2023 New South Wales state election
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All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.
Background[]
At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. At the election the Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.
The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee from the Liberals and Lismore from the Nationals.
The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.
Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.
Following a controversy surrounding koala policy, on 10 September 2020, Nationals leader John Barilaro announced his party would no longer support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. The Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 9:00am, 11 September 2020.[1] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.
On 1 October 2021, Gladys Berejiklian resigned as NSW premier pending an ICAC investigation.[2] New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[3]
Date[]
The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[4] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.
Redistribution[]
The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[5]
In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.[6]
The Labor-held district of Lakemba will be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney will be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[6]
A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[6]
- Mulgoa – to be renamed Badgerys Creek
- Baulkham Hills – to be renamed Kellyville
- Ku-ring-gai – to be renamed Wahroonga
- Seven Hills – to be renamed Winston Hills
The Liberal-held Heathcote will take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor seat.[7]
Current Seat | 2019 election | New Seat | 2021 redistribution | ||||||
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Party | Member | Margin | Party | Member | Margin* | ||||
Baulkham Hills | Liberal | David Elliott | 18.68 | Kellyville | Liberal | Notional | 23.1 | ||
Heathcote | Liberal | Lee Evans | 4.96 | Heathcote | Labor | Notional | 1.7 | ||
Ku-ring-gai | Liberal | Alister Henskens | 20.52 | Wahroonga | Liberal | Notional | 19.0 | ||
Lakemba | Labor | Jihad Dib | 22.42 | Abolished | |||||
New seat | Leppington | Labor | Notional | 1.5 | |||||
Mulgoa | Liberal | Tanya Davies | 10.13 | Badgerys Creek | Liberal | Notional | 9.7 | ||
Seven Hills | Liberal | Mark Taylor | 6.36 | Winston Hills | Liberal | Notional | 5.7 | ||
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results. |
Registered parties[]
17 parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[8]
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Electoral pendulum[]
This is a pre-2023 electoral pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[9] The major parties' margins do not include third parties.
Liberal/National seats (47) | |||
Marginal | |||
East Hills | Wendy Lindsay | LIB | 0.1% |
Upper Hunter | Dave Layzell[a] | NAT | 0.5%[b] |
Penrith | Stuart Ayres | LIB | 0.6% |
Goulburn | Wendy Tuckerman | LIB | 3.1% |
Tweed | Geoff Provest | NAT | 5.0% |
Winston Hills | Mark Taylor | LIB | 5.7% |
Fairly safe | |||
Holsworthy | Melanie Gibbons | LIB | 6.0% |
Riverstone | Kevin Conolly | LIB | 6.5% |
Parramatta | Geoff Lee | LIB | 6.5% |
Oatley | Mark Coure | LIB | 6.8% |
Bega | Andrew Constance | LIB | 6.9% |
Camden | Peter Sidgreaves | LIB | 7.3% |
Ryde | Victor Dominello | LIB | 8.9% |
Myall Lakes | Stephen Bromhead | NAT | 9.3% |
Badgerys Creek | Tanya Davies | LIB | 9.7% |
Safe | |||
South Coast | Shelley Hancock | LIB | 10.6% |
Coffs Harbour | Gurmesh Singh | NAT | 10.8% |
Epping | Dominic Perrottet | LIB | 11.3% |
Monaro | John Barilaro | NAT | 11.6% |
Kiama | Gareth Ward | LIB | 12.0% |
Terrigal | Adam Crouch | LIB | 12.3% |
Drummoyne | John Sidoti | LIB | 13.6% |
Wollondilly | Nathaniel Smith | LIB | 14.2% |
Miranda | Eleni Petinos | LIB | 14.4% |
Clarence | Chris Gulaptis | NAT | 14.5% |
Manly | James Griffin | LIB | 14.6% |
Lane Cove | Anthony Roberts | LIB | 14.7% |
Oxley | Melinda Pavey | NAT | 15.4% |
Albury | Justin Clancy | LIB | 15.9% |
Hawkesbury | Robyn Preston | LIB | 16.6% |
Hornsby | Matt Kean | LIB | 16.9% |
North Shore | Felicity Wilson | LIB | 17.8% |
Bathurst | Paul Toole | NAT | 17.9% |
Dubbo | Dugald Saunders | NAT | 18.1% |
Wahroonga | Alister Henskens | LIB | 19.0% |
Cronulla | Mark Speakman | LIB | 19.6% |
Port Macquarie | Leslie Williams | NAT | 20.1% |
Vaucluse | Gabrielle Upton | LIB | 20.6% |
Willoughby | Gladys Berejiklian | LIB | 20.7% |
Wakehurst | Brad Hazzard | LIB | 21.9% |
Pittwater | Rob Stokes | LIB | 22.4% |
Castle Hill | Ray Williams | LIB | 22.4% |
Kellyville | David Elliott | LIB | 23.1% |
Davidson | Jonathan O'Dea | LIB | 24.8% |
Cootamundra | Steph Cooke | NAT | 26.6% |
Tamworth | Kevin Anderson | NAT | 28.0% |
Northern Tablelands | Adam Marshall | NAT | 33.2% |
Labor seats (37) | |||
Marginal | |||
Kogarah | Chris Minns | ALP | 0.1% |
Leppington | new seat | ALP | 1.5% |
Heathcote | Lee Evans | LIB | 1.7% |
Lismore | Janelle Saffin | ALP | 2.0% |
Coogee | Marjorie O'Neill | ALP | 2.3% |
