of eight new schools and the upgrade of 31 others. Another $120 million is to be spent expanding before and after school care to "ensure that every public primary school student in NSW can access before and after school care from 7 am to 6 pm."[14]

The Labor Party campaign was launched by Opposition Leader Michael Daley on 10 March. The event was attended by federal Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten, as well as former New South Wales Premiers Kristina Keneally, Bob Carr, and Barrie Unsworth. Daley committed to spending $2.7 billion over ten years to fund public schools, recruiting 5,000 new teachers and aiming to make New South Wales the first state to commit to the Gonski school funding model. $250 million was pledged in funding for mental health care, with Daley stating that Labor will hire more nurses in mental health wards and introduce nurse-to-patient ratios. Labor also committed to banning conversion therapy and decriminalization of abortion and also to have abortion performed within public hospitals if elected.[15] A $1 billion water fund was announced for the purpose of upgrading water infrastructure and protecting the water supply of regional communities, particularly in times of drought.[16][17]

On 19 March, a September 2018 video surfaced in which opposition leader Daley made negative comments about Asian immigration in Sydney: "Our young children will flee and who are they being replaced with? They are being replaced by young people from typically Asia with PhDs... So there's a transformation happening in Sydney now where our kids are moving out and foreigners are moving in and taking their jobs."[18][19] Daley apologised for his comments, stating "What I was referring to was housing affordability in Sydney ... I could've expressed myself better, no offence was meant."[20] Despite the apology after the video's release the controversy dogged Mr Daley and Labor until the end of the campaign. The video is suggested to have ultimately cost Labor potential victory in a number of key seats in Sydney with large proportions of voters from Asian backgrounds, and was also likely held back until it would be politically most beneficial to the incumbent government.[21]

Labor's preference deals with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party was criticised by Premier Berejiklian, who suggested that a Labor government supported by the Shooters could lead to looser gun laws.[22] Daley responded by pledging to resign from parliament if gun laws were changed, even if the measures were passed by the Coalition.[23]

In light of the National Party's preference deal with the Liberal Democrats, Labor leader Daley accused Berejiklian of hypocrisy for criticising Labor's preference deals with the Shooters Party while her own coalition partner offered preferences to the Liberal Democrats, whose platform includes even more extreme positions on gun laws than the Shooters.[24] Berejiklian stated that the deal was not comparable as it only concerned the upper house, and would not affect government formation, which occurs in the lower house.[25]

Issues[]

The incumbent Liberal government planned to continue with the demolition of the Sydney Football Stadium and, if re-elected, to replace it with a new $730 million venue.[26] The Labor Party oppose the demolition.[27] The issue was thrust into the limelight by Peter FitzSimons, a local media figure, who remarked that he believed that the Government would not win the election unless they cancelled the stadium rebuild. Michael Daley seized on the apparent popularity of the anti-stadium movement to call the election a "referendum on stadiums", as well as touring a "campaign bus" with the slogan "Schools & Hospitals Before Stadiums" on the side.

On 9 March, Labor unveiled its plan for a "war on waste", seeking to ban single-use plastic bags, phase out single-use plastic, and reduce waste and create jobs by investing $140 million in recycling initiatives.[28]

Pauline Hanson's One Nation under the leadership of Mark Latham ran on a platform which opposed immigration, congestion, overdevelopment and renewable power, and proposed DNA tests for Aboriginal welfare recipients[29] and banning the burqa in government buildings.[30]

Debates[]

The first debate of the campaign was held on 8 March on the ABC. It featured Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Opposition Leader Michael Daley, and was moderated by Brigid Glanville.[31] Subjects discussed included the demolition of the Sydney Football Stadium, cost of living in Sydney, transportation, infrastructure, and the Murray–Darling basin. In their final remarks, Berejiklian pledged to continue the current course and finish pending projects, while Daley emphasised his commitment to regional voters and promised assistance for dairy farmers.[32]

A second debate was held on 20 March on Sky News featuring Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Opposition Leader Michael Daley, moderated by David Speers. An audience of 100 undecided voters asked questions to the two leaders. Issues discussed included stadium funding, climate change, domestic violence, TAFE funding, the M4 motorway toll. When questioned on Labor's planned TAFE funding increase, Daley struggled to provide a precise figure before openly blurting out a figure of $3 billion, which drew laughter from the audience and an immediate "No!" from the Premier. The actual figure was only $74 million. Berejiklian was also unable to clarify whether motorists would be charged a toll to travel on the M4 from Parramatta to Penrith. The audience were subsequently asked who they were more inclined to vote for after the debate. 50 favoured Berejiklian, while 25 favoured Daley; a further 25 were undecided.[33][34]

Preferences[]

In February 2019, it was reported that Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation sent preferences each other's way in the upper house.[35]

Labor leader Michael Daley said the party's head office, instead of the leader's, would decide preference deals on a "seat-by-seat basis". While refusing to rule out Labor dealing with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Daley said Labor would not accept a preference deal with One Nation "because they are a racist party".[22]