Londonderry | Prue Car | ALP | 3.0% |
Strathfield | Jodi McKay | ALP | 5.2% |
The Entrance | David Mehan | ALP | 5.3% |
Port Stephens | Kate Washington | ALP | 5.8% |
Fairly safe | |||
Gosford | Liesl Tesch | ALP | 7.1% |
Maroubra | Michael Daley | ALP | 8.3% |
Prospect | Hugh McDermott | ALP | 8.6% |
Granville | Julia Finn | ALP | 9.4% |
Safe | |||
Rockdale | Steve Kamper | ALP | 10.0% |
Swansea | Yasmin Catley | ALP | 10.6% |
Wyong | David Harris | ALP | 12.9% |
Charlestown | Jodie Harrison | ALP | 13.1% |
Blue Mountains | Trish Doyle | ALP | 13.6% |
Auburn | Lynda Voltz | ALP | 13.7% |
Maitland | Jenny Aitchison | ALP | 14.7% |
Macquarie Fields | Anoulack Chanthivong | ALP | 14.9% |
Canterbury | Sophie Cotsis | ALP | 15.3% |
Heffron | Ron Hoenig | ALP | 15.3% |
Campbelltown | Greg Warren | ALP | 16.0% |
Blacktown | Stephen Bali | ALP | 16.7% |
Fairfield | Guy Zangari | ALP | 16.8% |
Liverpool | Paul Lynch | ALP | 17.4% |
Newcastle | Tim Crakanthorp | ALP | 17.5% |
Keira | Ryan Park | ALP | 18.2% |
Shellharbour | Anna Watson | ALP | 18.4% |
Mount Druitt | Edmond Atalla | ALP | 18.5% |
Cabramatta | Nick Lalich | ALP | 19.3% |
Cessnock | Clayton Barr | ALP | 19.7% |
Bankstown | Tania Mihailuk | ALP | 20.5% |
Summer Hill | Jo Haylen | ALP | 21.9% |
Wollongong | Paul Scully | ALP | 22.9% |
Wallsend | Sonia Hornery | ALP | 25.8% |
Crossbench seats (9) | |||
Murray | Helen Dalton | SFF | 2.4% vs NAT |
Ballina | Tamara Smith | GRN | 4.9% vs NAT |
Barwon | Roy Butler | SFF | 6.6% vs NAT |
Balmain | Jamie Parker | GRN | 10.0% vs ALP |
Newtown | Jenny Leong | GRN | 11.4% vs ALP |
Sydney | Alex Greenwich | IND | 11.8% vs LIB |
Orange | Philip Donato | SFF | 15.2% vs NAT |
Wagga Wagga | Joe McGirr | IND | 15.5% vs NAT |
Lake Macquarie | Greg Piper | IND | 23.2% vs ALP |
Polling[]
Voting intention[]
Polling that is conducted under the Newspoll brand and published in The Australian is via random online selection by polling firm YouGov. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.
Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||||||
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LIB | NAT | ALP | GRN | SFF | ONP | OTH | UND | L/NP | ALP | ||
25 November 2021 | Resolve Strategic[10][c] | 41%* | 31% | 10% | 2% | – | 16% | – | N/A | ||
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier | |||||||||||
23 September 2021 | Resolve Strategic[11][d] | 41%* | 30% | 11% | 2% | – | 16% | – | N/A | ||
18 July 2021 | Resolve Strategic[12][e] | 43%* | 28% | 12% | 1% | – | 16% | – | N/A | ||
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition | |||||||||||
16 May 2021 | Resolve Strategic[13][f] | 44%* | 28% | 12% | 4% | – | 12% | – | N/A | ||
March 2021 | Redbridge[14][15][16] | 37.0% | 3.1% | 23.9% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 18.9% | 59% | 41%[17] |
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition | |||||||||||
23 March 2019 election | 32.0% | 9.6% | 33.3% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 11.0% | – | 52.0% | 48.0% | |
22 March 2019 | Newspoll | 41%* | 35% | 10% | – | – | 14% | – | 51% | 49%[g] | |
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. | |||||||||||
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[18] | |||||||||||
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Preferred Premier and satisfaction[]
Date | Firm | Better Premier | Perrottet | Minns | ||||
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Perrottet | Minns | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
25 November 2021 | Resolve Strategic[10] | 34% | 23% | not asked | not asked | |||
20–24 October 2021 | Essential[19] | not asked | 47% | 28% | not asked | |||
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier | Berejiklian | Minns | Berejiklian | Minns | ||||
23 September 2021 | Resolve Strategic[11] | 48% | 21% | not asked | not asked | |||
15–18 Sept 2021 | Newspoll[20] | not asked | 56% | 40% | not asked | |||
28 July 2021 | Utting Research[21] | not asked | 56% | 33% | not asked | |||
18 July 2021 | Resolve Strategic[12] | 55% | 16% | not asked | not asked | |||
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader | Berejiklian | McKay | Berejiklian | McKay | ||||
16 May 2021 | Resolve Strategic[13] | 57% | 17% | 50% | 17% | 13% | 21% | |
11–16 November 2020 | Essential[22] | not asked | 75% | 17% | not asked | |||
28 Oct–2 Nov 2020 | Essential[23] | not asked | 68% | 21% | not asked | |||
21–23 October 2020 | Ipsos[24][25] | 58% | 19% | 64% | 16% | 22% | 25% | |
14–19 October 2020 | Essential[26] | not asked | 67% | 22% | not asked | |||
16–17 October 2020 | YouGov[27] | not asked | 68% | 26% | not asked | |||
15–18 July 2020 | Newspoll[28] | not asked | 64% | 30% | not asked | |||
24���28 June 2020 | Newspoll[29] | not asked | 68% | 26% | not asked | |||
21–26 April 2020 | Newspoll[30] | not asked | 69% | 23% | not asked | |||
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader | Berejiklian | Daley | Berejiklian | Daley | ||||
23 March 2019 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
22 March 2019 | Newspoll | 43% | 35% | 43% | 42% | 32% | 49% | |
19 March 2019 | YouGov–Galaxy[31] | 38% | 36% | not asked | ||||
10 March 2019 | Newspoll[32] | 41% | 34% | 44% | 38% | 37% | 38% | |
10 March 2019 | UComms–ReachTEL[33][34] | 46.7% | 53.3% | not asked | ||||
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". † Participants were forced to choose. | ||||||||
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[18] |
References[]
- ^ Stuart, Riley; Mayers, Lily (10 September 2020). "Koala bill causes NSW Government crisis as Gladys Berejiklian warns John Barilaro Nationals ministers will be booted from cabinet". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. No. ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ Nguyen, Kevin (2021-10-01). "Live: 'Couldn't come at a worse time': Premier's bombshell amid 'darkest days in state's history'". ABC News. Retrieved 2021-10-01.
- ^ "Dominic Perrottet sworn in as the youngest ever NSW premier - everything you need to know". 7NEWS. 2021-10-05. Retrieved 2021-10-07.
- ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
- ^ "Report of the Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel on the draft determination of the names and boundaries of electoral districts of New South Wales" (PDF). New South Wales Electoral Commission. November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
- ^ a b c "Names and boundaries of electoral districts". www.elections.nsw.gov.au. NSWEC. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
- ^ Green, Antony. "NSW State Redistribution Finalised". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
- ^ "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
- ^ "NSW State Redistribution Finalised". Antony Green's Election Blog. August 26, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Broad support for assisted dying ahead of vote on controversial bill". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2021-11-25.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Two-thirds of people support NSW opening at 70 per cent vaccination". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2021-09-23.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Voters question speed of lockdown but Berejiklian still popular". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2021-07-22.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Berejiklian preferred premier among Labor voters: poll". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2021-05-18.
- ^ O'Keefe, Chris (14 March 2021). "'Ten wasted years': NSW Labor polls just 23.9 per cent of primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald.
- ^ Samaras, Kos. "Libs 37, Labor 23.9, Nats 3.1, 4.3 PHON, SFFP 0.8, Greens 6.7, Indi 5.3, 18.9 not sure. Weighted to ABS". Twitter.
- ^ Bonham, Kevin (15 March 2021). "AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low".
- ^ TPP estimate by Kevin Bonham: "AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low". 15 March 2021.
- ^ a b "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2015-02-27. Retrieved 2019-06-02.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 25 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021.
- ^ "Newspoll: Gap closes on lifting coronavirus restrictions". The Australian. The Australian. 20 September 2020.
- ^ Coorey, Phillip. "Berejiklian beats PM in poll – but Chant is the real winner". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 2021-07-30.
- ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
- ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 3 November 2020. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
- ^ "NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian still has support of majority of voters despite revelation: Exclusive poll". 9News.com.au. Nine News. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
- ^ "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. The Sydney Morning Herald. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
- ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. 19 October 2020. Retrieved 2020-10-20.
- ^ "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Daily Telegraph. 18 October 2020. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
- ^ "Newspoll: Daniel Andrews caught in voters' crossfire over COVID-19". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
- ^ "Andrews' halo slips: Newspoll". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
- ^ Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
- ^ "Sydney news: Poll reveals NSW election remains deadlocked, police make fresh murder appeal". Retrieved 20 March 2019.
- ^ "NSW election set to be close". Retrieved 11 March 2019.
- ^ Tovey, Josephine (2019-02-17). "Essential poll shows one in four NSW voters opting for minor parties". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2019-02-18.
- ^ Smith, Alexandra (9 March 2019). "Sentiment may seem clear but NSW is still the Coalition's to lose". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
- Elections in New South Wales
- March 2023 events in Australia
- New South Wales Legislative Council
- 2023 elections in Australia
- 2020s in New South Wales