The National Party made preference deals with the Liberal Democrats and Christian Democratic Party in the Legislative Council, suggesting that voters give them second and third preferences respectively.[24]

Registered parties[]

18 parties were registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[36] All eighteen parties nominated candidates for election to the Legislative Council.[37]

Retiring MPs[]

The seat of Wollondilly was vacated following the resignation of Liberal MP Jai Rowell on 17 December 2018.[38]

Members who chose not to renominate for the 2019 election were as follows:

Labor[]

Liberal[]

  • Greg Aplin MP (Albury) – announced 1 August 2018[41]
  • Glenn Brookes MP (East Hills) – announced 4 August 2018[42]
  • Pru Goward MP (Goulburn) – announced 19 December 2018[43]
  • Chris Patterson MP (Camden) – announced 28 September 2018[44]
  • David Clarke MLC – announced retirement September 2018[45]
  • Scot MacDonald MLC – announced 12 November 2018[46]

Nationals[]

  • Andrew Fraser MP (Coffs Harbour) – announced 14 June 2018[47]
  • Thomas George MP (Lismore) – announced 30 June 2017[48]
  • Troy Grant MP (Dubbo) – announced 12 July 2018[49]
  • Kevin Humphries MP (Barwon) – announced 1 June 2017[50]
  • Rick Colless MLC – did not nominate for endorsement

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers[]

  • Robert Brown MLC – lost preselection 5 February 2019[51]

Date[]

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[52] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Key dates[]

Key dates for the election were:[53]

  • 25 February: Lodgment of nominations opened
  • 1 March: Legislative Assembly expired
  • 4 March: Issue of Writs
  • 6 March: Close of nominations
  • 11 March: Early voting began
  • 23 March: Election day (polls opened 8am to 6pm)
  • 27 March: Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • 3 April: Estimated Legislative Assembly declaration of results
  • 12 April: Estimated Legislative Council declaration of results

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A local regression trend is shown in a solid line.

Voting intention[]

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
23 March 2019 Galaxy (Exit Poll) [54] 41% 36% 9% 14% 50% 50%
22 March 2019 Newspoll[55] 41% 35% 10% 14% 51% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[56] 41% 38% 9% 1% 10%[g] 50% 50%
10 March 2019 Newspoll[57] 40% 36% 10% 5% 9% 50% 50%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[58][59] 35.7% 34.1% 9.6% 5.6% 10.4%[h] 49% 51%
18 February 2019 Essential[58] 39% 36% 9% 8% 9% 49% 51%
30 January 2019 Newspoll[60] 39% 36% 10% 6% 9% 50% 50%
29–30 November 2018 YouGov–Galaxy[61] 37% 39% 9% 8% 15% 48% 52%
29 November 2018* Fairfax–ReachTEL[62] 36.5% 34.1% 9.6% 7.5% 16.6% 49% 51%
10 November 2018 Michael Daley succeeds Luke Foley as leader of the Labor Party
7 November 2018 Mark Latham is named as leader of One Nation NSW
10 September 2018* Fairfax–ReachTEL[63] 35.1% 31.5% 10.5% 4.2% 17.3% 50% 50%
15 March 2018 Fairfax–ReachTEL[64] 41.9% 32.5% 9.4% 5.1% 10% 52% 48%
6 March 2018 Newspoll 38% 34% 11% 17% 50% 50%
October–December 2017 Essential[65] 40% 39% 9% 12% 49% 51%
5 October 2017 Fairfax–ReachTEL[66] 37.6% 31% 9.1% 22.3% 52% 48%
February–March 2017 Newspoll[67] 40% 34% 10% 16% 51% 49%
23 January 2017 Gladys Berejiklian becomes Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
19 January 2017 Fairfax–ReachTEL[68] 42.7% 28% 8.4% 20.9% 55% 45%
18 January 2017 Mike Baird announces resignation as Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
December 2016 Fairfax–ReachTEL[69] 40.6% 32.4% 8% 19% 53% 47%
October 2016 Roy Morgan[70] 37% 31.5% 14% 17.5% 48.5% 51.5%
August–September 2016 Newspoll[71] 42% 36% 11% 11% 51% 49%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[72] 39% 30.5% 13% 17.5% 50.5% 49.5%
27 August 2016 Fairfax–ReachTEL[73] 39.4% 34.9% 8% 9.6% 50% 50%
May 2016 Roy Morgan[74] 46% 29% 17% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[75] 46% 27% 15.5% 11.5% 55% 45%
29 January–1 February 2016 Roy Morgan[76] 52% 24.5% 14.5% 9% 59.5% 40.5%
4–7 December 2015 Roy Morgan[77] 52% 22.5% 15% 10.5% 60.5% 39.5%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan[78] 54% 24.5% 13.5% 8% 60.5% 39.5%
September 2015 Newspoll[79] 47% 33% 11% 9% 56% 44%
28–31 August 2015 Roy Morgan[80] 49%* 25% 17.5% 8.5% 57% 43%
25 June 2015 Roy Morgan[81] 49.5%* 27.5% 14% 9% 57% 43%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan[82] 53.5%* 29.5% 12% 5% 58.5% 41.5%
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan[83] 47.5%* 31.0% 12.5% 9.0% 54.5% 45.5%
28 March 2015 election 35.1% 10.5% 34.1% 10.3% 9.9% 54.3% 45.7%
23–26 March 2015 Newspoll[84] 35% 9% 34% 11% 11% 55% 45%[85]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[86]
  • The ReachTEL poll on 10 September 2018 includes 5.9% of undecided voters.
  • The ReachTEL poll on 29 November 2018 includes 3.1% of undecided voters.
  • The YouGov-Galaxy poll on 28–29 November 2018 includes 5% of undecided voters.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction[]

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Berejiklian Daley
Berejiklian Daley Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
22 March 2019 Newspoll 43% 35% 43% 42% 32% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[87] 38% 36% not asked
10 March 2019 Newspoll[57] 41% 34% 44% 38% 37% 38%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[58][59] 46.7% 53.3% not asked
10 November 2018 Daley replaces Foley as Opposition Leader Berejiklian Foley Berejiklian Foley
10 September 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL 49.8% 50.2% not asked
6 March 2018 Newspoll 43% 25% not asked
15 March 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL 52.3% 47.7% not asked
5 October 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL 52.1% 47.9% not asked
February–March 2017 Newspoll 43% 21% 44% 21% 32% 36%
23 January 2017 Berejiklian replaces Baird as Premier Baird Foley Baird Foley
December 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL 50.6% 49.4% not asked
October 2016 Roy Morgan 52.5% 47.5% not asked
29 September 2016 Newspoll 42% 24% 39% 46% 32% 39%
27 August 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL 48.7% 51.3% not asked
29 Jan – 1 February 2016 Roy Morgan 72% 28% not asked
4–7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan 72.5% 27.5% not asked
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan 74.5% 25.5% not asked
September 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 63% 24% 35% 37%
25 June 2015 Roy Morgan 70% 30% not asked
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan 70.5% 29.5% not asked
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan 68% 32% not asked
28 March 2015 election – – – – – – –
23–26 Mar 2015 Newspoll 54% 27% 57% 29% 38% 37%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian[86]

Newspaper endorsements[]

Sunday editions[]

Newspaper Endorsement
The Sun-Herald Coalition[88]
Sunday Telegraph Coalition[89]
The Australian Financial Review Coalition[90]
The Australian Coalition[91]
The Sydney Morning Herald Coalition[92]
The Daily Telegraph Coalition[93]
Green Left Weekly Socialist Alliance[94]
Red Flag Socialist Alliance &
Greens[95]

The Sunday newspapers both endorsed the Liberal/National Party Coalition over the Labor Party.

The Sun-Herald described Berejiklian's Coalition Government as "solid and safe custodians, and—despite eight years in power and two relatively orderly leadership transitions—there is no particular sense that the Coalition has worn out its welcome". While highlighting her strengths in infrastructure and economic management, it warned that "the electorate tends to respond to a leader who can articulate a more uplifting vision". It contrasted this against Daley, where "questions linger over whether he and his team are ready to govern, partly because of how recently he was thrust into the job, partly because of past connections to tainted figures in the last Labor government and partly of his own making".[88]

The Sunday Telegraph pointed out that despite having commenced many large scale infrastructure projects "the problem for the Government is that nothing is quite finished yet". Despite this, it singled out the Labor Opposition for not having "done enough to atone for the sins of its recent history" of corruption. It called for stability of leadership after a decade of instability, recommending to voters that they "should give the Government the opportunity to see through the transformation of our state".[89]

Weekday editions[]

All four weekday newspapers endorsed the Liberal/National Party Coalition over the Labor Party.[96]

Alternative newspapers[]

The Green Left Weekly endorsed Socialist Alliance.[94] The Red Flag endorsed voting for both Socialist Alliance and the Greens.[95]

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Compared with results at 2015 election. The Coalition held 51 seats at the dissolution of parliament following the Orange and Wagga Wagga by-elections and early retirement of Jai Rowell, MP for Wollondilly.
  2. ^ Compared with results at 2015 election. SFF held 1 seat at the dissolution of parliament following the Orange by-election.
  3. ^ Current independent MLAs: Alex Greenwich (Sydney), Joe McGirr (Wagga Wagga) and Greg Piper (Lake Macquarie)
  4. ^ The current independent MLC is Justin Field, who was elected as a member of the Greens in 2016 following the death of John Kaye MLC, but left the party in April 2019.
  5. ^ This figure includes Justin Field MLC, who was not up for election this year. He left the Greens to sit as an independent in April 2019, before the final composition of the Council was determined.
  6. ^ Combined vote totals of Building Australia and the Motorist Party, of which Advance Australia is a merger
  7. ^ 8% Other, 3% SFF
  8. ^ 5.8% Other, 4.6% SFF

References[]

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External links[]

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